Progress in Afghanistan: What's Next After 6 Years of War?

[zomgwtf]

Wouldn't it be best to get the *bleep* out of Afghanistan, the sooner the better?
All these years and all that waste of money and life - and achieving funk-all. Nada. Zip. Zilch. NOTHING!

Errr, sources?

 

[MotoH]

Wouldn't it be best to get the *bleep* out of Afghanistan, the sooner the better?
All these years and all that waste of money and life - and achieving funk-all. Nada. Zip. Zilch. NOTHING!

Oh wow. April fools?

Perhaps you haven't read about the progress in Marjah, or the 50+ top Taliban leaders captured in the past 2 months. We are finally getting the push we need, and I believe Kandahar is next

 

[mgb_phys]

Getting to 600,000 is daunting but not impossible; Iraq has done it. However the real size of the immediate requirement is smaller because the insurgency is concentrated among the Pashtuns who form half the population, or roughly 15 million people. If you apply the ratio to Pashtuns only, you get a requirement of 300,000 security personnel. That's more in the ballpark of what American and Afghan resources can provide in the near future.

So have a security force consisting of the ruling tribe 'A' large enough to overwhelm the civilians of tribe 'B' who you assume are all suspected terrorists.

Then resolve to get tough and crush the terrorists and all the other things you promise before elections - worked out well everywhere else it's been done.

 

[Max Faust]

the progress in Marjah, or the 50+ top Taliban leaders captured

We must have quite different standards for what constitutes a military achievement then.
You can spend five hundred frakkin' years in Afghanistan and still achieve nothing. Sure, you can blow up some houses and kill some rugged goat-herders here and there but the only real change that has happened in Afghanistan since 2001 is that they are now the world's number one heroin manufacturer again. Good job!

 

[mgb_phys]

the only real change that has happened in Afghanistan since 2001 is that they are now the world's number one heroin manufacturer again. Good job!

But most of the people it kills are Russians so we win.
At the moment 85% of Afghanistan's heroin is exported to Iran, the only thing stopping most of it reaching europe is that Iran has a somewhat zealous attitude to stopping drug smugglers.
Odd that they want to play at being a nuclear power when if they want to kill 1000s of westerners a year all they have to do is to cut their anti-smuggling program.

No doubt once we get around to to democratizilating Iran (watch for around $150/barrel) that interruption to international trade will be removed.

 

[Max Faust]

85% of Afghanistan's heroin is exported to Iran

Speaking of Iran, has it passed completely under the radar that Hamid Karzai recently had a meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad where they discussed future relations with regards to the project of rebuilding Afghanistan? It's REALLY REALLY hard to see who else but Iran that stands to gain from the Bush wars. (Considering that the political majority of the Iraqi people are Iran-friendly shi'ites.) So yes, that sure was a well-spent trillion dollars.

 

[jreelawg]

It's all good, the U.S. gets it's share of the worlds prescription heroine.

"Of all countries, the United States had the highest total consumption of oxycodone in 2007 (82% of the world total of 51.6 tons)."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxycodone#Clinical_use

That ought to be enough for us to get our fix.

 

[Max Faust]

the worlds prescription heroine

Heh... that reminds me of the stupid burglars who couldn't tell oxycontin from oxytocin...

It's not nice to laugh at these gentlemen of private enterprise.

 

[mheslep]

Wouldn't it be best to get the *bleep* out of Afghanistan, the sooner the better?
All these years and all that waste of money and life - and achieving funk-all. Nada. Zip. Zilch. NOTHING!

Please don't derail this two year old thread..

 

[mheslep]

So have a security force consisting of the ruling tribe 'A' large enough to overwhelm the civilians of tribe 'B' who you assume are all suspected terrorists.

Then resolve to get tough and crush the terrorists and all the other things you promise before elections - worked out well everywhere else it's been done.

Visibly counter-insurgency worked in Iraq. You know this. Why the counter factual sarcasm?

 

[mgb_phys]

I had forgotten Shia and Sunni were now iving in harmony in Iraq -
I thought there was a massive civil war between terrorists and government death squads with a large US/UK/Canadian force stuck in the middle desperately trying not to get caught in the cross fire.

 

[mheslep]

I had forgotten Shia and Sunni were now iving in harmony in Iraq -

Strawman, again which you know.

I thought there was a massive civil war between terrorists and government death squads with a large US/UK/Canadian force stuck in the middle desperately trying not to get caught in the cross fire.

Massive civil war? Source. I insist.

 

[Astronuc]

Iraq is a different topic, although the Sunni-Shii divide/conflict is regional. It affects Afghanistan, Pakistan and other nations.

Iraq and Afghanistan are not pretty, and certainly far from the ideal, but it could be a lot worse. There have been improvements in the past few years, but there's a lot of inertia to overcome.

It's about the people - and not so much the governments.

 

[Astronuc]

Well - this is not news. It's been know for quite some time that there are huge untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan and also Baluchistan (Pakistan). Afghanistan sits astride the Tethyan Metallogenic Belt.

U.S. Identifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html
By JAMES RISEN

But as more nations/corporations realize this, it raises the stakes on Afghanistan - and the Great Game continues with more

The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government could also be amplified by the new wealth, particularly if a handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the president, gain control of the resources. Just last year, Afghanistan’s minister of mines was accused by American officials of accepting a $30 million bribe to award China the rights to develop its copper mine. The minister has since been replaced.

Endless fights could erupt between the central government in Kabul and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral-rich districts. Afghanistan has a national mining law, written with the help of advisers from the World Bank, but it has never faced a serious challenge.
. . . .

Nothing new. There is a similar problem in Pakistan.

 

[arildno]

Since I don't think material riches in any way causes a good society (although a good society might be better able to generate such riches), I don't see anything positive about the vast mineral resources in Afghanistan.

We just might get ourselves a new, extremely rich country, run along the same principle as, say,..Saudi-Arabia.

 

[mheslep]

Sebastian Junger, author of the book/movie The Perfect Storm, has a book out, War, about his experiences as a journalist spending five months with a US 173rd Airborne twenty man outpost called Restrepo in the Korengal Valley in eastern Afghanistan. He has a recent video interview here, but I was particularly interested in the http://tv.nationalreview.com/uncommonknowledge/post/?q=NWVmM2JkMzRmNWY0NDM2ODhiYTkxY2NhOTYwZjhiNjE=" where he refutes some claims about Afghanistan's viability as a country. I knew a little about how Afghanistan was on an upward swing prior to the Soviet invasion, but he really drives home the point:

Junger:
I've been going to Afghanistan since 1996. It's a country I really care about. I was there in the 90s; it was a bloodbath. If NATO pulls out it is going to go back to that. That is a very, very painful thought for me to contemplate.
[...]
There was a civil war in Afghanistan in 90s that was stopped by the topping of the Taliban after 911. So, the level of suffering of the civilian population, now, is greatly reduced compared to what its been for the last 20 years in that country. I don't think the Afghans are particularly fond of the Americans, who wants to have foreign troops in their country. But, I think most of them are pretty terrified of the prospects if the world pulls out. [...]

Host:
Fouad Ajami, Middle East expert at JHU, supporter of the Iraq war [states ] Not a supporter of the Afghan war. Point number one that he made, is that, there is no Afghanistan to put back together. The idea that that it was a normal country is false: different regions, different tribes, you have overlays of tribal conflict with black markets, with different, effectively, war chieftains. How do you respond to that? [..]

Junger:
He's totally wrong. [...] That's totally wrong. Kabul was the location of the best medical school in all of Asia in the 70s', before the Soviets came in and destroyed that country and then triggered a civil war that is essentially still going on. The hippy trail went through Afghanistan, it was a place that many many western visitors went, there were museums, there were ancient monuments that tourists would go to. I mean, it wasn't unified in the sense that the US is unified, but that doesn't mean it was in conflict. It was stable for a decade. [...] It functioned.

There's tribes, there's nomads, there are all kinds of scenes right out the bible. [...] But it was a functioning country. And it was peaceful enough that people went there in the 60s and 70s regularly. It was a real tourist destination. The soviet invasion ruined that, and now the country is trying to put itself back together.
[...]
The Western world figured out how to drive the German Army out of Europe. They did D-Day. They swept France and pushed the Germans back into Germany. If they can do that, there's something like ten or twenty thousand Taliban fighters, essentially barefoot in the mountains with AKs, they [the West] can probably figure out how to win that fight. I think the problem is not a military one in Afghanistan, I think it is a political problem in the countries of Europe and the US. [...]

[...]
Every country in Europe has been attacked or has had a near miss from Al'Qaeda. Madrid , London, Holland, Italy. [...] I think the world needs to understand that the chaos and violence of Afghanistan can reach out to touch them - in the future, in a year, in ten years. It was a rogue state, it was a perfect refuge for an organization like AQ. There were no extradition treaties. [...] And, if we go back to the 90s, we may risk going back to 911

 

[BobG]

Well - this is not news. It's been know for quite some time that there are huge untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan and also Baluchistan (Pakistan). Afghanistan sits astride the Tethyan Metallogenic Belt.

U.S. Identifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html
By JAMES RISEN

But as more nations/corporations realize this, it raises the stakes on Afghanistan - and the Great Game continues with more

Nothing new. There is a similar problem in Pakistan.

Raises interesting questions.

With the promise of a profitable economy, the costs of constant warfare suddenly seem a lot larger.

On the other hand, civil wars tend to end when one party can no longer find a way to get the weapons necessary to keep fighting. If outside countries want an inroad to sharing the development of Afghanistan in return for a share of the profits, then they need to invest money in making sure 'their side' wins.

It makes it easier for the warring factions to find someone to back them financially.

The problem in Afghanistan is finding any group that actually draws from a cross section of the population (vs consisting solely from people in their own little tribal group). People like to point out the US folly in assisting the Taliban when the Soviets were controlling Afghanistan, but it went further than just being anti-Soviet. The US could have picked from among several anti-Soviet groups. The Taliban was the only group drawing from all of the tribal factions in Afghanistan, making it the most likely group to establish some stability. Granted, the US miscalculated on the strength of the Taliban's fundamentalist religious views, and on the Taliban's likelihood of picking a new 'friend' once the US lost interest, but ...

I wonder if the mineral deposits will actually help, or if it will turn Afghanistan into another Sierra Leone with their blood diamonds.

 

[mheslep]

[...] People like to point out the US folly in assisting the Taliban when the Soviets were controlling Afghanistan, but it went further than just being anti-Soviet.

The Taliban didn't exist as any kind of organization during the Soviet occupation. Mullah Omar, the Taliban founder, undertook his first reported military action as leader in 1994. Most US assistance during the Soviet occupation went to the Mujahideen, notably highly successful anti-Soviet fighters like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Shah_Massoud" , who was later assassinated by AQ and the Taliban as part of the Afghan civil war, two days before 911.

 

[Proton Soup]

Since I don't think material riches in any way causes a good society (although a good society might be better able to generate such riches), I don't see anything positive about the vast mineral resources in Afghanistan.

We just might get ourselves a new, extremely rich country, run along the same principle as, say,..Saudi-Arabia.

i think SA is something of a special case, being home to Mecca. there is an issue there of keeping up appearances, lest one become the target of a holy war.

 

[mheslep]

We just might get ourselves a new, extremely rich country, run along the same principle as, say,..Saudi-Arabia.

Yes apparently the monarchy period under http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Zahir_Shah" has seen the most stability in modern times, running the country intact and moving up for some forty years.

 

[arildno]

i think SA is something of a special case, being home to Mecca. there is an issue there of keeping up appearances, lest one become the target of a holy war.

Well, use Brunei instead. Not a very nice place for kaffirs..

 

[rmalik]

We must have quite different standards for what constitutes a military achievement then.
You can spend five hundred frakkin' years in Afghanistan and still achieve nothing. Sure, you can blow up some houses and kill some rugged goat-herders here and there but the only real change that has happened in Afghanistan since 2001 is that they are now the world's number one heroin manufacturer again. Good job!

Regarding the opium, there has been a new found "natural" virus that has infected opium farms in Afghanistan. Farmers would collect around 140 kg of opium, now get only 14 kg of opium from their harvest. They blame International Forces and US for spraying crops with chemicals, although they deny those claims. lol

I see this as a good thing, and I sort of agree with you about how not much has been achieved through the military. With Afghanistan there can only be so much work done with an army. If the co-operation of a government is not available to assist the military and foreign assistance then there is no stability. Just mass invasion and counter-insurgency alone will not do anything.

The government is pretty much controlled by the drug lords and men in hand with the Taliban, and Karzai can't do anything about it apparently. My proposition is this: Make some sort of deal with those cockroaches in the government and their puppet masters. For the hundredth time we were told about Afghanistan's vast supply of natural resources amounting to over $1 trillion US. Why can't they promise some money from the extraction of those resources to those drug lords and others? Most likely it will be the US trying to get in on the resources and maybe that is what scares off these guys.

The way I see it, nothing can be done in Afghanistan without having the government AND its people work together.

Forgive me if I made any mistakes with facts, or was not clear with my reasoning.

 

[Proton Soup]

Regarding the opium, there has been a new found "natural" virus that has infected opium farms in Afghanistan. Farmers would collect around 140 kg of opium, now get only 14 kg of opium from their harvest. They blame International Forces and US for spraying crops with chemicals, although they deny those claims. lol

ugh, are you kidding? that would be a huge destabilizing factor. i can't imagine why we'd do it intentionally at this point unless plans were already under way to replace the economy with mining of minerals. that has certainly been in the news lately. interesting.

 

[mheslep]

This summer looks to be much harder than previous summers for troops in Afghanistan.

May 2010 - 34 US fatalities.

June 2010 - [STRIKE]41[/STRIKE] 43 US fatalities (as of June 22)

http://www.icasualties.org/OEF/ByMonth.aspx

 

[Proton Soup]

found an article on the recent opium poppy blight.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LF22Df03.html

 

[mgb_phys]

For the hundredth time we were told about Afghanistan's vast supply of natural resources amounting to over $1 trillion US.

The natural resources figure was a little optimistic - that's the value of the metals in the ground IF/WHEN you could get them to a market.
Mostly it's metal ores, these are big and heavy, great if you are shipping them direct to China from Canada or Australia a little tricky from a mountainous landlocked country.
Then refining these ores requires a large capacity stable supply of electricity.

And that assumes you aren't trying to extract them in a country with an ongoing civil war.

 

[jreelawg]

I wonder, how they found these resources? It doesn't make sense to me that we wouldn't have known about this much earlier.

Does anyone know what about this particular find made it so illusive, and what methods were used to make the discovery.

 

[mheslep]

This summer looks to be much harder than previous summers for troops in Afghanistan.

June 2010 - [STRIKE]41[/STRIKE] [STRIKE]43[/STRIKE] 47 US fatalities (as of June 25)

Sadly this June is now the worst month ever in the Afghanistan war for US fatalities, and I believe for coalition fatalities as a whole.

 

[mgb_phys]

I wonder, how they found these resources? It doesn't make sense to me that we wouldn't have known about this much earlier.

Does anyone know what about this particular find made it so illusive, and what methods were used to make the discovery.

It's not a find - it's a potential source.
At the moment it's equivalent to flying a satelite over Canada, noticing the Canadian shield and concluding: "Granite -> volcanic -> kimberlite -> diamonds" therefore there is a $1T of diamonds in Canada.

True but they are buried somewhere in 5million^3 km of rock. Going from a potential $T to an operating industry is the tricky bit - and involves lots of experts with little hammers crawling over the ground for 20 years.

 

[Astronuc]

I wonder, how they found these resources? It doesn't make sense to me that we wouldn't have known about this much earlier.

Does anyone know what about this particular find made it so illusive, and what methods were used to make the discovery.

It's actually a number of finds. Various entities have been prospecting in Afghanistan, and it's only recently that the US has put the information together. BHP and Rio Tinto, and others have been looking into the area, and at deposits in Baluchistan. Baluchistan is better known, because that was more accessible. However, Baluchistan have proved problematic since there are groups who are trying to push greater autonomy from the rest of Pakistan.

 

[Astronuc]

Petraeus says Taliban making 'overtures' for peace
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100928/wl_afp/afghanistanunrestustalibanpetraeus

Perhaps a sign that the tide is slowly turning.

 

[mheslep]

Petraeus says Taliban making 'overtures' for peace
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100928/wl_afp/afghanistanunrestustalibanpetraeus

Perhaps a sign that the tide is slowly turning.

Hope so.

2010 US fatalities:
May: 34
June: 60
July: 65 (worst month of the Afghan conflict)
Aug: 55
Sept (as of the 27th): 37

UK (the south, Helmand province) also showing declines in fatalities, better than a correction for season suggests:
May: 8
June: 20
July: 16
Aug: 7
Sept: 6

 

[nismaratwork]

The fatality numbers are good, but I wouldn't trust peace overtures by the Taliban. In the past, the Taliban have had no qualms about doing just that to regroup, only to resume fighting after a little rest.

 

[vici10]

There was an interesting article today in New York Times about role of mercenaries in the wars in Iraq and Afganistan. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/world/middleeast/24contractors.html?_r=1&ref=world"
There are more private armies (corporations) in Iraq and Afganistan than actual military.

Contractors make up 54% of DOD’s workforce in Iraq and Afghanistan.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R40764.pdf"

I suppose if they are there, these corporations are making good money on these wars, despite being very inefficient.

Even now — with many contractors discredited for unjustified shootings and a lack of accountability amply described in the documents — the military cannot do without them. There are more contractors over all than actual members of the military serving in the worsening war in Afghanistan.

The archive, which describes many episodes never made public in such detail, shows the multitude of shortcomings with this new system: how a failure to coordinate among contractors, coalition forces and Iraqi troops, as well as a failure to enforce rules of engagement that bind the military, endangered civilians as well as the contractors themselves. The military was often outright hostile to contractors, for being amateurish, overpaid and, often, trigger-happy.

Contractors often shot with little discrimination — and few if any consequences — at unarmed Iraqi civilians, Iraqi security forces, American troops and even other contractors, stirring public outrage and undermining much of what the coalition forces were sent to accomplish.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/world/middleeast/24contractors.html?_r=1&ref=world"

 

[Galteeth]

Petraeus says Taliban making 'overtures' for peace
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100928/wl_afp/afghanistanunrestustalibanpetraeus

Perhaps a sign that the tide is slowly turning.

I don't know how I feel about this. As a strong non-interventionist, I believe the US should have been out of there yesterday. However, I feel like signing a treaty with the Taliban grants them an air of legitimacy that they don't deserve. I would be curious about what kind of concessions the US could possibly make that would appease them (or at least some of them, obviously there is a faction that doesn't understand "peace")