- #36
DaveC426913
Gold Member
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Well, as I think you're pointing out, Occam's razor is a test for picking the likelihood between two theories, all other aspects of the theories being equal. In this case, they are not equal, not by a long shot. One has a preponderance of evidence, the other has (what is generally considered) an extreme paucity of evidence. So yeah, Occam's razor does not apply.But if you prefer a more mathematical vein, rather than a logical one, the event described is not statistically significant.zoobyshoe said:Actually Phinds asserted it was clearly evidence of a coincidence:
By which "clearly", he ruled out telepathy.
That's not a trivial statement. Because there is an aspect of this phenomenon that is out of control of the investigators (a hunch and a phone call), the first thing one must do is take into account the null hypothesis. Does the phenomenon fall outside normal distribution of events.
Well, it doesn't. Which means that, as far as investigating, there is actually nothing to investigate. Once you remove the statistical element of probability, you're left holding nothing at all.
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