Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP

[Gary7]

Hi Tsutsuji, that last link is broken. Either that or the story was pulled.
Gary

 

[ThomS]

Hi Gary,

The link is not broken. That is a link to a Television news channel website and accompanying story. Unfortunately, it is common practice here in Japan that these links last about one news cycle (24 hours) before they are removed and new content is put online in its place. In this case, the content was simply removed.

 

[Caniche]

Here we are, 5 months post event and they are just starting to survey the Puget Sound for contamination. Would the data have been too scary if they tried this back in March?

http://www.doh.wa.gov/Publicat/2011_news/11-105.htm

Don't know ,but Rimnet disappeared off the radar in mid March as well. I'm sure it was just a statistically predictable random coincidence

 

[Jim Lagerfeld]

50,000+ Bq/Kg radiocesium in a soil sample collected from Kashiwa City in Chiba, on the eastern border of the Tokyo metropolis

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2011/07/13/52547-bqkg-cesium-radiation-soil-tokyo-135-miles-south-fukushima-34691/

 

[tsutsuji]

Hi Tsutsuji, that last link is broken. Either that or the story was pulled.
Gary

Alternative link : http://news.tbs.co.jp/20110715/newseye/tbs_newseye4777287.html
The corresponding youtube video is still online :

http://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20110718_25923.html this is an article from the 28 July 2011 issue of magazine "Josei Seven" (Women Seven) about seafood. 28 of 100 seafood products surveyed by the magazine in the first decade of July contained significant levels of radiations, although they are below the government safety standard. The magazine interviewed Professor Ikuro Anzai of Ritsumeikan university : Research undertaken after the Chernobyl accident showed that more than 50~60% of radiations are located in flounders' bones and insides, so it is advised not to eat those parts. Fish should be rinsed with water. Cesium accumulates in the gills. Let's remove the head with the gills, and the scales. When preparing fish, Belarussian people always remove skin and head. When cooking fish, boiling is better than grilling. According to some research, 70~80% of cesium is removed by boiling. Of course, this requires to dispose of the boiling water.

 

[tsutsuji]

50,000+ Bq/Kg radiocesium in a soil sample collected from Kashiwa City in Chiba, on the eastern border of the Tokyo metropolis

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2011/07/13/52547-bqkg-cesium-radiation-soil-tokyo-135-miles-south-fukushima-34691/

Yes there is a hot spot in Northern Chiba prefecture, centered not far away from Kashiwa. You can see it on Pr. Yukio Hayakawa 's radiation contour map.

High resolution map : http://gunma.zamurai.jp/pub/2011/18juneJG.jpg ; Source : http://kipuka.blog70.fc2.com/blog-entry-397.html

 

[Azby]

I've been hunting high and low for a post-Chernobyl contamination map of Kiev (the city itself, not the whole region) and haven't been able to find one. I think it may hold lessons for Fukushima City and Tokyo. Does anyone have one or know where one is? Extra points for one that shows changing contamination levels over time!

 

[tsutsuji]

I've been hunting high and low for a post-Chernobyl contamination map of Kiev (the city itself, not the whole region) and haven't been able to find one. I think it may hold lessons for Fukushima City and Tokyo. Does anyone have one or know where one is? Extra points for one that shows changing contamination levels over time!

Here is one :
[PLAIN]http://mail.menr.gov.ua/publ/kiev2003/atlas03_u/tnkart50.jpg
"Cesium- 137 pollution of urban area's soils (for 1.01.2001.) Atlas "

Large size : http://mail.menr.gov.ua/publ/kiev2003/atlas03_u/kart50.jpg ; source : http://mail.menr.gov.ua/publ/kiev2003/zemlyproe.htm (English); http://mail.menr.gov.ua/publ/kiev2003/atlas03_u/atlaskiev.htm ecological Kiev atlas (in Ukrainian).

http://www.mext.go.jp/component/a_menu/other/detail/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2011/07/20/1305519_0720.pdf Update of the Distribution map of radiation dose around Fukushima Dai-ichi＆Dai-Ni NPP with the integrated dose as of 11 July 2011. page 1 = Dose Monitoring Map (Estimates)(As of July 11, 2011) ; page 2 = Integrated Dose Map (Estimation )(Integrated Dose up to March 11, 2012) ; page 3 = Integrated Dose Map (Estimation)(Integrated Dose up to July 11, 2011)

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/news/20110720-OYT1T00962.htm 34 kg of beef from cows fed with cesium rice straw have been sold in bento meals in Tokaido Shinkansen and railway stations between June 17 and July 1. The radiological status of the beef is not known.

http://mainichi.jp/life/today/news/20110721k0000m040143000c.html According to the latest inventory, 1264 cows (614 more than in the previous inventory) from 9 prefectures (5 more than in the previous inventory) were fed with cesium rice straw and distributed in 45 prefectures.

 

[Azby]

Here is one :
[PLAIN]http://mail.menr.gov.ua/publ/kiev2003/atlas03_u/tnkart50.jpg
"Cesium- 137 pollution of urban area's soils (for 1.01.2001.) Atlas "

Large size : http://mail.menr.gov.ua/publ/kiev2003/atlas03_u/kart50.jpg ; source : http://mail.menr.gov.ua/publ/kiev2003/zemlyproe.htm (English); http://mail.menr.gov.ua/publ/kiev2003/atlas03_u/atlaskiev.htm ecological Kiev atlas (in Ukrainian).

Thanks Tsutuji! You're a font of timely information.

I'm not sure how to read the scale though since it's in Russian abbreviations. It might be kBq/m2, but in that case the levels seem too high. Maybe someone else can enlighten me...

Azby

 

[tsutsuji]

I'm not sure how to read the scale

Кі / км Кв (кюрі / Квадра́тний кіломе́тр) = Ci / km² (curie / square kilometre) ( http://translate.google.com/#uk|en|Кі / км кв )

 

[NUCENG]

RPI presentation to ANS on Fukushima Daiichi Accident dose consequences.

http://www.ans.org/misc/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.pdf

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/kagawa_news/social/20110723000167 Interview of Pr. Kunikazu Noguchi of Nihon University, giving low-cesium cooking tips.

http://www.asahi.com/national/jiji/JJT201107230008.html According to　Pr. Masanobu Hayashi of Rakuno Gakuen University Department of veterinary radiological biology, cows are usually fed with grass or maize, but in order to produce marbled meat, rice straw is often added to the feed before shipment. The straw is dried outdoors after cutting. Cesium being soluble in water is included in the rain, and there is a high probablility that the straw was impregnated with cesium this way.　Pr. Mamoru Fujiwara of Osaka University Nuclear Research Centre says that the cows' cesium is eliminated in cow dung and urine. It declines to one half in 2 or 3 months, and to one eighth in half a year. He says farmers should refrain from selling immediately and wait for half a year.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20110723/t10014409461000.html The first results of the internal contamination survey have been announced. All 122 examined people have less than 1 milisievert. The first explanatory session where 23 people were handed over their personal results took place in Namie town today.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.asahi.com/national/update/0723/TKY201107230678.html The count of cows from 9 prefectures that were fed with contaminated straw and delivered to the meat distribution market is now 2570.

http://mytown.asahi.com/tochigi/news.php?k_id=09000001107240003 (Tochigi local page) A dairy farmer bought 38 straw rolls as compost straw through an acquaintance, from which he sold 16 rolls to a livestock farmer. Dairy farmer : "I sold the rolls saying they were exposed to radiations. I didn't know he was feeding cows with them". Livestock farmer : "I wasn't told. If I had been told, I would not have bought them". Acquaintance : "I thought I had told they couldn't be used to feed cows. If he says so, perhaps he wasn't told. I don't remember very well".

RPI presentation to ANS on Fukushima Daiichi Accident dose consequences.

http://www.ans.org/misc/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.pdf

I found the source for the maps page 8 and 9 : http://cerea.enpc.fr/fr/fukushima.html

Cancer deaths due to accumulated radiation exposures: can’t be ruled out –conservative risk estimates ~100s cases, against an expected ~10 million cases
page 27 http://www.ans.org/misc/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.pdf

I think this is the first time I see someone risk an estimate for the Fukushima cancer risk. I have no idea whether it is accurate (or whether it requires updating in order to take into account the beef crisis), but the 800-1800 person-Sv, compared to Chernobyl's 255,000 person-Sv and TMI's 20 person-Sv, page 25 is also interesting.

 

[zapperzero]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/24_18.html
Fukushima city experiments with decon for roads, houses. No mention of where the resulting radwaste ended up.

 

[NUCENG]

http://www.asahi.com/national/update/0723/TKY201107230678.html The count of cows from 9 prefectures that were fed with contaminated straw and delivered to the meat distribution market is now 2570.

http://mytown.asahi.com/tochigi/news.php?k_id=09000001107240003 (Tochigi local page) A dairy farmer bought 38 straw rolls as compost straw through an acquaintance, from which he sold 16 rolls to a livestock farmer. Dairy farmer : "I sold the rolls saying they were exposed to radiations. I didn't know he was feeding cows with them". Livestock farmer : "I wasn't told. If I had been told, I would not have bought them". Acquaintance : "I thought I had told they couldn't be used to feed cows. If he says so, perhaps he wasn't told. I don't remember very well".



I found the source for the maps page 8 and 9 : http://cerea.enpc.fr/fr/fukushima.html



I think this is the first time I see someone risk an estimate for the Fukushima cancer risk. I have no idea whether it is accurate (or whether it requires updating in order to take into account the beef crisis), but the 800-1800 person-Sv, compared to Chernobyl's 255,000 person-Sv and TMI's 20 person-Sv, page 25 is also interesting.

I posted the link to the RPI study to spark comments on that very point. We are getting a lot of claims based on sources that have been questioned for being fear-mongering. If this study is correct it will be nearly impossible to link any deaths to the accident.

Because the Fukushima Daichi accident involves four reactors and complete failures of containment, I find that hard to square with what I have read about Chernobyl. I have started with the premise that Fukushima would remain a tragedy due to the fear and dislocation unnecessarily added onto the back of the earthquake and tsunami, even if it didn't result in any latent cases of cancer. Based on what I have read, early onset of thyroid cancers may be the first measureable result if there will be significant consequences. Has anybody got a timeframe for the time of onset in Chernobyl?

I can see that some additional deaths of elderly patients evacuated from the exclusion area may need to be considered accident-related even if they had nothing to do with radiation.

I have a harder time blaming heat stroke on the accident, because the fact is the power reductions are voluntarily exceeding the targets set to avoid rolling blackouts. We are having heat-related deaths in the US with no reactor accidents to blame.

Suicides are another tough nut to crack. If the accident was a part of the cause, was it worsened by the devastation of the earthquake and tsunami? How much of the fear and depression was a result of learning that TEPCO and the Japanese government were lying to the people?

Sounds like a discussion worth having!

 

[Luca Bevil]

I posted the link to the RPI study to spark comments on that very point. We are getting a lot of claims based on sources that have been questioned for being fear-mongering. If this study is correct it will be nearly impossible to link any deaths to the accident.

Because the Fukushima Daichi accident involves four reactors and complete failures of containment, I find that hard to square with what I have read about Chernobyl. I have started with the premise that Fukushima would remain a tragedy due to the fear and dislocation unnecessarily added onto the back of the earthquake and tsunami, even if it didn't result in any latent cases of cancer. Based on what I have read, early onset of thyroid cancers may be the first measureable result if there will be significant consequences. Has anybody got a timeframe for the time of onset in Chernobyl?

I can see that some additional deaths of elderly patients evacuated from the exclusion area may need to be considered accident-related even if they had nothing to do with radiation.

I have a harder time blaming heat stroke on the accident, because the fact is the power reductions are voluntarily exceeding the targets set to avoid rolling blackouts. We are having heat-related deaths in the US with no reactor accidents to blame.

Suicides are another tough nut to crack. If the accident was a part of the cause, was it worsened by the devastation of the earthquake and tsunami? How much of the fear and depression was a result of learning that TEPCO and the Japanese government were lying to the people?

Sounds like a discussion worth having!

I agree, I would add people that were in need of rescuing, becuase of the earthquake/tsunami consequences, inside the evacuation zone in the earthquake/tsunami aftermath and that if in fact there were any, would have been unable to get help.

I am unsure however about if any and in case how many people could have been rescued in abscence of the Daiichi incident.

 

[NUCENG]

I agree, I would add people that were in need of rescuing, becuase of the earthquake/tsunami consequences, inside the evacuation zone in the earthquake/tsunami aftermath and that if in fact there were any, would have been unable to get help.

I am unsure however about if any and in case how many people could have been rescued in abscence of the Daiichi incident.

I see that, but have no idea how this could ever be quantified. There is no way to determine whether a specific body would have been rescued in time had the accident not happened. I have seen YouTube films of reporters driving around with their dosimeters in the area that became the exclusion area, so it may also be due to some government decisions about where to send rescuers. It wouldn't be accurate to blame the thousands still missing from the earthquake and tsunami on the accident.

 

[Luca Bevil]

I see that, but have no idea how this could ever be quantified. There is no way to determine whether a specific body would have been rescued in time had the accident not happened. I have seen YouTube films of reporters driving around with their dosimeters in the area that became the exclusion area, so it may also be due to some government decisions about where to send rescuers. It wouldn't be accurate to blame the thousands still missing from the earthquake and tsunami on the accident.

Not all of them... of course not, likely probably not even a significant fraction, likely a minor one, I just think it would be fair to consider this negative effect along with the other less direct ones.

 

[Azby]

I posted the link to the RPI study to spark comments on that very point. We are getting a lot of claims based on sources that have been questioned for being fear-mongering. If this study is correct it will be nearly impossible to link any deaths to the accident.

Because the Fukushima Daichi accident involves four reactors and complete failures of containment, I find that hard to square with what I have read about Chernobyl. I have started with the premise that Fukushima would remain a tragedy due to the fear and dislocation unnecessarily added onto the back of the earthquake and tsunami, even if it didn't result in any latent cases of cancer. Based on what I have read, early onset of thyroid cancers may be the first measureable result if there will be significant consequences. Has anybody got a timeframe for the time of onset in Chernobyl?

I can see that some additional deaths of elderly patients evacuated from the exclusion area may need to be considered accident-related even if they had nothing to do with radiation.

I have a harder time blaming heat stroke on the accident, because the fact is the power reductions are voluntarily exceeding the targets set to avoid rolling blackouts. We are having heat-related deaths in the US with no reactor accidents to blame.

Suicides are another tough nut to crack. If the accident was a part of the cause, was it worsened by the devastation of the earthquake and tsunami? How much of the fear and depression was a result of learning that TEPCO and the Japanese government were lying to the people?

Sounds like a discussion worth having!

There's a certain amount of evidence that gives cause for optimism, and other evidence which suggests that significant risks will continue. And none of it suggests that we can stop being vigilant.

On the cause for optimism side:
--The recent report which Tsutsuji pointed to yesterday which showed that a sample of residents of some of the most contaminated areas (including Iitate-mura) had less than 1mSv of internal radiation. If this is representative of the worst, then I consider it good news.
--I just reread an analysis by Prof Madeline Yanch of MIT, from April 4, in which she outlines health effect projections for Iitate-mura. What she said was closely in line with what many reliable reports said at the time, that even in those areas the increased cancer risk would be in the hundredths of a percent range. In her report Yanch used a cumulative dose rate of 7.6 mSv through early April 2011, while MEXT data of 7/11/2011 projecting through July 2012 shows Iitate to be predominately in the 10-20mSv/yr range, with a small portion in the southeast in the 40-50 mSv/yr range. Still the risk appears to be on the same order of magnitude.
http://web.mit.edu/nse/pdfs/Yanch_impact.pdf
-- The RPI report suggests similar risk levels. Balance these against the clear evidence that the food monitoring system is porous, and hot spots are being discovered in agricultural areas fairly far away from Fukushima. Many local governments continue to resist calls by citizens to decontaminate towns, schools, and neighborhoods. And the government seems to be accelerating the timetable for the return of evacuees to parts of Fukushima without making it clear if, how, and when those towns will be decontaminated. All of these present continuing risk, but all have clear technical solutions and can be addressed. But they haven't been adequately addressed yet four months down the road, so we're justified in being skeptical that they actually will be.

We'll only be able to really evaluate the risk when 1) better contamination maps are released (reported here earlier to be scheduled for late Aug) and 2) when the results of whole-body radiation counts of larger samples of people from a wider geographic area are completed (I expect we'll be getting more information month by month).

As for the cascade of effects which stem from the accident but are not directly caused by it, I think we really should try to understand this as a broad and complex mechanism that puts many damaging processes in motion and accelerates others that existed already. So it's worthwhile to look at it very inclusively, down to mental health, family problems, distrust of Japanese goods overseas, etc, in which case I'd include my friend in Austria who was so stressed out with worry about his friends in Japan that blood vessels in his eyes burst.

Those sorts of psychological reactions by people far from Japan have real consequences, for instance in the fact that worried people in the US bought up all the available geiger counters which meant it's been very difficult for people in Japan who really need them to get their hands on one.

Still, it's equally important to accurately characterize the direct risk from the radiation itself, and to do as much as possible to mitigate and remediate it. When it comes to decontaminating places where people live or food is grown, I can't see any downside to going overboard and cleaning up everything that looks like it might possibly need it, even if the levels are only moderately above background. And the government and/or TEPCO should pay for it.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.kahoku.co.jp/news/2011/07/20110725t61007.htm and http://www.nhk.or.jp/fukushima/lnews/6054314981.html :

100% of the 360,000 children in Fukushima prefecture aged 18 or younger as of 1 April 2011, will undergo thyroid cancer medical examinations by March 2014, starting this October, and then every two years. Those aged 19 to 20 years old, every 5 years.

200,000 people from the evacuation area will undergo tests such as blood and urine tests, checking for radiation induced cancers and preventing lifestyle-change related diseases like strokes, on a regular basis through their lifetime.

200,000 people from the evacuation area or other people for whom it is deemed necessary as a result of the preliminary survey will be the object of a mental health descriptive survey.

20,000 pregnant women will be surveyed.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://mainichi.jp/select/science/news/20110728k0000m040154000c.html 11 prefectures have announced their intention to test 100% of the cows, but it is easier said than done. According to an official of Hokkaido livestock farming promotion department, "it takes 3~4 hours for one cow and we have only two measuring instruments".

 

[tsutsuji]

A full English translation of the above mentioned article is now available : http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110728p2a00m0na016000c.html

 

[clancy688]

Has anyone already seen the new MEXT airborne readings?

First readings (late April):

[URL]http://tec-sim.de/images/stories/mext1.jpg[/URL]


Third readings (late June):

[URL]http://tec-sim.de/images/stories/mext3.jpg[/URL]


Images are taken from tec-sim.de, initial source is http://eq.wide.ad.jp/files_en/110708plane2_en.pdf

It looks as if the radiation levels are decreasing...?

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.iwate-np.co.jp/cgi-bin/topnews.cgi?20110730_5 (Iwate Daily) Iwate prefecture created an Atomic Power Radiation Consequences Countermeasure Headquarters which held its first meeting yesterday. Cross sectoral teams will be formed in August. They plan to reinforce the radiation surveillance of schools and swimming pools. They will make plans for the control of Autumn harvests. Regarding farm animals, the control will be limited to cows, as pigs and chicken are grown indoors with mainly food from abroad. They will network with cities and village in order to manage the lack of a sufficient number of measurement tools.

 

[zapperzero]

Sellafield MOX reprocessing facility closing down as a direct consequence of Fukushima.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/aug/03/sellafield-mox-plant-close

 

[Caniche]

Sellafield MOX reprocessing facility closing down as a direct consequence of Fukushima.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/aug/03/sellafield-mox-plant-close

Thank goodness, in these times of austerity the taxpayer can ill afford to subsidise a private nuclear concern to the tune of £1.4 billion. Now we just have to ditch the other £3.1 billion subsidy to this super efficient industry. Where is the "free market" when your life depends on it

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jn5dpQ-4-LeFD6NZ_yzv2njTZ5aA?docId=CNG.de226b3f8ca77186559071adc6e480e0.4c1

Forty-five percent of children tested in the region around Japan's stricken nuclear plant were found to have traces of radioactive elements in their thyroid glands, an official said Thursday.
The official said that the iodine concentrations -- found in tests that the government carried out about five months ago in Fukushima prefecture -- were not considered alarming in terms of their health impact.
"The government's official position is that none of the children showed radiation levels that would be problematic," he told AFP.

 

[tsutsuji]

and http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110819/0820_shinosenmap.html Tepco and JAEA, using a Kyoto University measurement system have created a new radiation map on Google Earth displaying the measurements made by (a) monitoring car(s) running on the roads in the 100 km range over a total distance of 17,000 km since mid-June. The car(s) made one measurement every 10 seconds. Radiations may increase 10-fold between locations separated by only 100 m.

 

[zapperzero]

Radiations may increase 10-fold between locations separated by only 100 m.

Hotspots.

 

[Jim Lagerfeld]

North winds and rain for the first time in quite a while in Tokyo, while we were all out enjoying the a break from the heatwave, environmental radiation clearly spiked during the short rain storm - from o.o65 to 0.01 uSv in Kawasaki, 0.058 to 0.093 in Saitama city. You can see it very clearly here: http://guregoro.sakura.ne.jp/radioactivity/kanagawa/ and a screen grab here

data is taken from official prefectural monitoring stations.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.47news.jp/CN/201108/CN2011082001000306.html An experiment is made in a rice field at Iitate-Mura where growing rice is forbidden. They spread a fixation agent. After one week, they remove the crust with agricultural machinery. The chemical cost being ¥ 170 / m² , the problem is to lower the cost.

 

[zapperzero]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110820p2g00m0dm013000c.html

cumulative radiation in the town of Namie, 22 km northwest of the plant, was estimated at 115 millisieverts over the five-month period, the highest among locations outside the zone and equivalent to 229 millisieverts over a 12-month period.

Words cannot express my anger.

 

[alpi]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110820p2g00m0dm013000c.html


Words cannot express my anger.

Would it be better to forcibly evacuate more people despite what is said here http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,780810,00.html ? Don't think so.

 

[zapperzero]

Would it be better to forcibly evacuate more people despite what is said here http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,780810,00.html ? Don't think so.

Forcibly? Straw man argument.

Problem: as of today, anything beyond the 20km exclusion radius around Fukushima NPP is considered "normal". Therefore, people wishing to relocate cannot get any help from either gov't or TEPCO.

Problem: 0.2 Sieverts is way beyond the level at which you expect to start seeing definite health effects.

So yea, <text removed> I didn't think I could get any angrier.

 

[nikkkom]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110820p2g00m0dm013000c.html
"cumulative radiation in the town of Namie, 22 km northwest of the plant, was estimated at 115 millisieverts over the five-month period, the highest among locations outside the zone and equivalent to 229 millisieverts over a 12-month period."

Words cannot express my anger.

Can you elaborate?