- #36
Pauly Man
- 129
- 0
I remember having a huge debate with one of the Physicists at uni about this. He had just written an article on the probability of intelligent life forming in the universe, and came to the conclusion that it wasn't too unlikely. Can't remember the exact figures.
In it he used statistical analysis to arrive at his answer. He used the evolution of life here on Earth as his statistical sample. A smaple size of 1!
I argued with him for an entire leture about that. I tried to tell him that the sample size was 1, and he tried to use the fact that life on the separate continents had been evolving seperately for millions of years, and that on each continent there had evolved a relatively intelligent life form had evolved. And therefore it was a sample size of greater than 1. Further more that each continent had experienced differences and therefore the samples were independant.
To me that was a load of crap. The sample all came from the same blue green planet. That is a sample size of 1, with a few independant replicates. If he had provided evidence of evolution on Mars, perhaps I would have backed down.
I think it was Loren Booda who said earlier that a sample size of one tells you very little, and that I agree with.
Anyway. Basically all I'm saying is that life on Earth probably tells us very little aboutlife elsewhere. That being said I agree with CJames, in that if intelligent life exists in our galaxy and it is at all common, we would probably have seen it evidence of it by now.
In it he used statistical analysis to arrive at his answer. He used the evolution of life here on Earth as his statistical sample. A smaple size of 1!
I argued with him for an entire leture about that. I tried to tell him that the sample size was 1, and he tried to use the fact that life on the separate continents had been evolving seperately for millions of years, and that on each continent there had evolved a relatively intelligent life form had evolved. And therefore it was a sample size of greater than 1. Further more that each continent had experienced differences and therefore the samples were independant.
To me that was a load of crap. The sample all came from the same blue green planet. That is a sample size of 1, with a few independant replicates. If he had provided evidence of evolution on Mars, perhaps I would have backed down.
I think it was Loren Booda who said earlier that a sample size of one tells you very little, and that I agree with.
Anyway. Basically all I'm saying is that life on Earth probably tells us very little aboutlife elsewhere. That being said I agree with CJames, in that if intelligent life exists in our galaxy and it is at all common, we would probably have seen it evidence of it by now.