DUARS Satellite Re-Entry: Impressive Light Show & Potential Debris Threat

[Evo]

lol, evo on friday:
taken from the attachment.

lol!

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

See, it's only a public relations problem rather than an actual threat, i.e., it's not like congress.

Small comfort when that public relations problem knocks down your front door during dinner time.

 

[dlgoff]

See, it's only a public relations problem rather than an actual threat, i.e., it's not like congress.

Funny. When Sky Lab was on its way to reentry, my NASA engineer friend called from Huston and since I live in Kansas I should duck.

 

[jtbell]

Lol, Evo on friday:

Taken from the attachment.

That's her PF ban-bat.

 

[KrisOhn]

I like that! That really captures Evo.

Hahaha, right before she swings, misses and hits herself in the ankle.

 

[Evo]

Hahaha, right before she swings, misses and hits herself in the ankle.

Buwahahah!

So true.

 

[QuarkCharmer]

 

[Janus]

Did anyone else catch in the one video where they said that most of the satellite would burn up when it enters the "Fiery ring the surrounds the Earth"?

 

[Evo]

Did anyone else catch in the one video where they said that most of the satellite would burn up when it enters the "Fiery ring the surrounds the Earth"?

LOL! NO! Was that the ABC video I posted?

I wonder how long before this becomes a new doomsday scenario on the internet? Perhaps the short time frame isn't worth the effort.

 

[Janus]

This is the latest track.

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/space-satellite-uars-adrift-heading-earth/story?id=14534076

Just to make you feel better. The line they show is for its present orbit at the time. It completes 1 orbit every 96 min, so by the next pass, the Earth would have turned some 24 degrees to the East. In other words, each orbit is shifted over with respect to the Earth and wouldn't pass over you.

 

[Evo]

Just to make you feel better. The line they show is for its present orbit at the time. It completes 1 orbit every 96 min, so by the next pass, the Earth would have turned some 24 degrees to the East. In other words, each orbit is shifted over with respect to the Earth and wouldn't pass over you.

Where will it be by this weekend? They're saying between Canada and the southern tip of south America. Is that wrong? (wouldn't be surprised).

 

[micromass]

Where will it be by this weekend?

Back in Kansas.

 

[Evo]

Back in Kansas.

Oh NO! Now they're saying it might hit Europe!

 

[lisab]

Oh NO! Now they're saying it might hit Europe!

How do you say "rut roh" in French?

 

[micromass]

Oh NO! Now they're saying it might hit Europe!

Yeey, great fun!

 

[QuarkCharmer]

How do you say "rut roh" in French?

"Le ras reaux"

 

[Evo]

"Le ras reaux"

 

[Janus]

Where will it be by this weekend? They're saying between Canada and the southern tip of south America. Is that wrong? (wouldn't be surprised).

It's hard to say. Every 96 min. the Earth rotates 24°, so at a latitude of say 45°, that works out to a ~1900 km shift per orbit. So you would have to pin the time down pretty tightly to get a position.

Here's the real time track for the satellite:

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701

As I post it is just about to cross the Equator in the Pacific.

 

[Evo]

It's hard to say. Every 96 min. the Earth rotates 24°, so at a latitude of say 45°, that works out to a ~1900 km shift per orbit. So you would have to pin the time down pretty tightly to get a position.

Here's the real time track for the satellite:

http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701

As I post it is just about to cross the Equator in the Pacific.

Oooh! Look at it go!

 

[edward]

The satellite appears to have an orbit that constantly changes??

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

It looks like they moved it up to friday 20hrs +or-

Spread out don't gather in groups. Stay low to the gound and maintain complete silence Or just relax and have a beer. :zzz:

Edit:

Here is a NASA update site (like they really know?)

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

 

[QuarkCharmer]

The satellite appears to have an orbit that constantly changes??

That's due to the objects interaction with the Earth's incandesosphere slice. It's a hydrocarbon evolving collection of dense particulates forming an annular ring with concentric and uniform photonic properties that is localized around the gravitational maxima of the Earth's field. It produces orthogonal waves that can interact with the orbits of some objects. Johnny Cash once wrote a song about it.

 

[Andre]

That's due to the objects interaction with the Earth's incandesosphere slice. It's a hydrocarbon evolving collection of dense particulates forming an annular ring with concentric and uniform photonic properties that is localized around the gravitational maxima of the Earth's field. It produces orthogonal waves that can interact with the orbits of some objects. Johnny Cash once wrote a song about it.

Anyway wouldn't it be logical if the thing crashed close to the equator? Firstly it should have the strongest gravitational pull there due to the equatorial bulge, but probably more importantly, if the orbit height is in reference to the centre of the earth, the atmosphere is up to some km higher than at higher lattitudes.

Edit, obviously this would only be true in case of a circular orbit, not with an elliptic orbit.

 

[ArcanaNoir]

Aren't there lots of old missile silos in the midwest? Maybe that would be a safe place to hide.

 

[rhody]

So, is it safe to say, when the little satellite is no longer tracking we will know it by the real time updates of the orbit track ? Let's hope the blip doesn't go blank over Evo's home state.

Rhody...

 

[arildno]

Evo has not made a reply in over 6 hours.

WHERE ARE YOU?

 

[Astronuc]

Evo has not made a reply in over 6 hours.

WHERE ARE YOU?

Hopefully asleep in her usual accomodations.

 

[edward]

That's due to the objects interaction with the Earth's incandesosphere slice. It's a hydrocarbon evolving collection of dense particulates forming an annular ring with concentric and uniform photonic properties that is localized around the gravitational maxima of the Earth's field. It produces orthogonal waves that can interact with the orbits of some objects. Johnny Cash once wrote a song about it.

That is funny But it does have a constantly changing orbit.

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

 

[QuarkCharmer]

That is funny But it does have a constantly changing orbit.

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

I was just playing off the news anchors "it will burn up in the fiery ring that surrounds the earth" commend from some posts above.

 

[BobG]

Here's the approximate times you should worry:

1    21 Sep 2011 20:27:27.572    21 Sep 2011 20:29:34.531           126.959
2    22 Sep 2011 04:09:24.991    22 Sep 2011 04:11:35.665           130.675
3    22 Sep 2011 19:59:21.016    22 Sep 2011 20:01:16.917           115.901
4    23 Sep 2011 03:40:06.800    23 Sep 2011 03:42:07.761           120.961
5    23 Sep 2011 19:27:47.442    23 Sep 2011 19:29:15.944            88.502
6    24 Sep 2011 03:07:20.247    24 Sep 2011 03:08:56.825            96.578

Keep in mind that the duration is so short because I limited the elevation in order to only list the passes that have a reasonable chance of hitting you; not just any pass that might be barely visible on the horizon. Still, the longer the duration, the closer the satellite comes. The one tomorrow morning comes almost right overhead. If I were you, I'd get up early so I could duck.

If you're lucky, the UARS will hit you on the 23rd. The location of the satellite will be just right for the Sun to reflect off of it and you'll be able to see it coming. It could be a sight you'll remember for the rest of your life.

Well, unless instead of killing you, it just causes amnesia from a severe blow to the head, in which case, you wouldn't remember the sight at all.

Of course, also keep in mind the orbit is constantly changing and that this projection is based on an SGP4 propagation, which is too generic to be very accurate. As Edward mentioned, the orbit is constantly changing because the satellite is reaching the denser parts of the atmosphere (made even densor by the fact that we're in solar max). Not only is the orbit getting smaller and smaller, but the rate at which the orbit is getting smaller is increasing.

The higher precision propagation didn't go very well. It wouldn't propagate past today. But that just means the orbit is changing too fast to predict the orbit. It's definitely coming down soon, though.

Edit: I can't believe it! It passes over Evo several times over the next few days, while it just barely gets over the horizon in Colorado Springs! I don't get a single decent pass! How unlucky can a person get?

 

[rhody]

I say the "Bye Bye Evo" thread caused the PF outage all day today, what say the membership at large ??!

Rhody...

 

[Evo]

Edit: I can't believe it! It passes over Evo several times over the next few days, while it just barely gets over the horizon in Colorado Springs! I don't get a single decent pass! How unlucky can a person get?

YAY EVO!

I could be there tomorrow Bob, you're not that far from me, if I drive fast! Then we can watch it together!

 

[BobG]

YAY EVO!

I could be there tomorrow Bob, you're not that far from me, if I drive fast! Then we can watch it together!

You should. You'd like my house. The stairs are carpeted so it doesn't hurt as bad when you trip on them.

 

[flyingpig]

I'll pour alcohol over your grave and bring flowers occasionally

 

[edward]

YAY EVO!

I could be there tomorrow Bob, you're not that far from me, if I drive fast! Then we can watch it together!

Your not in the clear yet some pretty big pieces will be coming down. NASA did the Re-entry risk assement in 2002??

Click on Re-entry risk assesment in the link below. Page 7. They have a lot of interesting data.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html

 

[Evo]

You should. You'd like my house. The stairs are carpeted so it doesn't hurt as bad when you trip on them.

Oh that's ok, when I fall downstairs, I bounce into the air, flip over facing the ceiling, and remain airborne, headfirst, until my skull stops my fall by smashing into the hard floor at the bottom.

None of that lame tumbling downstairs.