Space Stuff and Launch Info

[Klystron]

Human error blamed for Vega launch failure
That's not just human error, that's a quality control failure, too.
[...]

Concur. Yet, given the two failed launches with sensitive payloads, one is curious if and how intentional sabotage; such as deliberately inverting the actuator arms, can be eliminated as the failure source instead of human error.

Carefully vetted personnel with current security checks, omnipresent video cameras in build and maintenance areas, rigorous cross-checked configuration management and pre-launch quality control procedures provide a basis for integrity. Trust and loyalty certainly counted during my tenure as a NASA contract engineer, but how do these failure investigations eliminate sabotage or malice?

 

[mfb]

Two rocket recovery news!

Electron's booster survived re-entry, deployed its parachutes, and landed softly in the ocean. Recovery via ship is ongoing, pictures will follow. Future missions might be caught with a helicopter.
TweetThe Falcon 9 booster that launched Crew-1 encountered rough seas and barely managed to stay on the barge.

 

[nsaspook]

Human error blamed for Vega launch failure
That's not just human error, that's a quality control failure, too.
On the positive side: It's not a design problem and Vega should be able to return to flight quickly. Two more flights in early 2021 are planned before Vega-C takes over mid 2021.

If you can accidentally swap the cables and have them still fit into the wrong connectors, that IS a design error for something as important as critical thrust vector control. Different termination connectors, harness asymmetry (won't reach the incorrect component) in line/cable length, blocking pins and sockets in connectors, bright color matching codes for terminations are some of the things commonly used to prevent assembly errors.

 

[mfb]

Electron in the water:

 

[mfb]

First flight of Cargo Dragon in 5.5 hours
It's a simplified version of Crew Dragon, basically, so the mission should be uneventful.
Soon there will be two Dragon capsules docked to the ISS at the same time. Crew-1 and their Crew Dragon capsule are still there.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

First flight of Cargo Dragon in 5.5 hours

@SpaceX on Twitter:
Due to poor weather in the recovery area for today’s attempt, now targeting Sunday, December 6 at 11:17 a.m. EST for launch of CRS-21

 

[mfb]

Forgot this one: Hayabusa 2 deployed its asteroid sample over Australia.
It landed an hour ago, they located its beacon, a helicopter will now search for its exact place and pick it up.

 

[dlgoff]

I got a great view last night,here in Perry, Kansas, of the ISS fly-over. Tonight will be even better; visible for about 5 minutes and almost directly overhead.

from https://spotthestation.nasa.gov/sightings/view.cfm?country=United_States&

 

[mfb]

Did you see Dragon chasing it?
I saw that once by chance, but it's rare with the typical short approach duration.SpaceX is serious with the Starship prototype launch attempt.
Livestream starts in 14 hours
As this is a highly experimental spacecraft and flight the launch can happen at any time during the day, or it can be moved to the following day or the day afterwards.
There will be some warning time, first from filling the rocket with propellant and then on a shorter notice (10 minutes) from a siren. And SpaceX might also comment on planned launch times during the livestream.

If the flight works we'll see a spectacular landing (with the spacecraft rotating from horizontal to vertical shortly before landing), if it fails we'll get a spectacular explosion. Either way, this will be very interesting.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

CONJUNCTION OF JUPITER AND SATURN: In two weeks, Jupiter and Saturn will be so close together, some people will perceive them as a single brilliant star. It's a rare Great Conjunction, the likes of which have not been seen in hundreds of years. They are already getting closer and closer, so take a look for yourself in the early night sky, before their setting ...

The Conjunction happens right on Winter Solstice, 21 Dec., 2020. Perhaps that's a Christmas star! ...
https://www.livescience.com/jupiter-saturn-close-on-winter-solstice.html

 

[berkeman]

SpaceX is serious with the Starship prototype launch attempt.
Livestream starts in 14 hours
As this is a highly experimental spacecraft and flight the launch can happen at any time during the day, or it can be moved to the following day or the day afterwards.
There will be some warning time, first from filling the rocket with propellant and then on a shorter notice (10 minutes) from a siren. And SpaceX might also comment on planned launch times during the livestream.

 

[mfb]

They removed the strings that held the "flaps" in place and then tested moving them.

No launch time estimate from SpaceX so far. Starship is not fueled yet.
spacelaunchnow.me thinks that the launch will be 22:20 UTC, in 1.5 hours. That would be 40 minutes before the end of today's window. I don't know where they get their oddly specific time from.
Allegedly a NASA plane will be near the launch site in about an hour, possibly to take some measurements from the air?

Edit: Tanking started, estimated launch time 22:00 UTC if nothing goes wrong.

Edit2: NASA plane confirmed. Arrived on site.

Edit3: As of 22:11 fueling seems to proceed. Still 50 minutes remaining in the launch window.

 

[mfb]

SpaceX livestream is running, their countdown ends :35 or in 4 minutes.

Edit: Aborted just at ignition.
"Standing down for the day" - probably another try tomorrow.

 

[dlgoff]

Did you see Dragon chasing it?

Well, I'm not sure.

I was going outside ~every 15 minutes to view the skies starting at about 6:30 pm CST on 12/6. At about 45 minutes before seeing the station at the scheduled time at 7:07pm CST I saw what I thought was an "ordinary" satellite; but it Did follow the same path as the station. Is it possible that that was the Crew Dragon chasing the station? It appeared with the brightness of the other stars. I didn't put two and two together until you asked.

 

[mfb]

Sounds like Dragon. It's much dimmer than the ISS, of course, but still quite visible. It launched Dec 6 in the morning CST and docked a day later, so in the evening it was in a similar orbit but chasing the ISS.

 

[dlgoff]

Sounds like Dragon.

Thanks @mfb

 

[mfb]

Starship is getting fueled again.
SpaceX livestream in 20 minutes
Let's use the existing test thread for further updates.

 

[mfb]

Explosion, but on the landing pad at relatively low velocity. Overall a great test flight. Towards the end the thrust was lower than planned.

 

[berkeman]

Interesting. But the flame-out of the first engine wasn't planned, was it? Or is the plan to go from 3 engines to 2 engines to just one for landing?

 

[mfb]

The general expectation was a three-engine burn that stops at ~8 km followed by 4 km upwards coasting, but that didn't happen. Starship wouldn't have had the fuel (or the permission) to improvise, so this 3 -> 2 -> 1 engine burn all the way up to 12.5 km was planned. That way one engine was burning longer, maybe that was the idea.
During landing it looks to me like one of the engines lost thrust completely, but it's hard to see.

 

[berkeman]

That was pretty interesting watching the other 2 engines gimbal to maintain balance when the first engine shut off. It looked like they made it to the stops a couple of times before getting full balance back. Did it seem like that to you?

Also, it seemed like there was some transient fire in the engine compartment view a couple of times, but they didn't seem to result in anything catastrophic. Are those normal?

 

[mfb]

I wouldn't call it "normal" but it happened before. A bit of fire seems to be acceptable.

The fast and strong gimbaling surprised me as well but it might have some deeper purpose.

 

[Dullard]

My take (purely speculating):

Those were commanded shutdowns. How the system responds to the 'unexpected' loss of an engine was probably one of the items on the test checklist.

The fires are really just a test artifact - a 'shutting down' rocket engine needs to stay fuel-rich. If that shutdown occurs in an atmosphere containing lots of ambient oxygen (and next to a running engine), some fire is probably unavoidable.

 

[Dullard]

Quite a 'window-rattler' last night. My dog hates Eastward trajectories.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Today (Mon. Dec. 21, 2020 - Winter Solstice) is the big conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn. Don't miss it! (e.g. 45' after sunset) ... if you're not under clouds ... [It looks like a Christmas Star]
Also DO NOT miss to check out today's Google's Doodle! ... It's fun and hilarious!
https://www.google.com (for Dec. 21, 2020)

See also (today Dec. 21, or later the archive for this day):
https://spaceweather.com

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Today (Mon. Dec. 21, 2020 - Winter Solstice) is the big conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn. Don't miss it! (e.g. 45' after sunset) ... if you're not under clouds ... [It looks like a Christmas Star]
Also DO NOT miss to check out today's Google's Doodle! ... It's fun and hilarious!
https://www.google.com (for Dec. 21, 2020)

See also (today Dec. 21, or later the archive for this day):
https://spaceweather.com

Here is the time-fixed links:
1)

2)
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=21&month=12&year=2020

 

[mfb]

Rideshares are really taking off this year. Literally as well.

The spaceflight year starts January 10, with the second attempt of LauncherOne to reach orbit. On board: 10 cubesats
Just 4 days later SpaceX launches its first dedicated rideshare mission with close to 100 small satellites.
Also planned for January (but might be delayed) is the maiden flight of Firefly Alpha. On board: ~35 satellites
SpaceX has another rideshare mission planned, not earlier than February but no launch date yet.
March 20: Soyuz flying a rideshare mission with ~25 satellites
Arianespace doesn't want to be left out: A Vega mission is planned for not earlier than March, carrying several satellites (number to be determined).
Add several missions with a large spacecraft where smaller satellites are carried along.

That's just the first quarter.

 

[mfb]

Gwynne Shotwell talks about selling flight-proven rockets, Starship

Interesting insight in how SpaceX sells launches.

* You buy the service, not the rocket. Which booster to use where is up to SpaceX unless you have special requests.
* Making people accept reused boosters was easier than selling Falcon 1 and Falcon 9. At that time the company had a track record of getting things done already.
* They already sold contracts where it is up to SpaceX if they fly with Starship or Falcon 9. This is going far beyond the first point: You don't even know which rocket type you will fly with. It gives SpaceX flights for Starship while the customers can be assured they will go to space even if Starship is delayed - because Falcon 9 is available.

If you send a package from A to B you normally don't ask for a specific airplane to do the delivery either. You care about the arrival time, proper handling in between and similar, but not about the exact route. Looks like SpaceX wants to go in the same direction.

 

[Tom.G]

LIVE HOT-FIRE TEST OF ARTEMIS

Live coverage starts at 4:20p.m. US EST, Saturday, Jan. 16 on NASA tv: https://www.nasa.gov/live

See article at:
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/...-rocket-core-stage-for-artemis-moon-missions/

 

[mfb]

First flight of the New Shepard capsule that's designed to fly crew, hopefully this year: T-12 minutes + x
Livestream

 

[berkeman]

First flight of the New Shepard capsule that's designed to fly crew, hopefully this year: T-12 minutes + x
Livestream

Interesting flight; thanks for the heads-up.

That was a strange vertical oscillation in the telescopic camera's tracking of the ascending rocket. Have you seen that oscillation in previous launches? They need to fix that, IMO. It was pretty annoying. I loved the view from the plane/helicopter/drone/whatever it was as the rocket screamed past it early in the launch. Do you know what they used?

 

[mfb]

I would expect a drone but I don't know.
The tracking could get improved.

 

[mfb]

LIVE HOT-FIRE TEST OF ARTEMIS

Live coverage starts at 4:20p.m. US EST, Saturday, Jan. 16 on NASA tv: https://www.nasa.gov/live

See article at:
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/...-rocket-core-stage-for-artemis-moon-missions/

It fired for one minute out of the planned 8 minutes and then shut down unexpectedly. Based on the livestream it sounds like the problem was coming from the thrust vector control of one engine, i.e. its ability to change the direction of the exhaust to steer the rocket.
This could be anything from a minor fix not affecting the schedule to something that will need a repetition of the green run test and another year or two.

 

[mfb]

Not clear yet how NASA will proceed.

https://www.space.com/nasa-sls-megarocket-artemis-1-engine-test-fire

Repeating the static fire test would need at least a month or so. Possibly longer if things need to be repaired or exchanged. It's possible to swap engines if needed - they have several more in storage. This is probably the safest option in terms of testing that everything works, but it's also one that comes with large risks for the launch schedule.
It's possible that they move the core stage to the launch site and do a shorter static fire there.
It's possible that they are confident they can go ahead with the launch without extra tests - if (a) the cause is understood and fixed and (b) the 1 minute static fire produced enough data to be confident about an 8 minute burn. They didn't get to the thrust vectoring test, so that's one interesting dataset missing for sure.

They started stacking the solid rocket booster elements a few weeks ago. As soon as you start stacking them, the fuel inside of them slowly redistributes. NASA knows that the boosters are good for 12 months after the stacking begins - that would force a launch in 2021. It's possible that the boosters are good for longer, the 12 months were a conservative estimate - but NASA might have reasons to avoid operating solid rocket boosters outside their specifications.Edit: Success of LauncherOne at its second attempt. The first liquid-fuel air-launched rocket.

 

[mfb]

Green Run Update: Data and Inspections Indicate Core Stage in Good Condition

After analyzing initial data, the team determined that the shutdown after firing the engines for 67.2-seconds on Jan.16 was triggered by test parameters that were intentionally conservative to ensure the safety of the core stage during the test.

The engines would have kept firing during an actual launch.
It still means several test items could not be completed, so NASA considers rerunning the test. Nothing is broken at least.