Space Stuff and Launch Info

[.Scott]

Polaris Dawn crew member Sarah Gillis provides orbital violin for Rey's Theme or Rey's Theme (at about video 0:25) with planetary accompaniment.

 

[mfb]

Polaris Dawn reentry as seen from the ISS. Posted on reddit by Don Pettit, the astronaut who took the picture, as he was flying over southern Pakistan.

 

[mfb]

Static fire test of New Glenn's second stage - progress towards its first launch.

An interesting article discussing how NASA chose to fund two crew capsules in 2014: In the room where it happened: When NASA nearly gave Boeing all the crew funding

Bad weather delayed Crew-9 to September 28. Once it docks with the ISS, the Starliner crew will have their own proper seats on a vehicle again.
This will be the fourth launch ever, and the first from the US, with 50% American and 50% Russian astronauts. Nick Hague was already on one of the other three, and also launched on one of the rare Soyuz flights with two American astronauts.


There are two major interplanetary flights coming up:

* Hera, October 7: It will do a Mars fly-by in March 2025 before entering an orbit around Didymos in December 2026. It will observe the aftermath of the DART impact on Dimorphos. Two cubesats will also land on it.

* Europa Clipper, October 10: Primarily studying Jupiter's moon Europa (from 2030 on), as the name suggests: The magnetic field environment, the chemistry of the surface and gases the moon ejects, radar measurements down to the ocean, and more. With a mass of 6 tonnes it is the largest interplanetary spacecraft ever built and at $5 billion it is the third-most expensive individual spacecraft ever (after JWST and Hubble, not counting modular space stations). Only a fully expendable Falcon Heavy can launch it. SLS would have the payload capability but there are concerns about vibrations and the $2 billion cost difference. It would delay Artemis, too.

 

[mfb]

Crew-9 will launch in 2:30 (17:17 UTC), the crew is on board. NASA live coverage

The pre-launch conference has some interesting info, too.

Dragon has 4 parachutes. If one fails it's not changing the landing much. With 2 you get a rough but acceptable landing. With 1 it's survivable but you are probably not going to fly again. With 0? From now on, Dragon can use its launch escape system in that case, firing the SuperDraco thrusters to slow down. Certifying the thrusters for a landing would have delayed the program so much that SpaceX decided to use parachutes and abandon propulsive landing - but the requirements are probably lower in a scenario where the alternative is certain death. SpaceX had this emergency option for commercial customers before, but now NASA agreed to use it as well.

We got a picture of one of the backup seats for the Starliner crew. They will be removed once Crew-9 is at the ISS.

This, combined with the delay of Crew-9 and all the other Starliner-induced activities, has made Crew-8 the longest Dragon flight so far. Dragon was originally certified for 210 days, but that has been increased to 240 days. Dragon Endeavour has been in space for 208 days on this flight.

 

[Vanadium 50]

With 1 it's survivable but you are probably not going to fly again. With 0?

Reminds me of the old Bill Dana routine.

"Where will your space capsule be landing?"
"The state of Nevada"
"And if your parachute fails, what provisions have they made to break your fall?"
"The state of Nevada"

 

[mfb]

Another anomaly with a Falcon 9 upper stage, this time at the deorbit burn (after deploying Crew-9 successfully).



In July, the first burn had the engine running while oxygen leaked, the re-ignition to circularize the orbit then failed. Dragon launches only use a single engine burn to deploy the spacecraft*, so the deorbit burn was the second use of the engine as well. The specific sensor line that caused the problem in July has been removed, but it could be a similar cause.

*this is less efficient, but simplifies the launch and allows an earlier release of Dragon. This flight is a good example why SpaceX and NASA chose this profile.

 

[Flyboy]

That’s interesting that it’s on relight for both anomalies. And that it’s happening in such quick succession.

Wild speculation time: the emphasis on Starship/Superheavy is causing a brain drain on Falcon 9, doubly so with it being seen as a “mature” design. This is the most obvious manifestation of that brain drain.

I hope SpaceX is self-aware enough to recognize that and address it before the rot sets in too deeply (glares at Boeing).

 

[Astronuc]

US FAA grounds SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket after second-stage malfunction
https://www.reuters.com/technology/...et-after-second-stage-malfunction-2024-09-30/

WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration on Monday said SpaceX must investigate why the second stage of its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket malfunctioned after a NASA astronaut mission on Saturday, grounding the rocket for the third time in three months.

After SpaceX on Saturday launched two astronauts to the International Space Station for NASA, the rocket body that had boosted the crew further into space failed to properly re-light its engine for its "deorbit burn," a routine procedure that discards the booster into the ocean after completing its flight.

 

[mfb]

Live coverage of Vulcan's second launch
Just a mass demonstrator, unfortunately. They'll do some tests with the upper stage which will fly to an interplanetary orbit.

 

[mfb]

Mostly successful. It delivered the second stage to its target orbit. Something went wrong with one of the solid rocket motors, however. It started with an explosion apparently damaging or breaking the nozzle, followed by a very asymmetric pattern of the two solid rocket motors and some more debris flying off later.

1:50:26 in ULA's live coverage, this picture was taken from the NASASpaceflight coverage after launch as it has a better angle.

2:30:25: "We did however have an observation on SRB Number 1"

 

[berkeman]

the upper stage which will fly to an interplanetary orbit

Sorry, what's an interplanetary orbit?

 

[Flyboy]

Sorry, what's an interplanetary orbit?

I think the plan was originally to do a Mars launch but the payload wasn’t ready in time?

 

[mfb]

I think the plan was originally to do a Mars launch but the payload wasn’t ready in time?

Vulcan was supposed to launch Dream Chaser to low Earth orbit but they payload wasn't ready in time.
New Glenn was supposed to launch EscaPADE to Mars but the rocket wasn't ready in time (and is still not ready).

ULA just launched into a trajectory that leaves Earth. No specific target.

 

[Flyboy]

Vulcan was supposed to launch Dream Chaser to low Earth orbit but they payload wasn't ready in time.
New Glenn was supposed to launch EscaPADE to Mars but the rocket wasn't ready in time (and is still not ready).

ULA just launched into a trajectory that leaves Earth. No specific target.

Ahhhh, okay, got the BE-4 powered birds mixed up.

 

[berkeman]

Vulcan was supposed to launch Dream Chaser to low Earth orbit

New Glenn was supposed to launch EscaPADE to Mars

got the BE-4 powered birds mixed up.

You guys talk funny...

 

[mfb]

Some analysis:



The rocket adjusted its flight a lot to compensate. It altered its orientation to stay on the flight path. It kept the boosters attached a bit longer so they would drop down close to their original splashdown site. The upper stage burned longer to make up for the lost thrust.

We'll have to see if that flight was good enough to certify Vulcan for national security launches. At least the Vulcan version without solid rocket motors should be fine. Maybe they can do more tests on the ground to finish certification.


No update on Falcon 9 yet, but both Hera and Europa Clipper continue their launch preparations, so SpaceX doesn't expect a longer downtime.

 

[Flyboy]

Some analysis:



The rocket adjusted its flight a lot to compensate. It altered its orientation to stay on the flight path. It kept the boosters attached a bit longer so they would drop down close to their original splashdown site. The upper stage burned longer to make up for the lost thrust.

We'll have to see if that flight was good enough to certify Vulcan for national security launches. At least the Vulcan version without solid rocket motors should be fine. Maybe they can do more tests on the ground to finish certification.

I think this was a HUGE demonstration of how capable the core and upper stages are, that they could adapt to this scenario and not lose the vehicle.

That said, some sheer dumb luck that the nozzle coming apart didn’t hit the engines or tankage on the core. Northrup Grumman Innovation Systems has a lot of investigating to do.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Sorry, what's an interplanetary orbit?

"Interplaneyary trajectory" might be less confusing, but these are solar orbits. Solar orbits designed to approach a planet, but solar orbits nevertheless. There have only been 5 probes that left solar orbit with a possibility of a sixth in space now.

 

[mfb]

It's not approaching a planet and it's not leaving the Solar System - or at least neither one is planned. A close approach with at least one planet (most likely Earth) in the next few million years is almost guaranteed for everything launched from Earth that doesn't do maneuvers later: Its orbit is still intersecting Earth's orbit.

SpaceX has finished its investigation of the misbehaving deorbit burn. The FAA still needs to approve it, but for now they have made an exception for Hera. Its launch can go ahead. There won't be a deorbit burn as the second stage will leave Earth. We can expect a similar exception for Europa Clipper if that's still needed, but NASA might want to delay the launch a bit anyway.

 

[mfb]

Europa Clipper has been delayed by at least two days because a storm is expected to go over central Florida soon. Hera launch coverage by ESA (starting in 2 hours).

 

[.Scott]

There have only been 5 probes that left solar orbit with a possibility of a sixth in space now.

By my count, only 2. Voyager 1 and 2 have done it by exceeding solar escape velocity. None have done it by colliding with the sun.

 

[mfb]

Pioneer 10 and 11 and New Horizons are the others. For Ulysses we don't know its future trajectory as it can get close to Jupiter.

The upper stage that launched New Horizons escapes, too.

 

[mfb]

Falcon 9 can return to flight. The FAA closed all open investigations.

It's going to be a busy Sunday:

* 07:05 UTC: Crew-8 undocks from the ISS for a return on Monday
* 12:00 UTC: Fifth Starship flight (with booster catch attempt)
* 13:00 UTC: New Shepard launch (new booster+capsule)

Edit: Looks like this was delayed another day by the hurricane.
* Monday 16:06 UTC: Europa Clipper on Falcon Heavy

 

[mfb]

1/3:
Crew-8 is still at the ISS because the weather in the recovery area is bad.
New Shepard was delayed, too.
Starship launched, was fully successful, and the booster catch was incredible.

Europa Clipper launch in 1 hour

We learned that the deorbit anomaly after the Crew-9 launch was the engine burning for half a second extra.

 

[bob012345]

Good launch. In this flight the boosters were discarded to get maximum performance out of the engines but this is the sixth flight of these boosters according to the video.

 

[mfb]

They flew on more than half of all Falcon Heavy missions (6/11), including Psyche a year ago.
At the moment there is just a single Falcon Heavy mission scheduled for 2025, Griffin Mission 1 in September, although military satellites might be added on short notice. There should be more flights in 2026 again.

Still waiting for good weather to land Crew-8, and waiting for Blue Origin to resolve some GPS issue on New Shepard.

In the meantime SpaceX has launched two Starlink missions. They launched 4 rockets from 4 launch pads within 48 hours and recovered 3 boosters (1*Starship, 2*Falcon 9).

 

[mfb]

6th flight of Starship on November 18. This is just 5 weeks after the previous launch.

The flight profile will be the same as for the fifth flight, but with an added ship engine relight attempt in space. The reentry will be a bit steeper to push the heat shield closer to its limits. Ideally not beyond that. And of course there will be hundreds of smaller improvements to various components and procedures.

The launch window is in the afternoon this time, so reentry over the Indian Ocean will be in daylight.

Flight 7 will be the first flight of "v2". If the relight test of flight 6 is successful, it's possible this one will enter a proper orbit and then de-orbit later. It might even deploy a Starlink satellite prototype (SpaceX is building a larger version for Starship). Don't expect that within 5 weeks, however - larger changes need more time and new FAA approvals, too.

SpaceX video of flight 5.

Edit: Delayed to November 19. Same thing a day later.

 

[mfb]

Starship flight 6 in about 5 hours.

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-6

Other coverage:
NASASpaceflight:
Spaceflight Now:

 

[mfb]

A communication problem with the launch tower stopped a second catch attempt, the booster made a soft splashdown in the ocean instead.

The ship flight worked well. The Raptor re-light in space was a success, enabling future missions to stay in orbit for longer. Despite using an older heat shield, removing over 2000 tiles and weakening some areas deliberately, the ship landed safely on target in the ocean. One area of one flap got pretty hot.

SpaceX got approval for up to 25 flights per year. It's also approving the v2 and v3 versions in general. They still need to apply for a launch license for every flight, but this document says that a license can be granted and clears some of the topics common across flights.

 

[mfb]

SpaceX has launched 17 times in November and 19 times in the last 31 days. It's an outlier compared to the rest of the year, but the 2023 record was already broken earlier in October. They'll probably end up with 135-140 launches, up from 98 last year.

The first New Glenn is at the launch pad. Officially it's still aiming at a December launch.

Dragonfly will launch on Falcon Heavy. Vulcan was eligible to bid but Falcon Heavy has a better track record. Reliability is key if your payload costs over $3 billion. It will become the second vehicle to make atmospheric flights not on Earth, unless some new Mars helicopter sneaks in earlier.

 

[mfb]

Trump nominates Jared Isaacman to become NASA administrator
Isaacman funded and flew on Inspiration4 and is leading the Polaris program, where he was part of the first commercial spacewalk recently. He is a big fan of crewed spaceflight and going to Mars.

 

[mfb]

Update on the Artemis 1 heat shield issue and future timeline
The heat shield develops gas internally as it heats up. That gas couldn't escape well, cracking the material and leading to fragments breaking off. Artemis 2 will use the same heat shield (it's already installed) but an adjusted reentry trajectory to mitigate that issue.

Artemis 2 is now targeting April 2026 and Artemis 3 is planned for mid 2027.

Longer article about Isaacman and what it means for NASA

The Space Launch System might be cancelled - potentially even for Artemis 2 already. New Glenn could launch Orion and Vulcan could launch a kick stage to get Orion to the Moon. One extra launch, but it's far cheaper than SLS.

 

[Filip Larsen]

More on the NASA decision to fly with the Artemis II heat shield and an interview with the review team chair about it.

 

[mfb]

Analysis of Ingenuity's last flight
NASA thinks that the surface was too smooth for the camera to track, leading to a landing with too much horizontal velocity.