Iranian Elections: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Wins by Landslide

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In summary, the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has won reelection in a landslide victory against his Reformist opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi. There are reports of unrest and possible riots, as well as calls for a do-over.
  • #141
Well, the protests seem to be coming to an end now that the Basij and Guards have come out in full force. What is surprising is that they managed to arrest Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter, his power seems to be lessening by the hour.
 
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  • #142
Equate said:
This is so horrible:

Reports are that she (Neda, the alleged name of the woman in that video) was buried today, but that any memorial service was banned.

In different news, it seems that the claims about election irregularities was exaggerated:
"Statistics provided by the candidates, who claim more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 80-170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.

The spokesman, however, said that although the vote tally affected by such an irregularity could be over 3 million and the council could, at the request of the candidates, re-count the affected ballot boxes, "it has yet to be determined whether the possible change in the tally is decisive in the election results," reported Khabaronline.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=98711&sectionid=351020101

That must be a great source of comfort that voting in only 50 districts exceeded the number eligible. How ever can the people there be questioning the legitimacy of results?
 
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  • #143
math_04 said:
Well, the protests seem to be coming to an end now that the Basij and Guards have come out in full force. What is surprising is that they managed to arrest Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter, his power seems to be lessening by the hour.

The BBC reports that Rafsanjani's daughter was released several hours later.
 
  • #144
There was an interview with Robert Baer, former CIA agent and now best selling author and film maker. He wrote a really thought provoking book on Iran and its political goals last year. This interview is very enlightening.

- Part 1

- Part 2

The BBC reports that Rafsanjani's daughter was released several hours later.

Oh ok. Well the fact that she was arrested is quite a shock. Hashemi Rafsanjani, at least technically, is the second most powerful member in the Iranian political establishment. It is quite possible that he has been deposed or being kept against his will. The rumours were that he called an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts to probably discuss the Supreme Leader's hasty decisions, well, it seems that he failed in whatever he was planning and I can only guess where he is now.

Reports are that she (Neda, the alleged name of the woman in that video) was buried today, but that any memorial service was banned.

That was so shocking, probably will remain an enduring image of the Iranian people's will to fight against an oppressive theocracy. :frown:
 
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  • #145
This is for anyone who wants to take an active role:

I don't know how much of this is true, so could someone please verify?

As most of you know, most of the news coming out of Iran is coming via the Internet, especially social websites like Twitter, Facebook, etc.. News through "official channels" is notoriously unreliable, as the government controls the media. The government is also trying to control the Internet channels, and attempting to track down Iranians who post on the social networks.

Anyone who wants to help, and has an account on one of the social networks (or is willing to open an account, as I have) can simply open their "profile," change their location to "Tehran," and their local time to GMT + 3:30. Many bloggers, Facebook ers', and Twits (is that the correct personal form?) Are doing this in the hopes that, every time they post, it gives the Iranian government one more thing to track down. The idea is to introduce hundreds of millions of decoys into the hunt, making their task impossible.
 
  • #146
LURCH said:
Anyone who wants to help, and has an account on one of the social networks (or is willing to open an account, as I have) can simply open their "profile," change their location to "Tehran," and their local time to GMT + 3:30.

I think it's a good idea. I think there should be more diversity in cities, though -- why Tehran and not Qom, for example?
 
  • #147
In Iran, One Woman's Death May Have Many Consequences
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599190604900

Iran's revolution has now run through a full cycle. A gruesomely captivating video of a young woman - laid out on a Tehran street after apparently being shot, blood pouring from her mouth and then across her face - swept Twitter, Facebook and other websites this weekend. The woman rapidly became a symbol of Iran's escalating crisis, from a political confrontation to far more ominous physical clashes. Some sites refer to her as "Neda," Farsi for the voice or the call. Tributes that incorporate startlingly upclose footage of her dying have started to spring up on YouTube.

Although it is not yet clear who shot "Neda" (a soldier? pro-government militant? an accidental misfiring?), her death may have changed everything. For the cycles of mourning in Shiite Islam actually provide a schedule for political combat - a way to generate or revive momentum. Shiite Muslims mourn their dead on the third, seventh and 40th days after a death, and these commemorations are a pivotal part of Iran's rich history. During the revolution, the pattern of confrontations between the shah's security forces and the revolutionaries often played out in 40-day cycles.
. . . .
"Neda" is already being hailed as a martyr, a second important concept in Shiism. With the reported deaths of 19 people Saturday, martyrdom also provides a potent force that could further deepen public anger at Iran's regime.
. . . .
The first Shiite martyr was Hussein, the prophet Mohammed's grandson. He believed it was better to die fighting injustice than to live with injustice under what he believed was illegitimate rule.
Elevating Neda to martyr status would seem to provide powerful motivation to those opposing the current regime.

Iran's Key Players
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1905910_1905908,00.html
 
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  • #148
A London based agency, Chatham House, has done a thorough analysis of the elections using the data provided by the Ministry of Interior and found profound differences in voting patterns from previous years.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iUyMnsTPIBzrzCJ48FGXyFzksezwD98VTNB80

The actual analysis is below. Have a look through.

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/14234_iranelection0609.pdf
 
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  • #149
LURCH said:
This is for anyone who wants to take an active role:

Anyone who wants to help, and has an account on one of the social networks (or is willing to open an account, as I have) can simply open their "profile," change their location to "Tehran," and their local time to GMT + 3:30. Many bloggers, Facebook ers', and Twits (is that the correct personal form?) Are doing this in the hopes that, every time they post, it gives the Iranian government one more thing to track down. The idea is to introduce hundreds of millions of decoys into the hunt, making their task impossible.

You can use this photo:

http://images.alarabiya.net/mid1_11560_76734.jpg

ندا آقاسلطان، شهید (Neda )
 
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  • #150
LURCH said:
Anyone who wants to help, and has an account on one of the social networks (or is willing to open an account, as I have) can simply open their "profile," change their location to "Tehran," and their local time to GMT + 3:30.

Done. :approve:
 
  • #151


How good is to help Iran people in opposing their government?
 
  • #153
Equate said:
Done. :approve:

rootX said:
How good is to help Iran people in opposing their government?

Hans de Vries said:
Google's Persian (Farsi) to English translation (alpha version) can still
be accessed via the following link:

http://translate.google.com/translate_t#fa|en|

It's not available from their main page.

http://www.facebook.com/mousavi
http://www.leader.ir/
http://www.president.ir/fa/


Regards, Hans.

I think you will do well by helping to clean up your own society. The Iranians will take care of their own. No need to fake concerns. One billion people are hungry tonight.
 
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  • #154
qsa said:
I think you will do well by helping to clean up your own society. The Iranians will take care of their own. No need to fake concerns. One billion people are hungry tonight.

Don't make assumptions regarding the nature of another person's concerns.
 
  • #155
qsa said:
No need to fake concerns.

What makes you think the concerns are fake? You talk as if you have no understanding of the West whatsoever.

Why are the protestors displaying signs written in English?
 
  • #156
qsa said:
I think you will do well by helping to clean up your own society. The Iranians will take care of their own. No need to fake concerns. One billion people are hungry tonight.


Strawman argument?
 
  • #157
We have Iranian members here. I chatted with one of them last night around midnight (thanks for leaving that open Greg - it was nice to touch base.)
 
  • #158
seycyrus said:
Don't make assumptions regarding the nature of another person's concerns.

Ivan Seeking said:
What makes you think the concerns are fake? You talk as if you have no understanding of the West whatsoever.

Why are the protestors displaying signs written in English?

Office_Shredder said:
Strawman argument?

I wish to God that you really mean it. And it is not just politics of interest. That will be a wonderful world.
 
  • #159
Ivan Seeking said:
What makes you think the concerns are fake? You talk as if you have no understanding of the West whatsoever.

Why are the protestors displaying signs written in English?

Sorry if I was misunderstood. I like all the people of the world especially western ones since I have lived with them most of my adult life. I usually do not participate in forums It takes too much time to explain (I do read once in a while to update on people’s minds). But I found the root of all the disputes is in knowing enough details (matched to the statement being made) and in the real purpose of the arguments (if understanding the issue is fundamental or we just want to prove our point regardless).I apologize for any ruddiness.
 
  • #160
qsa said:
I think you will do well by helping to clean up your own society. The Iranians will take care of their own. No need to fake concerns. One billion people are hungry tonight.

qsa said:
Sorry if I was misunderstood. I like all the people of the world especially western ones since I have lived with them most of my adult life. I usually do not participate in forums It takes too much time to explain (I do read once in a while to update on people’s minds). But I found the root of all the disputes is in knowing enough details (matched to the statement being made) and in the real purpose of the arguments (if understanding the issue is fundamental or we just want to prove our point regardless).I apologize for any ruddiness.
russ_watters said:
I've put some effort into cleaning up this thread to keep the off-topic rants down. For the new members, this is a good thread on an important and historic event. Don't ruin it by injecting these off topic rants into the discussion. And consider the purpose of your membership on PhysicsForums.

For the existing members, try to avoid responding to these rants and instead report them. I've also contributed by responding and I'll try to stop as well. I know it can be tough...

I never used the report functionality .. I believe you are going off topic.

The Iranians will take care of their own.
That's what I was talking about. I don't think authorities will change now - they claimed elections were not rigged. Encouraging the opposition would only result in the losses of more lives but I don't think that would change anything.
 
  • #161
rootX said:
I never used the report functionality .. I believe you are going off topic.


That's what I was talking about. I don't think authorities will change now - they claimed elections were not rigged. Encouraging the opposition would only result in the losses of more lives but I don't think that would change anything.

I agree with you ,that is why I think there is no easy way to know if outsiders can help or hurt. Iran is a young democracy of a sort, they will learn from their mistakes,maybe.
 
  • #162
Was the election result a deliberate provocation by the conservatives to bring the reformists on the streets? The election results were so outrageous that you would almost have to believe this.


You can imagine that the government wanted to silence the opposition at this time when they could still do it, rather than the opposition gaining power and then slowly having to sit and watch how Iran becomes a secular state. If in the future they wanted to intervene, it would be too late.


So, perhaps the government thought: "Let's have a Tiananmen moment right now. Let's not rig the votes a little by letting Ahmadinejad win by 1%, let's instead give him a huge lead".


The government can monitor cell phone traffic and the internet, so they would have gained a lot of intelligence about the opposition. The people who would be inclined to defect to the opposition would have done so. The government thus knows who is loyal and who is not. They can now take repressive measures against the people who are not loyal to the regime.


On the foreign policy front there are also advantages. The US will now find it difficult to offer to Iran to lift sanctions in exchange for Iran giving up uranium enrichment. The US position in this dispute will thus be weakened, as it is the US that wants something from Iran here, not the other way around.
 
  • #164
IMO:

What Iran has learned is that the genie is out of the bottle. As a result of the information age, the "Great Satan" nonsense will continue to strain credibility such that change is a foregone conclusion. It is really just a matter of how, and how fast it happens.

The Iranian people will not tolerate a police state - they are much too sophisticated for that and dictators can no longer hide their actions. Also, now the opposition has an entire field of martyrs.

It will become more and more clear that the American people, the West in general, and the Iranian people, are already great friends at heart. The only thing getting in the way now is the time it will take for the politics to catch up.
 
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  • #165
Count Iblis said:
Was the election result a deliberate provocation by the conservatives to bring the reformists on the streets? The election results were so outrageous that you would almost have to believe this.

After reading the Khameini Prayer speech from last week, I am afraid that the clerics must think the people really are stupid enough to accept concocted tallies. The hope I suspect was that they couldn't suffer a close election, because a run-off might be a bit too much given the elevated interest and the growing reform for women's rights. So ... I guess if it was going to be dial-a-result already, then they likely figured in for a penny, in for a rial.

Unfortunately I think, regardless of the short term, there is a guaranteed long term loss for the current ruling clique. On the one hand they want to embrace technology, they want the atom bomb, ... but to do all of that they need highly skilled workers. That means education. That means connectivity. That means people thinking for themselves and not just taking orders. That means democracy is an inevitable consequence, regardless of their repression.

I think they only fool themselves if they think that they can continue indefinitely to rule by force. And in this the clerics make themselves hypocrites, if they choose the side of repression against the people. Choosing secular power, over theology. Once again power corrupts, and even the Supreme Leader, apparently lacks the wisdom and the strength to resist its intoxication. The sands of progress are weighing daily against them. And they grow old, while the legions of the young swell and get ever more educated.
 
  • #166
It will become more and more clear that the American people, the West in general, and the Iranian people, are already great friends at heart. The only thing getting in the way now is the time it will take for the politics to catch up.

Most people in the world are friends with one another, it is just politicians and their propaganda machines that drive a wedge between possible friendship. Unfortunately, both the US and Iran have politicians who have an innate distrust of one another. The world will certainly be a better place when that distrust is replaced with friendship.

I think they only fool themselves if they think that they can continue indefinitely to rule by force. And in this the clerics make themselves hypocrites, if they choose the side of repression against the people. Choosing secular power, over theology. Once again power corrupts, and even the Supreme Leader, apparently lacks the wisdom and the strength to resist its intoxication

Unfortunately, you probably will see Iran ruled by a theocracy for at least the next 10-15 years. Already the 'green revolution' is gradually dissipating because many Iranians, no matter how brave, cannot bear to see fellow countrymen mowed down indiscriminately by a brutal security force. And there still is not enough support, they need a few high ranking officials and clerics to speak out against the regime. But these protests are the seeds of a revolution in the making just like the overthrow of the Shah. Things do not happen quickly, they take time and the regime is doomed to collapse.

Was the election result a deliberate provocation by the conservatives to bring the reformists on the streets? The election results were so outrageous that you would almost have to believe this.

Well, the Iranian regime probably expected a few protests which could be handled easily but they were taken aback by the sheer number and support from a few powerful figures within the establishment. I think they wanted to show the world and the reformists that no one can challenge the regime and attempt to send a message that Iran is strong, united and hates Western influence. Well, it did backfire spectacularly!
 
  • #167
I went to a protest in Westwood tonight. The support is huge here because there is such a big Iranian community. The crowds seem to grow every day, and I hope the pictures are making it back to Iran.
 
  • #168
There's irony here.

Iranians learned the power of the press and overthrew the Shah, 30 years ago. The streets would be quite. Western cameras arrived ready to roll. The crowds would gather. "Death to the Shah." "Death to America." Chanting and gesturing to the cameras. US flags could materialize to be burned.

When the cameras stopped rolling, the crowds would peaceful disperse to resume their suspended business.

The sons and daughters have learned from the stories of the parents to overthrow what their parents have made.
 
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  • #169
Ivan Seeking said:
The Iranian people will not tolerate a police state

Tolerance? Tolerance has nothing to do with it. Power to change does.

- they are much too sophisticated for that

How does intolerance derive from 'sophistication'? Do you mean disillusionment?
 
  • #171
Then comes this reference:
"The city is on lockdown, and we are like sheep ready to be slaughtered," said one Teherani in a brief telephone interview. "It is important for us to be prepared and to have protection," he added, implying an effort to obtain arms. "Anyway, 40 days from Saturday's bloodshed" - a key symbolic day of mourning - "we will be ready."
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1245184920016&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Not exactly the way Gandhi approached things.
 
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  • #172
US Rescinds Invitations to Iranian Diplomats
By David Gollust
State Department
24 June 2009

The Obama administration said Wednesday it has rescinded invitations to Iranian diplomats to attend July 4 U.S. Independence Day celebrations at American diplomatic missions around the world. The State Department said an Iranian presence at such events would be incongruous with a celebration of American values.
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-06-24-voa58.cfm

Apparently it would be lost on them in any event.
 
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  • #173
LURCH said:
This is for anyone who wants to take an active role:

I don't know how much of this is true, so could someone please verify?

As most of you know, most of the news coming out of Iran is coming via the Internet, especially social websites like Twitter, Facebook, etc.. News through "official channels" is notoriously unreliable, as the government controls the media. The government is also trying to control the Internet channels, and attempting to track down Iranians who post on the social networks.

Anyone who wants to help, and has an account on one of the social networks (or is willing to open an account, as I have) can simply open their "profile," change their location to "Tehran," and their local time to GMT + 3:30. Many bloggers, Facebook ers', and Twits (is that the correct personal form?) Are doing this in the hopes that, every time they post, it gives the Iranian government one more thing to track down. The idea is to introduce hundreds of millions of decoys into the hunt, making their task impossible.

or
http://iran.whyweprotest.net/
 
  • #174
Disorganized unrest from yesterday apparently.
The current regime must know they are in deep doody at this point. They don't look to be in such firm control, at least in the streets. I was reading that they are showing lots of films now on the state TV stations to hopefully occupy people at home ... just like the Shah did in 1979. Khameini might want to think for a moment about how that worked out for the Shah.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD13WNKNGQk
 
  • #175
If divisions spread to the security forces and the army as it did at the time of the Shah, then things will change rapidly. Otherwise I don't think anything will change.
 

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