Is Offshore Oil Drilling Truly Safe?

[russ_watters]

Here's a sketch of a relief well: http://rovicky.files.wordpress.com/2006/08/relief-well-2.jpg

A few components/differences:
1. The relief well doesn't actually go all the way into the reservoir (is there a reisk of not judging the depth correctly?) but rather intersects the main well.
2. Based on #1, obviously the relief well comes after the main well. They can be started and drilled more or less simultaneously, but the relief well has to be behind the primary well.
3. Once drilled and connected, you just have a two-outlet, headered-together set of pipes. At the top of each, they look absolutely identical and at the bottom where they join, the pressures are identical. Each has to have a blowout preventer on it and each carries similar risk of a blowout.
4. The point of the relief well is to do exactly what was supposed to be done with the primary well beforee the BP supervisor had the drilling "mud" removed from the well: Since the "mud" is heavy, it exerts pressure at the bottom to keep the oil and gas from being pushed-up by the pressure in the reservoir.

So what's the difference between the "top kill" and "bottom kill"? In a top kill, there are two big problems, neither condition existing for the "bottom kill":
1. The pipe pumping the "mud" into the well goes in the side of the BOP and the top of the BOP is open, so the "top kill" mud can just spill out the top of the well and onto the seafloor, relieving the pressure and not forcing the oil down. For the "bottom kill", if the "mud" goes up the maini well, it eventually just fills up the well and still ends up stopping the oil.
2. Since the "bottom kill" happens an extra couple of miles down, it has a lot more pressure above it to force the "mud" down and can also rely somewhat on the weight of the oil. Ie, the pressure differential at the bottom is smaller than it is at the wellhead.

 

[mheslep]

12-19,000 is a reasonable estimate for the size of the leak given the undersea plumes and the fact that much of the oil is evaporating.

I've just seen that an estimated 20% of the Valdez spill evaporated. I would expect that much or more in the Gulf's warmer temperatures.

 

[jreelawg]

I am skeptical, that the estimate of 12-19k barrels per day is accurate. Why has BP been legally forced to, against their will, just yesterday release high definition video of the BOP after being cut? If the leak is as small as the estimates, then why are they still trying to cover up the necessary evidence in making an educated estimate?

BP pays a fine based on how many barrels have leaked.

The best way to get them to start being honest, would be to start the fine at the worst case scenario of 250,000 barrels. That way the truth will actually benefit them, maybe they would actually cooperate.

 

[jreelawg]

If your logic about 2 wells failing has any truth to it, then how do casinos make money.

What are the odds of winning the lotto once, compared to winning it twice in a row?

 

[mheslep]

It is verrrrrry simple:
1. Hire inspectors and give them the resources needed to be inspectors.
2. Make penalties that stick and hurt. Fines and shutdowns.

I find tougher regulation alone unsatisfactory as a solution. Government oversight is always subject to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture" in this political world as we have amply seen in this case; there's no corollary that says paying inspectors more or increasing penalties does away with capture.

instead, I favor a free market approach. 1) Grant substantial property rights to fisherman and tourism businesses, etc. If they own they parts of the Gulf, they'll make it their business to watch the drillers. 2) Require very large insurance policies by the drillers that pay out to those impacted by the spill to avoid the excessive legal wrangling (we are about to see). No policy, or policy canceled and drilling stops. Insurance companies have ample incentives to watch the operation of their policy holders.

 

[Office_Shredder]

I find tougher regulation alone unsatisfactory as a solution. Government oversight is always subject to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture" in this political world as we have amply seen in this case; there's no corollary that says paying inspectors more or increasing penalties does away with capture.

instead, I favor a free market approach. 1) Grant substantial property rights to fisherman and tourism businesses, etc. If they own they parts of the Gulf, they'll make it their business to watch the drillers. 2) Require very large insurance policies by the drillers that pay out to those impacted by the spill to avoid the excessive legal wrangling (we are about to see). No policy, or policy canceled and drilling stops. Insurance companies have ample incentives to watch the operation of their policy holders.

So you expect fishermen to regulate the oil industry, insurance companies to gladly pay out ten digit settlements without a fight, and the host of laws that would be required to detail what ocean ownership entails to just work itself out (this in itself would require as much regulation as we currently have probably)

 

[Pattonias]

I find tougher regulation alone unsatisfactory as a solution. Government oversight is always subject to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture" in this political world as we have amply seen in this case; there's no corollary that says paying inspectors more or increasing penalties does away with capture.

instead, I favor a free market approach. 1) Grant substantial property rights to fisherman and tourism businesses, etc. If they own they parts of the Gulf, they'll make it their business to watch the drillers. 2) Require very large insurance policies by the drillers that pay out to those impacted by the spill to avoid the excessive legal wrangling (we are about to see). No policy, or policy canceled and drilling stops. Insurance companies have ample incentives to watch the operation of their policy holders.

I think the result of this would be the fishing industry being bought up by the oil industry and the oil industry having legal ownership of the Gulf.

 

[mheslep]

So you expect fishermen to regulate the oil industry,

You're missing the point, which is (1) to develop a self interested, local lobby to prevent the oil industry from dominating the political conversation as they apparently do now, and (2) threaten the drillers with much higher legal damages, high enough to essentially cause the forfeiture of the offending drillers business.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

BP stock has lost half of its value since the crisis began
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...25024&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:BP&ntsp=0

 

[mheslep]

insurance companies to gladly pay out ten digit settlements without a fight,

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2004/10/01/46438.htm"

 

[Office_Shredder]

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2004/10/01/46438.htm"

Payouts from hurricane damage is basically old news. All legal wrangling has been completed years ago, and everyone knows the drill. It's when something extraordinary happens that requires insurance payouts that it's worth the time of the insurance company to exploit any gray areas and ambiguities that might exist (precisely because people are unfamiliar with the procedures can such a thing happen

Like when a hurricane causes a levy to collapse... is it hurricane or flood damage?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...o-1-million-katrina-flood-victims-506294.html

Or whether the WTC was one or two terrorist attacks (also mentioned in that article)

Whatever legal loopholes BP is currently jumping through to avoid paying, an insurance company would be doing exactly the same thing

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It is hard to say how bad this will get. My impression is that a near complete collapse of the Gulf ecosystem is well within the range of possibilities; esp depending on the weather. It all depends on how lucky we get and which way the wind blows. So far, the winds have been shifting, which has helped to keep the oil out at sea. Hopefully this will continue and the most sensitive wetlands can be saved. But in any case, I strongly suspect that this is going to produce the most dedicated generation of environmentalists that we have ever seen. The images of oil-soaked birds, and what's to come, I fear, will be seared into the memories of children and young adults, all over the world. I guess if there is a silver lining to this nightmare, that would be it.

I predict that this event marks the final death blow to the good-ole-boy, drill-baby-drill mentality, and the anti-environment movement. I cannot believe that a reckless disregard for environmental concerns is an attitude to be found in US politics again; at least, not to a siginficant degree, and not until the next generation comes along with no memory of this event, but we should be safe for the next twenty years or so.

 

[drankin]

It is hard to say how bad this will get. My impression is that a near complete collapse of the Gulf ecosystem is well within the range of possibilities; esp depending on the weather. It all depends on how lucky we get and which way the wind blows. So far, the winds have been shifting, which has helped to keep the oil out at sea. Hopefully this will continue and the most sensitive wetlands can be saved. But in any case, I strongly suspect that this is going to produce the most dedicated generation of environmentalists that we have ever seen. The images of oil-soaked birds, and what's to come, I fear, will be seared into the memories of children and young adults, all over the world. I guess if there is a silver lining to this nightmare, that would be it.

I predict that this event marks the final death blow to the good-ole-boy, drill-baby-drill mentality, and the anti-environment movement. I cannot believe that a reckless disregard for environmental concerns is an attitude to be found in US politics again; at least, not to a siginficant degree, and not until the next generation comes along with no memory of this event, but we should be safe for the next twenty years or so.

I don't see this ending the "drill-baby-drill" attitude at all. We need to end our reliance on foreign oil. This accident doesn't change that. It will cause us to better scrutinize the process though.

 

[russ_watters]

If your logic about 2 wells failing has any truth to it, then how do casinos make money.

What are the odds of winning the lotto once, compared to winning it twice in a row?

That is exactly how casinos make money. I was going to suggest to Geigerlick that he never go to a casino or play the lottery!

Twice as many players means twice as high overall odds of a winner but twice as many games being played for a constant profit margin per game and double the overall profit.

 

[stewartcs]

It is hard to say how bad this will get. My impression is that a near complete collapse of the Gulf ecosystem is well within the range of possibilities; esp depending on the weather. It all depends on how lucky we get and which way the wind blows. So far, the winds have been shifting, which has helped to keep the oil out at sea. Hopefully this will continue and the most sensitive wetlands can be saved.

It's funny how everyone is so concerned with the wetlands now that BP has their checkbook open.

Coastal Louisiana experiences the greatest wetland loss in the nation, and delta wetlands are now disappearing at an average rate of 17 square miles per year or about 50 acres per day (Gosselink, 1984; Conner and Day, 1988; Barras et al., 2003).

50 acres per day and no one gives a damn. But let some oil spill on it and it's the end of the world. Just another example of how people use a disaster to push their personal and political agendas. It's pathetic if you ask me.

Why don't the environmentalist care any other time?

CS

 

[russ_watters]

You're missing the point, which is (1) to develop a self interested, local lobby to prevent the oil industry from dominating the political conversation as they apparently do now, and (2) threaten the drillers with much higher legal damages, high enough to essentially cause the forfeiture of the offending drillers business.

Problem: Since failures are so rare, there is essentially zero fear for a drilling company in liability. That's the whole problem that led to this disaster! They didn't make the logical connection between cutting the corners and a failure because they hadn't ever seen a failure result from cutting corners.

 

[russ_watters]

But in any case, I strongly suspect that this is going to produce the most dedicated generation of environmentalists that we have ever seen. The images of oil-soaked birds, and what's to come, I fear, will be seared into the memories of children and young adults, all over the world. I guess if there is a silver lining to this nightmare, that would be it.

That's my fear as well and a new generation of irrational environmentalists is most certainly not a good thing, as the anti-nuclear fiasco clearly demonstrates. We've lost 30 years of nuclear power development/expansion and replaced it with 30 years of fossil fuel expansion because of their bad judgement.

But the economic and environmental realities are different today than they were 30 years ago, so I have some hope that the same problem won't repeat.

I predict that this event marks the final death blow to the good-ole-boy, drill-baby-drill mentality, and the anti-environment movement.

Unlikely. Once the irrational radicals get out of college, the economic realities will take over and push them back toward rationality or at least mute their cries.

 

[russ_watters]

50 acres per day and no one gives a damn. But let some oil spill on it and it's the end of the world. Just another example of how people use a disaster to push their personal and political agendas. It's pathetic if you ask me.

Why don't the environmentalist care any other time?

CS

It's obvious to me, but not to everyone so I'll say it again: "environmentalists" don't care unless there is a disaster because they are irrational.

 

[turbo]

It's obvious to me, but not to everyone so I'll say it again: "environmentalists" don't care unless there is a disaster because they are irrational.

What a wonderful piece of unsupported dogma. I garden organically for the sake of the soil. I cut trees and burn them for heat. I shoot and eat animals.

People who care about sustainability are routinely trashed by people who have no appreciation for what is involved in living in a sustainable manner. Yes, I am an "environmentalist" because I want to preserve wild fisheries, and protect our environment. I also worked for over 20 years in the pulp and paper industry, much of the time as a consultant to some of the largest companies in the field.

If you want to engage in productive discourse, please drop the "environmentalist" and "hippie" comments. The world is not black and white.

 

[russ_watters]

What a wonderful piece of unsupported dogma.

I put "environmentalist" in quotes because I'm specifically talking about exactly what Ivan said and he made the point and I provided an additional example of the same problem. Heck, I'm pretty sure he's said it several times in this thread that accidents such as this generate passion. We're basically in agreement except in whether it is a good or bad thing!

I should also point out that there was recently a discussion about the Tea Party movement and this was also the basic complaint people had against it (the passionate ones are the irrational/extremists). That the same people don't realize that human nature works the same for the left wing as it does for the right is pretty funny to me.

If you want to engage in productive discourse, please drop the "environmentalist" and "hippie" comments. The world is not black and white.

That there may be other environmentalists who are not irrational and driven by fear and passion is not part of what I'm talking about, so don't take my harping on that group as a sign that I don't see that others exist. If you see signs of what I'm talking about in yourself, so be it, but I'm not going to discuss your particular mindset/action. I have no interest in making this personal and using you as en example of either group.

 

[turbo]

Russ, you continually harp on everything that is green, environmentalist, and "hippie". You get a free ride on PF, despite your inability to back up all the hyperbole. I consulted with pulp and paper industries that cut down and digested millions of trees while I was working with them. That doesn't mean that I don't want to see improvements.

Perhaps in another 20-30 years, you will gain some perspective.

 

[russ_watters]

Another example:

I posted this in my own thread, but thought it important enough to reproduce here:

Food for thought...

This sort of thing has been going on in Nigeria for decades and neither Europe or the US seems to care,
amazing: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/30/oil-spills-nigeria-niger-delta-shell"

Very sad...

Rhody...

This generated no responses here and doesn't make the news in the US even though the problem is far worse. Why? Because it isn't here, so people don't care. If the passion were rationally based, it would be based on the severity of the problem, not the sexyness of it being a local, well publicized problem.

 

[russ_watters]

Russ, you continually harp on everything that is green, environmentalist, and "hippie". You get a free ride on PF, despite your inability to back up all the hyperbole.

Do I? How many times in the past month have I used the word "hippie?" Do a search. Frankly, I shouldn't be letting people bully me as much as I am. Maybe I should put something about it back in my sig, but I don't tend to wear my opinions like a badge as many other members do. I'm not in this to stir up trouble, I'm in it because a rational/scientific approach to real world problems of all types matters to me.

What I harp on is unscientific behavior and it happens that this is one prominent movement that uses it as a primary modus operandi - and gets a lot of air time on this forum.

I consulted with pulp and paper industries that cut down and digested millions of trees while I was working with them. That doesn't mean that I don't want to see improvements.

Again, I don't care and I'm not going to make this personal.

Perhaps in another 20-30 years, you will gain some perspective.

Or perhaps in another 20-30 years, the irrational passion over this event will fade like it did for nuclear power. Hopefully, it won't take that long as the stakes are much higher than they were 30 years ago when TMI happened.

 

[dlgoff]

It's funny how everyone is so concerned with the wetlands now that BP has their checkbook open.



50 acres per day and no one gives a damn. But let some oil spill on it and it's the end of the world. Just another example of how people use a disaster to push their personal and political agendas. It's pathetic if you ask me.

Why don't the environmentalist care any other time?

CS

Hear hear. This is what I've been thinking from the beginning.

BTW Thanks for your outstanding explanations in the https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=405948" thread in the Engineering Systems & Design forums. You're the man IMO.

 

[mheslep]

Payouts from hurricane damage is basically old news. All legal wrangling has been completed years ago, and everyone knows the drill. It's when something extraordinary happens that requires insurance payouts that it's worth the time of the insurance company to exploit any gray areas and ambiguities that might exist (precisely because people are unfamiliar with the procedures can such a thing happen

The payoffs to Gulf residents might trigger on a spill of amount X, and X can be fairly small. Doesn't matter how responsible or careless was the driller, spill happens, insurance pays. The haggling would then come between the insurance company and the drillers to determine fault, and I don't really care how long that stays in court. Anyway, the payouts are somewhat beside the point. The main point is to avoid the spills in the first place by having the drilling operations over seen by someone has a large, enormous even, incentive to avoid spills, and having little or no incentive to get the oil out.

Like when a hurricane causes a levy to collapse... is it hurricane or flood damage?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...o-1-million-katrina-flood-victims-506294.html

Or whether the WTC was one or two terrorist attacks (also mentioned in that article)

Whatever legal loopholes BP is currently jumping through to avoid paying, an insurance company would be doing exactly the same thing

If you are making the point that insurance doesn't guarantee a quick payout 100% of the time, sure I agree. But the idea that insurance payoffs have any comparison to the amount of legal hassles involved in tort law suits is mistaken. The WTC haggling above makes my case, not yours. Though there was some dispute, the payoffs still occurred far, far faster than if the owners had to suit, say, the airlines for causing the crash (had it been an accident)

Look at the case of the spill in Alaska. Every single person claiming harm in order to receive reimbursement had to either get a lawyer, join a group led by lawyers, or fall under the the umbrella of the state of Alaska's law suits. Now if Exxon was required to hold insurance that paid off no fault to the State and anywhere near the spill, (paid for by an oil company fund), the insurance would almost absolutely have paid off most people immediately, no lawyers involved at that point. Later, the insurance company would have in turned have sued Exxon, maybe even canceled their (theoretical) policy.

 

[edward]

50 acres per day and no one gives a damn. But let some oil spill on it and it's the end of the world. Just another example of how people use a disaster to push their personal and political agendas. It's pathetic if you ask me.

Why don't the environmentalist care any other time?

CS

They do and they have. You just don't bother to read on the subject.

Coalition to Restore Coastal Louisiana (CRCL). Founded in 1988, CRCL was initially composed of environmental organizations and their representatives. Its membership now includes individuals and a growing number from business, industry, government, and the like. Its sole purpose is to further the protection of coastal wetlands. It does so by monitoring legislation that will or may impact wetlands, educating people about wetlands issues, and working with other NGOs and governments to enhance wetlands protection. It is considered by most to be the clearinghouse for wetlands thinking and action in Louisiana. Noteworthy publications include Coastal Louisiana: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow (CRCL, 1989); Coast Watcher’s Guide: How to Preserve and Protect Louisiana’s Wetlands and Coastal Zone (Clipp, 1995); and No Time to Lose. Facing the Future of Louisiana and the Crisis of Coastal Land Use (CRCL, 1999).

Link for source;

http://www.americaswetlandresources.com/background_facts/detailedstory/solutions.html

 

[mheslep]

They do and they have. You just don't bother to read on the subject.

Well they certainly don't get picked up on CNN/Fox every night to discuss the 50 acres of marsh lost daily in the Gulf due to erosion/development, nor have 'environmentalists' taken the trouble to post here on PF about the daily 50 acres.

 

[edward]

Well they certainly don't get picked up on CNN/Fox every night to discuss the 50 acres of marsh lost daily in the Gulf due to erosion/development, nor have 'environmentalists' taken the trouble to post here on PF about the daily 50 acres.

Wetland loss started with the Dams the Corp of engineers built to stop flooding. The silt from the floods replenished the Louisiana wetlands. There has been an ongoing battle to save the wetlands ever since.

The last time it was even considered newsworthy was when Katrina hit.

 

[mheslep]

Problem: Since failures are so rare, there is essentially zero fear for a drilling company in liability. That's the whole problem that led to this disaster! They didn't make the logical connection between cutting the corners and a failure because they hadn't ever seen a failure result from cutting corners.

That's why neighboring property rights and mandatory insurance works better. If I own a home next to a guy with a bunch of large dead trees or a large dog I think dangerous, I'm going to get involved and take some action, even if a tree's never fallen from next door nor has the dog ever bitten anyone and the owner has become complacent.

 

[mheslep]

The last time it was even considered newsworthy was when Katrina hit.

There we are, back at stewartcs's point.

 

[stewartcs]

Wetland loss started with the Dams the Corp of engineers built to stop flooding. The silt from the floods replenished the Louisiana wetlands. There has been an ongoing battle to save the wetlands ever since.

The last time it was even considered newsworthy was when Katrina hit.

That's not when the wetland "loss" started. It certainly doesn't help though. The main factors are due to people living in those areas and the sea level rising.

Human activities intended to reduce damage to life and property from climate extremes have unintentionally increased the vulnerability of coastal areas to climate change by altering the natural hydrologic functions of wetlands (National Research Council, 2005; CPRA, 2007).

These wetland ecosystems depend heavily on water availability, as does the region’s economic development. However, the natural capacity of coastal wetlands in the Gulf Coast region to store, distribute, and purify water has been greatly diminished by coastal development and the construction of water management systems

Although flood control projects provided temporary relief from flooding, they also interfered with the natural hydrological processes that are necessary to sustain the structure, function, and extent of wetland ecosystems and reduced the natural capacity of the wetlands to mitigate flooding (Boesch et al., 1994; Davis and Ogden, 1997).

Net wetland elevation is determined by the balance between soil building processes (accretion) and land sinking (soil subsidence) relative to the rate of sea-level rise. Wetland soils develop from and are sustained by mineral sediments carried by rivers and deposited by floods, and from organic material produced by plants within the wetland landscape. These soil-building processes enable wetlands to gain elevation (accrete) as sea-levels rise (Mitsch and Gosselink, 2000).

Human activities slow down accretion by regulating water flow and, therefore, sediment and nutrient supply. Humans also cause soil subsidence and erosion through such processes as groundwater extraction, oil and gas withdrawals, and dredging of navigation channels (Morton et al., 2003).

Natural compaction processes also contribute to subsidence. In effect, sea-level rise adds to the rate of subsidence as the sea surface rises relative to the land. In order for wetland elevation to remain stable or to rise, therefore, the rate of soil accretion must equal or exceed the combined rates of natural and human-induced soil subsidence plus sea-level rise.

So if environmentalist were really concerned they would be lobbying against anyone living in those areas instead of complaining only when someone leaves a soap box laying around for them to stand on.

CS

 

[stewartcs]

They do and they have. You just don't bother to read on the subject.

I do bother reading about the subject, too bad the environmentalist don't. They only see one view (the one that leads to them getting what they want) instead of an objective one.

Again, the whole point is that none of this (wetlands) matters until someone is available to point the finger at and say "hey, you're going to pay for this...it's your fault!".

When in reality, it's not their fault. The wetland problem has been around for a long time, way before the first drop of oil was spilled from MC252.

So why don't we see about it on the news unless there is some disaster associated with it? With Katrina, the US Government was in BP's position. Just another "person" with a check book who left a soap box laying around for someone to stand on to advance their personal and political views.

CS

 

[DavidSnider]

Well they certainly don't get picked up on CNN/Fox every night to discuss the 50 acres of marsh lost daily in the Gulf due to erosion/development, nor have 'environmentalists' taken the trouble to post here on PF about the daily 50 acres.

Why would they? There is no story there.

The news is entertainment. You might as well ask why there hasn't been an episode of 'House' that featured the Gulf Coast since katrina.

It's not the fault of environmentalists that the news won't let them on to say anything other than 'I told you so'.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Cripes. We are facing the biggest environmental disaster in US history, but the objections are that no one complains enough about the loss of wetlands? Get a grip. The loss of coastal wetlands has been a front-line issue for years now. No, CNN doesn't do a report every time we lose another 50 acres. The objection is nonsense.

I love the charge of "irrational environmentalists". It goes so well with the spill that is now thought to be 20k-40k barrels per day, [67 million gallons so far] with no solution until late August. I think this disaster proves once and for all, for any reasonable person, just who is irrational - anyone who can look at this and still make excuses and use evasive arguments, in order to defend the logic that got us here.

There is nothing like a big dose of reality - perhaps as much as a quarter of a billion gallons, or more, before we're done - to put things in the proper perspective.

What were those objections to Wereley's early estimates again? I guess it doesn't matter now.

It appears that the water temps off the NW coast of Africa have reached or are quickly reaching the hurricane trigger point, with a well-defined track right into the gulf. Again, I think the key temp is about 82 degrees F.

 

[mheslep]

What were those objections to Wereley's early estimates again? I guess it doesn't matter now.

That at 80k bbl/day they lacked a rationale basis (and still do).