Progress in Afghanistan: What's Next After 6 Years of War?

[Astronuc]

Interesting perspective on Afghanistan.

What Are We Doing in Afghanistan?
http://www.slate.com/id/2210624
We're still figuring that out.
By Fred Kaplan

Not long ago, Afghanistan was known as "the good war." Now some are calling it "Obama's Vietnam." Both tags exaggerate. . . .

Unlike those who got us into Vietnam, today's top officials—including President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates—at least see the specter. Both have emphasized that their goals in Afghanistan are limited; daydreams of turning the place into a democratic republic—"some central Asian Valhalla," as Gates snorted in recent hearings—are over. Gates further stated at those hearings, before the Senate armed services committee, that he would endorse his commanders' request for three additional brigades—but that he'd be "deeply skeptical" of subsequent requests for more. The fighting needs to be done mainly by Afghan troops, he said, adding that if the Afghan people begin to see it as an American war, "we will go the way of other imperial occupiers."

. . . . .

On a side note - Kyrgyzstan says U.S. air base decision is final
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090206/ts_nm/us_kyrgyzstan_usa_base_28

BISHKEK (Reuters) – Kyrgyzstan said on Friday its decision to shut a U.S. air base was final, dealing a blow to Washington's efforts to retain what has been an important staging post for U.S. forces fighting in Afghanistan.

The United States said it was still "engaged" with Kyrgyzstan about keeping the Manas base in the poor, former Soviet republic and traditional Russian ally. But one senior Kyrgyz official said no talks were currently taking place.

Kyrgyzstan's stance has set a tough challenge for new U.S. President Barack Obama, who plans to send more troops to Afghanistan to try to boost NATO efforts to defeat Taliban and al Qaeda insurgents.

The standoff over the tiny but strategically placed nation marks a new twist in an escalating power struggle in Central Asia reminiscent of the 19th-century "Great Game" between tsarist Russia and the British Empire.

"The air base's fate has been decided," Adakhan Madumarov, Secretary of the Kyrgyz Security Council, told reporters.

"I see no reason why the air base should remain in place now that this decision has been taken ... We are not holding any talks on this," he added, hinting there will be no further discussions with Washington on the air base.

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced the closure of the base this week after securing more than $2 billion in financial aid and credit from Russia at talks in Moscow.

The announcement left the United States scrambling to find alternative supply routes through other parts of Central Asia for shipments bound for landlocked Afghanistan.

Speaking in Tajikistan, another ex-Soviet republic in Central Asia, the U.S. envoy to Dushanbe said Tajikistan had agreed to offer its air space for transport of non-military NATO supplies to Afghanistan.

A Western diplomatic source told Reuters separately on Thursday the United States was close to a deal with Uzbekistan that would also allow Washington to open a new railway supply route for its troops in Afghanistan.
. . . .
RUSSIAN POSITION

Russia, irked by the U.S. military presence in Kyrgyzstan which it regards as part of its strategic sphere of interest, has long exerted pressure on the landlocked and mountainous Central Asian country to evict the U.S. forces.

. . . .

The Russians have offered to allow US transit of 'non-lethal' aid, e.g. food and supplies, and medical evacuations. I'm sure they are pleased to accept the money.

Uzbekistan has had a somewhat repressive government. All of the Central Asian countries are relatively poor, and their trade is hampered by powerful or unstable neighbors - not to mention corruption.

As someone correctly pointed out, both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan (in fact all the stans) have had governments, which are problematic with respect to observing basic human and civil rights.

 

[mgb_phys]

Uzbekistan has had a somewhat repressive government.

No it isn't, it's a haven of peace and light in the region - a central asian Switzerland.
The British foreign office fired their ambassador for criticizing it.
Of course now we don't need t's airstrip, and we aren't torturing suspects there - opinions might be change.

 

[Astronuc]

Analysis: US base falls victim to Kyrgyz crisis
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_re_as/as_kyrgyzstan_us_base_analysis

Kyrgyzstan may have felt it had no choice in expelling the U.S. from a base vital to the war in Afghanistan.

Months of crippling electricity shortages, soaring food prices and rampant unemployment have caused misery for much of the population. A reinvigorated opposition has threatened to stage nationwide protests against President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

Against that backdrop, Russia pledged to help raise $1.7 billion for a much-needed hydropower plant and issue a $300 million low-interest 40-year loan repayable over a 40-year period. Moscow also agreed to give $150 million in aid and cancel an outstanding $190 million debt.

But Russia has also made clear its objections to the Manas air base, saying it was only supposed to remain for two years after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
. . . .
Kyrgyzstan, a largely Muslim, mountainous former Soviet nation on China's western frontier, has long been viewed as a relative oasis of democracy in a region that boasts some of the world's most repressive dictatorships. But observers believe Bakiyev, who himself came to power in 2005 as the result of a nominally pro-Western popular uprising, is on a drive to strengthen his grip on power.

New York-based democracy watchdog organization Freedom House noted in its latest country report on Kyrgyzstan that democratic rights and press freedoms have steadily worsened over the last year.
. . . .

Let's see what Bakiyev and his administration do in the near term.

 

[Astronuc]

Obama's biggest foreign policy challenge? It's Pakistan
http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20090207/wl_mcclatchy/3162640

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A nearly completed U.S. military study is expected to say that nuclear-armed Pakistan , not Iraq , Afghanistan or Iran , is the most urgent foreign policy challenge facing President Barack Obama .

Pakistan , convulsed by a growing al Qaida -backed insurgency, hamstrung by a ruinous economy and run by an unpopular government that's paralyzed by infighting and indecision, is critical to U.S. efforts to stabilize Afghanistan , thwart the spread of nuclear weapons and prevent tensions with neighboring India from escalating into a nuclear showdown.

The U.S. Central Command review is assessing the situation in the Middle East and South Asia as the Obama administration plans to draw down U.S. forces in Iraq and double the 30,000-strong American military presence in Afghanistan , several people involved in the study told McClatchy . They spoke on condition of anonymity because the study is still underway and they weren't authorized to discuss it publicly.

The assessment, they said, is expected to recommend major changes in the U.S. approach to the volatile region, including major increases in U.S. aid to Pakistan in areas such as public education, health care and good governance, in a bid to stem the poverty and illiteracy that help fuel the country's Islamic insurgency.

Stepped up non-military aid also could ease popular anger at the government and its chief ally, the United States , which many Pakistanis accuse of stoking the insurgency by relying primarily on military offensives and missile strikes that have claimed numerous civilian lives, the officials said.
. . . .

The Pakistani Taliban control most of the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan and have seized Swat, a valley 100 miles from Islamabad . Electricity and food shortages have sparked unrest and stalled industrial production, and the stock market has dropped more than 60 percent while the Pakistani rupee has fallen 30 percent against the dollar in the last year.

Meanwhile, the coalition government led by President Asif Ali Zardari, mired in infighting and incompetence, has failed to unite around a strategy to contain the crisis, and some U.S. and Pakistani experts warn that there's a growing danger that Pakistan could have its fifth military coup since it won its independence from Britain in 1947.
. . . .

Well it seems that Afghanistan and NW Pakistan are the immediate and long-term challenges, in addition to the ME, and parts of Africa, and perhaps parts of S. America.

 

[WhoWee]

This is the real problem in Pakistan...not just for the US...but the entire world.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/index.html

To really understand the importance, I think everyone needs to look closely at a map of the area...India and China to the East, the Middle East to the West...Russia to the North...and a border with Iran.

Predator drones have long been the safest and least offensive (to the population) way to "work" in the area...however, a troop build-up in Afghanistan will undoubtedly create new challenges to diplomacy.

 

[Astronuc]

Afghan [Karzai] Leader Finds Himself Hero No More
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/world/asia/08karzai.html

KABUL, Afghanistan — A foretaste of what would be in store for President Hamid Karzai after the election of a new American administration came last February, when Joseph R. Biden Jr., then a senator, sat down to a formal dinner at the palace during a visit here.

Between platters of lamb and rice, Mr. Biden and two other American senators questioned Mr. Karzai about corruption in his government, which, by many estimates, is among the worst in the world. Mr. Karzai assured Mr. Biden and the other senators that there was no corruption at all and that, in any case, it was not his fault.

The senators gaped in astonishment. After 45 minutes, Mr. Biden threw down his napkin and stood up.

“This dinner is over,” Mr. Biden announced, according to one of the people in the room at the time. And the three senators walked out, long before the appointed time.

Today, of course, Mr. Biden is the vice president.

The world has changed for Mr. Karzai, and for Afghanistan, too. A White House favorite — a celebrity in flowing cape and dark gray fez — in each of the seven years that he has led this country since the fall of the Taliban, Mr. Karzai now finds himself not so favored at all. Not by Washington, and not by his own.

In the White House, President Obama said he regarded Mr. Karzai as unreliable and ineffective. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said he presided over a “narco-state.” The Americans making Afghan policy, worried that the war is being lost, are vowing to bypass Mr. Karzai and deal directly with the governors in the countryside.

At home, Mr. Karzai faces a widening insurgency and a population that blames him for the manifest lack of economic progress and the corrupt officials that seem to stand at every doorway of his government. His face, which once adorned the walls of tea shops across the country, is today much less visible.

. . . .

Pity that this situation dragged on as long as it did. I'm pleased to see that the Obama administration is addressing the problem of the opium trade in Afghanistan.

 

[Art]

Afghan [Karzai] Leader Finds Himself Hero No More
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/world/asia/08karzai.html

Pity that this situation dragged on as long as it did. I'm pleased to see that the Obama administration is addressing the problem of the opium trade in Afghanistan.

The problem the West has in Afghanistan is there are no 'good' guys to support. Karzai is seen as the best of a bad bunch and so he currently is feted by the West.

Under the Taleban there was no opium trade so why not allow them back into power providing they break all links with international Islamic extremists with the threat of tactical bombing if they misbehave. They would probably be too busy fighting their old tribal wars to be too much of an international problem anyway.

Maybe in a couple of hundred years ordinary Afghanis will be ready to embrace Western ideology but for now it seems an utterly fruitless exercise to attempt to force it upon them, if they prefer to be locked in the past so be it, let them.

It is becoming more and more difficult to discern what exactly is the mission in Afghanistan??

 

[WhoWee]

The problem the West has in Afghanistan is there are no 'good' guys to support. Karzai is seen as the best of a bad bunch and so he currently is feted by the West.

Under the Taleban there was no opium trade so why not allow them back into power providing they break all links with international Islamic extremists with the threat of tactical bombing if they misbehave. They would probably be too busy fighting their old tribal wars to be too much of an international problem anyway.

Maybe in a couple of hundred years ordinary Afghanis will be ready to embrace Western ideology but for now it seems an utterly fruitless exercise to attempt to force it upon them, if they prefer to be locked in the past so be it, let them.

It is becoming more and more difficult to discern what exactly is the mission in Afghanistan??

Are you sure there was no opium trade...or was it less apparent?

 

[Proton Soup]

Afghan [Karzai] Leader Finds Himself Hero No More
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/world/asia/08karzai.html

Pity that this situation dragged on as long as it did. I'm pleased to see that the Obama administration is addressing the problem of the opium trade in Afghanistan.

getting rid of the poppies may be a strategic mistake. opium keeps the muslims in western china funded, and therefore makes it harder for the chinese government to establish a strong presence in the region.

although afghanistan is resource-poor, it's in a strategic position as far as caspian sea pipelines are concerned. i don't think Obama will find bin Laden, either. we can't afford to. if we did, people would expect us to leave.

 

[mheslep]

...Under the Taleban there was no opium trade so why not allow them back into power providing they break all links with international Islamic extremists with the threat of tactical bombing if they misbehave. They would probably be too busy fighting their old tribal wars to be too much of an international problem anyway.

Maybe in a couple of hundred years ordinary Afghanis will be ready to embrace Western ideology but for now it seems an utterly fruitless exercise to attempt to force it upon them, if they prefer to be locked in the past so be it, let them.

It is becoming more and more difficult to discern what exactly is the mission in Afghanistan??

If your position is that it's tolerable to have the Taliban return and behave as they did before, which clearly means treating all females as cattle, chopping off all the hands of the opium producers, and executing all dissenters; then why the concern about some tragic civilian deaths in a military operation here:

Yet more civilians killed by 'accident'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7713065.stm
Given the lack of impact of numerous previous condemnations of attacks leading to civilian deaths it seems until a military commander is actually held responsible for one of these atrocities it is likely they will continue unabated.

Even if the military top brass care nothing for civilian casualties they must realize these reckless attacks are the perfect recruiting sergeant for anti-western forces.

 

[Astronuc]

although afghanistan is resource-poor, it's in a strategic position as far as caspian sea pipelines are concerned. i don't think Obama will find bin Laden, either. we can't afford to. if we did, people would expect us to leave.

Afghanistan is poor in some resources, particularly energy, education and infrastructure, but the country sits astride huge deposits of metals, as does Baluchistan province in Pakistan, the nations of Iran and Turkey, and many parts of East Africa.

To process the ores, one needs technology and energy, which is sorely lacking in most of those nations. Iran has energy supplies and Turkey has technology.


The Taliban were reactionary and taking Afghanistan backward. They were a problem for the west, particularly the US, since they harbored al Qaida.

 

[Art]

If your position is that it's tolerable to have the Taliban return and behave as they did before, which clearly means treating all females as cattle, chopping off all the hands of the opium producers, and executing all dissenters; then why the concern about some tragic civilian deaths in a military operation here:

Afghanis can ill-treat each other as much as they like. If the general populace don't approve they won't put up with it. The sad fact is they like their ancient customs and practices. It may seem barbaric to us in the West but you don't exactly see ordinary Afghanis rushing out to welcome the NATO liberators for saving them from barbarism. Apart from the opium growers and the corrupt officials of course.

Regarding your specific question I have two problems with NATO forces killing civilians. First we are supposed to be better than that, both morally and militarily and secondly it creates resentment and hatred for the West which translates into violence against Western countries. Seeing as how our excuse for being there is to curb terrorism these mistakes seem to be in direct conflict with the mission. Killing one terrorist whilst you create 10 more doesn't seem to me like a winning strategy. Nor does protecting opium growers from the Taleban so they will 'like' us.

 

[Astronuc]

Afghanis can ill-treat each other as much as they like. If the general populace don't approve they won't put up with it. The sad fact is they like their ancient customs and practices. It may seem barbaric to us in the West but you don't exactly see ordinary Afghanis rushing out to welcome the NATO liberators for saving them from barbarism.

Actually, one will see many ordinary Aghanis who are happy to have the presence of Americans and westerners, but they dare not show that appreciation publicly lest they be target for retaliation.

A big problem is that the US and Nato forces cannot be everywhere, all the time, and especially at night. When US and Nato forces return to their bases, and the Taliban and al-Qaida sympathizers show up and kill whomever showed support for the US, Nato or the Afghan government (similar problem in Iraq). The vast majority of Afghanis are caught between the warring factions.

In the 1970's Afghanistan had a economy bifurcated between a rural, largely subsistence economy and an urban economy largely dependent on a state that in turn drew most of its income from the international state system and market. Agriculture and pastoralism accounted for more than 60 percent of GDP, and about 85 percent of the population depended on the rural economy for its livelihood.

Ref: Afganistan by Angelo Rasanayagam

That's still much the case, except for the increased US aid, too much of which has gone to corrupt officials. And some Afghanis, like some in Pakistan, go to the Gulf States for work and send remittances home to support family.

Some Afghanis are certainly angry or weary of US and Nato, particularly after US and Nato forces have bombed villages and killed many civilians (women and children).

 

[mheslep]

Afghanis can ill-treat each other as much as they like. If the general populace don't approve they won't put up with it. The sad fact is they like their ancient customs and practices. It may seem barbaric to us in the West but you don't exactly see ordinary Afghanis rushing out to welcome the NATO liberators for saving them from barbarism. Apart from the opium growers and the corrupt officials of course.

Though certainly no people relish the presence of foreign troops on their soil, the recent information I have from friends stationed over there is the opposite: generally locals are eager to point out to NATO troops infiltrating international fighters from Pakistan or the Middle East so that NATO can dispatch them. Visibly the Northern Alliance people were more than happy to join with NATO in the initial over throw of the Taliban. In any case I generally reject the view that the current problems there are all rooted in intractable ancient customs, or that the Taliban represents the general populace. Much of Afghani society was destroyed by the Soviets in the 80's, then the remaining rubble of society was bounced and pulverized into a finer dust by ~seven years under the Taliban. (More on the http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/1573181.stm" later, time permitting.). And a better comparison for the Taliban than the populace at large would be a (Pakistani backed) Klu Klux Klan, which happily was opposed by force when necessary.

Regarding your specific question I have two problems with NATO forces killing civilians. First we are supposed to be better than that, both morally and militarily and secondly it creates resentment and hatred for the West which translates into violence against Western countries. Seeing as how our excuse for being there is to curb terrorism these mistakes seem to be in direct conflict with the mission. Killing one terrorist whilst you create 10 more doesn't seem to me like a winning strategy. Nor does protecting opium growers from the Taleban so they will 'like' us.

Fair enough, but I've not seen the evidence that the situation is quantitatively that bad, or if indeed it is that it is likely to stay that way or worsen, especially given the demonstrated know how of Gen. Petraeus on this 'hearts and minds' topic in Iraq, though if the irretrievably lost case is made I agree, withdraw. The evidence of this would have to be pretty good, since the alternative posited above: withdraw "providing they break all links with international Islamic extremists with the threat of tactical bombing if they misbehave" must be a much less secure policy; AQ already faced tactical bombing before 9/11 (Sudan '98, etc) to little effect; bombing in general without eyes&boots on the ground is less effective tactically and more tragic for innocents.

 

[Astronuc]

Whooops! - Thousands of US weapons astray in Afghanistan: auditors
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090212/pl_afp/usafghanistanmilitarypoliticscongress

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Thousands of US weapons, including assault rifles and grenade launchers, may be in Taliban or Al-Qaeda hands in Afghanistan because of lax controls, congressional auditors warned on Thursday.

The Pentagon has failed to track an estimated 87,000 weapons given to Afghan security forces, one-third of the 242,000 shipped by the US government between December 2004 and June 2008, the Government Accountability Office said.

A 46-page report by the GAO, the non-partisan investigative arm of Congress, said there had been no monitoring of a further 135,000 weapons donated by NATO allies to the poorly paid and corruption-rife Afghan army and police.

Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman said the Pentagon had already taken action on the report's recommendations for tracking of serial numbers and physical inventories of weapons given by both the United States and allies.
. . . .

Not exactly the progress we need.

 

[WhoWee]

Maybe Senator Patrick Leahy should go over and investigate.

 

[drizzle]

Why don’t you look at this generally …… countries that US have claimed that they involve or associate with terrorism….Afghanistan … Iran… Iraq... Syria… Lebanon… Palestine ….doesn’t that form a belt what are they really looking for ? or are they waiting to do something and create causes to fill the gaps between those countries and form a perfect belt.. then reveal their real goals??

 

[WhoWee]

I think you forgot Saudi Arabia

 

[edward]

Most sources I have read indicated that Afghanistan has no or few natural resources. My assumption from that information now appears to be wrong.

JALREZ VALLEY, Afghanistan — In this Taliban stronghold in the mountains south of Kabul, the U.S. Army is providing the security that will enable China to exploit one of the world's largest unexploited deposits of copper, earn tens of billions of dollars and feed its voracious appetite for raw materials.

U.S. troops set up bases last month along a dirt track that a Chinese firm is paving as part of a $3 billion project to gain access to the Aynak copper reserves. Some troops made camp outside a compound built for the Chinese road crews, who are about to return from winter break. American forces also have expanded their presence in neighboring Logar province, where the Aynak deposit is.

The U.S. deployment wasn't intended to protect the Chinese investment — the largest in Afghanistan's history — but to strangle Taliban infiltration into the capital of Kabul. But if the mission provides the security that a project to revive Afghanistan's economy needs, the synergy will be welcome.

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_11863389?source=rss

Edit: OK let's add some oil.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Afghanistan also has more than 1.5 billion barrels of oil — almost untapped since soldiers of Alexander the Great discovered pools of oil in the north more than 2,000 years ago — and 15 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/fromcomments/283335.php

 

[Astronuc]

There are developed gas fields in Baluchistan, which is the Pakistani province on the southern border of Afghanistan.

Eastern Afghanistan sits astride the Tethyan Metallogenic Belt, which travel across the middle of Turkey, Iran, Baluchistan, and turns up into Afghanistan from Kandahar through Kabul, then turns east through the Wakhan corridor and N. Pakistan and over to Tibet.

The area is relatively rich in copper, gold and other heavy metals.

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/afghanminerals/docs/afghan_supp_final.pdf

BHP Billiton has a big copper development in Baluchistan.

 

[Astronuc]

In Tactical Shift, Troops Will Stay and Hold Ground in Afghanistan
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/03/world/asia/03afghan.html

. . . “This is not simply to remove Taliban influence, but to replace that influence with security operations and reconstruction,” the officer said. “It is not simply about killing the enemy, but about protecting the population and improving their lives, which will help prohibit the return of insurgent elements.”
. . . .

Finally the Surge comes to Afghanistan, but something like this should have been done 20 years ago - then probably by the UN, or some multi-national force.

Meanwhile -

U.S. Faces Resentment in Afghan Region
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/03/world/asia/03helmand.html

Villagers in some districts have taken up arms against foreign troops to protect their homes or in anger after losing relatives in airstrikes, several community representatives interviewed said. Others have been moved to join the insurgents out of poverty or simply because the Taliban’s influence is so pervasive here.

On Thursday morning, 4,000 American Marines began a major offensive to try to take back the region from the strongest Taliban insurgency in the country. The Marines are part of a larger deployment of additional troops being ordered by the new American commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, to concentrate not just on killing Taliban fighters but on protecting the population.
. . . .

I hope McChrystal's strategy is successful.

 

[mohd_adam]

In Tactical Shift, Troops Will Stay and Hold Ground in Afghanistan

For the members of Taliban , they will not fight the American Troops because Taliban doesn't have army. What will the members of Taliban do ?
Most of them will return to stay with their families , after some time they will start attack the American Troops ( attack and retreat ) . How many years will the American Troops stay in Afghanistan !?
For Russia , china , North Korea and Iran , these countries want American Troops to stay in Afghanistan forever !
The Troops will not solve the problem of Afghanistan.

 

[mohd_adam]

Soviet war in Afghanistan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_in_Afghanistan

Russia said Friday it will allow the United States to ship weapons across its territory to Afghanistan

[PLAIN]http://buzz.yahoo.com

[/PLAIN]

The question is why does Russia want to help America!?

 

[mheslep]

Russia said Friday it will allow the United States to ship weapons across its territory to Afghanistan

[PLAIN]http://buzz.yahoo.com

[/PLAIN]

The question is why does Russia want to help America!?

Russia wants to help itself. Russia does not want a radical Islamic state on its border.

 

[Astronuc]

There are a number of NGOs operating in Afghanistan.

Here is one such group - http://www.arghand.org/

Arghand was founded in May 2005, by Sarah Chayes, a former National Public Radio reporter who stayed behind in Afghanistan to help rebuild the war-torn country. She and a handful of loyal and daring Kandaharis decided to explore a notion for how to add value to celebrated local fruit crops, long the fame of the region. Given the explosion in international demand for fine natural skin-care products, and the abundance of their raw materials in the orchards of southern Afghanistan – almonds, apricots, pomegranates, the precious blossoms of Rosa damascena – Arghand members decided to try to carve out a place for Afghanistan in this young market.
. . . .
Arghand’s long-term objective is to contribute to the process of weaning southern Afghanistan off of its dependence on the opium poppy. This scourge is distorting the region’s economy, criminalizing its politics, and putting its people at the mercy of armed gangs and so-called insurgents. . . . .

NGOs are generally funded by private donations, not by governments.

 

[Astronuc]

http://www.cnas.org/afghanistan

Afghanistan has long had an outsized role in world affairs, first from an excess of interest, but now from an excess of neglect. The 1979 Soviet invasion launched the last major war of the 20th century, undoing the USSR and ushering in more than two decades of occupation, civil war, and Taliban rule for Afghanistan. On September 11, 2001, the first major war of the 21st century began, with Afghanistan again at its center.

Six years on, Western promises and Afghan hopes are at great risk. Donor fatigue and strategic confusion afflict the governments and populations of many NATO contributors. Violence in the country is increasing, governance is fragile, and economic development is too slow to provide compelling alternatives to warlordism and the drug trade. There is widespread concern that Afghanistan’s 2009 national elections cannot be held if such conditions persist.

Afghanistan, however, is a long way from lost. The CNAS Afghanistan Project starts from the premise that Afghanistan can either become an anchor in the region and a counterweight to uncertainty, or it can accelerate the forces of fragmentation that imperil vital American and allied interests and regional stability. The next American administration—regardless of political party—will have a window of opportunity within which to adopt “breakthrough ideas” in Afghanistan that can set the right course for regional and global security.

. . . .

CNAS is an important group to watch.

 

[mgb_phys]

How many years will the American Troops stay in Afghanistan !?

Two months ago 2 British soldiers were killed by terrorists in Northern Ireland as they were leaving for Afghanistan.
Britain achieved military victory in Ireland in 1652, President Bush declared military victory in Afghanistan in 2004 - so you only have another 352 years to go!

 

[Astronuc]

Karzai Using Rift With U.S. to Gain Favor With Afghans
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/29/world/asia/29prexy.html

. . . .
But now, as reports mount of widespread fraud in the balloting, including allegations that supporters of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, illegally stuffed ballot boxes in the south and ripped up ballots cast for his opponents, Mr. Obama’s early praise may soon come back to haunt him.

Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission said Friday that it had received more than 2,000 complaints of fraud or abuse in last week’s election. Mr. Karzai’s biggest rival, Abdullah Abdullah, showed reporters video of a local election chief in one polling station stuffing ballot boxes himself.

. . . .

With friends like this . . . .

Meanwhile -

Army Farmers Work to Regrow Afghanistan
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/08/army-farmers-work-to-regrow-afghanistan/

DASHT ROBAT, Afghanistan — U.S. assistance to Afghanistan often arrives in the form of cash, disbursed to local contractors through the Commander’s Emergency Response Program. But it also comes in the form of fertilizer spreaders, pesticide sprayers, shovels and rakes — and Midwestern common sense.

Perhaps nothing exemplifies the “Peace Corps with guns” approach to Afghanistan more than the U.S. Army’s Agribusiness Development Teams, or ADTs. As part of a relatively new experiment, Army National Guard volunteers from agricultural states have deployed here to train and advise Afghan farmers and agricultural officials on modern farming techniques and business practices. The first teams, fielded last year, were from Missouri and Texas; others have followed from places like Tennessee, Kansas and Indiana.

I recently spent time with the Nebraska National Guard’s ADT, which covers a sizeable chunk of north-central Afghanistan: Parwan, Kapisa, Bamiyan and Panjshir provinces. All of the team members, except one, are non-commissioned officers; in civilian life, they all work in agriculture or agribusiness. It’s an approach that seems to make sense: Military commanders can throw millions of dollars at their problems through reconstruction funding, but most are not trained development officers or engineers. All too often, money is poured into schools that can’t afford teachers, clinics that don’t have doctors, or roads that won’t be maintained.

Go Army!

http://www.army.mil/aps/08/information_papers/other/ARNG_Agribusiness_Development_Team.html

 

[Astronuc]

Remembering Freed Reporter's Slain Afghan Aide
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112685212

'New York Times' Reporter Freed In Afghan Raid
by The Associated Press
September 9, 2009

British commandos freed a New York Times reporter early Wednesday from Taliban captors who kidnapped him over the weekend in northern Afghanistan, but one of the commandos and a Times translator were killed in the rescue, officials said.

Reporter Stephen Farrell was taken hostage along with his translator in the northern province of Kunduz on Saturday. German commanders had ordered U.S. jets to drop bombs on two hijacked fuel tankers, causing a number of civilian casualties, and reporters traveled to the area to cover the story.
. . . .
The Times reported that Farrell's Afghan translator, Sultan Munadi, 34, also was killed. Farrell was unhurt.
. . . .
Munadi was first employed by The New York Times in 2002, according to his colleagues. He left the company a few years later to work for a local radio station.

He left Afghanistan last year to study for a master's degree in Germany. He came back to Kabul last month for a holiday and to see his family, and agreed to accompany Farrell to Kunduz on a freelance basis. He was married and had two young sons.

In a New York Times Web blog this month, Munadi wrote that he would never leave Afghanistan permanently and that "being a journalist is not enough; it will not solve the problems of Afghanistan. I want to work for the education of the country, because the majority of people are illiterate."

"And if I leave this country, if other people like me leave this country, who will come to Afghanistan?" he wrote. "Will it be the Taliban who come to govern this country? That is why I want to come back, even if it means cleaning the streets of Kabul. That would be a better job for me, rather than working, for example, in a restaurant in Germany."

Munadi's commentary on Afghanistan
http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/02/hell-no-i-wont-go/

Afghan Reporter Recalled as a Man of Many Abilities
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/world/asia/10munadi.html

RIP Sultan

 

[mheslep]

RIP Sultan

Thanks for that Astronuc

 

[mheslep]

August was the worst month so far in Afghanistan for coalition fatalities - 77 (72 from hostile action), total coalition fatalities now since the 2001 invasion: 1409.
http://www.icasualties.org/OEF/ByMonth.aspx

Also I had thought most of the fighting was occurring along the eastern border provinces, or in Kandahar, when by far the largest share of fatalities is the in southern province of http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/afghanistan_rel_2003.jpg" fatalities. Edit: Since the US launched a major offensive in Helmand in July to take back some areas/towns from the Taliban before the August election, its likely many of these Helmand fatalities were recent and from the US Marines, who staged the Helmand offensive.

 

[mheslep]

Staff Sgt. Jered Monti, 30, was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor Thursday Sept 17 by President Obama for his actions on 21 June, 2006 in which he was killed.

Sgt. Monti is the second CMOH recipient in the Afghanistan war.

"[URL
Remarks by President Obama[/URL]
http://www.history.army.mil/html/moh/afghanistan.html"

The incident took place in http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&sou...35.32633,70.905762&spn=6.353102,9.876709&z=7"province along the eastern border with Pakistan.

More bio from WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/AFGHANISTAN-CASUALTY-COUNT.html

Sgt. 1st Class Jared Christopher Monti
Age: 30
Hometown: Raynham, Mass.
Died: Thursday, June 22, 2006

Jared C. Monti seemed to always put the needs of others before his own.
While serving in South Korea, he was swept down a river after testing a crossing to make sure it was safe. In Kosovo, he picked up a group of Albanian kids who were being harassed by Serbs and drove them to school. He never went home for Christmas or Thanksgiving because he wanted the married guys to be with their families.
"We use to send him care packages, and he would give them to all the kids," said his brother, Tim. "He carried candy around in his pocket for them, and he would tell us how he would give kids rides in the Humvee because they were scared to walk across town."
Monti, 30, of Raynham, Mass., was killed June 21 by small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades in Gowardesh. He was assigned to Fort Drum.
He joined the Army immediately after he graduated high school in 1994 to make enough money to go to college. He wanted to be a fifth-grade teacher.
He is survived by his parents, Paul and Janet.
"He was just a kid that liked people and did a lot of things quietly. He was a very humble boy," said his father.

 

[mheslep]

Nurestan photo from Reuters photographer Oleg Popov

"A U.S. soldier wounded by sniper fire was evacuated by his comrades in the village of Bargematal, Nuristan province, Afghanistan, on Tuesday. (Oleg Popov/Reuters)"

Barge Matal village again, photo from Army Sgt Matther Moeller.

Flikr photo set from unknown US unit.
http://www.flickr.com/groups/1026311@N20/pool/with/3940306853/Interactive events map of day to day events in Pakistan (subscription?)
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-AFGHANISTANPAKISTANHOTSPOTS09.html

 

[mheslep]

PBS Frontline's rolling out their Afghanistan piece.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/obamaswar/"

Background links:
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/Assessment_Redacted_092109.pdf" , leaked by WaPo. September 2009
http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/afghanistan_pakistan_white_paper_final.pdf"
"[URL
Summary of Army Report on major Counter Insurgency failure[/URL], Tom Ricks (WaPo reporter and author of Fiasco), Foreign Policy Magazine, July 23, 2009
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-on-a-New-Strategy-for-Afghanistan-and-Pakistan/" , March 27, 2009
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/swm/index.htm" , 1940

Multimedia link to the big June 11 CNAS think tank panel discussion referenced in the Front Line video.
http://www.cnas.org/june2009

 

[mheslep]

September US fatalities declined a bit from August. Most of the Septembers have shown declines.
http://www.icasualties.org/OEF/ByMonth.aspx
Helmand province seems to have more than its share of the violence, as it's had 10 fatalities alone since Sept 22.