Space Stuff and Launch Info

[jackwhirl]

Starlink 5's launch and deployment looked good, but they missed the landing. [at about 23:30]
I remember hearing they come down aimed away from the drone ship, and correct very late in the landing, if the computer determines it is safe. I wonder where things went wrong for this one.

 

[mfb]

It landed softly next to the drone ship. That happens if the booster determines that a landing on the ship is not safe enough. They might be able to reuse some parts of it like the grid fins, although salt water is really bad for many components.
Starlink launches are the heaviest payloads SpaceX has launched so far, so their landings are always with a very narrow margin. This particular booster has flown 4 times now.

 

[jackwhirl]

I'm loving the look of SN1, compared to Mk1. There's a side-by-side about halfway down this article. I continue to be amazed by SpaceX's ability to rapidly iterate.

 

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They are really quick with assembly. Here is a diagram. Basically every day a new component is prepared, two components were put together, or similar updates. The 6 missing rings are expected to be ready as well, just not stacked and clearly associated with SN1 yet.

 

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Starlink tracking

- nearly all v0.9 development version satellites lowered their orbit and then stopped. It is speculated that this is done to move to a different orbital plane (precession rates depend on altitude), but it's unclear which plane would be targeted why. The first satellite re-entered the atmosphere (orange).
- V1.0 L1 (first launch of 1.0, from November) largely follows the planned pattern: Raise them in 3 groups of 20 to reach 3 orbital planes, using precession to change planes without fuel. A few outliers are treated separately.
- V1.0 L2 is very clean. 20 satellites just arrived at 550 km. 39 satellites are waiting at 350 km, the next 19-20 of them should start raising their orbit in a bit over a week. One satellite was a bit late and might need a special treatment while one satellite is on the way to be deorbited.
- V1.0 L3 is more chaotic, although the steep lines are tracking errors not actual satellite motion. Keeping satellites lower means they reach their target orbital plane faster, this could be an approach to speed up the deployment sequence (which otherwise needs 4 months after launch, see L1).
- V1.0 L4 is not shown here, they should all be on the way to 350 km.

With 20 degrees between orbital planes SpaceX needs 18 batches of 20 satellites each for the first phase of the network (18*20=360). That means at least two more launches if the 0.9 satellites don't contribute. Add four month until all the satellites are at their target orbit. It is possible that they reach their goal faster if the first or second batch of additional launches fill in the gaps quicker. This summer or early autumn they should have the satellites for non-stop internet connections in some latitude range.

The next launch is planned for March 4, just 16 days after the last one.

Simorgh, Iran's attempt to scale up their rocket systems, is being prepared for a launch in the first half of February. After a successful suborbital test the rocket had two launch failures, the next flight could be the first one that reaches orbit. Payload capacity is still relatively low with 350 kg.

Launch failure.
Maiden flights for Astra and Kuaizhou 11 are planned for February 25. LauncherOne was delayed and doesn't have a specific date now.

 

[mfb]

Maiden flights for Astra and Kuaizhou 11 are planned for February 25. LauncherOne was delayed and doesn't have a specific date now.

Delays and more delays. Instead of four we are still at zero. Simorgh failed again (0/3 for orbital flights). Astra might still make it this month. Kuaizhou 11 and LauncherOne are completely unclear.
In March yet another Chinese spaceflight startup plans its maiden flight: Ceres-1 from Galactic Energy.

Anyway:
A spacecraft from Northrop Grumman docked with a satellite in geostationary orbit. A satellite that doesn't have any docking mechanism - they just grabbed its engine (animation). The new satellite now takes over orbital maneuvers and extends the life of the old satellite that ran out of fuel.

 

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The last Dragon 1 will launch in 15 minutes. On board: Guatemala's first satellite.
After that only Dragon 2 will fly, in separate Crew and Cargo versions.

Next Starlink launch is planned in one week, viewing conditions are still unclear.

Edit: Launched. If the booster lands successfully it will be the 50th time SpaceX lands a booster.
Edit: Successful landing! And Dragon is in orbit.

 

[mfb]

Next Starlink launch is planned in one week, viewing conditions are still unclear.

It will launch 18:30 EDT, 22:30 GMT, in 2.5 hours. Around sunset in Florida, so viewing conditions for the US and maybe Europe look promising. These dense satellite trains are a really interesting view.

It is the first time SpaceX uses a booster for a fifth flight (after three commercial flights and an earlier Starlink launch).
The payload fairing is reused as well, it's only the second time SpaceX does this.

What is new about this rocket:
- the second stage (<1/4 of the cost of a new rocket)
- the satellites (cheaper than the flight according to SpaceX)
- the fuel (negligible cost)

Live coverage and stream
Visibility predictions

 

[anorlunda]

It will launch 18:30 EDT, 22:30 GMT, in 2.5 hours

No, launch is set for 9:22 EDT, 13:22 UTC about 30 minutes from now.

 

[mfb]

Huh... got some time zones wrong. Anyway, scrubbed because of some issues with the engines (countdown stopped at 0 seconds). Next try tomorrow (probably), approximately the same time.

 

[mfb]

Success, but not without trouble.

One of the engines stopped late in the first stage burn. The second stage had enough margin to deliver the satellites to their target orbit, but it made the first stage fail to land.
This was the second engine failure in flight of any Falcon rocket, the first one was in 2012 in one of the earliest flights. It's likely that the failure was linked to the age of the engine (fifth flight), SpaceX will have to see what exactly went wrong and improve that for future flights. All fourth/fifth flights of boosters were SpaceX internal missions because SpaceX wants to gain experience with these first.
On the positive side, it was another demonstration that a failing engine doesn't ruin the mission.

You can see if the satellites are visible from your place here: https://james.darpinian.com/satellites/

 

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https://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/starship_users_guide_v1.pdf
SpaceX is confident that their design won't change much any more, so they published estimates for the environment payloads will have in Starship.

 

[trurle]

Delays and more delays. Instead of four we are still at zero. Simorgh failed again (0/3 for orbital flights). Astra might still make it this month. Kuaizhou 11 and LauncherOne are completely unclear.
In March yet another Chinese spaceflight startup plans its maiden flight: Ceres-1 from Galactic Energy.

See
https://arstechnica.com/science/202...sa-suspends-sls-work-astra-suffers-a-setback/

LauncherOne have completed taxi test in March 2020, but captive ferry test is not scheduled. No schedule for orbital flight too.

 

[mfb]

NASA got four offers for commercial resupply missions of its planned Lunar Gateway.

• Boeing
• Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems (NGIS)
• Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC)
• SpaceX

They selected SpaceX (flying "Dragon XL", a modified Dragon capsule, on Falcon Heavy) as only winner for now, other companies can bid again for future contracts. We now have a (slightly redacted) document discussing this decision.

Key points:

• Boeing's proposal was both the most expensive and the least favorable from a technical side. In addition its pricing proposal was in conflict with NASA requirements. It was kicked out of the competition early (page 15).
• The proposals of NGIS and SNC were reviewed favorably. Both come with weaknesses but NASA is quite confident they could satisfy the requirements. NGIS has an advantage from flying cargo to the ISS with Cygnus, but SNC is a bit cheaper (and is working on cargo delivery to the ISS, too).
• The proposal by SpaceX is not just by far the cheapest (no surprise here), it also offers by far the largest payload and volume and got the best review from the technical side. To me the description looks like they basically proposed a space station module that also happens to deliver cargo. The document discusses using Dragon XL for "other crew activities like exercise, or science experimentation" on page 19.

There is an interesting oversight in the redaction on page 17: The "fairing impingement issue" mentioned in the second paragraph is the heavily redacted significant weakness discussed in the paragraph before. Cygnus could hit the interior of the fairing during launch, damaging the spacecraft or the fairing.

 

[jackwhirl]

You can see if the satellites are visible from your place here: https://james.darpinian.com/satellites/

Thank you for this link. I was able to see the ISS recently. Very cool.

 

[Baluncore]

Thank you for this link. I was able to see the ISS recently. Very cool.

I use this site that gives forward predictions for ISS, many satellites, Starlink launches and astronomical events.
https://www.heavens-above.com/

 

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The next Starlink launch is planned for April 23, 2020, 19:16 UTC. This is the last launch necessary for an initial constellation that can provide continuous internet access in some latitude ranges. The satellites will need ~3-4 months of orbit raising, however. Additional launches could shorten this time.

The crewed demo flight of Dragon 2 is still planned for the second half of May. The first orbital launch of astronauts from the US since 2011.

Overall launch activity has gone down notably.
On April 24 China will launch a new crewed spacecraft (without crew) that doesn't have a name yet.
ISS resupply missions still fly.

 

[jackwhirl]

The next Starlink launch is planned for April 23, 2020, 19:16 UTC.

Bumped up to today, weather permitting. Edit: Launch, booster landing, and Satellite deployment were all successful.

 

[jackwhirl]

Here's a report that the Falcon 9's March 18th engine out was due to cleaning solvent (isopropyl alcohol) that got into a sensor.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/22/s...sed-by-cleaning-fluid-according-to-elon-musk/
The tweet:

 

[Jonathan Scott]

Just saw the latest Starlink launch go over here in the UK a couple of minutes after deployment. Naked eye it looked like one bright point, but in binoculars there were a few pinpricks and a bright line of very close dots.

 

[mfb]

Concerning Starlink: SpaceX expects a private beta in 3 months (that's how long the satellites need to get to their target orbits) and a public beta in about 6 months.
Tweet

 

[anorlunda]

Concerning Starlink: SpaceX expects a private beta in 3 months (that's how long the satellites need to get to their target orbits) and a public beta in about 6 months.
Tweet

Are there any published reports about what the retail fee for Starlink service will be?

 

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No announcement, apart from the statement that they will beat the current "crappy internet for $80/month" other satellite internet providers offer. It is speculated that they want to offer better internet access for a similar price. Add a low three-digit value for the customer terminal. This article thinks $80/month plus $100-300 one-time cost are realistic.

 

[mfb]

If you are interested in seeing Starlink satellite trains, watch for them soon, because they become dimmer over time. SpaceX reports about three more methods to reduce their brightness.

- an experimental sun shade
- reducing the reflection of the antennas for operational satellites (they are already quite dim there, will likely become completely invisible to the naked eye)
- changing the orientation to reduce visibility during orbit raising

The goal of @SpaceX is to make Starlink satellites "invisible to the naked eye within a week of launch"

 

[jackwhirl]

If you are interested in seeing Starlink satellite trains, watch for them soon, because they become dimmer over time.

I did manage to see them a few days after the launch. It was a cloudy day, but the sky cleared early in the evening. It was almost 10pm, iirc, and they didn't pass far over my house before disappearing from view. I think I got lucky, because I'm pretty sure they were passing into Earth's shadow, where they are not visible. Very cool sight.

 

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As an update to my previous post: https://www.spacex.com/news/2020/04/28/starlink-update - including many details what makes the satellites appear bright when and so on.

As new item:
NASA Selects Blue Origin, Dynetics, SpaceX for Artemis Human Landers (NASA)
NASA awards lunar lander contracts to Blue Origin, Dynetics—and Starship (Ars Technica)
It is initial funding for R&D for about a year.
$579 million to a proposal lead by Blue Origin
$253 million to a Dynetics-led team
$135 million to SpaceX for Starship
Boeing submitted a bid but was not selected.
In a year NASA will evaluate the progress and then decide how many proposals to fund in the future.

We see that pattern again. Boeing isn't selected and SpaceX is by far the cheapest despite aiming at the largest spacecraft (size comparison). But keep in mind that this is R&D money, not mission cost: Blue Origin and Dynetics wouldn't develop their proposals without NASA funding, while SpaceX develops Starship anyway - they just get a bit extra funding now.

Note that this Starship gets some modifications as it will only transport crew between the Gateway and the Moon and will never enter Earth's atmosphere: The fins are gone. It has separate engines for landing higher up, which mitigate concerns what the Raptor exhaust does with Lunar regolith. The big window is gone. Heat shielding isn't an issue. All these lower the risk for NASA. This is the first time NASA considers Starship for anything.

 

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After 9 years the US gets crewed spaceflight again. Dragon 2 will fly Douglas Hurley and Bob Behnken to the ISS May 27, 20:33 UTC. It will be the first time a private company launches humans to orbit.

The next Starlink launch is planned for Sunday, May 17, 7:53 UTC. This is just a bit before sunrise at the launch site, it could mean excellent viewing conditions from large parts of the US in the hours after the launch (where the satellites are all close together). A direct view of the launch from parts of the east coast, and the satellites ~90/180/270/360 minutes later for people farther west. The outlook for Europe is worse, too far north, but there might be viewing options 1-2 weeks later.

 

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Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon are vertical on the launch pad
5 more days until crewed spaceflight is no longer exclusive to government agencies.

* Static fire (test of the rocket) on Friday, 22
* Dress rehearsal with the astronauts on Saturday, 23. After that the rocket returns to the hangar for payloads that need to be loaded shortly before launch (like fresh food)
* Launch on Wednesday, 27 at 20:33 UTC (4:33 PM EDT) with Saturday, 30 as backup date
* Docking with the ISS about a day later

 

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Failure of Launcher One's maiden flight: Spaceflight Now, BBC. The carrier aircraft is fine, but the rocket exploded a few seconds after ignition.Dragon 2 passed the static fire, the launch readiness review, and a dress rehearsal. Weather forecast is not looking good, but if it gets better: 45.5 hours to launch. Otherwise add three days.

 

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Another Starlink launch is coming up: 01:25 GMT, in a bit over 5 hours. Looks like the northern hemisphere will get great viewing conditions in the evening (local weather permitting) and possibly in the morning as well. In Europe it might be visible just after launch. This website has predictions.
Live coverage (60% chance that the weather is good for the launch)

Edit: Success.

SpaceX has permission to reuse boosters and Dragon capsules for crewed flights

 

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Another Starlink launch June 12, just 8 days after the previous. From the same pad, a record turnaround time (planned).
And then another one June 24 (different pad).
Viewing conditions are unclear until we have better launch time estimates.
There might be yet another Falcon 9 launch June 30, a GPS satellite. If they all happen then SpaceX will have launched 4 rockets and over 180 spacecraft in June, and 5 rockets in 5 weeks (with the crewed flight and the previous Starlink launch).

Here is an animation of Starlink satellite orbits. The reference frame has operational satellites stay in place where horizontal lines are satellites following each other in the orbit. Satellites are launched to lower orbits where they orbit faster -> move to the right. They also precess at a different rate, which makes them move up slowly in the diagram. As they raise their orbit they become stationary in both axes, and clever timing of the process makes them arrive at just the right spot. Each launch ends up with three groups of 20 satellites after ~4 months. The goal is a uniform grid for early operation, later launches will then add more and more horizontal lines in between to increase bandwidth. From August on we can expect non-stop service in some latitude ranges, around that time a private beta test should begin.

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After its July 2019 launch failure, Vega will return back to flight June 19, launching 50 smaller spacecraft .

In July we'll see three missions flying to Mars:
The US plans to launch its rover Perseverance with its small helicopter, now called Ingenuity
China plans to launch Tianwen-1, a rover and an orbiter.
The UAE plans to launch Hope, a Mars orbiter.

 

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Rocketlab's launch attempt for "Don't stop me now" was cancelled due to bad weather. Next attempt tomorrow, with the same name.

 

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An Electron launch failed during the second stage burn. The reason is not clear (or public) yet.
Video - at 5:40 into the flight, shortly before they discard empty batteries, the velocity suddenly stops increasing (22:10 video timestamp)
News

It's interesting to see how different companies handle this in their livestreams. It was immediately obvious that something went wrong with the propulsion, but the guy in the livestream just talked about problems with the video stream. Not as bad as the reporting during the Vega failure, at least, where they kept reading milestones that were obviously wrong based on telemetry.

 

[trurle]

An Electron launch failed during the second stage burn. The reason is not clear (or public) yet.
Video - at 5:40 into the flight, shortly before they discard empty batteries, the velocity suddenly stops increasing (22:10 video timestamp)
News

It's interesting to see how different companies handle this in their livestreams. It was immediately obvious that something went wrong with the propulsion, but the guy in the livestream just talked about problems with the video stream. Not as bad as the reporting during the Vega failure, at least, where they kept reading milestones that were obviously wrong based on telemetry.

On the video shortly before 1st stage separation, the outer skin of interstage or 1st stage is buckling. The buckling was not visible on launch 13 june 2020. Seems the 1st stage was damaged yet burned properly. 2nd stage may had damage too. Handling issues or in-flight overstressed?

 

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RocketLab says the first stage flight was without problem, maybe it was just some logo or other uncritical part that peeled off.
Statement by CEO Peter Beck

Edit: Here is an acceleration plot. The final stop is the most notable but thrust went down before.