Is now a good time to invest in solar?

[russ_watters]

Maybe. But then looking at the full ten year period I'd be surprised if the -37% per decade declining trend didn't continue (5.4-3.4)/5.4. Also those prices are not corrected for inflation. So the 2001 price in http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=5.4&year1=2000&year2=2010", giving a 50% per decade trend in real terms.

So a ten year interval is more useful than the 3 year interval from your previous post? Would the 10 year peariod from 1995-2005 give a similar figure? What was the decrease the previous decade? How long has this trend been going on?

I just get very antsy seeing stats and predictions like this because it's been an MO for enviro activists and bad reporters to misuse statistics to imply unlikely and even impossible advances in wind and solar power growth...not so prevalent as it used to be as those trends have mostly broken, but the internet it still littered with bad claims about advances in solar and wind. When a market - any market - is tiny and changing so fast, it is easy to get caught-up in misleading or even meaningless percentage changes. For example:

“Solar is now the fastest growing energy industry in the U.S., employing nearly 100,000 Americans and generating billions of dollars of economic growth for our economy,” President and CEO of the SEIA Rhone Resch writes.

By 2015, as you can see in the graph above, the solar industry is expected to grow several times over, perhaps even reaching a total of 10 GW of installed solar power capacity, enough to power 2 million homes.

“We can install so much solar energy that we will eliminate the need for any new coal or nuclear power plants in the U.S. ever again,” Resch writes.

http://cleantechnica.com/2010/10/13/solar-power-blowing-up-in-the-united-states/

Just please don't get caught-up in the same type of fallacy.

Here's an article from August of 2008 that seems to have accurately predicted the past three years of drop and also predicts we've already seen most of the drop expected by 2015 (ie, the next 5 years won't see anywhere near the drop of the last 3). And it may even level off by 2015

FOR 40 years or so, the price of solar panels fell steadily, as volumes grew and technology improved. But in 2004 Germany enormously increased subsidies for solar power, prompting a surge in demand. The supply of pure silicon, the main component of most solar cells, did not keep pace. Its price rose from $25 a kilogram in 2003 to as much as $250 this year, abruptly halting the downward march in the price of panels. If making energy from sunlight is ever to become as cheap as burning fossil fuels, the price of silicon will have to fall.

New Energy Finance, a research firm, expects the output of silicon for the solar industry almost to double next year. It has asked big buyers and sellers what prices they have agreed on this year for silicon to be delivered in the future. The responses suggest that participants in the industry expect prices to fall by more than 40% next year, and over 70% by 2015 (see chart).

http://www.economist.com/node/12010071?story_id=12010071

The accompanying graph shows the following silicon prices ($/kg):
2008 $200
2009 $120 -40%
2010 $90 -25%
2011 $80 -11%
2012 $70 -12%
2013 $60 -14%
2014 $55 -8%
2015 $53 -2%

Now I'm not sure what fraction of the cost is represented by the commodity but if the above ratios hold, it could be 40-50%. That means the overall drop in panel prices from 2010 to 2015 would be 13-17%, with prices going pretty much flat after that.

 

[mheslep]

So a ten year interval is more useful than the 3 year interval from your previous post?

Yes. That's >3x more data over time, so we have more a similarly increased confidence in its prediction power, but of course no guarantee that the trend will continue.

Would the 10 year peariod from 1995-2005 give a similar figure? What was the decrease the previous decade? How long has this trend been going on?

I don't have older data from the same source, but there is http://www.1366tech.com/v2/" going back to the 70s from a long time PV technology (not a manufacturer) researcher/MIT prof and entrepreneur, PV energy cost not power this time. He also presented the information in Congressional testimony:

I just get very antsy seeing stats and predictions like this because it's been an MO for enviro activists and bad reporters to misuse statistics to imply unlikely and even impossible advances in wind and solar power growth...not so prevalent as it used to be as those trends have mostly broken, but the internet it still littered with bad claims about advances in solar and wind. When a market - any market - is tiny and changing so fast, it is easy to get caught-up in misleading or even meaningless percentage changes.

I agree there's hype surrounding the business and claims warrant skepticism. The solarbuzz industry survey is the best (ie oldest, continuous, best known) I know of; I'm certainly open to counter data.

Here's an article from August of 2008 that seems to have accurately predicted the past three years of drop and also predicts we've already seen most of the drop expected by 2015 (ie, the next 5 years won't see anywhere near the drop of the last 3). And it may even level off by 2015
http://www.economist.com/node/12010071?story_id=12010071

Thanks, will look at that later.

Edit: take another look at the article. The Si fall is from a bubble, caused by the German PV demand driven by their subsidies that kicked in 2004 which caught production unprepared. The year before, in 2003, the price of Si was $25/kg.

The accompanying graph shows the following silicon prices ($/kg):
2008 $200
2009 $120 -40%
2010 $90 -25%
2011 $80 -11%
2012 $70 -12%
2013 $60 -14%
2014 $55 -8%
2015 $53 -2%

Now I'm not sure what fraction of the cost is represented by the commodity but if the above ratios hold, it could be 40-50%. That means the overall drop in panel prices from 2010 to 2015 would be 13-17%, with prices going pretty much flat after that.

Yes I read from some of the same sources that for Si PV panels, PV grade Si currently accounts for ~half of the cost of the total panel; perhaps it used to be much more. It's not clear from the Economist chart what form of Si they are pricing; semiconductors require very high (~99.9%) purity. Many of the historical technology improvements also correlate with the drop in price. Several of those impact the amount of Si required, or just increase PV cell efficiency (2X increase over ~20 years). For instance, the stock Si shipped to a PV mfn comes in the form of expensive http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/59/Polycrystalline_silicon_rod.jpg/220px-Polycrystalline_silicon_rod.jpg" . The PV mfn then cut the ingots into PV cell wafers, wasting a substantial amount of Si as dust which can not be economically reused. Then came ultra thin wire saws (see the above PV energy chart), making the wafer cuts much more efficient, which would allow drop in the kWh per panel price, completely independent of stock Si prices.

 

[mheslep]

On the the Cleantechnica piece on SEIA:

“Solar is now the fastest growing energy industry in the U.S., employing nearly 100,000 Americans and generating billions of dollars of economic growth for our economy,” President and CEO of the SEIA Rhone Resch writes.

Don't know about fastest growing. Could be. The revenue in the billions must be correct, as the US market 2010 was market was that large in just panels alone, not including the fabrication machinery sales led by US giant Advanced Materials.

By 2015, as you can see in the graph above, the solar industry is expected to grow several times over, perhaps even reaching a total of 10 GW of installed solar power capacity,

I assume this refers to solar PV only, which is now ~1GWp total in the US, as solar PV plus thermal was already 8GW total a couple years ago. That requires a ~35% annual US installation growth rate to reach 10GWp cumulative in five years from the current ~1GWp. Given the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ge_systems_in_planning_or_under_construction", along with residentials like Artman's here, I'd say 10GWp total by 2015 is likely.

enough to power 2 million homes.

Bogus. Not by solar alone, even if source is concentrated solar thermal with storage.

“We can install so much solar energy that we will eliminate the need for any new coal or nuclear power plants in the U.S. ever again,” Resch writes

Bogus x 2.

 

[Artman]

Bogus x 2

Yup.

Solar is currently only a supplement and can reduce the need for auxiliary coal plant operation. If enough solar installations are placed in operation it may prolong the time until the need to add more nuclear or coal generating plants, but the grid needs to meet its demand, even at night and cloudy days.

As of today our system is at 11,100 kWh and has exceeded design expectations by 100 kWh for the year. Still a few weeks left to generate before the anniversary of putting it online. We went online on the 21st of January 2010.

 

[WhoWee]

It's been 6 months - does anyone have any updated info?

 

[dlgoff]

It's been 6 months - does anyone have any updated info?

He's probably partying with all his energy savings money. But yea. Update please.

 

[David Morrow]

Hello all, first time here, am doing a research paper for undergrad degree. Renewable energy, here is my question, The power out of a small pv inverter is suppose to push its energy onto the grid past the net meter, how does this current get past the first step down transformer if that transformer has 7200 V coming into it from the other side?

 

[mheslep]

Hello all, first time here, am doing a research paper for undergrad degree. Renewable energy, here is my question, The power out of a small pv inverter is suppose to push its energy onto the grid past the net meter, how does this current get past the first step down transformer if that transformer has 7200 V coming into it from the other side?

The transformer can move energy in both directions. That is, the low voltage from you inverter is eventually stepped up the the HV side of transformer.

 

[Artman]

Wow, more than 6 months. Sorry about that. Time for an update.

It's been about a year and six months since we went solar. A few new things have happened: the electric company zeroed our meter on the anniversary date for our connection or there abouts. It's hard to tell from the records, we check our meter daily, but we apparently hooked up at a good time because we were nearly at zero then anyway, which is what you want. We were bouncing back and forth across the zero line for a few days.

We also put in a heat pump (more on that in a later post) and a heat pump water heater, and more insulation, so our house is all electric currently, with oil heat backup. With the addition of the more efficient HP and the HP H2O heater, we've been still gaining ground as we did last year through the year down at about 520 kWh below zero. Not bad, and comfort is great.

Got to go, more later.

Sorry it's been so long.

 

[dlgoff]

Wow, more than 6 months. Sorry about that. Time for an update.

It's been about a year and six months since we went solar. A few new things have happened: the electric company zeroed our meter on the anniversary date for our connection or there abouts. It's hard to tell from the records, we check our meter daily, but we apparently hooked up at a good time because we were nearly at zero then anyway, which is what you want. We were bouncing back and forth across the zero line for a few days.

We also put in a heat pump (more on that in a later post) and a heat pump water heater, and more insulation, so our house is all electric currently, with oil heat backup. With the addition of the more efficient HP and the HP H2O heater, we've been still gaining ground as we did last year through the year down at about 520 kWh below zero. Not bad, and comfort is great.

Got to go, more later.

Sorry it's been so long.

Thanks for the update. Can't wait to hear about your other improvements; especially the heat pump water heater.

 

[mheslep]

I see the SREC price for NJ continues to hold above $0.60 / kWh, by far the highest in the US, while the price has collapsed elsewhere.
http://www.srectrade.com/new_jersey_srec.php

 

[WhoWee]

Thanks for the update. Can't wait to hear about your other improvements; especially the heat pump water heater.

Yes, what type of booster is on the water heater?

 

[Naty1]

I just posted about a NJ alternative approach here:

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=3483872#post3483872


"I am having my home evaluatehttp by SunRun, Home Depot and bpsolar. There was a booth in a Home Depot store in NJ.

The "deal in brief": I supply the roof area for solar and they get permits, build, install, maintain and pay for the entire solar system. Then they sell me power under a 20 year contract at a discount to PSE&G power. Unless I have to modify my roof or replace shingles, there is no out of pocket expenditure for me."

 

[WhoWee]

I just posted about a NJ alternative approach here:

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=3483872#post3483872


"I am having my home evaluatehttp by SunRun, Home Depot and bpsolar. There was a booth in a Home Depot store in NJ.

The "deal in brief": I supply the roof area for solar and they get permits, build, install, maintain and pay for the entire solar system. Then they sell me power under a 20 year contract at a discount to PSE&G power. Unless I have to modify my roof or replace shingles, there is no out of pocket expenditure for me."

Are you replacing the roof now/first?

 

[Naty1]

I have to be a preliminary site evaluation, be approved to participate, then an engineering evaluation...I have no data yet so I am open.

I am going to post in the thread I started so as not to disrupt this great discussion...I am posting some interesting information as soon as I sign off here.

"Are you replacing the roof now/first?"

Depends on engineering evaluation and cost...in theory, I can remove and replace just the upper portion,south facing side, of my four roof surfaces. Roof shingles should be good for another 15 years or so I guess.

 

[Naty1]

I see the SREC price for NJ continues to hold above $0.60 / kWh, by far the highest in the US, while the price has collapsed elsewhere.
http://www.srectrade.com/new_jersey_srec.php

Can you explain your post...Looks like in September rates dropped to $167!, although I do not understand such a huge change...

 

[dlgoff]

Can you explain your post...Looks like in September rates dropped to $167!, although I do not understand such a huge change...

I'm glad you found this thread. I think you need to be careful with this:

...they sell me power under a 20 year contract at a discount to PSE&G power.

You will probably get very little savings. It might be better to rent a room.

 

[Naty1]

You will probably get very little savings.

could be,,,the Home Depot rep mentioned 15% to 20%...
I'm either "selling" anything here nor recommending anything, just posting whatever I learn.

The discount given to me must depend on the SREC rate the company gets from selling power to PSE&G. If I can save money over an extended time, I'm interested enough to check out the details but not whole heartedly enthusiastic at this point.

What happens for example if the company goes bankrupt or fails to maintain the installation?? I can easily visualize them disappearing as the life expectency of the installation approaches...

"It's all in the fine print."

 

[WhoWee]

could be,,,the Home Depot rep mentioned 15% to 20%...
I'm either "selling" anything here nor recommending anything, just posting whatever I learn.

The discount given to me must depend on the SREC rate the company gets from selling power to PSE&G. If I can save money over an extended time, I'm interested enough to check out the details but not whole heartedly enthusiastic at this point.

What happens for example if the company goes bankrupt or fails to maintain the installation?? I can easily visualize them disappearing as the life expectency of the installation approaches...

"It's all in the fine print."

No doubt. Do they require a minimum average usage or a guarantee of usage?

 

[OmCheeto]

"It's all in the fine print."

I would definitely scan in the contract and post it here. I can understand the tax incentive for businesses to own, and depreciate, their property, while selling you a commodity over a long term period.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVwWE_WOY0Q".

ps. I traded a solar panel installation(50 watts) for an air conditioner last week. But the damn kid said it would take him years for the system to pay off when I told him he'd have to invest $60 for a deep cycle battery. I was like; "Dude. I'm trading you a $250 solar panel for a $100 beat up old air conditioner... The sun shines during the day. You want to power your lights at night. You need a place to store all that energy. When the power goes out, due to a hurricane or something, you'll have the only house in the neighborhood with the lights still on. That's freakin' braggin' rights dude!". I'm still waiting on his response.

pps. don't know if you are a facebook kind of person, but the following made me smile yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/oevadotorg...838638019.165959.138510433019&type=1&theater"

 

[mheslep]

Can you explain your post...Looks like in September rates dropped to $167!, although I do not understand such a huge change...

Yes that was back in July. The new data does show a huge drop in SREC price as you say. I can't explain the drop, but it highlights a concern with SREC options - no guarantee on the future price at which you can sell your solar electricity. Actually I suppose it was bound to happen. That state could not afford to pay out at 4X the price of regular electricity for too long. This drop is a point in favor of the 20 year contract people. The SREC prices become their problem not yours.

There are a number of companies doing these deals in the US. Until recently, the big ones have been on the West coast.Edit: Here's a backstory on PPA company SolarCity. There's been a lot of interest from commercial business in PPAs
http://www.technologyreview.com/tr35/profile.aspx?trid=970&mod=tr35_riverofnames
http://www.solarcity.com/commercial/portfolio/manufacturing/

 

[mheslep]

I'm glad you found this thread. I think you need to be careful with this:
You will probably get very little savings. It might be better to rent a room.

Why do you say this? His out of pocket is zero in a PPA, if he wants. Only concern that comes to mind is a turn over in the event of a house sale. But then, resale value needs to be considered for any modification done to the house, solar's no different.

 

[Naty1]

Actually I suppose it was bound to happen. That state could not afford to pay out at 4X the price of regular electricity for too long.

Iagree: That's the major thing I could not understand when I considered my own solar installation several years ago...that and well over $5/watt first cost at the time...it makes NO sense for government to subsidize relatively wealthy individual homeowners via tax credits and paying higher rates for electricity for otherwise uneconomical solar energy...somebody has to provide money to do that...those who pay regular electric rates. It's another silly big government waste.

Can you explain your post...Looks like in September rates dropped to $167!, although I do not understand such a huge change...

Yes that was back in July

Thanks, just wanted to check as I had not looked at rates in a long time...

Only concern that comes to mind is a turn over in the event of a house sale.

If a potential buyer gets an electric discount, it should be attractive; if not, I'm screwed. Another issue I posted in my own thread: any tax assesment on solar?? I don't remember...and that can always change.

 

[Naty1]

I just went to the official NJ website on SREC rates and there is no decline in rates reflected there:

http://www.njcleanenergy.com/renewab...g/srec-pricing

?


Some interesting SREC background here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Renewable_Energy_Certificates

"In addition to providing cash flow security and stability, long-term SREC contracts are often required by banks or other lending institutions unwilling to accept market and legislative risk associated with SREC markets..."

 

[dlgoff]

Why do you say this?

Because of this.

"It's all in the fine print."

 

[Naty1]

You will probably get very little savings.

I got an initial estimate of 33%. More information in my separate thread.

Artman:
Are you able to utilize solar electricity during a commercial power outage with your system? If so, how is that achieved. Apparently most installations don't provide that and I'm trying to find out why. Thanks.

 

[Artman]

I got an initial estimate of 33%. More information in my separate thread.

Artman:
Are you able to utilize solar electricity during a commercial power outage with your system? If so, how is that achieved. Apparently most installations don't provide that and I'm trying to find out why. Thanks.

No, grid tied system inverters actually mimic the sine wave they get from the grid to convert to alternating current. When the grid is down we have no power.

I was considering looking into an emergency generator and automatic transfer switch to lock out the grid so we don't electrocute a lineman to allow the solar to supplement the generator during the daylight hours. Anyone know if this would work?

SREC prices are way down. I think the reason is the supply of SRECs has increased to a point where the demand has reduced. the last time we checked it was around $276.00 in August, down from $536.00 in July. Drastic change. I don't recommend going solar to anyone at this time. Although, I am actually able to live more comfortably without it costing us more. We kept our AC set on 75 deg F all summer and our meter still went backwards. We are down at about -944 kWh as of this morning.

Due to our conversion to heatpump water heater and improved insulation and high efficiency heat pump HVAC system, we have additional savings in oil costs, but we are also still out more first costs for this new equipment.

The heatpump water heater is a GE Hybrid:

http://www.geappliances.com/heat-pump-hot-water-heater/"

Nice unit. No complaints at all about it so far. Noticed a drop in electric usage immediately after putting it into operation.

After the heatpumps and increased insulation, our electric usage is down from about 30 kWh a day to around 20 kWh a day average.

 

[mheslep]

...

SREC prices are way down. I think the reason is the supply of SRECs has increased to a point where the demand has reduced. the last time we checked it was around $276.00 in August, down from $536.00 in July. ...

? I see $167 in August. Isn't that below the grid rates in NJ?
http://www.srectrade.com/new_jersey_srec.php

Edit: yes, apparently grid rate is 18c/kwh
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3484807&postcount=3

 

[Artman]

http://www.nj.com/salem/index.ssf/2011/04/construction_under_way_on_larg.html"

SRECs are issued once a solar facility has generated 1,000-kilowatt hours of energy, and then are sold to companies who lack solar energy production.

Electric producers are required to yield a certain amount of solar energy by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU), and if they do not, they must buy SRECs.

The going rate for those certificates, which are traded on the open market, is around $400 to $450 each.

The Pilesgrove solar project is expected to generate about 27,000 certificates a year. So in addition to the energy that can be sold, the companies can generate around $11 million per year by selling the certificates.

Not at $167 they won't, that's only about $4.5 million.

Too many huge solar farms and communities with solar panels on every lightpost. They're killing the market for the little guy.

My numbers came from last month's email from SRECtrade. So, yeah, they're outdated, darn it.

 

[mheslep]

Keep in mind that the little guy in the end pays for those SRECS. The electric producers don't buy SRECs using their hidden pot of gold, they pass the cost on via electric rates, or the state of NJ does via taxes.

 

[Artman]

What concerns me is the double dipping from the utility companies. The SREC program has restrictions imposed on the "little guy" that do not seem to be imposed on utilities.

Little guy can't sell their overproduction for retail rates.

The utilities can sell their overproduction for retail rates.

Little guy gets their meter's zeroed at their anniversary. This is because they can take advantage of the SREC program so the utilities supposedly have paid something for the solar power. If this benefit disappears (with a one year drop from near $700 to $166 disappearance is right around the corner), I don't want my meter zeroed.

The utilities can generate and sell as much as they want supposedly because they are the ones buying the SRECs.

Now the utilities are selling SRECs to their competition. How is that right?

Shouldn't their solar farms only count against their SREC requirements? Then perhaps any production in excess of those requirements be sold. Otherwise it's double dipping. Triple dipping if you consider that money gained from SREC sales to competition benefits them in straining their competition's income.

 

[mheslep]

Perhaps I do not understand the SREC program, but I thought it is _only_ the utilities that buy the SRECs, as mandated by law; it is the utilities that make the market demand for SRECs and no one else. Also, the utilities can only sell as much power as the consumers use (the load). They can not, in effect, generate as much power as they like and zap it into the ether for a fee.

 

[Artman]

Updates:
We had one month where we needed to buy $130.00 of electricity this winter. We raised the heat pump to 67 deg F as a constant and did no night setback this year. Our secondary heat source is our oil hot water baseboard heat. With the constant 67 deg temp, the heat pump did not have to kick in the second stage much at all this year. We spent only $30 for oil. So, for our +-1200 sf 60 year old house we only needed $160 for heat and electricity this whole year (from April to April).

The solar system is still generating at design ratings we have not noticed a drop in performance yet. As of right now the system has generated 24,965 kWh (design was for 11,000 per year and we went online in January 2 years ago).

I noticed that the worst period for solar generation has been late fall early winter (no big surprise there) however, I am surprised that Spring did not seem similarly bad.

SRECs have plummeted to $125.00 as of our last sale, which was last night.

All in all, still glad we put in the solar system.

 

[OmCheeto]

...we only needed $160 for heat and electricity this whole year (from April to April).

I paid that each month, for the last 6 months.

All in all, still glad we put in the solar system.

I'm glad you did too.

ps. I'm going to get banned for the following, as I have investments in Alcoa...

I wish we could send you some of our power, during the cold days:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57424547/bpa-orders-nw-wind-farms-to-curtail-production/
April 30, 2012
The Bonneville Power Administration twice ordered Pacific Northwest wind farms to cut production in recent days because it has a surplus of power from hydroelectric dams.

And it's been going on for years...

tards...