Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[atyy]

Prof Rudo Mathiva (head of ICU at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa) says they have to persuade more young people (young 20s - late 30s) to get vaccinated, as they are seeing more young Covid patients in hospital (65% unvaccinated, 35% partially vaccinated).

 

[atyy]

So why aren't we locking down doughnut shops and legislating for sugars and fats? In fact, why do we not have government mandated rationing of foods to deal with heart disease which is more than 4 times as lethal as Covid?

It seems to have done no harm but a lot of good for us here in UK in the post war years to have had rationing (yes, we did have several years of ongoing rationing after the war, and the long term health effects seem to have been profound).

The UK overall is in a decent position relative to say Germany, because its population immunity to Covid is very high. Nonetheless, the NHS is under pressure, which is why the government has been trying to roll out booster shots both to reduce severe illness among those already vaccinated, as well as to reduce transmission. The new variant is expected to escape anti-body neutralization quite a bit, so even if it doesn't increase severe disease too much in those who've recovered or been vaccinated, it will cause increased transmission of Covid (more reinfections of those who've had it, and more infections among vaccinated people). Since with more cases there will be hospitalizations, it makes sense for the UK government to take measures to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed (eg. make sure many more people are vaccinated and boosted before the variant arrives for winter).

Sajid Javid: measures to be reviewed in three weeks

 

[valenumr]

What is the relative individual medial threat from omicron? We see reports of cases that imply high transmission rates but little solid evidence on the severity of symptoms relative to delta infections on vaccinated or fully vaccinated hosts.

https://www.businessinsider.com/omicron-coronavirus-variant-cases-mild-south-africa-2021-11If it drives delta out with a much milder version of the virus the net result might be beneficial in the long term.

It's not driving Delta out. South Africa was at a very low point in terms of Covid transmission. They are seeing a "significant" increase in cases at present, with many of the cases reportedly omicron variant. But we're talking about an area with a 24 percent vaccination rate. It is hard to draw conclusions with little data, and the 5x transmission rate is sensationalism. There hasn't been enough time or data to make such a claim. I'll grab some informed links and follow up.

In any case, if omicron is as significant as the claims, well... 2022 is going to be a repeat.

 

[valenumr]

It's not driving Delta out. South Africa was at a very low point in terms of Covid transmission. They are seeing a "significant" increase in cases at present, with many of the cases reportedly omicron variant. But we're talking about an area with a 24 percent vaccination rate. It is hard to draw conclusions with little data, and the 5x transmission rate is sensationalism. There hasn't been enough time or data to make such a claim. I'll grab some informed links and follow up.

In any case, if omicron is as significant as the claims, well... 2022 is going to be a repeat.

 

[valenumr]

View attachment 293230

This is from a pretty good Twitter thread:

 

[valenumr]

It's not driving Delta out. South Africa was at a very low point in terms of Covid transmission. They are seeing a "significant" increase in cases at present, with many of the cases reportedly omicron variant. But we're talking about an area with a 24 percent vaccination rate. It is hard to draw conclusions with little data, and the 5x transmission rate is sensationalism. There hasn't been enough time or data to make such a claim. I'll grab some informed links and follow up.

In any case, if omicron is as significant as the claims, well... 2022 is going to be a repeat.

Another twitter thread (with cnn interview, sorry, it's not like there are a bunch of peer reviewed studies on the topic, and it's just hard to search on the internet, because it's everywhere):

 

[valenumr]

It's not driving Delta out. South Africa was at a very low point in terms of Covid transmission. They are seeing a "significant" increase in cases at present, with many of the cases reportedly omicron variant. But we're talking about an area with a 24 percent vaccination rate. It is hard to draw conclusions with little data, and the 5x transmission rate is sensationalism. There hasn't been enough time or data to make such a claim. I'll grab some informed links and follow up.

In any case, if omicron is as significant as the claims, well... 2022 is going to be a repeat.

And one more (why Twitter? I don't know... Sorry again). This one is out of my wheelhouse, but the general gist I read is that there isn't yet a reason to freak out wrt vaccines:

That being said, I think all the links I have post want to err on the side of caution, but at the end of the day, my opinion is we can only hope that we're not seeing this monster get to an r0 of 20 plus and evading our current vaccines. I don't think there is much we can do to really stop it if it does. For now I will just keep not trying to put myself at risk of exposure and hope for the best.

 

[Jarvis323]

I believe that immunity evasion of the Omicron variant is currently something predicted based on preliminary analysis of the mutations. The mutations are predicted to make the virus bind more strongly to the ACE2 receptors, and there are a very large number of mutations in the spike protein itself. It is also being predicted that natural immunity may offer better protection against the variant since natural immunity gives a better breadth of antibodies, while the vaccine targets only the spike protein.

This should be a wake up call that we may need to make vaccines with a broader set of target proteins. Currently, I worry more about the variants evolving in the deer population. Those variants will be the ones more likely to suddenly hit us and have high mortality rates. Right now, it would be good for us to be building more reliable broad spectrum immunity, so that we are not blind sided by unpredictable outcomes.

 

[valenumr]

I believe that immunity evasion of the Omicron variant is currently something predicted based on preliminary analysis of the mutations. The mutations are predicted to make the virus bind more strongly to the ACE2 receptors, and there are a very large number of mutations in the spike protein itself. It is also being predicted that natural immunity may offer better protection against the variant since natural immunity gives a better breadth of antibodies, while the vaccine targets only the spike protein.

This should be a wake up call that we may need to make vaccines with a broader set of target proteins. currently, I worry more about the variants evolving in the deer population. Those variants will be the ones more likely to suddenly hit us, evade our immune systems, and have high mortality rates. Right now, it would be good for us to be building more reliable broad spectrum immunity, so that we are not blind sided by unpredictable outcomes.

The fact that we have large animal reservoirs for this virus (cats, big cats, apes , minks (et al), deer?!, Etc) is a pretty big problem.

 

[artis]

Is this based on experience? Is this a knee-jerk reaction, i.e., an over-reaction or an appropriate response?

We would need to know the demographics of those infected, if they are vaccinated, and if they are hospitalized or end up dying.

I agree I think it is not of much value to speculate now , we just need to wait and see.

the Omicron variant can be tracked because it causes a failure in the RT-PCR test for the S gene of the virus.

This is interesting, so does the failure happen because the S has mutated enough to be unrecognizable for the test?

although homicides appear to have increased during the same period as Covid-19.

This is probably a hard to trace statistic but I think the overall psychological toll from Covid might end up being disastrous as it will only show in the long term.
Take all the people who died from it , then count the loved ones that were left with the tragedy of losing their relative, son, father, etc.
Children not being able to socialize etc etc.

 

[atyy]

It is also being predicted that natural immunity may offer better protection against the variant since natural immunity gives a better breadth of antibodies, while the vaccine targets only the spike protein.

That's not clear. For both infection and double vaccination, substantial protection against severe illness is expected to remain, because the RNA vaccines use a full length spike, which allows many epitopes (T cells, non-neutralizing antibodies) apart from those targeted by neutralizing antibodies. For neutralizing antibodies (the main mechanism by which infection is prevented), both infection and double vaccination are expected to be similarly hit. In one study looking at mutant spikes that allow a virus-mimic to enter cells, it was found that a spike with 20 mutations (polymutant) caused a nearly complete loss of neutralization by antibodies produced by infection or by double vaccination. However, infection followed by vaccination - hybrid immunity - was superior, and produced antibodies that neutralized the polymutant. Omicron's spike mutations have considerable similarity to the polymutant in that study. It remains an open question whether triple vaccination (booster) may generate neutralizing antibodies that resemble those of hybrid immunity in being resistant to mutations.

 

[cmb]

I responded in the context of SARS-Cov-2, which has had a relatively high mortality compared to other illnesses. If one is referring specifically to Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), then...

Thread title; "Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)"

So, yes that is what I was referring specifically to.

Forgive me, but I get the sense that there is an attempt to rubbish anyone trying to ask legitimate objective questions about the world's chaotic response to Covid.

We now have data in for over a year and we can see that all the many varied attempts to control this disease, from draconian military enforced lockdowns to laissez-faire approaches have yielded pretty much the same outcomes (across a stochastic spectrum) for case numbers and morbidity, so if I might please ask, on the basis of this hindsight, to be forgiven for thinking people don't seem to have much of a clue what they are doing trying to stop movement of this disease and much of the damage to personal freedoms and economics has had questionable benefit.

So the sooner the better we figure out if there is a good reason to seek particular steps to limit this particular variant, would you not agree?

 

[artis]

Could emergence of these variants be a consequence of our inability to treat the HIV/AIDS epidemic in these countries?

Well if the immunocompromised folks are sick for a long time before they either die or some of them survive then this might be true, it definitely sounds very plausible.

I am actually shocked by the numbers of HIV rate for South Africa that you quoted as I wasn't aware they are so high for that nation, I mean we know how HIV is transmitted... what the hell are they doing there to get to those numbers.
It might be a consequence of living conditions/poverty etc factors that drive folks to high and unsafe drug use, unsafe sexual practices etc.

 

[artis]

because the RNA vaccines use a full length spike

as far as I'm aware I think all Covid vaccines use the full length spike do they not?

We now have data in for over a year and we can see that all the many varied attempts to control this disease, from draconian military enforced lockdowns to laissez-faire approaches have yielded pretty much the same outcomes (across a stochastic spectrum) for case numbers and morbidity

There is so much data out there I cannot find or cite them all but I would agree with you somewhat. I can speak for my country and it seems that what the lockdowns helped do is to lower the spread so that the peak of the wave is more flattened rather than sharp and this is mostly done not because it decreases the overall death rate by much but it simply avoids the overloading of hospitals , because once you reach hospital capacity then the death rate climbs much faster because people in critical condition without the proper medical care are much more likely to die.

It's like a transformer driven into saturation the current then increases dramatically if I can borrow an electrical analogy.

So I think you are right the overall infection rate doesn't differ much whether one used lockdowns or not because Covid spreads mostly indoors and even in a lockdown people are still indoors and it's enough for just one to be sick or spread to then get the whole house sick.
Actually all the main spreading locations were indoors - schools, workplaces, houses and hospitals.
So I'd say the main benefit of the lockdown was and is to limit/flatten the peak, it cannot stop the overall virus and it has many adverse effects I think barely anyone would doubt that.PS. the only real lockdown that could have made a world of change was that at the very beginning , when China botched the initial response , the only real effect could have been right at the start to simply lockdown China both from within as well as to outside with 0 people allowed in or out.
Once that opportunity was missed then it was impossible to stop it later.

 

[Jarvis323]

It remains an open question whether triple vaccination (booster) may generate neutralizing antibodies that resemble those of hybrid immunity in being resistant to mutations.

I suppose. The booster will temporarily generate more neutralizing anti-bodies. So whatever the vaccine can offer in terms of protection will probably be maximized with the booster in the short term. But the vaccine and booster are outdated. It would be better to have an updated vaccine, although we won't have that in time to fight the coming waves. Then by the time we make an updated vaccine for the wave that just hit, we might end up right back where we are now with a new variant coming in that differs. And each time we go through this cycle, we roll the dice also in terms of how deadly the variant is. It is not impossible that a variant with a 30% death rate, like MERS, comes along one day, especially with the vast animal reservoirs. This is why vaccines with as narrow of a spectrum of protection as the current mRNA vaccines are not sustainable in a risk averse way. There has been promising research into potential for highly cross-reactive vaccines. I hope our funding gets spent wisely and that we don't go down a naive near sighted path like we seem to do with everything else.

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

First, Moderna has already tested a higher dose booster of mRNA-1273 (100 µg) in healthy adults.
...
Second, Moderna is already studying two multi-valent booster candidates in the clinic that were designed to anticipate mutations such as those that have emerged in the Omicron variant. The first candidate (mRNA-1273.211) includes several mutations present in the Omicron variant that were also present in the Beta variant of concern1. The Company has completed dosing in a potentially pivotal safety and immunogenicity study of mRNA-1273.211 at the 50 µg (N=300) and 100 µg (N=584) dose levels. A second multi-valent candidate (mRNA-1273.213) includes many of the mutations present in the Omicron variant that were also present in the Beta and Delta variants2. The Company has completed dosing at the 100 µg (N=584) dose level and also plans to explore the 50 µg dose level in approximately 584 participants. Moderna will rapidly expand testing of sera from completed and ongoing multi-valent booster studies to determine if these multi-valent candidates are able to provide superior neutralizing protection against Omicron.

Third, Moderna will rapidly advance an Omicron-specific booster candidate (mRNA-1273.529).
...

Source:
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2/

Related Moderna tests:

This is a study to evaluate the immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity of mRNA-1273.211, mRNA-1273, mRNA-1273.617.2, and mRNA-1273.213.

Source:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT04927065

AstraZeneca tests the Covid-19-vaccine AZD2816 based on the gene of the Beta variant:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04973449

BionTech tests the Covid-19-vaccine BNT162b2SA based on the gene of the Beta variant:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728

BionTech tests the Covid-19-multivariant vaccine BNT162b2 (B.1.1.7 + B.1.617.2) based on the genes of the Alpha and Delta variants:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05004181

 

[Jarvis323]

So the sooner the better we figure out if there is a good reason to seek particular steps to limit this particular variant, would you not agree?

You act as though there isn't a good reason to be highly concerned about this variant. There is a serious risk that we can deduce from its makeup. If the variant does turn out to evade vaccine induced immunity, then how many elderly and other people at higher risk will become suddenly vulnerable even though they've had the vaccine? Out of concern for those people, responsible/caring people should take the extra precautions, at least until we know it's safe. Remember slowing exponentiation growth is better done early. People need time to prepare.

At least people should be taking non-economy disturbing measures seriously. E.g. everyone who can breath sufficiently through one should be using n95, kn95, or kf94 masks when indoors in public.

 

[cmb]

You act as though there isn't a good reason to be highly concerned about this variant. There is a serious risk that we can deduce from its makeup. If the variant does turn out to evade vaccine induced immunity, then how many elderly and other people at higher risk will become suddenly vulnerable even though they've had the vaccine? Out of concern for those people, responsible/caring people should take the extra precautions, at least until we know it's safe. Remember slowing exponentiation growth is better done early. People need time to prepare.

At least people should be taking non-economy disturbing measures seriously. E.g. everyone who can breath sufficiently through one should be using n95, kn95, or kf94 masks when indoors in public.

You are misreading me, and I think the reason for that is that my view is balanced, neither over estimating risks nor underestimating risks. Most people are in one of those camps so I will always be perceived as 'in the other camp' by everyone!

Simply this; I am as concerned about over-reacting to this new variant as under-reacting to it. I do not fear for under-reactions at this time, that does not seem to be a concern given how people are reacting now.

 

[Jarvis323]

You are misreading me, and I think the reason for that is that my view is balanced, neither over estimating risks nor underestimating risks. Most people are in one of those camps so I will always be perceived as 'in the other camp' by everyone!

Simply this; I am as concerned about over-reacting to this new variant as under-reacting to it. I do not fear for under-reactions at this time, that does not seem to be a concern given how people are reacting now.

For me, it's not a thing you just balance out in terms of how much fear, or lack of fear, that people should have. It's a thing you Pareto-optimize in terms of measures you take. You could be someone with almost no concern, and it still makes sense to wear an n95 mask in public. It's about minimizing risk, while also minimizing cost.

 

[Astronuc]

Pfizer and Moderna are developing vaccines targeting Omicron.

https://www.businessinsider.com/pfizer-vaccine-update-100-days-omicron-variant-resistant-2021-11

"Pfizer and BioNTech have taken actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days in the event of an escape variant," the company said in a statement.

Pfizer expects to know within two weeks whether the variant is resistant to its current vaccine, a company spokesperson told Reuters.

"We expect more data from the laboratory tests in two weeks at the latest. These data will provide more information about whether B.1.1.529 could be an escape variant that may require an adjustment of our vaccine if the variant spreads globally," the spokesperson said.

Moderna and Johnson & Johnson are also preparing to respond to the Omicron's possible threat.

Moderna on Friday said it plans to test a variant-specific booster in the event that its current vaccine is found to be ineffective against the Omicron.

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/27/1059534796/covid-19-vaccine-makers-combat-omicron-variant

Vaccine makers are already pivoting their efforts to combat the new variant: testing higher doses of booster shots, designing new boosters that anticipate strain mutations, and developing omicron-specific boosters.

In a statement sent to NPR, Moderna said it has been working on a comprehensive strategy to predict variants of concern since the beginning of 2021. One approach is to double the current booster from 50 to 100 micrograms. Secondly, the vaccine maker has been studying two booster vaccines that are designed to anticipate mutations like those found in the omicron variant. The company also said it will ramp up efforts to make a booster candidate that specifically targets omicron.
. . . .

Pfizer and BioNTech told Reuters that it expects more data about the omicron variant to be collected within two weeks. That information will help determine whether or not they need to modify their current vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech said that a vaccine tailored for the omicron variant, if needed, could be ready to ship in approximately 100 days.

Johnson & Johnson said in a statement sent to NPR that it too is already testing its vaccine's efficacy against the new variant.

Pfizer and Moderna set to adapt to Omicron COVID variant
https://nypost.com/2021/11/27/vaccine-makers-set-to-adapt-for-omicron-covid-variant/I read an announcement that the governor of New York State has declared a health emergency due to the Omicron variant threat. I do not know what that means, i.e., what steps that state government plans to take. Ostensibly, some kind of mandate, e.g., 'wear a mask in public'?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-yo...ergency-to-combat-omicron-variant-11638039097
"Precautionary measure will allow hospitals to turn away patients seeking nonurgent care"

We'll have to watch for outbreaks of Omicron in regions near international airports.

 

[Astronuc]

Another twitter thread (with cnn interview, sorry, it's not like there are a bunch of peer reviewed studies on the topic, and it's just hard to search on the internet, because it's everywhere):

Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD, who has been on the front lines fighting Covid-19 infections in Houston, has credibility. Hotez is Professor: Departments of Pediatrics and Molecular Virology & Microbiology Baylor College of Medicine Houston, Texas, and Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine and Professor of Pediatrics and Molecular Virology & Microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine where he is also the Co-director of the Texas Children’s Center for Vaccine Development (CVD) and Texas Children’s Hospital Endowed Chair of Tropical Pediatrics.

I think it is premature to make definitive statements about the Omicron variant. According to the NY Times, "The variant was identified on Thursday by scientists in South Africa. So far the variant has been detected in South Africa and Botswana, as well as in a few travelers to Belgium, Britain, Germany, Israel, Italy and Hong Kong."

It may be somewhat more transmissible than Delta, or maybe the same. Symptomatically, it may or may not be worse than Delta, which is pretty bad (there were similar concerns about Gamma, Lambda and Mu, and they fizzled outside there original region). Vaccination should help, but to what extent? The companies provided vaccinations are working to adjust their vaccines for Omicron. Wearing masks in public, or in enclosed spaces frequented by the public, should still be effective.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/health/coronavirus-variant-tracker.html

Mutations that may help the Coronavirus spread
Mutation	Lineage	Status
D614G	B.1	Appeared in early 2020 and spread around the world.
N501Y	Several	A defining mutation in several lineages, including B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta) and P.1 (Gamma). Helps the virus bind more tightly to human cells.
E484K or “Eek”	Several	Appears in several lineages. May help the virus avoid some kinds of antibodies.
K417	Several	Appears in several lineages, including B.1.351 (Beta) and P.1 (Gamma). May help the virus bind more tightly to cells.
L452R	Several	Appears in several lineages, including B.1.617.2 (Delta).

International travelers should be vaccinated, and preferably tested before and after traveling, assuming international travel is not banned.https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/

Country Submission Count​

Country	Total #GR/484A (B.1.1.529)	#GR/484A (B.1.1.529) in past 4 weeks	%GR/484A (B.1.1.529) in past 4 weeks
South Africa	99	99	69.7
Botswana	19	19	18.6
Australia	2	2	0.1
Hong Kong	2	2	8.3
Italy	1	1	0.0
Israel	1	1	0.1
Belgium	1	1	0.0

 

[cmb]

For me, it's not a thing you just balance out in terms of how much fear, or lack of fear, that people should have. It's a thing you Pareto-optimize in terms of measures you take. You could be someone with almost no concern, and it still makes sense to wear an n95 mask in public. It's about minimizing risk, while also minimizing cost.

My main concern is inhibiting our freedoms that we've (apparently) fought for decades to ensure, then we just throw that away in the face of people saying 'ah, there is a common need for us all to lock ourselves away'.

We need to minimise that to the absolute minimum, there is no justification for exceeding a need to do what is adequate.

On the contrary, we have, as humans, been responsible for our own health since, well, forever, and people aren't generally so stupid that they ignore all risks. If you are concerned for a given infection risk, you avoid the situations likely to give you that.

This is why it's made no difference in countries like Sweden where there has been no enforcement ... because people wear masks and avoid situations without having to be told to do so.

I'm just asking what the risk actually is, if we know and if we don't we need to figure that out quickly to minimise the infringement on people's freedom and liberties.

It is right and proper for all thinking people who value freedom to be asking what is actually required, not to willingly accept a total over-kill impacting our liberties when it is not necessary. Therefore, to ask after the severity of this variant is the key question. Which is all I asked.

For as long as we don't know, then it is OK that we can take precautions, but to impose such precautions without also seeking an answer to that question as soon as possible is, in my view, very hypocritical and an infringement of liberties.

 

[Astronuc]

So far the variant has been detected in South Africa and Botswana, as well as in a few travelers to Belgium, Britain, Germany, Israel, Italy and Hong Kong."

Omicron Netherlands: 13 air passengers test positive for new variant
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59451103

That's 13 of 61 persons who tested positive for SARS-Cov-2 on two planes arriving at Schipol Airport in the Netherlands. Ostensibly, the others have Delta?

The BBC article mentions: "Cases of the new variant have also been confirmed in several European countries, including the UK, Germany and Italy, as well as Botswana, Israel, Australia and Hong Kong." Sure enough, apparently Australia has identified two cases of Omicron variant!

The Netherlands and Australia find the omicron variant as curbs spread​

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/28/1059...alia-find-the-omicron-variant-as-curbs-spread

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/28/world/covid-omicron-variant-news

In Australia, officials said that Omicron was detected in two travelers who flew into Sydney on Saturday evening on a Qatar Airways flight from Doha. They were asymptomatic and fully vaccinated, according to a statement from the health authority in New South Wales State. The travelers were placed into quarantine.

In the same article, one image shows international departure flights from Johannesburg. One flight, QR1364, to Doha is canceled on November 27.

In the same NYTimes article,

In Denmark, officials said that Omicron was detected in two travelers who had recently arrived from South Africa. Both are in isolation, and their close contacts are being traced, according to a statement by the State Serum Institute, Denmark’s infectious disease authority.

Dr Angelique Coetzee, the South African doctor who first spotted the new Covid variant Omicron, says the patients seen so far have had "extremely mild symptoms" - but more time is needed before we know the seriousness of the disease for vulnerable people.

However, the doctor is waiting to see how significant the Omnicron variant might be for the more vulnerable population.

 

[PeroK]

Heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and other chronic conditions are not transmissible to others. In addition to the mortality and potentially detrimental effects to the one's health, SARS-Cov-2 is readily transmissible to others.

As with other transmissible diseases, like measles, mumps, rubella, . . . . , various governments and health agencies hope to vaccinate as many as possible, in order to reduce the threat to the public health.

This is the point that is often overlooked. We have had only 140,000 deaths from COVID in the UK because we have locked down and generally taken extreme measures to control the disease. Without these controls, the deaths would have been at least 500,000 - and the overload on the hospitals and ICU beds in particular may have meant many more non-COVID related deaths.

We have the hospital infrastructure in the UK to deal with about 600,000 deaths annually, but we do not have the infrastructure to cope with 1 million deaths in a given year. That's what we were facing before the vaccination roll-out.

The idea that lockdowns and other measures made no difference is ludicrous and irrational.

 

[hutchphd]

It is right and proper for all thinking people who value freedom to be asking what is actually required, not to willingly accept a total over-kill impacting our liberties when it is not necessary

Its nice to see someone with an open mind.
No one knows what is actually required (except apparently the idiots among us). We do know things that help.

.

 

[Astronuc]

This is the point that is often overlooked.

I've been pondering the decimation of indigenous peoples in the Americas to diseases such as measles, mumps, influenza and small pox, introduced by Europeans.

From a national security (public health) perspective, consider the SARS-Cov-2 virus as a biological 'weapon of mass destruction', then act accordingly. Most governments have the responsibility of preventing the spread of such a weapon and protecting the population.

 

[cmb]

Its nice to see someone with an open mind.
No one knows what is actually required (except apparently the idiots among us). We do know things that help.

Help what, exactly? I thought we don't yet know the severity of this variant?

Have there been any hospitalisations from this new variant? Deaths?

The way the statistics stand at the moment in the UK is the contradictory conclusion that you will live longer if you have Covid.

Average life expectancy in the UK; 81 years old

Average age of death from Covid; 83 years old.

What does this mean? That you live 2 years longer if you catch Covid?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ns/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...ionfoi/averageageofthosewhohaddiedwithcovid19

 

[cmb]

What we do know is what the doctor that spotted this has said about it;-

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-symptoms-mild-doctor-angelique-coetzee-b968715.html

I mean, sure, take precautions but let's get it understood quickly to avoid unnecessary hardships.

 

[Jarvis323]

Help what, exactly? I thought we don't yet know the severity of this variant?

Have there been any hospitalisations from this new variant? Deaths?

The way the statistics stand at the moment in the UK is the contradictory conclusion that you will live longer if you have Covid.

Average life expectancy in the UK; 81 years old

Average age of death from Covid; 83 years old.

What does this mean? That you live 2 years longer if you catch Covid?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ns/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...ionfoi/averageageofthosewhohaddiedwithcovid19

A good statistician wouldn't make those conclusions based on that data.

But anyways, if you read the data you linked again, you'll see that the latter says mean is 80.3. Mean is average not median.

 

[cmb]

A good statistician wouldn't make those conclusions based on that data.

But anyways, if you read the data you linked again, you'll see that the latter says mean is 80.3. Mean is average not median.

OK, maybe, but if the data for some disease was 'average death 51 versus life expectancy 81', it's pretty normal to assume that means around 30 years of life lost per death. In Covid's case in the UK, it is a negative value, but let's say zero, for the sake of argument. A disease which doesn't alter average life expectancy is hardly something that would ordinarily get a mention.

I'm not trying to make a point, other than what the data appears to be saying.

 

[Jarvis323]

In Covid's case in the UK, it is a negative value, but let's say zero, for the sake of argument.

Based on your data it's still a positive value. Life expectancy is 81 and average age of death for person who has had Covid is 80.3.

 

[Astronuc]

What we do know is what the doctor that spotted this has said about it;-

Dr. Coetzee first discovered the variant in a man in his early 30s who displayed symptoms of tiredness and a mild headache. She indicated that those testing positive so far tend to be younger, e.g., university students and younger adults. She also indicated she was waiting to see how severe the response would be for older, and more vulnerable members of the population.

Her experience so far has been that the variant is affecting people who are 40 or younger. Almost half of the patients with Omicron symptoms that she treated were not vaccinated.

https://www.reuters.com/world/afric...n-variant-have-very-mild-symptoms-2021-11-28/

Coetzee said a patient on Nov. 18 reported at her clinic being "extremely fatigued" for two days with body aches and headache.

"Symptoms at that stage was very much related to normal viral infection. And because we haven't seen COVID-19 for the past eight to 10 weeks, we decided to test," she said, adding that the patient and his family turned out to be positive.

I have not seen any comment on the vaccination status of the 30-something year-old patient, but only that "almost half of the patients with Omicron symptoms that she treated were not vaccinated."

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

I'm not trying to make a point, other than what the data appears to be saying.

Your interpretation of the data is wrong. You can find the reason for this in your own link:

Statistician’s comment
"Life expectancy has increased in the UK over the last 40 years, albeit at a slower pace in the last decade.

“However, the Coronavirus pandemic led to a greater number of deaths than normal in 2020. Consequently, in the latest estimates, we see virtually no improvement in life expectancy for females compared to 2015 to 2017 at 82.9 years, while for males life expectancy has fallen back to levels reported for 2012 to 2014, at 79 years. This is the first time we have seen a decline when comparing non-overlapping time periods since the series began in the early 1980s.

“These estimates rely on the assumption that current levels of mortality, which are unusually high, will continue for the rest of someone’s life. Once the Coronavirus pandemic has ended and its consequences for future mortality are known, it is possible that life expectancy will return to an improving trend in the future.”

Pamela Cobb, Centre for Ageing and Demography, Office for National Statistics

Source:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ns/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020

 

[Jarvis323]

And if the health risk was really the bottom line 'fix it at all costs' point of action, let us note that heart disease has outpaced Coronavirus through the pandemic. 18 million a year global deaths, typically, compared with 3.7 million for Covid, global deaths Nov-Nov for the last year.

It hasn't outpaced Covid everywhere.

In England, Covid-19 was the leading underlying cause of death among men in 2020, replacing heart disease, and the second largest cause of death among women, after dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. Dementia was also reported as the main pre-existing condition on 25.6% of deaths certificates involving covid-19, the report added.

And in terms of life expectancy,

The Covid-19 pandemic led to the biggest year-on-year drop in life expectancy in England since statistics were first collected in 1981, Public Health England has said.

In 2020, the agency said that “the very high level” of excess deaths because of the pandemic caused life expectancy in England to fall 1.3 years for men to 78.7 and 0.9 years for women to 82.7. This was the lowest life expectancy in England for both sexes since 2011.

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2291

But what we do know is that Covid is causing many young people to suffer serious injury (e.g. organ damage, and brain damage). We may see more effects manifest over long periods of time if those people's life spans are reduced.

Younger adults admitted to hospital with Covid are almost as likely to suffer from complications as those over 50 years old, a study has found.
Four in 10 of those between 19 and 49 developed problems with their kidneys, lungs or other organs while treated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/health-57840825.amp

 

[StevieTNZ]

The two travellers that tested positive for Covid-19, on a flight from Doha to NSW, Australia, have this variant.