Georgian - South Ossetian - Russian Conflict

[Oberst Villa]

I think US foreign policy has been rather poor - for the last 232 years - but then it's much along the lines of the European and Asian Imperial/colonial powers.

US foreign policy wasn't all that bad under Franklin D. Roosevelt. If he would have messed it up, Europe (including Russia) might be living under the swastika now.

 

[meopemuk]

Traub's article, while leaving out the background and some key details, is pretty good for the US.

That's right: "some key detail". Thousand of people here, thousand of people there... who counts them? Anyway, the value of people's life in some remote obscure region is much less than of those occupying a skyscraper in New York. For some powers it is OK to occupy and devastate entire countries. For others it is not OK to defend its own citizens. Pretty good for the US.

 

[Oberst Villa]

The conflict between Russia and Georgia might have consequences for the Iran policy of the US:


The effect will be felt beyond the Caucasus. Noting that the US wants Russia to support sanctions against Iran and to not sell weapons – "particularly the highly effective S-300 air defense system" – an analysis from Stratfor, an intelligence analysis firm, said Wednesday that the Russians "have backed the Americans into a corner."
"Georgia is a marginal issue to the United States; Iran is a central issue," notes Stratfor. The US must either "reorient" away from the Mideast to the Caucasus, or "seriously limit its response to Georgia to avoid a Russian counter in Iran."

(underlined by me, not in original text)

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0815/p10s01-wome.html


If you assume that this is true, which of the options do you think the US will take ? Reorient from Mideast to Caucasus or limit its response against Russia ?

 

[quadraphonics]

This is actually the reason why peacekeeping forces were stationed in South Ossetia. By the way, this force consisted of three parts: Ossetians, Georgians and Russians.

The idea of having the parties to the conflict, and only those parties, serve as peacekeepers seems poorly-conceived to me. The whole idea of a peacekeeping force is that it is a neutral third party with no incentive to use its position to deepen the conflict. Granted, it's often difficult to get all the parties to a conflict to agree upon and accept such a third-party, but it seems like an abuse of the term 'peacekeepers' to use it in this situation. When it's the actual parties to the conflict, the 'peacekeeping mission' is nothing more than a temporary cease-fire, and a pretense for mobilizing troops and resources in the disputed area.

 

[meopemuk]

Western "independent" media looks laughable. Saakhashvili's paranoidal statements are reported immediately without verification, and Russian officials are quoted out of context. They (the media) try to avoid the central issue of who destroyed Tshinvali by all possible means: "cannot be independently verified", "Georgians were provoked", "result of heavy fighting", etc. It is good that some Western reporters now reached the conflict zone on the South Ossetian side and started to send more or less objective information, including interviews with local residents, who know better than anybody else who is to blame. The West is going to be embarrassed very soon to learn that they gave unconditional support to a war criminal.

 

[meopemuk]

The idea of having the parties to the conflict, and only those parties, serve as peacekeepers seems poorly-conceived to me. The whole idea of a peacekeeping force is that it is a neutral third party with no incentive to use its position to deepen the conflict. Granted, it's often difficult to get all the parties to a conflict to agree upon and accept such a third-party, but it seems like an abuse of the term 'peacekeepers' to use it in this situation. When it's the actual parties to the conflict, the 'peacekeeping mission' is nothing more than a temporary cease-fire, and a pretense for mobilizing troops and resources in the disputed area.

Yes, I agree, this was not an ideal solution. Apparently, there was no 4th party willing to send their peacekeepers to the area and acceptable to all sides of the conflict. So, the sides made the arrangement among themselves. Note that this arrangement (good or bad) managed to keep relative peace and quiet in the area for 15 years.

 

[Art]

US foreign policy wasn't all that bad under Franklin D. Roosevelt. If he would have messed it up, Europe (including Russia) might be living under the swastika now.

You should brush up on WW11 history. Russia defeated Germany in the defining battles of Stalingrad which started the reversal in Germany's fortunes and then Kiev which signalled the beginning of the end for Hitler without anybody's help. All the major battles were fought in the East with the Western front being a far lessor battle ground in terms of men and materials. Plus America went to war with Germany because Germany declared war on America two weeks after Pearl Harbour which didn't exactly leave the US a choice. Having said that and not to take away from America's role it is very likely that all of Europe would have ended up under Stalinist Russia were it not for the US forces.

 

[WarPhalange]

You should brush up on WW11 history.

Holy crap! You mean to tell me I slept through NINE world wars??

 

[Art]

Holy crap! You mean to tell me I slept through NINE world wars??

Stercus accidit atqui nihil est. In vita priore ego imperator romanus fui.

Scio cur summae inter se dissentiant! Numeris Romanis utor!

 

[Art]

A more balanced analysis from the BBC

Russians losing propaganda war

By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News

The Bush administration appears to be trying to turn a failed military operation by Georgia into a successful diplomatic operation against Russia.

It is doing so by presenting the Russian actions as aggression and playing down the Georgian attack into South Ossetia on 7 August, which triggered the Russian operation.

Yet the evidence from South Ossetia about that attack indicates that it was extensive and damaging.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7562611.stm

 

[AhmedEzz]

Wow, I thought the Brits were kissing the US's butts...hmm, maybe this Gordon Brown is not a puppy dog as Blair used to be.

 

[seycyrus]

Western "independent" media looks laughable. Saakhashvili's paranoidal statements are reported immediately without verification, .

I don't see the problem with this as long as they are identified as his statements. If a world leader is publicly making statements, I want to know what those statements are.

...They (the media) try to avoid the central issue of who destroyed Tshinvali by all possible means: "cannot be independently verified", "... It is good that some Western reporters now reached the conflict zone on the South Ossetian side ...

They were exactly correct in saying that the reports could not be *independently* verified. State controlled russian media is not an independent source. You do note that now they have people on the ground, and are able to cover the stories firsthand.

This "western media" junk is laughable.

Just because news sources that are well known for their past criticism of the Bush Admin. didn't immediately swallow everything that the state controlled russian media was putting out, they are labelled as biased.

Meanwhile, for an balanced perspective, let's look at a few reports from the russian controlled media that were even remotely critical of the Russian handling of the situation.

Oh wait, those don't exist.

I guess in a country with a population of 140 mil. everyone totally agrees on this issue! Ha!

 

[AhmedEzz]

In my opinion, you are not looking at the big picture. Something similar would have happened one way or the other. It is not who shot the first shot or who started this, it is something like a hidden war between Russia, EU & US. Russia just added a card that might be to its favor if it is played correctly. The US wants to debunk this card, it starts a media propaganda and tries different things to put this card down. For example, put political pressure on Russia, direct the UN to put more pressure on Russia, get someone like Sarkozy to put more pressure on Russia, support Georgian forces and supply them with weapons and so and so...I think the US might even call forces into Georgia.

This is the Russians not bending over to Americans (unlike some people) and Americans trying to neutralise the Russian danger by implementing its missile-defense programme.

*this is my personal opinion*

just so that you guys know, i am not talking like madman or throwing accusations:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7563182.stm

 

[seycyrus]

just so that you guys know, i am not talking like madman or throwing accusations:

I think you sufficiently documented your earlier post as being an opinion.

But to address what I believe is the intent of your post, I believe that this whole scenario will strengthen US relations with the other former Soviet countries in the region.

Russia might think that they have "won" by including the right to stay in the country for 6 months to ensure security or whatnot, but the surrounding countries will certainly be watching. Any presence by the Russians over what those countries deem as a reasonable amount of time, will bring them closer to the US.

 

[meopemuk]

Just because news sources that are well known for their past criticism of the Bush Admin. didn't immediately swallow everything that the state controlled russian media was putting out, they are labelled as biased.

But they were happy to swallow Saakhashvili's lies each time he spewed them. Headlines like "Russian tanks are coming" go well with US public. Any kind words toward Russia raise eyebrows. That's how I explain the bias.

I guess in a country with a population of 140 mil. everyone totally agrees on this issue! Ha!

You may be surprised but you won't find many Russians who disagree about this conflict. Trust me. Of course, even in the US there are wacko's who explain 9/11 as Bush conspiracy. I can imagine that similar type views (i.e., that present conflict was started by Putin) exist in Russia. But they are tiny minority.

 

[seycyrus]

But they were happy to swallow Saakhashvili's lies each time he spewed them.

"Report" is not the same thing as "swallow".

Headlines like "Russian tanks are coming" go well with US public.

Are there not tanks inside Georgian territory as we speak?

Any kind words toward Russia raise eyebrows.

Nah. Kind words spoken by the russian controlled media in the absence of *any* criticism by that same media, raises eyebrows. As well it should.

I can imagine that similar type views (i.e., that present conflict was started by Putin) exist in Russia. But they are tiny minority.

And to what media source do those who have these minority views go to, to express them, and see them printed or broadcast?

All over the "western media" I have seen anti-US allegations about the cause of this whole controversy.

Show me the analog, in the russian controlled media.

 

[meopemuk]

And to what media source do those who have these minority views go to, to express them, and see them printed or broadcast?

All over the "western media" I have seen anti-US allegations about the cause of this whole controversy.

Show me the analog, in the russian controlled media.

I regularly browse Russian information websites, and I see all kind of stuff there including statements of Western leaders, links to CNN, BBC, Georgian press, etc. Russia does not try to block information (like China, for example). You probably think that Russia today is the same as Soviet Union 30 years ago. No, it isn't.

As for opponents to the current regime, the most vocal and pro-Western player is Garry Kasparov. He issued an "official statement" regarding these events.

http://www.theotherrussia.org/2008/...ion-on-the-war-in-georgia-official-statement/

He does blame Russian leadership for inconsistent policy in the Caucasus, however, he does not deny that Georgian full-scale attack was the trigger:

"Why, after an attack on Russian peacekeepers by the superior forces of the opponent in Tskhinvali, did the official establishment stand in a state of stupor for several hours, and didn’t rush to provide military assistance?"

From what I heard, immediately after the attack, Russians tried to get a resolution of the UN Security Council in order to stop Georgians by diplomatic means. After this attempt failed, there was no other option but to use an overwhelming force.

 

[baywax]

"U.S. President George W. Bush accused Russia of bullying ex-Soviet Georgia, saying: "Bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century."

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080815/world/us_russia_georgia

This is an indication of either total hypocrisy or Alzheimer's Disease when you consider the tactics used to pull off the invasion of Iraq.

 

[Oberst Villa]

Mikhail Gorbatchev, talking with Larry King, puts the blame for the fighting on Georgia:

"This was the use of sophisticated weapons against a small town, against a sleeping people. This was a barbaric assault."

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/14/gorbachev/index.html

 

[lisab]

"U.S. President George W. Bush accused Russia of bullying ex-Soviet Georgia, saying: "Bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century."

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080815/world/us_russia_georgia

This is an indication of either total hypocrisy or Alzheimer's Disease when you consider the tactics used to pull off the invasion of Iraq.

He has a severe irony deficiency.

 

[baywax]

He has a severe irony deficiency.

 

[Gokul43201]

If you missed the Daily Show episode that first covered this conflict, you can thank me for this:

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/...ign-countries-is-fineunless-theyre-in-europe/

Watch it - it's priceless!

 

[meopemuk]

Any presence by the Russians over what those countries deem as a reasonable amount of time, will bring them closer to the US.

The truth of the matter is that Georgian army, police, and all authorities ran from Gori and Senaki leaving behing huge amount of ready-to-use military equipment, ammunition, etc. It would be insane to leave this area without any kind of supervision. Can you imagine if some angry person (and now there are many angry people in the area, both Georgians and Ossetians) decided to take a ride around the neighborhood in one of those tanks? I heard that Russians are exploding ammunition dumps in the area.

Another problem is that many Ossetian militiamen entered Georgia proper behind Russian army. They are not well educated on the rules of engagement and hardly obey anyone's orders. I don't think they deserve a lot of blame, because they simply took weapons to defend their families and homes. There are reports of looting. There could be some revenge killings as well. I also heard a report that Russian military commanders shot dead two looters. Nobody wants the Ossetia-Georgia border to become a site of mayhem, like in Bagdad after US invasion.

Just be patient. When the dust settles, Russians will transfer the control over to Georgian authorities. This would take a couple of days, I think. You'll continue hearing about "ceasefire violations" from the US media during this time. But it is better not to pay attention.

 

[WarPhalange]

Did anybody post this yet?

H8XI2Chc6uQ[/youtube]

 

[meopemuk]

You can find the Russian side of the story (in English) and a lot of video footage not shown by Western media on www.russiatoday.com[/URL]

 

[roam]

Having said that and not to take away from America's role it is very likely that all of Europe would have ended up under Stalinist Russia were it not for the US forces.

There is no such thing as a "Stalinist" to begin with. If you are referring to the political ideology used in the Soviet Union during Stalin's era, it's Marxism-Leninism.

Stalin was not the only one in power in the USSR. He was the general secretary of the party. There were many others involved as well but as you may know 'big guy always gets the sh*t...'

 

[Gokul43201]

lUMUGlJDdOA[/youtube] According ...cated . . . lawyer, Mikhail [i]Sashkavili[/i]".

 

[AhmedEzz]

This just shows one why this MCcain cannot be a president. Is there anything coming from the office of Obama?

 

[Astronuc]

Q&A: Russia-Georgia Conflict Has Deep Roots
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93525210

What triggered the current fighting?

It began as a series of sniper-fire incidents and clashes between the South Ossetian militia and Georgian army troops during the first week in August. By Aug. 7, Georgian President Saakashvili was charging that the South Ossetians were using heavy weapons that had been brought into the area in violation of the cease-fire. Civilians began to flee Tskhinvali, the town that serves as South Ossetia's capital. On Aug. 8, Saakashvili ordered Georgian troops to capture the city.

Russia responded with airstrikes on Georgian positions, not just in South Ossetia but also in Abkhazia, where Georgian troops still had a foothold in the Kodori Gorge region. Russia has said it is only seeking to restore stability to the two regions, but as its troops advanced out of the separatist regions into undisputed Georgian territory, President Bush accused Russia of seeking to crush the Georgian military and trigger the overthrow of Saakashvili's government.

Hmmm. How should a nation or law enforcement agency respond to sniper fire?

Abkhazia had a sizable population of ethnic Georgians who were forcibly expelled from the region during the fighting in the early 1990s. Human Rights Watch reported that the Abkhaz separatists committed widespread atrocities against Georgians, including massacres, rapes, torture and ethnic cleansing. The findings were corroborated in a 1994 country report from the U.S. State Department.

There are still pockets of ethnic Georgians living in South Ossetia, and Georgia asserts that it must protect them from the same fate.

How should this matter be resolved?


But then - Lack Of Western Action On Georgia Reflects History - Daniel Schorr
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93510044

All Things Considered, August 11, 2008 · Western powers have so far failed to support Georgia in its conflict with Russia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. It is the latest historical example of the failure of great powers to support little countries when the chips are down.

 

[russ_watters]

According to McCain, this is the first serious international crisis since the end of the Cold War! Really? What does he consider the first Gulf War, Kosovo, 9/11, the Iraq War, the genocide in Darfur, the North Korean test firing of Taepodongs near Japanese waters, Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Iran's ongoing UN confrontation (let's even ignore the global food and fuel crises)?

I probably would have chosen different words, but I see his point. None of those was serious enough that there was a risk of a lare war between nuclear superpowers.

The first Gulf War was probably the largest conflict since Vietnam in terms of the number of troops employed, but it was also relatively easy and manageable. One caveat, though: the Iraqi firing of Scuds at Israel was a somewhat serious situation because if Israel had responded, there was a possibility of the entire region erupting in conflict.

Those humanitarian conflicts are not serious in terms of their difficulty in dealing with them. We simply choose not to. I remember reading an analysis that the Rwanda conflict could have been stopped with a disturbingly small force. They are also not mostly not international crises.

Georgia is a US ally who is trying to get into NATO. If we're serious about our commitment to them, we should be sending troops there to fight the Russians. But we're not. Why?

 

[Gokul43201]

Is there anything coming from the office of Obama?

http://www.barackobama.com/2008/04/21/statement_of_senator_obama_on.php :

Georgia is a sovereign country, a member of the United Nations, and a close friend of the United States. I welcome the desire by Georgia, as well as Ukraine, to seek closer ties with NATO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's decree establishing closer governmental and legal relations with the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, without the approval of the Georgian government, is deeply troubling and contrary to Russia's obligations as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Putin's declaration falls short of recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries, but these pledges of closer ties to these two regions threatens the Georgian government and emboldens the secessionist forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
...

http://www.barackobama.com/2008/07/23/statement_of_senator_obama_on_1.php :

Over the last several weeks, Russia and Georgia have been engaged in a steadily more dangerous confrontation over two secessionist regions of Georgia -- South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Although these territories are located within Georgia's internationally-recognized borders, the Russian government seems determined to challenge Georgia's territorial integrity in both places. Developments took an especially provocative turn several days ago when four Russian warplanes violated Georgian airspace close to the Georgian capital for forty minutes.
...
Only a political settlement can resolve the conflicts over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia needs to roll back the aggressive actions it has taken in the last three months. The Georgian government must resist the temptation to be drawn into a military conflict. All parties must make clear that they are committed to a diplomatic settlement and will not seek to resolve this dispute by force.

The international community must become more active in trying to defuse this confrontation. The fact that Russia has become a party to the conflict means that Russia is not qualified to play the role of a mediator. The visit to Georgia by German Foreign Minister Steinmeier this week was a positive, important step towards establishing a larger role for the European Union. The Euro-Atlantic community must speak with one voice in helping to promote peace in this volatile region. As part of the de-escalation process, a multilateral peacekeeping force must eventually replace the Russian peacekeeping force currently deployed in Abkhazia.

See also: https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1834123&postcount=88

McCain's "Today we are all Georgians" speech
(Looks like McCain has now become a really good friend of Saakashvili - note how he refers to him as Mischa. And don't forget that in 2005, McCain nominated Mischa for the Nobel Peace Prize.)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/12/us/politics/12mccain.html

And finally, note this about McCain's business partner and foreign policy advisor, Randy Scheunemann: Wiki: Randy Scheunemann

While the foreign affairs advisor to Republican presidential candidate John McCain, Scheunemann was also a registered foreign agent (lobbyist) for the Republic of Georgia[5] [6]

On April 17, 2008, McCain spoke on the phone with Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili about Russian efforts to gain leverage over two of Georgia's troubled provinces. That same day, McCain issued a public statement condemning Russia and expressing strong support for the Georgian position. Also on that same day, Georgia signed a new, $200,000 lobbying contract with Scheunemann's firm, Orion Strategies. Scheunemann remained with Orion Strategies until May 15, when the McCain campaign imposed a tough new anti-lobbyist policy and he was required to separate himself from the company.

More here: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iG-8I87S5w4QP8CPIrx2wh8irqmgD92HH3M00

And during what McCain refers to as probably the most serious international crisis since the Cold War, where is George Bush? He's on a 2-week vacation, in his ranch in Texas, after a week-long visit to Beijing. Maybe the White House doesn't share McCain's opinion on this?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-08-16-bush-georgia-comment_N.htm

 

[Gokul43201]

Well, none of those was serious enough that there was a risk of world war.

It's always possible to make a situation serious enough that there arises the risk of a world war.

Georgia is a US ally who is trying to get into NATO. If we're serious our commitment to them, we should be sending troops there to fight the Russians. But we're not. Why?

Because that would be exactly the kind of thing that could escalate the situation towards a World War?

 

[AhmedEzz]

I probably would have chosen different words, but I see his point. None of those was serious enough that there was a risk of a lare war between nuclear superpowers.

The first Gulf War was probably the largest conflict since Vietnam in terms of the number of troops employed, but it was also relatively easy and manageable. One caveat, though: the Iraqi firing of Scuds at Israel was a somewhat serious situation because if Israel had responded, there was a possibility of the entire region erupting in conflict.

Those humanitarian conflicts are not serious in terms of their difficulty in dealing with them. We simply choose not to. I remember reading an analysis that the Rwanda conflict could have been stopped with a disturbingly small force. They are also not mostly not international crises.

Georgia is a US ally who is trying to get into NATO. If we're serious about our commitment to them, we should be sending troops there to fight the Russians. But we're not. Why?

Sorry man but your words are false in my opinion. If your daughter or wife was in any of those so-called "not serious" wars, I bet you wouldn't have said that. The only people who are affected by those not serious wars are innocent civilians who happened to be there. and now you want to put US forces in front of Russian forces? I hope Bush is not stupid enough to do this.

Presidents will wake the next morning and still be presidents, safe, unharmed and healthy. However, those living in conflict zones don't if they might even wake up the next morning. This is why MCcain should not be voted for, he will only bring war and destruction to the world. Unlike Obama who does not have war on the top of his to-do list.

 

[Gokul43201]

Statement released by McCain campaign:

"The Obama campaign's attacks on Randy Scheunemann are disgraceful. Mr. Scheunemann proudly represented a small democracy that is one of our closest allies in a very dangerous region. Today, many are dead and Georgia is in crisis, yet the Obama campaign has offered nothing more than cheap and petty political attacks that are echoed only by the Kremlin. The reaction of the Obama campaign to this crisis, so at odds with our democratic allies and yet so bizarrely in sync with Moscow, doesn't merely raise questions about Senator Obama's judgment--it answers them."

Wow!

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=5552954&page=1

 

[Evo]

It seems Obama is echoing George Bush and McCain is the odd man out.

This article was back on August 9th.

Bush Calls for Peace in Georgia

The United States is sending a top envoy to the region and asking both sides to stand down their military forces.

Additionally, Bush spoke to the presidents of Russia and Georgia today asking them to stand down. Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili, announced he is bringing 2,000 troops home from Iraq.

President Bush urged talks between the two nations.

“The United States is working with our European partners to launch international mediation and with the parties to restart their dialogue,” Bush said. “Russia needs to support these efforts so that peace can be restored as quickly as possible.”

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/bush-calls-for.html