Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP

[Jim Lagerfeld]

Thanks for your considered response Gary, for us in Japan this debate is much more personal.

Regarding the Shizuoka Tea, I'm wondering if you have access to the full story, as I tend to look at that particular example as another reason not to believe that the random testing and voluntary suspensions are as effective as they could be.

If you read these translated articles in reverse order you'll get a reasonably full picture http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/search/label/Shizuoka, but in short radiation was first detected in fresh tea but the growers and the governor conspired to exclude the final product from further testing to 'avoid confusion'. An organic home delivery company in Tokyo commissioned independent tests and proved that the final shipped product from some regions was indeed contaminated. The Governor relented and ordered further testing, however the delay had meant that most of the first harvest had already shipped, hence the contaminated tea getting seized at the French airport.

Regarding 'blanket statements', the only one I've been hearing - and I've lost count - is the 'contamination levels will not effect human health' 「健康に影響はない.」line. This is at best mistaken and at worst misleading, as the LNT (Linear Non-Threshold) hypothesis reminds us that there is no 'threshold'. In fact 65 teachers at Tokyo University petitioned their own school to stop making those 'no health impact' claims, as they viewed it as scientifically dishonest given that they have a campus at Kashiwa, another area on the Tokyo border with contamination in the order of 100 kBq/m2.

http://sites.google.com/site/utokyoradiation/home/request

Personally, I'd much rather see the 'no risk to health' myth put to bed so everyone can focus on better minimizing the risk. On a side note, I think the 11% increase in relative risk per 100 kBq/m2 compares to roughly 2300% for smokers vs non-smokers, so I'm staying in Tokyo but cutting down on smokes!

 

[zapperzero]

Personally, I'd much rather see the 'no risk to health' myth put to bed so everyone can focus on better minimizing the risk. On a side note, I think the 11% increase in relative risk per 100 kBq/m2 compares to roughly 2300% for smokers vs non-smokers, so I'm staying in Tokyo but cutting down on smokes!

Good for you! Smoking in contaminated areas is a bad idea anyway - smokers tend to inhale through their mouths, bypassing all that nice filtration equipment Pachacamac gave us.

 

[clancy688]

I can't vouch for the source, but this article claims that Prussian Blue, the most effective chelation agent (not exactly "antidote") for Cs-137 ingestion is nearly unavailable in Japan, and imports and domestic production are slowed by red tape and indifference. I'll try to verify this information, but it makes me want to tear my hair out.

Sounds like Japan. I still remember what happened after the Kobe earthquake. They detained swiss rescue dogs because of quarantine issues. After a few days they were freed - and got assigned to places with all rubble already cleared. What the hell is a rescue dog supposed to do there?
Same story for JAL flight 123. American forces arrived at the crash site right after impact. But japanese government ordered them away because the JSDF would do the job. Which arrived not until the next day. And found a mere four survivors out of over five hundred.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it repeats its lessons...

 

[Jim Lagerfeld]

Ex-skf translates this article - 2,700bq/kg found in green tea grown in Itabashi ward, Tokyo.

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/06/2700-becquerelskg-cesium-from-teas.html

 

[nikkkom]

Ex-skf translates this article - 2,700bq/kg found in green tea grown in Itabashi ward, Tokyo.

Same thing happened after Chernobyl: Georgian tea (Caucasus, not US Georgia) was found to accumulate significant levels. Drying process of tea makes leaves work as an air filter.

Another thing to check for in Tokyo area is residential ventilation air filters and such...

 

[tsutsuji]

http://jp.wsj.com/Japan/node_258611 The Wall Street Journal has a fresh new interview (his first one since he resigned from his government job) of Toshiso Kosako, described as Japan's number one radiation safety expert. He says the government is underestimating the contamination of the sea and fish in order to lower the decontamination cost. The rice harvest, next autumn, is also a matter of concern. If the radiation in the rice from the Tohoku region becomes a scandal, consumers may refuse to buy it.

The English version of the article is here : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450604576419560689685524.html

 

[Azby]

A fairly detailed and objective description of the degree of contamination of Japanese green tea, and various repercussions thereof, from a tea supplier's newsletter:

http://www.teamuse.com/article_110701.html

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.afpbb.com/article/disast...pbb&utm_medium=topics&utm_campaign=txt_topics Hot spots found in Fukushima City in a study made by the Kobe university school of marine study at the request of citizen groups. They are above the government level of 10,000 Bq/kg with radiations of 46,540 Bq/kg in Earth samples in one area and between 16,290 and 19,220 Bq/kg in three other areas.

http://www.jiji.com/jc/eqa?g=eqa&k=2011070500588 air radiations were measured between 3.2 and 3.83 microsievert/hour. The citizen groups stress that these areas would fall into the compulsory relocation area category if they were located in Chernobyl. At a school where the City government found 0.15 microsievert/hour, the study found 1.86 microsievert/hour and 13,812 Bq/kg.

 

[Caniche]

Run away

 

[Azby]

Nishio Masamichi, a radiation expert at the Hokkaido Cancer Center, recently wrote a long article for the Toyo Keizai magazine. It's summarized in English here:

http://japanfocus.org/events/view/100

Original Japanese here:

http://www.toyokeizai.net/business/society/detail/AC/548a752507bc6c3aa0fd3db058e8098a/page/1/

Most of it is very informed criticism, particularly of government actions since the disaster began. I agree with quite a lot, if not most, of what he says. It's also interesting to note that he does not accept Busby and Yablokov's risk predictions:

"The European Committee on Radiation Risk argues that existing risk models do not take internal exposure into account. High rates of internal exposure will mean a dramatic increase in cancer risk for Fukushima residents, with as many as 400,000 cases predicted by 2061. Nishio argues, however, that these calculations rest on some shaky assumptions and that the number is too high."

Busby and Yablokov are key members of the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR).

I'd like to see this article translated in full. I think it would add a lot to the debate.

 

[nikkkom]

http://www.afpbb.com/article/disast...pbb&utm_medium=topics&utm_campaign=txt_topics Hot spots found in Fukushima City in a study made by the Kobe university school of marine study at the request of citizen groups. They are above the government level of 10,000 Bq/kg with radiations of 46,540 Bq/kg in Earth samples in one area and between 16,290 and 19,220 Bq/kg in three other areas.

http://www.jiji.com/jc/eqa?g=eqa&k=2011070500588 air radiations were measured between 3.2 and 3.83 microsievert/hour. The citizen groups stress that these areas would fall into the compulsory relocation area category if they were located in Chernobyl. At a school where the City government found 0.15 microsievert/hour, the study found 1.86 microsievert/hour and 13,812 Bq/kg.

Does government perform any decontamination anywhere? Fukushima prefecture? Tokyo?

A regular, relatively simple water spray on the roads would do a lot towards reducing dust inhalation, and will wash out more soluble contaminants (which in practice means caesium).

Does government instruct people how they can reduce airborne dust in their homes? (I would guess regular vacuuming followed by wet cleaning).

Any plans to treat affected land? You know, Belorussians have a lot of experience with that. IIRC they used deep ploughing in order to move Cs underground (best if you can carefully overturn soil layer so that former top layer goes completely underground). This reduces gamma exposure. After that, they applied a generous amount of potassium fertilizer in order to reduce caesium uptake by plants. They claim about tenfold decrease of Cs in plants.

Forests proved to be impossible to decontaminate efficiently. All Cs which happened to fall on them will stay in forest plants. I guess for now the plan is not to stroll in the forests needlessly, and not collect any wild berries there...

 

[zapperzero]

A regular, relatively simple water spray on the roads would do a lot towards reducing dust inhalation, and will wash out more soluble contaminants (which in practice means caesium).

...to the sides of the road, where it will accumulate in the gutters, making it extremely dangerous to stop there for a cigarette or whatever. Tourists in the Chernobyl area are explicitly instructed not to stop anywhere, not to walk on the roadside and not to go near puddles under any circumstances.

It's not so much the widespread contamination that's deadly, if you don't eat the produce. It's the newly-formed hotspot that gives you 100 mSv while you take a picture of the sunset.

 

[zapperzero]

Also, this:
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20110705-00000095-mailo-l08

14 kBq/kg Cesium in the muck scraped off pool walls by Ibaraki schoolchildren in May. What kind of crazy has kids do any sort of cleanup in a radioactive environment? Damnit.

 

[nikkkom]

...to the sides of the road, where it will accumulate in the gutters,

Yes. Which is better than if the dust particles will be continually kicked up from road surface into the air by passing cars.

making it extremely dangerous to stop there for a cigarette or whatever.

Wrong. Stopping there for a short time (tens of minutes) won't be a big deal, unless you decide to lick the ground. For people in contaminated areas the biggest problem is long-term absorbtion of particles by inhaling, and external gamma radiation. That's why gamma-active Cs-137 needs to be removed from the most used places first (e.g. roads, squares, school yards), even if this will make it accumulate in less used places (sewers, roadside ditches).

 

[zapperzero]

Wrong. Stopping there for a short time (tens of minutes) won't be a big deal, unless you decide to lick the ground.

Or kick up the dust. Or carry it with you into your home, where it will kill you softly for years to come. This is not a sci-fi post-apocalyptic movie. It's real life. The good guys do NOT get to saunter through the ruins, scavenging free food and drinks from the abandoned supermarkets.

EDIT: not unless they happen to stumble upon a cache of dosimeters and batteries VERY early on.

LATER EDIT: Are you seriously proposing this? That normal life in a Chernobyl-level contamination area would be possible if people would only observe a few simple rules? How many times can you avoid slipping into that small ditch?

 

[nikkkom]

Or kick up the dust. Or carry it with you into your home, where it will kill you softly for years to come. This is not a sci-fi post-apocalyptic movie. It's real life. The good guys do NOT get to saunter through the ruins, scavenging free food and drinks from the abandoned supermarkets.

EDIT: not unless they happen to stumble upon a cache of dosimeters and batteries VERY early on.

LATER EDIT: Are you seriously proposing this? That normal life in a Chernobyl-level contamination area would be possible if people would only observe a few simple rules? How many times can you avoid slipping into that small ditch?

What a frack!? WHERE did I propose anything like that?

I merely asked whether Japanese government decontaminates affected territory!

I cite myself: "Does government perform any decontamination anywhere? Fukushima prefecture? Tokyo?"

Can you read?

EDIT: to remove any doubt: I do not propose that Japanese should try to decontaminate some really heavily affected territory in order to push people to live there. I think that people which already live on some relatively lightly contaminated territory nevertheless may benefit from some decontamination; therefore I ask Japanese visitors of this forum about news on that front.

 

[zapperzero]

I do not propose that Japanese should try to decontaminate some really heavily affected territory in order to push people to live there. I think that people which already live on some relatively lightly contaminated territory nevertheless may benefit from some decontamination; therefore I ask Japanese visitors of this forum about news on that front.

It really depends on what you decide to call "lightly contaminated". I, for one, wouldn't call Fukushima City or Namie "lightly contaminated". There is the problem of creating more hotspots. Let's say you wash down a real big roof that hasn't been rained on yet. You may have traded diffuse exposure, high up, for very concentrated exposure, on the ground where everyone is walking. These are not things one should do in a hurry, without expert supervision or proper training.

Even if decon were somewhat successful, there would still be a huge psychological problem to deal with:
http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201106240204.html

People who evacuated are angry now and distrust authority. How can they return, if they don't believe when the authorities tell them it is safe to do so? I'm thinking especially of those whose homes were not in the path of the plumes (so light contamination would be expected), but are in the exclusion area nevertheless.

The authorities themselves are confused. They confuse and anger others further with contradictory information and weasel words:
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110614p2a00m0na007000c.html

 

[nikkkom]

It really depends on what you decide to call "lightly contaminated". I, for one, wouldn't call Fukushima City or Namie "lightly contaminated". There is the problem of creating more hotspots. Let's say you wash down a real big roof that hasn't been rained on yet. You may have traded diffuse exposure, high up, for very concentrated exposure, on the ground where everyone is walking.

First, I did not propose washing roofs, I proposed washing roads.

Second, Japan has rain seasons. IIUC, right now it is in one. So roofs will (or already did) shed radioactivity to the ground. So hot spots may be already formed. I saw a video on youtube where a guy in Tokyo demonstrated with dosimeter that storm drain is much more radioactive than other nearby places. Without decontamination squads, these spots will be unmarked and uncleaned.

These are not things one should do in a hurry, without expert supervision or proper training.

IIRC Japan has armed forces. They should be trained in these activities. Why not use them?

Even if decon were somewhat successful, there would still be a huge psychological problem to deal with:
http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201106240204.html

People who evacuated are angry now and distrust authority. How can they return, if they don't believe when the authorities tell them it is safe to do so? I'm thinking especially of those whose homes were not in the path of the plumes (so light contamination would be expected), but are in the exclusion area nevertheless.

The authorities themselves are confused. They confuse and anger others further with contradictory information and weasel words:
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110614p2a00m0na007000c.html

Do you think that by not doing any visible work in mapping radiation and cleaning it up, and by not creating TV programs about health safety rules for inhabitants of contaminated areas government can instill more confidence in these people?

 

[zapperzero]

Do you think that by not doing any visible work in mapping radiation and cleaning it up, and by not creating TV programs about health safety rules for inhabitants of contaminated areas government can instill more confidence in these people?

I think there should NOT be people living in contaminated areas. Period.

 

[Danuta]

Do you think that by not doing any visible work in mapping radiation and cleaning it up, and by not creating TV programs about health safety rules for inhabitants of contaminated areas government can instill more confidence in these people?

They do have people giving info about health safety in lieu of radioactive particles. Haven't you heard(well, read) of Dr.Shunichi Yamagarbagea a.k.a. Dr. "100 mSv/h radiation is safe". He's just been promoted to vice president of the Fukushima Medical University in charge of setting up an organization to conduct research on effects of radiation on the Fukushima residents.

Memorable excerpts from his first lecture/dialogue:

The name "Fukushima" will be widely known throughout the world. Fukushima, Fukushima, Fukushima, everything is Fukushima. This is great! Fukushima has beaten Hiroshima and Nagasaki. From now on, Fukushima will become the world number 1 name [when it comes to radiation/nuclear incident]. A crisis is an opportunity. This is the biggest opportunity. Hey, Fukushima, you've become famous without any efforts! [a chuckle from the audience] Why not take advantage of this opportunity? For what? Recovery.

...

To tell you the truth, radiation doesn't affect people who are smiling, but those who are worried. This has clearly been demonstrated by animal studies. So, drinking may be bad for your health, but happy drinkers are less affected by radiation, luckily. I'm not advising you to drink, but laughter will remove your radiation-phobia. But there's precious little information to scientifically explain the effects of laughter. So, please ask all your questions. This is not a lecture, it's a dialog between you and I.

 

[Luca Bevil]

every comment is superflous, unfortunately

 

[Danuta]

every comment is superflous, unfortunately

I would have used quite another adjective but superfluous it definitely is.

"...radiation doesn't affect people who are smiling, but those who are worried. This has clearly been demonstrated by animal studies."

Anyone know what kind of animals he is talking about in those studies? Also, can someone point me to the studies.

 

[zapperzero]

I would have used quite another adjective but superfluous it definitely is.

"...radiation doesn't affect people who are smiling, but those who are worried. This has clearly been demonstrated by animal studies."

Anyone know what kind of animals he is talking about in those studies? Also, can someone point me to the studies.

It's the common Japanese lab rat, also known as "citizen". You should really look up the literature, there's good stuff about the effects of pollution and induced stress in there. Why, if it weren't for Minamata, how would we have found out about the effects of mercury poisoning?

If not for Fukushima, how would we ever know what excess radioactivity in the environment does to lab rat pups? Eight thousand have been fitted with dosimeters and released back into the wild. Imagine the opportunities! Trans-generational studies! A large and diverse enough population to control for just about every factor you could imagine!

http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2011/06/09/fukushima-school-rule-dosimeters-for-kids/

 

[Danuta]

It's the common Japanese lab rat, also known as "citizen".

You seem to have nailed it.

It was certainly perplexing trying to think of what animal was used for the studies that was actually seen to smile or worry, and how this could be "clearly demonstrated". I didn't realize the good Doctor meant the Japanese people.

Still, there must be important studies done and published already, for the vice president of the Fukushima Medical University in charge of setting up an organization to conduct research on effects of radiation on the Fukushima residents to publicly state these(below) as fact. (Perhaps data and study for statement no.2 comes from the former USSR.)

1. Radiation doesn't affect people who are smiling, but those who are worried.

2. Drinking may be bad for your health, but happy drinkers are less affected by radiation.

3. Laughter will remove your radiation-phobia.

Oh and, the statement he is most famous(well, now infamous) for,

4. 100mSv/y is absolutely safe for pregnant women.

5. Adults over 20 years old have very little sensitivity to radiation. Almost zero.

Edit: forgot this gem...

6. Internal exposure has 10 times less health risk than external exposure.

 

[nikkkom]

I think there should NOT be people living in contaminated areas. Period.

Contamination is not binary, it gradually tapers out to zero. However you choose a level of contamination above which area should be evacuated, there will be adjacent areas with contamination slightly below this level, where people will remain and which can benefit from decontamination.

 

[zapperzero]

Contamination is not binary, it gradually tapers out to zero. However you choose a level of contamination above which area should be evacuated, there will be adjacent areas with contamination slightly below this level, where people will remain and which can benefit from decontamination.

If there's a health benefit from decon, then that is a contaminated area and people should not live there unless/until it is cleaned up. I do not see why this is a concept that you need to wrestle with.

 

[tsutsuji]

Thank you for the link. I think the 0.5 μSv/h　spot centered in the North of Chiba prefecture, extending west on both sides of the Edogawa river could have a link with the 22 March water crisis when significant levels of contamination were found in the Kanamachi water purification plant, which takes water from the Edogawa.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110712p2g00m0dm006000c.html "At one waste disposal center in Kashiwa, up to 70,800 becquerels of radioactive cesium per kilogram were detected from ashes collected on June 24"

Kashiwa, Chiba prefecture, is 15 km North East from Kanamachi water purification plant.

 

[mikefj40]

Here we are, 5 months post event and they are just starting to survey the Puget Sound for contamination. Would the data have been too scary if they tried this back in March?

http://www.doh.wa.gov/Publicat/2011_news/11-105.htm

 

[SteveElbows]

Evidence continues to emerge that they really haven't handled food contamination properly:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/13_31.html

They found that beef from the cattle had been sold by wholesalers to meat shops and restaurants in 11 prefectures.

Some 440 kilograms of beef were sold to customers in 21 shops and restaurants in 8 prefectures. The beef may have already been consumed.

Tests on beef that was left unsold at the stores show that it contained radioactive cesium 4 to 7 times the government safety level of 500 becquerels per kilogram.

Tokyo government officials say that the unsold beef has been withdrawn from shops to prevent it from being consumed.

Officials plan to continue testing the unsold beef and to investigate where the meat might have ended up.

 

[Danuta]

Contaminated beef from Fukushima was served to schoolchildren at lunches in Yokohama from April 23 to June 7. Why? Because no one was buying Fukushima beef and the price of it had dropped 40 to 50%. The major and Board of Education approved of it. It was an excellent opportunity to save some money.

 

[NUCENG]

Here we are, 5 months post event and they are just starting to survey the Puget Sound for contamination. Would the data have been too scary if they tried this back in March?

http://www.doh.wa.gov/Publicat/2011_news/11-105.htm

Please read the article. They are monitoring normal background to compare to readings if a nuclear accident were to occur. They are not looking for contamination from Fukushima.

Quote: "Mapping the normal amounts and location of radioactive material will provide a baseline for comparison to assess contamination if there were a nuclear incident like the events in Fukushima. Sampling in that area of Japan after the nuclear reactors were damaged produced radiation readings, but there was no baseline for comparison so it was unclear how much higher the levels had grown."

I wonder how they would determine if there is some radiation from Fukushima, perhaps the mixture of isotopes? If they don't screen for radiation from Fukushima their background might be artificaially high and thus minimize the comparison from another accident.

 

[mikefj40]

Please read the article. They are monitoring normal background to compare to readings if a nuclear accident were to occur. They are not looking for contamination from Fukushima.

I did read the article and it appears that this operation has been in the planning and preparation stage for several years. I'm just surprised that they didn't modify the mission based on the events in Japan.

 

[NUCENG]

I did read the article and it appears that this operation has been in the planning and preparation stage for several years. I'm just surprised that they didn't modify the mission based on the events in Japan.

My apologies if I misunderstood your intent.I am too, a little surprised. To be useful they need to be able to screen for bias from Fukushima.

 

[mikefj40]

UC Berkeley reports their first non-detection of isotopes in SF Bay Area milk since early April.

http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/2174

 

[tsutsuji]

http://news.tbs.co.jp/newseye/tbs_newseye4777287.html Radiations above limits detected in fat greenlings (Hexagrammos otakii) and olive flounders in Fukushima prefecture. Both fish live on the bottom of the sea.