Is Vaccination Necessary in the Age of Digital Singularity?

[rasmhop]

I think that's unfair. If nobody disagrees that the odds of my dying from swine flu are extremely low indeed... ridiculously low, then why should I give any special status to that potential death over all of the other very unlikely ones?

I disagree with your odds. I believe your odds of getting swine flu is probably above "almost 0%" whatever that means (my guess would be at least 1%, but I'm not a doctor of course). A potentially pandemic disease needs some sort of critical mass to become a pandemic and I don't believe we have reached that yet, and hope we won't. However I think there is a pretty large chance that it will happen and then the probability of getting swine flu is going to be pretty high. Also you're only evaluating the event that you die, but you also have to consider that 1) getting the swine flu, but not dieing, is likely an unpleasant event. 2) if a lot of people do like you, then the odds of it turning pandemic is much larger.

As for the comparison with getting shot: If there was a (medical) shot against getting shot and I was offered it for free, then I would certainly accept it.

Personally I'm getting my shot next Monday. One thing I don't really understand is why there are such ridiculous waiting times. Don't people reserve a time slot to get the shot, or do they just turn up? Personally I had a call from a nurse at the hospital who told me I was offered a for free shot and that I should set up a time with my GP within the next couple of weeks. My GP informs me that there may be 30mins of waiting, but that's it.

 

[Pagan Harpoon]

Wearing the small metal shield in my shirt pocket is equivalent to a vaccine against getting shot in that particular part of my chest.

I think that you overestimate the possibility of my getting swine flu, but we can't discuss that properly, I expect. I will accord no credence to the porposition that swine is or might be pandemic until I at least know of a single person who has or had it. Every case that has been reported to me has come through some sort of mass communication, the news and so on. I find that the fact that I don't know anyone who has told me that they know someone who knows someone who had swine flu is somewhat incongruent with the view of the situation that is being presented by the media.

 

[Sorry!]

Wearing the small metal shield in my shirt pocket is equivalent to a vaccine against getting shot in that particular part of my chest.

I think that you overestimate the possibility of my getting swine flu, but we can't discuss that properly, I expect. I will accord no credence to the porposition that swine is or might be pandemic until I at least know of a single person who has or had it. Every case that has been reported to me has come through some sort of mass communication, the news and so on. I find that the fact that I don't know anyone who has told me that they know someone who knows someone who had swine flu is somewhat incongruent with the view of the situation that is being presented by the media.

I've gotten swine flu and regular flu this year. I also know a few people who have gotten swine flu... Imagine that you're grandma had caught swine flu from someone she worked with and she died from it...

 

[Pagan Harpoon]

If that had happened, I expect that I might feel differently about it. Similarly, if my grandmother had died in a car crash recently, I would be wary of getting into a car, but that hasn't happened.

Edit - Ah, I see, your implication was different - however, I maintain my position. At the present, I have not been personally touched by this, so I can be perfectly logical about it - it is the responsibility of those at risk of death to have themselves vaccinated, if they don't and get the disease and die, that is their own lookout. If the situation that you described were to happen and that would obscure my view, that is irrelevant. A hypothetical situation of similar worth - what if I were put up for adoption when I was born and turned out a completely different person with a less logical mind, then my view would be different.

 

[rasmhop]

Wearing the small metal shield in my shirt pocket is equivalent to a vaccine against getting shot in that particular part of my chest.

Yes, and if the vaccine worked in that way I probably wouldn't bother to take it, but as the vaccine will actually protect me more like a bulletproof vest than a metal shield. I don't walk around with a metal shield in my pocket.

I think that you overestimate the possibility of my getting swine flu, but we can't discuss that properly, I expect. I will accord no credence to the porposition that swine is or might be pandemic until I at least know of a single person who has or had it. Every case that has been reported to me has come through some sort of mass communication, the news and so on. I find that the fact that I don't know anyone who has told me that they know someone who knows someone who had swine flu is somewhat incongruent with the view of the situation that is being presented by the media.

I totally agree that at the moment it isn't a pandemic and that it's blown out of proportions by the media. If we were 100% sure that the number of infections wouldn't increase dramatically, then I probably wouldn't bother. The reason I take the shot is that I believe it may become a pandemic. However you're probably right that at the moment laypeople (which I am) can't really have a rational discussion about the probabilities and I accept you choice to attribute a smaller probability to the event of you getting swine flu. Finally some anecdotal support: I actually know 2 people that were confirmed infected and plenty who believe they were, but were told that they should do nothing, but stay indoors and call the hospital in case the symptoms worsened considerably. I'm aware that anecdotal evidence isn't a rational basis for making a decision and that most people who believe they have the swine flu probably don't, but I thought I would provide a counterpoint to your "I don't know anyone infected".

 

[rootX]

Is there a number for people who got the flu shots but still got sick?

 

[Evo]

Waiting until everyone around you has the flu before you get the vaccine isn't a good idea. Although the vaccine becomes effective after only 2 weeks, the earlier in the season you can get it, the better.

I'm not allergic to eggs, so there is no reason for me to not get the vaccine. Get the shot and not get sick or not get it and risk getting sick. It's a no brainer to get the shot for me. Yes, the risk of getting the flu is extremely small, but the "real" flu, not the colds people get that they call the flu, is so painful, that not getting the vaccine doesn't even cross my mind.

I've only been getting the vaccine for the last few years since my second, and hopefully last bout of flu.

Now if they would develop a vaccine for clumsiness, I'd be perfect.

 

[lisab]

Wearing the small metal shield in my shirt pocket is equivalent to a vaccine against getting shot in that particular part of my chest.

I think that you overestimate the possibility of my getting swine flu, but we can't discuss that properly, I expect. I will accord no credence to the porposition that swine is or might be pandemic until I at least know of a single person who has or had it. Every case that has been reported to me has come through some sort of mass communication, the news and so on. I find that the fact that I don't know anyone who has told me that they know someone who knows someone who had swine flu is somewhat incongruent with the view of the situation that is being presented by the media.

About 50% of the employees in my building have had it (including me), and there were about 5 more out sick this week.

Full disclosure: no one went to the doctor to confirm it's H1N1. However, the CDC states on http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm" :

Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

So I think it's safe to assume that a flu-like illness spreading around an office at this time (with all the classic H1N1 symtoms) is likely H1N1.

 

[Sorry!]

What about what we were talking about earlier. The self-administered vaccinations what you guys think about that idea huh? Evo...lisa?

 

[lisab]

What about what we were talking about earlier. The self-administered vaccinations what you guys think about that idea huh? Evo...lisa?

Hmm, I must have missed those posts. By self-administered, you mean giving yourself a shot? Probably a bad idea.

But I think the issue isn't who gives the shot, it's whether you should get it or not.

I voted yes.

 

[Evo]

What about what we were talking about earlier. The self-administered vaccinations what you guys think about that idea huh? Evo...lisa?

It's silly, it takes just as long to hand someone a syringe of the vaccine as it does to inject them. The health department is starting to track who gets the vaccine so it makes even less sense to give it to someone and never know if they actually injected it.

It literally took less than two minutes for me to get my vaccine. I walked in, handed the woman my information sheet (for tracking), sat down, she did an alcohol swab, said "1,2,3", placed a bandaid over the injection, and it was over. Of course it was done privately at my place of employment and they scheduled appointments, they alloted 5 minutes per appointment, but it didn't take half of that.

 

[DaveC426913]

It literally took less than two minutes for me to get my vaccine.

Here, people have waited in line for as much as 7 hours.

 

[Evo]

Here, people have waited in line for as much as 7 hours.

Yes, it's a problem with the number of workers in a public clinic.

If you live in the US, Walgreens pharmacies give the shots and there are no lines. In areas where there are no Walgreens, other pharmacies offer the shots, even my grocery store gives them. My doctor gives them. I think there may be problems in Canada?

But are we talking seasonal flu shots or H1N1? I wonder if people realize that they are two different shots?

 

[rasmhop]

Here, people have waited in line for as much as 7 hours.

But it didn't take 7 hours to administer a shot. Obviously health clinics can't just put out a box of syringes for people to take. People will have to be given instruction on how to properly administer it, how to recognize bad reactions to the shot, what to do in case of adverse effects, etc. They will probably also have to show some id and be recorded in a database. In addition many people will have questions, and a lot of people are afraid enough of needles not to want to take it themselves. I would guess that we would see about as long a waiting time if people could self-administer, but with a much larger rate of incorrectly administered vaccines.

I personally take some medication that I have to inject on a biweekly basis using an auto-injector. I believe this is one of the simplest delivery systems for injections yet it took at least 10 minutes for a nurse to tell me all she had to and they required for my first shot to be administered at the hospital, and the second I could take myself but I had to be at the hospital so they could observe whether I was able to perform the injection correctly. I was also told that lots of people don't like to self-administer the injection. In addition I believe an auto-injector is fairly expensive and if we have to buy millions of them, then it could cost quite a lot and I doubt we can just give people ordinary syringes to perform the vaccine.

 

[NeoDevin]

I think there may be problems in Canada?

A big part of the problem was that they delayed approving the vaccine. Add to this a few well publicised healthy teens dying, and demand went way up.

My wife waited 4 hours in line today to get hers.

 

[noblegas]

No. Nobody should be vaccinated against their will. Besides, all US citizens do not have the same level of immunity to the new strain of flu. Some americans immune system will easily fight it off and some immune system will have a hard time fighting off the strain of flu.

 

[Evo]

No. Nobody should be vaccinated against their will. Besides, all US citizens do not have the same level of immunity to the new strain of flu. Some americans immune system will easily fight it off and some immune system will have a hard time fighting off the strain of flu.

No one is being vaccinated against their will.

There is no natural immunity to the flu.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm

 

[OmCheeto]

About 50% of the employees in my building have had it (including me), and there were about 5 more out sick this week.

So how many people are there in your building and how many have died. We need to keep the statistical http://urban-science.blogspot.com/2009/10/h1n1-vaccination-hysteria-part-2-should.html" going.

 

[lisab]

So how many people are there in your building and how many have died. We need to keep the statistical http://urban-science.blogspot.com/2009/10/h1n1-vaccination-hysteria-part-2-should.html" going.

Well, a coworker died about a year ago. OK so it wasn't from flu, but that's totally irrelevant.

There are about 35 people in the building (after 2 rounds of layoffs ).

 

[Evo]

About 50% of the employees in my building have had it (including me), and there were about 5 more out sick this week.

Full disclosure: no one went to the doctor to confirm it's H1N1. However, the CDC states on http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm" :

Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

So I think it's safe to assume that a flu-like illness spreading around an office at this time (with all the classic H1N1 symtoms) is likely H1N1.

Unless it's diagnosed though, we can't even say it was the flu.

This year seems to be odd that no one has had a cold, it's all the flu.

 

[lisab]

Unless it's diagnosed though, we can't even say it was the flu.

This year seems to be odd that no one has had a cold, it's all the flu.

But typically with a cold, there's lots of congestion. This (that everyone in my building is getting) is mostly characterized with fever, chills, aches, and incredible fatigue. Sore throat, too, and just a sniffle, maybe, but no congestion at all. No sneezing, either.

But true, it's not confirmed...yet I strongly suspect it's H1N1.

 

[OmCheeto]

But typically with a cold, there's lots of congestion. This (that everyone in my building is getting) is mostly characterized with fever, chills, aches, and incredible fatigue. Sore throat, too, and just a sniffle, maybe, but no congestion at all. No sneezing, either.

But true, it's not confirmed...yet I strongly suspect it's H1N1.

So you still might be contagious? And here I'm going to be in your neighborhhttp://www.fosswaterwayseaport.org/index.php?p=HotNews10.09.09"od tomorrow and was going to stop by and give you a big hug.

If you see someone in a little black truck honking and waving while driving away in the morning, it was me.

 

[GeorginaS]

You know, if I caught swine flu, I'm young and healthy, and while it might be a really lousy experience, the odds of my body being able to fight it off on its own are really good. So, I figure I'm in good shape that way.

Now, a friend of mine, who happens to also be someone I work with, is going through chemotherapy treatments right now. He immune system is badly suppressed. He got the vaccination, but who knows what kind of anti-body response his body is going to be able to muster right now? What if I bring the live virus to him, because I figure I don't have to worry about me. I'll survive. He's already fighting for his life as a result of a very serious colon tumour he acquired and had to have removed. He has a wife, who is also my friend, and children, both young and old.

And he's just one person in my life. His wife, who is my friend, has a brother who is HIV positive. He's living a very normal life on his meds. We socialise at family gatherings on special occasions. His immune system isn't anything to write home about either.

And then I looked at a picture I had taken this past September when my parents were visiting. I took them out to dinner for their 49th anniversary and invited my friends and a couple who are friends of my parents. In that picture is my father, whose immune system is trying to pull itself back together from treatments for prostate cancer last year. There's my mother's friend, A, standing behind them, and she was just diagnosed with her fourth case of cancer and would have surgery and start treatments within two weeks of that picture. My friend who'd had the recent cancer operation was also in that picture. We all look like a perfectly normal group of people. Yet in that shot of seven people were three people in various stages of fighting cancer and whose immune systems are not up to the fight of a flu. It made me wonder how many people I interact with every day, or even simply share space with, in the grocery store, or out shopping. How many people are so much more vulnerable than I am, who appear perfectly fine.

Lastly, I have an adorable neighbour. Her name is Winnie. She's in her early eighties and had a mastectomy for breast cancer ten years ago. She's in a number of high-risk groups. Winnie is the most adorable woman. I want to adopt her as my grandmother. We stop in the hallway and chat fairly regularly. If Winnie's door is open when my cat wanders into the hallway for her promenade, she wanders directly into Winnie's place and makes herself at home. That provokes the best laugh from Winnie who's amazed at how quiet Bean is. She's a delight. Her chances of surviving a flu aren't great.

I have all of these people around me, ones I know about and ones I'd have no idea, and if I'm walking around carrying a specific flu that's traveling fairly quickly and I could have warded it off with a shot, but I only concern myself with me, then what good am I? Seriously? Sure, it's not "that bad" of a flu as compared to some of the others. Granted. And surely I'd have no problem overcoming it. It's targeted. We know specifically that this one flu is making its rounds -- unlike the other seasonal flus. I'd be a pretty lousy member of society if I didn't care about people like my friend, my friend's brother, my father, my mother's friend, and Winnie.

Yes. I got my H1N1 shot.

 

[GeorginaS]

The wait time here is long because they're administering the seasonal flu shots and H1N1 shots in public clinics. Yes, you can call your doctor and make an appointment to go in and get your shots, but most doctors' offices are setting up their own clinics too. The question is manpower.

The biggest clinic near my place (close to both where I live and work) first had a seasonal flu clinic in a mall last week. They opened at 7 in the morning and finished off at 8 at night. Wait time, from going in, filling out the form, just plain waiting, getting the shot, and then waiting an extra 15 minutes afterwards, all told, took about an hour. They had a lot of nurses on hand.

H1N1 came in this week, and wait times skyrocketed. I don't imagine doctors' offices were any better off. People were waiting between 2 and 5 hours to get their shot.

Yes, they're just walk-in clinics. You don't call for an appointment. You just go. And however many people are there ahead of you, you wait behind them. Our building that I work in has generally had clinics in-house for flu shots yearly, but this year there's been such a push by the government to get people inoculated, that health providers short of staff and we don't have the luxury of private clinics in every office building. We aren't short of the vaccine, and we aren't short of space to do it. We're short of people to administer the shots. One clinic I was at had pulled five nurses from a less busy clinic elsewhere in town to handle the load they had. That's just how it is. And people are very willing to patiently wait their turn.

 

[Count Iblis]

http://search.hp.my.aol.fi/aol/redir?src=image&clickedItemURN=http%3A%2F%2Finfo-wars.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F08%2FSwine_Flu_Hysteria_by_Latuff2.jpg&moduleId=image_details.jsp.M&clickedItemDescription=Image Details

 

[jreelawg]

Evolutionally who will survive longest, vaccine takers or non vaccine takers?

For example, if group a gets vaccinated, and most survive, then they pass on their genes untested. Our natural mechanism for long term survival (evolution) will bypass any kind of flu resistant selection. Meanwhile in group b, nobody takes vaccines, and everyone with poor flu resistance die, then their population becomes more flu strong.

But, if 500 years of mass vaccinations pass by, and everyone relies on vaccines to fight flues, and vaccine makers make a bad guess on the vaccine, and the world gets exposed, we have ourselves a plague?

Or I guess you could say that maybe populations who take vaccines will evolve to withstand low dose toxic injections.

Then there is the question of how the immune system naturally adapts to fight viruses. Is there a better resistance built up getting a flu than getting vaccinated. Other wise, people who dodge the flu year by year are more likely to eventually get it and die in the long run, and evolution would go the other way. Then another option would be that a flu wipes everyone out but the vaccine takers.

For the greater good, and for your risk of dying, I just am not sure how that would pan out in the long term, I think by any calculation it's going to be a gamble, and there is a strong component of chance.

Anyways the flu isn't really what kills you, most of the time it's pneumonia. So I guess it's more complicated.

I guess you could say that at some point there may be a nano vaccine so to speak, and we might even have the opportunity to become immortal. I somehow doubt I'll be able to afford it though.

As for the hype, I haven't seen any statistics back it up.

Anyone get a pneumonia vaccine?

 

[NeoDevin]

Evolutionally who will survive longest, vaccine takers or non vaccine takers?

For example, if group a gets vaccinated, and most survive, then they pass on their genes

It works better if you just ignore the rest of what you wrote.

 

[jreelawg]

It works better if you just ignore the rest of what you wrote.

I'm thinking long term, on the evolutionary scale.

You could argue that technology will make adaptation irrelevant.

I still would need to know wether getting the vaccine makes you more likely to pass on genes. There is a possibility that getting vaccines all your life will make you less likely to for all I know.

 

[Count Iblis]

But humans won't exist in biological form for very long:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/broadband/tx/singularity/


So, what matters for our long term survival is the ability to defend against computer virusses.