Space Stuff and Launch Info

[Stavros Kiri]

Galaxy with no Dark Matter?
https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...o-will-discover-it-first.917387/#post-5970577

 

[mfb]

TESS will be launched on Wednesday 22:51 UTC (time zone reference: this post was made Tuesday 01:25 UTC).
Originally it was planned for Monday, but an issue with the guidance system delayed it for two days.

It is the successor to the Kepler mission. It is expected to find more than 20,000 planets (as comparison: we currently know about 3800) - most of them much larger than Earth, but 500-2000 should be roughly Earth-sized, many of them in the habitable zone around their star. TESS targets bright stars, which means they will all be accessible to follow-up observations with other telescopes to confirm their existence, to measure their mass, to look for atmospheres and so on.

The Falcon 9 rocket launch of the satellite could be interesting as well. Apart from the usual livestream (including landing the first stage on the barge) Elon Musk tweeted "SpaceX will try to bring rocket upper stage back from orbital velocity using a giant party balloon". The second stage was expected to leave Earth orbit permanently, but entering the atmosphere again is easy as well. Surviving the reentry, on the other hand...

Edit: Hans: The second stage will not be de-orbited on this mission but it will be put in a hyperbolic disposal orbit.
I guess Musk's comment applies to future missions, not TESS.
Also upcoming: Gaia's second data release (April 25). A total of 1.7 billion sources. 1.3 of them with positions, parallaxes and proper motion together with some other basic parameters. It should allow a re-calibration of the whole cosmic distance ladder, and should resolve a couple of puzzles about stellar distances.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

TESS will be launched on Wednesday 22:51 UTC

I love this photo of the TESS rockets. That fuel is beautiful!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I love this photo of the TESS rockets. That fuel is beautiful!

... as long as you're not nearby!

 

[mfb]

Blue Origin is preparing a new launch of New Shepard in a few minutes.

Livestream

New Shepard is a fully reusable suborbital rocket and the rocket (the individual object!) made several flights already. While it is planned to launch humans to space in the capsule, New Shepard is also the precursor to New Glenn, a partially reusable orbital rocket with a planned maiden flight in 2020. It will be quite similar to Falcon 9, but larger and potentially a bit cheaper.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Blue Origin

Maybe I am wrong but it seems like Blue Origin is trailing SpaceX? I find this surprising considering Bezos insane fortune.

 

[mfb]

He invests about $1 billion per year in the company. The approach is different - Blue Origin is behind but we don't know how much.
SpaceX started with a (relatively) small amount of money and no big investor backing it; they had to launch stuff to space quickly to get funding, and they still have to launch things while developing upgrades and new rockets at the same time.
Blue Origin has basically unlimited funding. They can directly develop a big, partially reusable orbital rocket, with just some tests (New Shepard) on the way. If their planned launch date of 2020 holds they will have something comparable to Falcon Heavy, just 2-3 years later.

 

[mfb]

7 minutes until the maiden flight of Falcon 9 Block 5.

Livestream

The final iteration of the rocket, made for much easier reuse. The booster is supposed to be able to fly up to 100 times, with 10-20 flights being a more typical number, and without refurbishment between flights. At least one individual booster is planned to fly 10 times until the end of next year to demonstrate this capability, and a reflight within 24 hours is planned as well. Launching a new booster will become the exception for SpaceX.

It is the first large satellite for Bangladesh.

Edit: The booster did its job, now it will land on the drone ship while the second stage proceeds to orbit. This particular booster will be taken apart to confirm in detail that taking apart Block 5 boosters is not necessary.
Edit2: The booster has landed! The second stage made it to the planned temporary orbit, in about 20 minutes it will make another burn to geostationary transfer orbit.

 

[nikkkom]

Maybe I am wrong but it seems like Blue Origin is trailing SpaceX? I find this surprising considering Bezos insane fortune.

Past worldwide experience in developing large rocket engines is that they take at least a few years to develop, no matter how large a pile of $$$ you throw at the problem.

 

[Borg]

JWST has been pushed to May 2020. Nearly one year delay, mainly due to problems with the sun shield.

XKCD

Since delays should get less likely closer to the launch, most astronomers in 2018 believed the expansion of the schedule was slowing, but by early 2020 new measurements indicated that it was actually accelerating.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Mars is redier (to us) perhaps than ever (due to the raging dust storm since May), this Summer, and increased noticably in size (due to its closest approach to earth, within this Summer [2018]), after since 2003 ...

 

[nikkkom]

JWST is a trainwreck. Just think of all the other projects which for the last decade were, and still are robbed of $$$ to cover for the ever-increasing price tag of that thing. I bet people on those other projects have "warm" feelings about JWST managerial team...

 

[mfb]

SpaceX will reuse one of their Block 5 boosters for the first time on a Falcon 9 launch Aug 7, 5:18 UTC (one day and 18 h after this post). This type flew just three times so far, the first booster has been inspected (and potentially refurbished) now and is ready to fly again. SpaceX wants to fly at least one booster a third time this year, this one is a likely candidate. Time between reuse goes down over time as the company learns what exactly needs to be checked between flights and how to make important parts less likely to get damaged. The first few (of an older version) needed about one year, currently the time is down to 2-3 months. The ultimate goal is 24 hours, potentially in 2019. Land, refuel, launch again.
The mission will carry an Indonesian communications satellite to a transfer orbit to geostationary orbit - a routine mission in that aspect.NASA selected astronauts for the first flights of the commercial crew program. Unmanned demonstration flights are expected later this year and the first crewed flights from the US since 2011 are expected for 2019. The only country so far to give up the capability to launch humans will get crewed spacecraft again.

 

[mfb]

Launch will be in 27 minutes. Livestream here, coverage should begin in about 12 minutes.

Edit: Success! Both launch and landing.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

1.

and increased noticably in size (due to its closest approach to earth, within this Summer [2018]), after since 2003 ...

Closest approach happened on July 31. Next one in 2035 (i.e. in 17 years). In August 2003 Mars was a bit closer (2 million Km difference). [And, actually, when that last approach occurred, it was the first time in 60,000 years that Mars had come that close!] Next so close one in 2287.
Well, stick around, do some anti-aging and ... be patient! ...

In case you missed all that, there's still time to catch and see the bright and red planet, still fairly close, for a few more days ...

2. New green comet in the sky tonight (Aug. 7) etc. ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Solar probe: next "stop" Venus (for flyby gravity assist - Oct. 3). Reaches Sun: Nov. 5.
https://www.space.com/41531-parker-solar-probe-first-milestones-to-sun.html

[PF wishes Good Luck!]

 

[mfb]

Aeolus will launch on a Vega rocket in 10 hours from now (edit: 2 days 10 hours after this comment). It will be the first satellite to measure wind in three dimensions on a global scale, which should improve weather models for forecasts.
I'm not sure if there will be a livestream, this page doesn't mention anything. This youtube channel had a stream for the last Vega launch. Will be a routine launch of Vega - 12th mission in total after 11 successes.

Meanwhile SpaceX is working on the crew access arm to let astronauts board Dragon 2 in April 2019. There was a lot of discussion about the fueling procedure. SpaceX prefers to load fuel as late as possible (with astronauts on board) as this allows supercooling it - increasing rocket performance. NASA usually prefers loading fuel first and letting the astronauts enter later. NASA is now fine with the approach of SpaceX given nothing goes wrong with the next missions (especially the uncrewed demonstration mission in November and the in-flight abort in March).

Edit: https://i.redd.it/ezsmiapvbah11.jpg. Looks strange to see such a modern style arm at the old support tower.
Edit2: Arm has been installed

Edit3: Aeolus delayed due to wind (!). Now Aug 22, 21:20 GMT

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Found this intetesting:
Japanese Space-Elevator Experiment Launching to Space Station Next Week (Really!)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Green comet visible with binos ... :

How to See the Bright Green Comet 21P in Binoculars on Monday
https://www.space.com/41765-green-comet-21p-binoculars-best-visibility.html

 

[davenn]

Green comet visible with binos ... :

How to See the Bright Green Comet 21P in Binoculars on Monday
https://www.space.com/41765-green-comet-21p-binoculars-best-visibility.html

A few of my friends in my astronomy facebook group have been photographing it over recent weeks

they have been getting good resultsDave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A few of my friends in my astronomy facebook group have been photographing it over recent weeks

they have been getting good resultsDave

Are the photos viewable for everybody?

I tried observing it last night [with binos 12×30] but in the wrong coordinates (I was sleepy at the time - I barely just saw the Orion nebula instead ... etc.). I will retry tonight with 80×120 (just bought them), as it's getting dimmer as days go by ...

 

[davenn]

Are the photos viewable for everybody?

search for Astronomy and Astrophotography

feel free to join

 

[Stavros Kiri]

search for Astronomy and Astrophotography

feel free to join

I will search but I do not have fb acc. We'll see. Thanks Dave

 

[mfb]

Saturday (12:46–15:20 UTC, 5:46-8:20 West Coast time) the last Delta II ever will launch from Vandenberg, California. Sunrise is 6:44, if it launches early in the launch window it could be a spectacular view. I don't see a livestream yet, spaceflightnow will probably link to one. Here is a countdown.
Over its lifetime it launched many important missions, including the Kepler spacecraft , WMAP, Dawn, several missions to Mars (including Spirit and Opportunity) and the initial Iridium constellation (where the Iridium flares come from).

If successful, it will complete a streak of 100 mission successes. Overall Delta II has launched 154 times with 152 successes, one partial failure and one failure. That failure was quite spectacular, however.
As comparison: Atlas V has a streak of 68 successes, Ariane 5 had a streak of 82 until its partial failure earlier this year (the satellites were placed in an incorrect orbit but they can reach their target orbit on their own).

Overall this year was exceptionally good in spaceflight so far - 69 launches and no launch failure, just the one partial failure. Well, and Zuma failed to stay in orbit, but it was launched to orbit successfully.

 

[mfb]

This just happened...:

SpaceX has signed the world’s first private passenger to fly around the Moon aboard our BFR launch vehicle—an important step toward enabling access for everyday people who dream of traveling to space. Find out who’s flying and why on Monday, September 17.

Full resolution image

Livestream (in 3 days)

In 2017 SpaceX announced that two unnamed tourists were interested in a Dragon 2 mission around the Moon. That was canceled earlier this year - it would need Falcon Heavy but SpaceX decided to not human-rate that rocket. It looks like this mission will be the replacement - later (probably not before 2022) but with a much larger spacecraft . And this time we'll learn who is flying.

The image is interesting as well. Compared to previous renderings it shows some significant changes. The two delta wings got replaced by three backwards-pointing wings which also seem to house the landing legs now. It looks like two of them can move to steer the spacecraft . It now has 7 identical looking engines instead of a mixture of sea-level-optimized and vacuum-optimized engines. Something got added outside at the nose. Assuming this is an accurate rendering of their current design we'll probably learn more about it on Monday.

 

[mfb]

Livestream (in 3 days)

Starting now, or at least should start now. I'll keep this post updated.

xx:08: Livestream now showing something. SpaceX factory, BFR sketch on the wall next to people and Falcon 9 stages. It is big. Some renders of the rocket we saw already, some new.
:14: Musk starts his talk. The usual talk about becoming a multiplanetary species, about being excited for the future and so on. History of SpaceX (first orbital flight of the company 10 years ago, largest operational rocket today, reflight of boosters and Dragon).
:22: Finally getting to BFR. 118 m long, a bit more than 100 tonnes to LEO. Upper stage 55 m long, more than 1000 m³ pressurized volume (more than the ISS!).
Two flaps at the front and two wings at the rear can both change their angle.
Some cargo storage near the engines (close to the surface).
Third "wing" is just a leg.
BFR will fall body first most of the time in an atmosphere, unlike Falcon 9 first stages which always fall engines-first.
From the video later: Solar panels will span between the wings.

Construction status:
First cylinder section of the spacecraft completed.
Full-scale raptor engine built, test fired.

Funding BFR:
Launching satellites, servicing ISS (also with Dragon), Starlink (SpaceX satellite internet constellation), private customers for BFR

Lunar mission: Free-return mission, 4-5 days.
Tourist: Yusaku Maezawa, billionaire from his companies.
Now speaking about ... himself. And his companies.

Bought the full BFR flight and wants to share it with 6-8 artists to inspire their art to promote world peace. Project "Dear Moon". Not decided yet which artists. Painters, musicians, sculpture designers, fashion designers, ... will invite them.
Target date: 2023
https://dearmoon.earth after the press conferencexx:50: Q&A session (paraphrased):

Q: We saw multiple iterations, is this final?
A: We probably see the final iteration in terms of architecture (third one SpaceX showed). "Tintin rocket design"
First hops next year, then high altitude/velocity flights in 2020 and first booster tests. First orbital flight "in 2-3 years" if things go well. Many test flights (easy with a reusable system!) before the paid flight.

Q: "Why is the first passenger Japanese?"
A: (Effectively:) Because he was the first one to ask and because he paid a lot of money (undisclosed amount). Musk calls it a "material impact to the BFR development cost" later, could be something like $500 M or more (net worth of the passenger is $3.6B).

Q: What happened to the people who wanted to go on FH/Dragon?
A: Same person. Back then he wanted to take only one other passenger as Dragon 2 is quite small. Repeated mentions from Musk that the mission will be dangerous.

Q: Where will BFR launch/land initially?
A: Brownsville in Texas for initial hops. Not yet decided for orbital flights, could be a floating platform.

Q: Interior?
A: Depends on the mission. Life support will be somewhat derived from Dragon 2, but hopefully with more recycling of gases. [Looks like development is still in early stages.]

Q: Training necessary for the flight?
A from passenger: Not decided yet

Q: Fraction of effort of SpaceX going towards BFR/Lunar mission?
A: <5% on BFR currently, will change a lot. Top priority is crewed missions for NASA.
Dragon 2 test flight in December (was previously announced for November).

Q: Why this flight?
A from passenger: I like art, want to see what the artists made out of flight.

Q: Development cost of BFR "to make that trip"?
A: ~5B for BFR in total

Q: Development cost of BFR?
A: That's what I just said. Probably $5B. In the range of $2B to $10B.

Q: Lunar landing? Billionaire friends funding development?
A: Base on the Moon would be great. Reiterates that powered landing is the only viable option for the scope of BFR.

Q: Boeing claims to get to Mars first.
A: Go for it! Competition is a good thing.

Q: Ramp-up speed?
A: Will ramp up BFR efforts once crewed missions and maybe Starlink launches work.

Q: Changed engine configuration?
A: Common engines between booster and ship. Sort of sea-level optimized. Vacuum version as potential future upgrade. 100 tonnes with the current engines, vacuum engines would increase this notably. Two-engine out capability (can still fly if any two engines fail).

Q: Artist selection process?
A from passenger: I'll ask them.

Q: Did passenger contribute more than 5% of development cost?
A: "It is a material percentage."

Q: Flight profile for lunar mission? Maximum g, distance to Moon?
A: Exact mission profile still to be decided. Getting very close to Moon would be interesting. <3 g for ascent in this case as the payload is so light, normally more like 5 g. ~6 g re-entry for direct entry or ~3 g for aerocapture and then landing.

Q (to Musk): Do you want to go to space yourself?
A: He is not sure how/when. He might even fly with the passenger. Previously he said "I want to die on Mars, just not on impact" so generally he clearly wants to go to space at some point.

Livestream ended after 1.5 hours.

Post-livestream: The mission profile doesn't have any plans or time for refueling. I guess they make the interior very light so they can directly go to the Moon.

Video of the livestream

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

SpaceX readying for Sunday night launch, with a historic West Coast landing
https://arstechnica.com/science/201...e-a-historic-west-coast-landing-sunday-night/

Just hearing now it was successful!

 

[mfb]

Second time a Block 5 booster was reused. It was a launch shortly after sunset which means the rocket flew into sunlight as it went up, expect a couple of nice videos to appear in the next days.

Edit: picture 1, picture 2, picture 3

Long-term exposure:
Main mission: Launch in bright yellow (first stage) and blue (second stage exhaust gases illuminated by the Sun) going to the left.
First stage after separation: Boostback burn of the first stage to get back to the launch site (diffuse blue cloud), exhaust from the reaction control system (small clouds on the way upwards), re-entry burn (isolated yellow line) and landing burn (close to the ground, a bit to the right of the launch track).

Another long-term exposure with a slightly different view.

Video

 

[OmCheeto]

SpaceX readying for Sunday night launch, with a historic West Coast landing
https://arstechnica.com/science/201...e-a-historic-west-coast-landing-sunday-night/

Just hearing now it was successful!

I watched it live! I probably shouldn't do that, as I'm a bit of a nervous nelly, and am always biting my fingers.

One interesting thing I found out, due to my suspicion that the launch was timed to coincide with the position of the sun, was that the craft would have to be at an elevation of 78 km to be illuminated.
I found a re-run of the launch and found that 1st stage separation occurred at 78 km! I'm guessing that's why the vapor trails had such interesting colors.

The lower portion being "sunset red".

I also found about a bazillion youtube videos posted of the launch almost immediately.
One was from Phoenix Arizona, 800 km away!

Elon Musk liked the following photo:

Long exposure. Launch to landing. Image credit: TomCross, @_TomCross_, Rocket photographer for @Teslarati

 

[mfb]

I made a separate thread for the Soyuz launch failure.

 

[mfb]

BepiColombo blasts off to investigate Mercury's mysteries
First Mercury fly-by will be 2nd October 2021, orbit insertion will be in December 2025.
It will be the second spacecraft to orbit Mercury after MESSENGER (launched 2004, in orbit 2011-2015).

 

[mfb]

November will be very busy in spaceflight. One launch happened already, 13-14 more are scheduled. If there are no delays this will bring the total launches this year to 100-101. Even without December this is a level last reached during the Soviet era. The all-time record was 1967 with 139 launches - although just 120 of them were successful.

Electron will make its third flight between Nov 11 and Nov 20, carrying a few small Earth observation satellites (assuming no more delays - the mission has been shifted multiple times). It is considered the first operational mission after one failed and one successful test flight.

Soyuz-FG, the same rocket type that had a launch failure with crew a month ago, will fly again Nov 16 - an uncrewed supply mission for the ISS.

A Falcon 9 launch is planned for November 19 - this will be the first time a booster is used for a third flight, its previous launches were in May and in August. The mission will launch about 90 small satellites to low Earth orbit.
Together with another launch on Nov 14 SpaceX will also break their record for launches in a year - last year they launched 18 rockets, this year they launched 17 so far.December has many launches as well - 12 with a launch date, potentially a few more.

The Soyuz MS-11 mission will bring three astronauts to the ISS Dec 3.

China will attempt the first soft landing on the far side of the Moon after a launch Dec 8 (Chang'e 4).

The first third-generation GPS satellite (GPS IIIA-01) will be launched on a Falcon 9 on Dec 15.
Together with one ISS resupply mission (Dec 4) and the final launch for the Iridium constellation (Dec 30) SpaceX plans to end the year with 22 launches.

Another Electron launch is planned for December, carrying various experimental satellites.Other events:

Parker Solar Probe became the fastest man-made spacecraft at more than 70 km/s relative to the Sun (perihelion will be Nov 5).

InSight will land on Mars Nov 26

OSIRIS-REx will arrive at asteroid Bennu Dec 3.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SpaceX's 'Starman' and Its Tesla Roadster Are Now Beyond Mars
https://www.space.com/42337-spacex-tesla-roadster-starman-beyond-mars.html?
(mfb should be proud of his avatar)

 

[mfb]

Electron will make its third flight between Nov 11 and Nov 20, carrying a few small Earth observation satellites (assuming no more delays - the mission has been shifted multiple times). It is considered the first operational mission after one failed and one successful test flight.

Soyuz-FG, the same rocket type that had a launch failure with crew a month ago, will fly again Nov 16 - an uncrewed supply mission for the ISS.

Both successful. News about Soyuz launch
Gives some more confidence for the crewed flight (Dec 3).

SpaceX matched their previous record of 18 flights in a year, but the more interesting launch will be the Small Satellite Express mission where a booster will do its third flight (Nov 19, 18:32 UTC, 13:32 EST, 10:32 PST).
Despite introducing a new booster version more than half of all flights this year were done with reused boosters (10 reused vs. 7 new for Falcon 9, plus the FH flight with one new core and two reused side boosters). At least two of the remaining four missions will also reuse boosters, while at least one will use a new booster.

 

[DennisN]

Gosh, this is a cool clip :
"Timelapse of the Russian Progress MS-10 cargo spacecraft launched on 16 November 2018 at 18:14 GMT from Baikonur cosmodrome, Kazakhstan, taken by ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst from the International Space Station." (ESA)
Source: European Space Agency (ESA) on youtube