- #2,101
Astronuc
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
2023 Award
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Bodge said:Nobody has tackled this question. Reasoned speculation would be fine!
I don't believe there is evidence of a 'large' (not quantified) steam explosion in any of the units. I would expect a big plume of steam if that were the case.
IF (and for now that's a BIG IF) there was a sufficient melting - I think it would dribble down into the water, so it would drop in, get quenched with steam blanketing the melt, which would prevent rapid heat transfer to the surrounding water.
If anyone has seen lava from Kilauea in the ocean - it's doesn't explode. It just oozes and bubbles.
If the water activity rises, it probably means more fuel is exposed. That does not necessarily require melting, but rather could be accomplished by simply oxidation and/or fracturing of the Zircaloy-2 cladding. This is a rather slow process.
Whatever is happening has been happening over two weeks - going on three weeks now. So far - It has been a slow process!