Boeing Keep your seatbelt low and tight in flight, especially when seated next to a plugged door

[Astronuc]

An overview of Boeing's situation.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/boeing-planes-problems-stock-price-shareholders.html

 

[Vanadium 50]

An overview of Boeing's situation.

I'm getting a biy grumpy by the continued claim that it was "maximizing shareholder value" that caused this. It;s easy to write, and it plays into the political beliefs of most journalists, but it is grossly oversimplified.

1. They didn't maximize shareholder value. The stock has lost billions.
2. Which is more valuable - a stock share that will return $2 once or one that will return $1 every year?
3. Cutting costs can help increase value, but nighty few companies have cut their way to the top.

The problem isn't that Management was trying to increase shareholder value. The problem is that they were trying to raise stock prices without creating value.

 

[Astronuc]

The problem is that they were trying to raise stock prices without creating value.

I would agree with that assessment - artificially inflating the value of the stock through actions like stock buybacks, outsourcing manufacturing, cutting corners, . . . . I was looking at the last 10 years of BA, from Oct 2016 to Sep 2019. On Mar 4, 2019, BA was at ~$422/share.

Lion Air Flight 610 crashed on 29 October 2018, then Ethiopian Air Flight 302 crashed on 10 March 2019, but surprisingly the stock held value (but with increased volatility), until about late Jan or early Feb 2020, when the stock price collapsed over the following months.

 

[mfb]

until about late Jan or early Feb 2020, when the stock price collapsed over the following months.

COVID, obviously. Airbus dropped massively as well. 133 in early January, 60 in early March. But Airbus has since recovered and exceeded its pre-COVID value while Boeing is still close to its March 2020 value.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I don't think buybacks themselves are evil. It essentially is a sale of stock from one group of sharegolders to another. The cash to do this came out of what would otherwise have been a dividend.

What's bad about them is that they can be used for the benefit of Management to the detriment of shareholders. If the CEO has 1000 options at $1, and the stock trades at $1, these options are worthless. If the company buys back half the stock, now the share price is $2 and the options are worth $1000. The CEO didn't actually improve the company - he just juggled the books to improve his bottom line, not the company's.

The real issue, in my mind, is that I don't want Management's attention focused on financial monkey business. I want it focused on building better airplanes and building airplanes better.

(Full disclosure- I have benefited from both sides of buybacks in the shares I own)

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Southwest Boeing 737-800 flight from Denver loses engine cover, FAA investigating​

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/07/business/southwest-boeing-737-800-engine/index.html

 

[mfb]

Make your bets: What's falling off next time?

No one bet on engine covers.

The cover was already at a weird angle at the start of the video, 18 seconds later they are still on the runway. It must have started to peel off early in the takeoff - but it looks like the pilots didn't learn that there was a problem until they couldn't reject the takeoff any more?

 

[Vanadium 50]

I like kicking Boeing when they are down as much as the next guy, but to be fair, they don't make engines.

 

[Flyboy]

They do make the cowling, or at least have a large role in it.

Tbh, this one is squarely on the shoulders of the line mechanics who last worked on the engine and closed out the cowl, and on the pilot(s) for not catching the issue during preflight walkaround.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Will it end?

A whistleblower claims that Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner is flawed. The FAA is investigating​

“I literally saw people jumping on the pieces of the airplane to get them to align,” Salehpour said. “By jumping up and down, you’re deforming parts so that the holes align temporarily … and that’s not how you build an airplane.”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/09/business/boeing-787-whistleblower/index.html

 

[Flyboy]

Will it end?

No. Not until a top to bottom restructuring of Boeing Commercial Aircraft is accomplished and quality becomes a top priority again.

 

[DaveE]

Will it end?

Yes. When the news media gets captivated by the next big story... SQUIRREL!!!... Something about Taylor Swift or a migrant invasion, IDK.

Stories about 787 manufacturing issues have been around for several years. Stories about wheels and engine cowls falling off have little do do with Boeing; that's on the operators. I'm not dissing concerns about Boeing quality issues or corporate management. I'm not sure I'm comfortable flying on their planes. I am not about to defend them. But, I am questioning the current superficial media hype.

BTW, if you look at recent worldwide accident, or near miss, data, you'll likely conclude that both pilot and ATC training/competence, and operator maintenance/procedures is a bigger issue. Even with doors coming off and such, flying is safer than driving to the airport.

I'll also add that the cheap ticket for your vacation in Bermuda, or your business trip to Atlanta, is a significant part of the safety equation. There won't be an effective quality feedback loop if nobody wants to pay for it.

 

[russ_watters]

Stories about wheels and engine cowls falling off have little do do with Boeing; that's on the operators. I'm not dissing concerns about Boeing quality issues or corporate management. I'm not sure I'm comfortable flying on their planes. I am not about to defend them. But, I am questioning the current superficial media hype.

Perspective: where the rubber meets the road is in serious accident data. Two similar crashes in a short time for new plane points to a problem with the plane. Since then? Crickets. Most of what we're seeing now is minor incidents amplified by the media. They publish shocking stories but don't actually analyze the accident/incident data to see the big picture.

Are Boeing planes having more minor incidents than airbusses? We don't really know. Major accidents since MCAS? Both are so safe it's tough to get a clear read(which is great).

But they deserve it. They need to fix it and need to prove to their customers and flying public that they've fixed it(edit: and investors like V50). Otherwise the company will slowly die. Slowly because ironically the standardization that led to MCAS makes it hard for airlines to change while also disincentivizing innovation (designing a new plane).

 

[morrobay]

From search on New Boeing whistleblower: Not only are the allegations troubling: The assembly plant just temporarily mash sections together until they appear to meet FAA gap requirements. This engineer was retaliated against by supervisors and management when he reported the problems. So if that is the case then Boeing does not want to improve safety and change. It seems it is time to call spades spades about this Boeing & Co . Again have a search on the new Boeing engineer whistleblower and his allegations and retaliation at Boeing.I see no other interpretation than reckless disregard for safety with criminal negligence. If that
so called deferred prosecution is not revoked and charges made then the problem goes way beyond Boeing. Seems it is time for a FAA whistleblower protection program.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/what-did-boeing-whistleblower-sam-salehpour-reveal.html

 

[Astronuc]

Melius Research Managing Director of Aerospace, Defense & Space Robert Spingarn shares his perspective on Boeing.
https://news.yahoo.com/finance/video/boeings-company-culture-challenges-beyond-203802966.html

Spingarn hones in on cultural issues within the company, noting the "distance" between the factory floor and executives. The divide was intensified by Boeing's decision to move its headquarters from Seattle to Chicago in the early 2000s, Spingarn says, calling the move a "disservice."

In light of Boeing's leadership shake-up, Spingarn believes "the changes are gonna be more significant than they were in the past," which may help the company see a turnaround. With the current CEO, Dave Calhoun, set to resign at the close of 2024, Spingarn is uncertain whether Calhoun will remain in the role if a successor is chosen sooner. He emphasizes the need for the next CEO to have an engineering background and production floor experience — recommending names like Pat Shanahan and Gwen Shotwell.

 

[Vanadium 50]

This is unlikely to work. The problem is that a CEO only has as much power as his VPs let him have. And the culture is that financial jiggery pokery is the way to go. The next rung down has a vested interest in the new CEO failing.

 

[mfb]

The chance that Gwynne Shotwell leaves SpaceX to join Boeing is about 0.00000%. Don't know about Pat Shanahan, but more generally: The people that Boeing would need are unlikely to go to Boeing.

 

[morrobay]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68834525

 

[morrobay]

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/boeing-whistlblower-sam-salehpour-dreamliner

 

[berkeman]

From Facebook today:

 

[morrobay]

These allegations by whistleblower before his "suicide,"are really bad news about "this Boeing management" https://www.bbc.com/news/68907597?x...h.america]-[headline]-[news]-[bizdev]-[isapi]

 

[Astronuc]

The FAA investigates after Boeing says workers in South Carolina falsified 787 inspection records
https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/faa-investigates-boeing-says-workers-233528894.html

In an email to Boeing's South Carolina employees on April 29, Scott Stocker, who leads the 787 program, said a worker observed an “irregularity” in a required test of the wing-to-body join and reported it to his manager.

“After receiving the report, we quickly reviewed the matter and learned that several people had been violating Company policies by not performing a required test, but recording the work as having been completed,” Stocker wrote.

Boeing notified the FAA and is taking “swift and serious corrective action with multiple teammates,” Stocker said.

“The company voluntarily informed us in April that it may not have completed required inspections to confirm adequate bonding and grounding where the wings join the fuselage on certain 787 Dreamliner airplanes,” the agency said in a written statement. “The FAA is investigating whether Boeing completed the inspections and whether company employees may have falsified aircraft records.”

 

[morrobay]

Good Grief. What can be done. Never mind what should be done. https://nypost.com/2024/05/04/us-news/boeing-faces-10-more-whistleblowers-after-two-die/

 

[Astronuc]

Boeing breached '21 deal that shielded it from criminal charges over 737 Max crashes, DOJ says
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...ges-over-737-max-crashes-doj-says/ar-BB1moSdm

Boeing violated a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement that protected it from criminal charges tied to the fatal 737 Max crashes, the Department of Justice said Tuesday.

Boeing could now be subject to U.S prosecution, the Justice Department said in a filing in U.S. federal court in Texas. It said it still determining “how it will proceed in this matter” and that Boeing will have 30 days to respond.

The airplane manufacturer broke the agreement by “failing to design, implement, and enforce a compliance and ethics program to prevent and detect violations of the U.S. fraud laws throughout its operations,” the Justice Department said.

Boeing confirmed that it had received the notice Tuesday from the DOJ.

 

[morrobay]

This is the 2021 deferred prosecution agreement. I don't understand why this was deferred especially for two Boeing flight technical pilots: These two technical pilots deceived the FAA AEO by concealing a flaw in the MCAS system in the 737 MAX. Consequently this information was not included in training manuals and pilot training materials. After the 2018 Lion Air crash the technical pilots continued misleading Boeing and the FAA about their knowledge of the flowed MCAS system. Then in 2019 Ethiopian Airline crashed after take off. Why are these two technical pilots not being individually prosecuted for criminal negligence?https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/boei...aud-conspiracy-and-agrees-pay-over-25-billion

 

[Astronuc]

Boeing sees six-fold rise in employee concerns on product safety, quality
https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/boeing-sees-six-fold-rise-120127882.html

Families of Marines killed in 2022 Osprey crash sue Boeing and other manufacturing companies for negligence
https://news.yahoo.com/families-marines-killed-2022-osprey-205248331.html

Boeing updates training for new hires in manufacturing and quality
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...g-new-hires-manufacturing-quality-2024-05-23/
https://www.boeing.com/737-9-updates#accordion-78d5956490-item-fe9b39fb63
https://www.boeing.com/737-9-updates

One Boeing whistleblower attends the memorial for another. The ‘air capital’ is on-edge
https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/one-boeing-whistleblower-attends-memorial-174447082.html

Boeing is considering bring Spirit AeroSystems back into Boeing.
https://www.spiritaero.com/company/overview/history/

 

[Flyboy]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna156993

“FAA chief says Boeing oversight was ‘too hands off’ before 737 Max 9 incident”

Gee, you don’t say.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Hopefully someone is explaining to them the difference between "oversight" and "an oversight".

 

[Flyboy]

Hopefully some folks at the FAA are restoring the fear of God (or the FAA, which is close enough) in them.

Any other manufacturer tried to get away with half this level of negligence and they would have been shut down years ago.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Why should they be afraid of the FAA?

An Aribus monopoly would be bad for the US and arguably the world. Boeing execs know that. Worst case, they sacrifice a few execs, but the ones they replace them with will have the exact same culture.

If the US had extradition treaties with Indonesia or Ethiopia, it could hand over some Boeing execs. That might give their successors some food for thought. But the US doesn't.

 

[morrobay]

Hopefully some folks at the FAA are restoring the fear of God (or the FAA, which is close enough) in them.

Any other manufacturer tried to get away with half this level of negligence and they would have been shut down years ago.

I guess they are getting away with it. We shall see if the DOJ decides to prosecute Boeing for breaching the deferred prosecution agreement next month.But one technical flight pilot who concealed flaws in the MCAS system that resulted in the Max crashes has already been acquitted.

[Post edited by the Mentors]

 

[DaveE]

Hopefully some folks at the FAA are restoring the fear of God (or the FAA, which is close enough) in them.

Any other manufacturer tried to get away with half this level of negligence and they would have been shut down years ago.

Too big to fail, I think.

Plus the FAA would have to admit that they just don't have the regulatory horsepower needed for such complex systems. Everyone thinks Boeing looks bad here, including me. But the FAA looks worse IMO.

 

[morrobay]

"An FAA directive also currently prohibits investigators from concluding whether employees actually engaged in misconduct". ?? https://www.oig.dot.gov/library-item/39435

 

[berkeman]

[Post edited by the Mentors]

Just a quick reminder for all to take care not to bring politics or conspiracy theories into this thread. Thank you.

 

[morrobay]

Let us hope that the accountability demanded by the families is realized. Somebody has to do it. https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/...-and-prosecution-of-manufacturers-executives/.

 

[morrobay]

Is anyone surprised by this possibility? https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/boeing-avoid-criminal-prosecution

 

[morrobay]

Shall reserve comment on another sweetheart deal likely.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-wants-boeing-plead-guilty-201111812.html

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Shall reserve comment on another sweetheart deal likely.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-wants-boeing-plead-guilty-201111812.html

It's done
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/business/boeing-doj-criminal-charges/index.html

 

[Nik_2213]

A 'Gotcha', IIRC, is that USAF, USMC, NASA etc are not supposed to buy equipment / services from companies with criminal record.
Unless they get a waiver...
And said waiver could include very, very, very strict conditions...

Can't remember the source, but analogies drawn with eg Brewster during WW2, whose organisational and quality flaws resembled wildest Mack Sennett slap-stick comedy...

( Also, IIRC, the similar debacle when much RAF aircraft production was moved to new Nuffield factory: Until the most problematic characters were removed, literally at gun-point, nothing useful was made. It could have lost the war... )

IIRC, Boeing's plea-bargain allows prompt setting of QA/QC requirements that a court trial and appeals unto even SCOTUS could otherwise defer for years and years and years...

 

[Dullard]

According to the article:
"The company avoided another serious penalty — the loss of the right to conduct business with the government."

 

[Flyboy]

I’m not holding my breath on this actually fixing anything.

Properly fixing the cultural and institutional issues plaguing Boeing right now is going to take several years.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It can't change quickly:

(1) The US Government is not going to "destroy Boeing in order to save it".

(2) Firing the leadership isn't going to fix anything, since their replacements come from the same culture.

(3) In the US, it is difficult to prosecute for incompetence. That leaves extradition, which might work to change future behavior, but is also not easy.

 

[morrobay]

This article from The Atlantic describes how Boeing culture distanced itself away
from engineers toward those with mba's This is separate reading away from the justice department giving Boeing two sweetheart deals, in addition to no individuals accountability from criminal negligence. Since the latter cannot be discussed accurately apolitically. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/how-boeing-lost-its-bearings/602188/

 

[Vanadium 50]

Again, in the US idiocy is not a crime.

 

[russ_watters]

(1) The US Government is not going to "destroy Boeing in order to save it".

(2) Firing the leadership isn't going to fix anything, since their replacements come from the same culture.

Maybe it should have. It seems like the changes Boeing needs are radical. Like, fire the top four levels of management and appoint the most senior engineer as CEO radical.

It's wild to me that pilot training and maintenance standardization are the main things keeping Boeing afloat right now. The 737 is almost 60 years old, and only 10 years younger than the original modern airliner, the 707. It's crazy that they are trying to keep it going for half-monopoly reasons. IMO they need to design a new airframe to take them through the next 50 years. Something that makes Southwest and their ilk want to transition to a new airframe.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's crazy that they are trying to keep it going

Is it?

Their customers like it - in a way they don't like the 727 or 757. And Airbus sells as lot of 320 ± 1 aircraft as well.

A totally new airframe is expensive, as development costs need to be recovered.

It is easier to learn to fly if you are familiar with the previous model. You can say "But this is exactly where they ran into trouble on the MAX", and Boeing would say "Exactly! We ran into trouble where we couldn't make it identical."

The public demands low ticket cost and is starting to demand low carbon emissions. The MAX "gives the people what they want".

I would characterize a number of Boeing's decisions as "short-sighted" but not as "irrational".

 

[DaveE]

The 737 is almost 60 years old

But it has been and continues to be a good aircraft. MCAS was mostly a training issue, it's not that dangerous. Other problems were basically QA, not aircraft issues.

 

[russ_watters]

But it has been and continues to be a good aircraft. MCAS was mostly a training issue, it's not that dangerous.

MCAS was mainly a programming problem. Better training might have been able to overcome it, but the root cause was the program reacting badly to bad information (a failed sensor).

 

[Vanadium 50]

Other problems were basically QA, not aircraft issues.

One can build a good airplane badly, for sure.

 

[morrobay]

This informative post on Reddit by gargravarr2112 shows how Boeing is responsible for the crashes from a series of events relating to the MCAS system. Not really incompetence or criminal negligence. Maybe reckless disregard for safety.