Swine Flu: Potential Threat to Human Species?

[The_Absolute]

I live in Arizona, and I've been hearing all the news about the new swine flu outbreaks in Mexico and in California/Texas. If the worst case scenario with this virus were to occur, how many people would approximately die from this? Hundreds of thousands? Millions? Hundreds of Millions? Billions perhaps? What is the kill rate of this virus? Could it threaten the safety of the entire human species? Will I be safe if I stay in my house and stockpile extremely large quantities of food and water?

 

[WhoWee]

The CDC doesn't seem to indicate taking extreme measures.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/24/swine.flu/

The new strain of swine flu has resisted some antiviral drugs.
Health Library

* MayoClinic.com: Influenza (flu)

The CDC is working with health officials in California and Texas and expects to find more cases, Schuchat said.

A pandemic is defined as: a new virus to which everybody is susceptible; the ability to readily spread from person to person; and the capability of causing significant disease in humans, said Dr. Jay Steinberg, an infectious disease specialist at Emory University Hospital Midtown in Atlanta. The new strain of swine flu meets only one of the criteria: novelty.

History indicates that flu pandemics tend to occur once every 20 years or so, so we're due for one, Steinberg said.

 

[The_Absolute]

The CDC doesn't seem to indicate taking extreme measures.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/24/swine.flu/

The new strain of swine flu has resisted some antiviral drugs.
Health Library

* MayoClinic.com: Influenza (flu)

The CDC is working with health officials in California and Texas and expects to find more cases, Schuchat said.

A pandemic is defined as: a new virus to which everybody is susceptible; the ability to readily spread from person to person; and the capability of causing significant disease in humans, said Dr. Jay Steinberg, an infectious disease specialist at Emory University Hospital Midtown in Atlanta. The new strain of swine flu meets only one of the criteria: novelty.

History indicates that flu pandemics tend to occur once every 20 years or so, so we're due for one, Steinberg said.

Approximately how many people die from these flu pandemics? Is this swine flu actually more dangerous/deadly than the Avian flu? Are the two somehow related?

 

[Moonbear]

Nothing I'm reading so far indicates that this will be any worse than other "severe" strains of flu. Likely the same general concepts apply, that the most vulnerable will be the elderly, the very young (infants and toddlers) and the immuno-compromised. It says everyone is susceptible, but doesn't mean everyone will be exposed, catch it, or be worse off than if they managed to catch any other strain of flu that would just leave them feeling really horrible for a few days.

The only particularly notable thing about this strain, and what it sounds like caught the CDC's attention, is that it's spreading outside the usual flu season. The flu season is usually over by now, but it seems this strain is still spreading.

Edit: Strike that...it seems it is affecting otherwise healthy adults

Most of Mexico’s dead were young, healthy adults, and none were over 60 or under 3 years old, the World Health Organization said. That alarms health officials because seasonal flus cause most of their deaths among infants and bedridden elderly people, but pandemic flus — like the 1918 Spanish flu, and the 1957 and 1968 pandemics — often strike young, healthy people the hardest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26mexico.html?ref=world

Still, it seems to remain only a small number of cases and a small number of deaths, so it may be like all the panic about SARS, which was quickly contained and controlled and didn't turn into the huge pandemic everyone feared. Modern knowledge about disease transmission may help prevent such large scale pandemics when a new virus strain is detected sufficiently early to focus on prevention rather than treatment.

 

[hypatia]

We got word here around April 5, from Canada, the blood samples sent there tested positive for Swine Influenza A/H1N1. The finding of elements, three animal strains and one human strain suggests that it developed by genetic re-assortment rather than a direct mutation.
Its migrant worker season, I would advise us all to maintain the same standards{wash hands often, ect.} as we do during the hight of flu season. I'm not sure its in the news yet, but cases have now seen in New York, Kansas, and Missouri. So far all USA cases have been mild, and are responding well to normal flu medications.

 

[The_Absolute]

How is this new virus transmitted?

 

[hypatia]

From respiratory droplets, which are expelled from the respiratory tract during coughing or sneezing. So standing with in 2 feet of a person with the virus, who is coughing/sneezing without covering the mouth/nose, is a good way to get it.They{the droplets} don't remain suspended in the air, so most people contact them from a surface with their hands, followed by touching the nose or mouth.

 

[signerror]

Novel strain of influenza causing epidemic

Many posts by public health experts at Effect Measure (part of the Scienceblogs network organized by Seed magazine):

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/swine_flu/

Dedicated CDC page:

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

Recent news:

Mexico Takes Powers to Isolate Cases of Swine Flu

“My government will not delay one minute to take all the necessary measures to deal with this epidemic,” Mr. Calderón said in Oaxaca State during the opening of a new hospital, which he said will set aside an area for anyone who might be affected by the new swine flu strain that has already killed as many as 68 people in Mexico and sickened more than 1,000 others. Most of the cases were reported in the center of the country, but there were other cases in pockets to the north and south.

Students Fall Ill in New York, and Swine Flu Is Likely Cause

Tests show that eight students at a Queens high school are likely to have contracted the human swine flu virus that has struck Mexico and a small number of other people in the United States, health officials in New York City said yesterday.

I invite the moderators to edit this post at will, to put anything they see as relevant here in this first post of the thread.

 

[signerror]

You know, someone once told me that the developed world will never have a pandemic, not until pigs will fly. Well, swine flu.

 

[signerror]

The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t confirm if Solis had swine flu or not.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEsNownABJ6Q&refer=home

 

[signerror]

CDC twitter:

http://twitter.com/CDCemergency

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Who remembers the 1975 outbreak? Back when that hit and everyone was talking about a possible pandemic, I read about the 1918 outbreak.

Just a bit of perspective.

 

[Phrak]

I live in Arizona, and I've been hearing all the news about the new swine flu outbreaks in Mexico and in California/Texas. If the worst case scenario with this virus were to occur, how many people would approximately die from this? Hundreds of thousands? Millions? Hundreds of Millions? Billions perhaps? What is the kill rate of this virus? Could it threaten the safety of the entire human species? Will I be safe if I stay in my house and stockpile extremely large quantities of food and water?

Are you an infant, over the age or 65? Do you have chronic pulmonary disorder?

Didn't think so.

 

[NeoDevin]

Does mexico have universal flu vaccine? Does it help with this strain?

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Its apparently gotten here to California. Last I heard doctors weren't too terribly worried buy advised caution and a visit to the doctor if you have flu symptoms.

 

[drankin]

I hope this doesn't turn out to be THE bug we've all been told is due to hit the human race.

 

[signerror]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/04/26/world/AP-Swine-Flu-World.html?_r=1

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) -- Twenty-five students and teachers in New Zealand, some with flu-like symptoms, were quarantined and tested for swine flu after returning from a trip to Mexico, officials said Sunday, as Asia stepped up surveillance for the deadly virus.

At least 81 people have died from severe pneumonia caused by a flu-like illness in Mexico, according to the World Health Organization, which declared the virus a public health emergency of ''pandemic potential.''

 

[signerror]

Does mexico have universal flu vaccine? Does it help with this strain?

According to the CDC, there is no vaccine effective against this strain. However, antivirals may be effective:

Is there a vaccine for swine flu?
Vaccines are available to be given to pigs to prevent swine influenza. There is no vaccine to protect humans from swine flu. The seasonal influenza vaccine will likely help provide partial protection against swine H3N2, but not swine H1N1 viruses.

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm

Are there medicines to treat swine flu?
Yes. CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with these swine influenza viruses. Antiviral drugs are prescription medicines (pills, liquid or an inhaler) that fight against the flu by keeping flu viruses from reproducing in your body. If you get sick, antiviral drugs can make your illness milder and make you feel better faster. They may also prevent serious flu complications. For treatment, antiviral drugs work best if started soon after getting sick (within 2 days of symptoms).

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm

Waiting for an expert to expand on this answer.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I hope this doesn't turn out to be THE bug we've all been told is due to hit the human race.

I think the fact that we've already seen mild cases pretty much kills that concern.

 

[Moridin]

In the 1918 pandemic, a lot of those who died where healthy adults, because it is thought that in previous decade or so, similar, but less severe, influenza strains provided partial protection against the 1918 pandemic.

http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/323/
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/60816/laurie-garrett/the-next-pandemic

Normally, of course, people with weaker immune systems are more susceptible to these kinds of influenza.

Is influenza a potential threat to all of humanity? Of course. The estimated deathtoll from the 1918 pandemic is anywhere from 20-100 million, mostly due to the very sparse record from the Soviet Union (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692)

The question is not so much whether there will be another pandemic, but when.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8153259847548931048 (educational video from Spokane Regional Health District)

 

[Count Iblis]

There is now an outbreak in New Zealand. I think that what you'll see is that there will be reported outbreaks first in the more developed countries, and everyone will wonder how the virus got to there from Mexico and then a week later we'll hear about large number of cases in less developed countries in Africa, because in these countries they won't notice much if just a handful people get a flu.

So, all the while the virus was already spreading from such less developed countries instead of directly from Mexico.

 

[Borek]

Are you an infant, over the age or 65? Do you have chronic pulmonary disorder?

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html

The majority of these cases have occurred in otherwise healthy young adults. Influenza normally affects the very young and the very old, but these age groups have not been heavily affected in Mexico.

So don't count on being young and healthy.

 

[Count Iblis]

I've read that when a new pandemic virus arises, the immune system is slow to detect it in your body. Then, when your immune system does finally react, that reaction is the strongest in younger people, because the immune system is operating at maximum strength and that maximum strength is stronger if you are between 20 and 40.

This immune response is then so strong that it damages the lungs. Then fluids leak into the lungs and you suffocate to death.

 

[FireSky86]

Read the book The Hot Zone and you will see why the CDC is taking this seriously.

Pretty scary stuff, the Influenza that is.

 

[Phrak]

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html

In the US,

All seven confirmed cases had mild Influenza-Like Illness (ILI), with only one requiring brief hospitalization.

It doesn't sound like anyone has much to get excited about, with the exception of the CDC who are paid to get excited.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

In the 1918 pandemic, a lot of those who died where healthy adults, because it is thought that in previous decade or so, similar, but less severe, influenza strains provided partial protection against the 1918 pandemic.

Last night I heard it reported that this is actually a hybid of four different flu viruses, so immunization to previous strains may provide some protection for this one. Interestingly, they forgot to mention that those who previously had the flu would also be partially protected.

Is influenza a potential threat to all of humanity? Of course. The estimated deathtoll from the 1918 pandemic is anywhere from 20-100 million, mostly due to the very sparse record from the Soviet Union (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692)

The question is not so much whether there will be another pandemic, but when.

Yes, it is a huge concern, but not something to panic about everytime we have an outbreak. For example, so far all cases here in the US have been mild, which clearly indicates that this not THE pandemic of concern.

Use your heads, take reasonable precautions, and relax. We have been through this sort of thing many, many times, and life will go on. Also, I have bad news: You are all going to die. It doesn't matter whether the flu or a Mack truck gets you. There is no doubt that driving your car poses a greater threat to your life than does the swine flu.

 

[Count Iblis]

In the US,


It doesn't sound like anyone has much to get excited about, with the exception of the CDC who are paid to get excited.

In Mexico they have about 80 deaths out of 1300 which is not inconsistent with no deaths out of a dozen or so in the US.

 

[Count Iblis]

New suspected cases reported in Canada, Spain, France, and Scotland.

 

[Count Iblis]

A reported case in Israel:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gW5lBZvuysU9NLUb7vMhSt2mC3UA

 

[Evo]

Once again, the media starts a craze.

People die from the flu every year and it's global.

 

[hypatia]

Yep Evo, anywhere from 20 to 30,000 people die of the flu, or flu related illness{co-infections} each year in th USA.

 

[dlgoff]

Yep Evo, anywhere from 20 to 30,000 people die of the flu, or flu related illness{co-infections} each year in th USA.

Do you think I will be one of those statistics? I'm currentely working in a regional pseudo-rabies testing lab for the USDA where we test porcine blood daily. Any precautions other than lab coats and gloves?

 

[Count Iblis]

Yep Evo, anywhere from 20 to 30,000 people die of the flu, or flu related illness{co-infections} each year in th USA.

These are mostly old and frail people who would have died within a few years anyway. In case of pandemic flu many young people will die.

 

[dlgoff]

These are mostly old and frail people who would have died within a few years anyway.

I guess I'm doomed.

 

[Evo]

I guess I'm doomed.

Poor dl.