Swine Flu: Potential Threat to Human Species?

[Astronuc]

The director of the state health department indicated that most recent infections with flu like symptoms were not H1N1, the apparent transmissibility of the H1N1 is not significantly greater than the annual seasonal flu, and it apparently it does not appear to be more severe than normal flu, and the majority of those (in the US) with H1N1 seem to be recovering. However, he pointed out that its early in the cycle, so the current trends are preliminary and they'll have a better idea in a month or so. Nevertheless, health officials are treating it as serious.

CDC and other health officials are puzzled why so many in Mexico died.

 

[WhoWee]

Then why does H5N1 kill 50% of the people it infects in this day and age? And how come SARS was so dangerous?

It's not a matter of when...that is - today.

It is a matter of where.

http://cme.medscape.com/viewarticle/518006
"4. Understanding the Current Threat of Avian Influenza A (H5N1)
Over the past 3 years, there has been an unprecedented outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus, subgroup H5N1. While this infection has been almost entirely restricted to live-stock poultry in Southeast Asia, the disease has spread into Europe with outbreaks reported in wild birds and nonavian mammals. While few cases of human influenza from H5N1 have occurred, outbreaks among birds typically predict subsequent human outbreaks.

Human infection with avian influenza virus H5N1 was first described in Hong Kong in 1997. As of November 1, 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported 122 confirmed cases with 62 deaths (case fatality rate 51%).[10] This is likely an underestimation, with concerns of failed reporting or failure to recognize and confirm cases. All reported human cases have occurred in Southeast Asia, primarily among poultry workers. These individuals have the highest exposure and the greatest risk for avian-to-human transmission. However, clustering of cases has been identified with spread to nonpoultry workers, suggesting sporadic human-to-human spread.[11] Although not currently suspected, a genetic mutation resulting in sustained human-to-human transmission could lead to a pandemic.

Unlike previous human influenza infections, most deaths have occurred in young, otherwise healthy individuals (median age 20 years, range 4 months - 81 years).[10] Whether this reflects the demographics of poultry workers with the highest exposure or a predilection for worse cases in this population remains to be seen and cannot be confirmed until more cases develop. However, this raises concerns over the population at risk for worse outcomes."

 

[Borek]

Human infection with avian influenza virus H5N1 was first described in Hong Kong in 1997. As of November 1, 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported 122 confirmed cases with 62 deaths (case fatality rate 51%).[10] This is likely an underestimation, with concerns of failed reporting or failure to recognize and confirm cases. All reported human cases have occurred in Southeast Asia, primarily among poultry workers.

Question is what 122 confirmed cases mean. It wouldn't be surprising if these are just cases where the flu was so severe that it ended with medical intervention, while others that contracted the flu never contacted the doctors and survived without any problems.

I am not telling that the avian flu is not dangerous, I am just telling we really don't know.

 

[D H]

CDC and other health officials are puzzled why so many in Mexico died.

The most likely explanation is bad reporting. WHO as of 600 GMT, 3 May 2009, places the number of deaths due to H1N1 at 20, 19 in Mexico and one in the US, not the 150+ number virulently reported by the media (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_03/en/index.html). Plain old vanilla influenza appears to be more deadly than H1N1. The reaction now appears to be overblown. The problem with overblown reactions is that when the real thing strikes we will have become inured and will not react appropriately. On the other hand, the problem with underblown(?) reactions is that this let's a particularly nasty mutation become pandemic.

 

[turbo]

At this point, I would not encourage loved-ones to quarantine themselves. H1N1 is pretty mild so far, and getting exposed to it now and developing antibodies in a mild reaction might be the best protection against any more virulent form that could evolve. When I was a kid, I got the measles, German measles, chicken pox - you name it. The only thing that came close to killing me was garden-variety flu and a secondary bronchial infection when I was about 6 or so. The vomiting and diarrhea (and general inability to keep anything down for a few days) was enough to dehydrate me past the point at which the doctor felt that intravenous re-hydration would help. He had my mother keep feeding me warm flat ginger ale and toast until I could hold down better food.

 

[Phrak]

The number of resurrections from swine flu death hovers at 143.

http://minnesotaindependent.com/337...ly-seven-confirmed-swine-flu-deaths-globally"

 

[The_Absolute]

Is it possible to survive this virus?

 

[D H]

In the US, http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/" . Yes, it is survivable. It is apparently no more virulent than the garden variety flus that hit every year. There is no reason to be any more worried about this particular strain of flu than any other influenza strain. (But note well: Plain old vanilla influenza kills 36,000 Americans every year).

 

[Phrak]

In the US, http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/" . Yes, it is survivable. It is apparently no more virulent than the garden variety flus that hit every year. There is no reason to be any more worried about this particular strain of flu than any other influenza strain. (But note well: Plain old vanilla influenza kills 36,000 Americans every year).

That's one death in Huston; a toddler from Mexico. Will the Huston attorney general investigate the need to level charges of negligent manslaughter?

 

[rekshaw]

I was watching the CNN couple of days ago and a spokesman was arguing that the epidemic is actually way to over-blown by the media and that even though it helps to keep everyone on such a high alert, it is really unnecessary as it is far from being really dangerous.

 

[D H]

I was watching the CNN couple of days ago and a spokesman was arguing that the epidemic is actually way to over-blown by the media and that even though it helps to keep everyone on such a high alert, it is really unnecessary as it is far from being really dangerous.

The most dangerous thing about this disease was our collective overblown reaction to it. This reaction caused significant harm to the economy, raised some old racist feelings on the part of some against Mexicans, and worst of all, inured us to calls for high alert. This last item is particularly troublesome. The downside of too many false alarms is an under-reaction when some true killer disease does strike in the future.

The initial reaction was appropriate given the number of purported deaths in Mexico City and the types of people purportedly killed by the disease. However, by the middle of last week the WHO had already reported that the number of deaths in Mexico City was off by an order of magnitude. That should have made public health officials completely re-evaluate their response strategy. By the end of last week, the CDC was still recommending closing schools for even one suspect case of the flu.

I suspect the media are the biggest culprits. On the Sunday talk shows, the main thrust of the discussiones was whether the government had done too little, not too much.

 

[Count Iblis]

I was watching the CNN couple of days ago and a spokesman was arguing that the epidemic is actually way to over-blown by the media and that even though it helps to keep everyone on such a high alert, it is really unnecessary as it is far from being really dangerous.

I think that without this media attention, you would have many young, healthy Americans dying by now. So, I think it explains why swine flu appears to be less lethal outside of Mexico.

Compared to other flu epidemics, swine flu is more dangerous. In Mexico ordinary flu outbreaks did not typically kill young relatively healthy people. When a month ago people were falling it with swine flu, no one suspected it was anything else than ordinary flu. Only when people started to die who would not be expected to die, were detailed investigations started.

In Mexico, people became more cautious, people with severe flu symptoms went to the hospital instead of thinking that they will recover without medical attention. Also, people may have been used to going to work even if they have a fever. They stopped doing that now.

By the time swine flu spread to the US and other places in the world, everyone was warned. Then we cannot look at the death tolls now and compare that to ordinary flu. In case of ordinary flu it is very rare for young people to die and it is not very rare for young people who have a fever to take stupid risks by going to work as if nothing happened.

Then what may happen is that a young person can end up getting a pneumonia and end up in hospital, but that in itself is quite rare. If that happens the person will typically recover.

This time around, people are not taking any risks, some young people who get high fever are treated in hospital. They get tamiflu right away and they then recover quite rapidly.

So, perhaps one can make the case that this wine flu epidemic is not as bad as the 1918 flu epidemic, as such an epidemic may have killed people despite rapid treatment of severe cases. But it is clearly worse than an ordinary flu epidemic. And you have to also consider that people in risk groups who get the flu shot are now at risk as the flu shot does not protect against swine flu.

 

[D H]

I think that without this media attention, you would have many young, healthy Americans dying by now. So, I think it explains why swine flu appears to be less lethal outside of Mexico.

I don't think so. This particular strain of influenza is apparently no more fatal, and possibly less fatal, that the seasonal flu. This disease is not attacking healthy young adults. The number of deaths attributable to this disease in Mexico is only 19. The problem with the disease is the reporting of it, not the disease itself. The original reports of 159 deaths were, simply put, incorrect.

 

[Count Iblis]

The 19 cases are the cases where you can rigorously prove that people died from swine flu. There are many cases of young people in Mexico who died after more than a week of illness. They may have died from a secondary infection, so technically this then doesn't count as a swine flu death. However, the number of such deaths greatly exceeds what you would expect from ordinary flu.


To compare swine flu to ordinary flu one would have consider a population who would treat swine flu as ordinary flu. Then, even in the developed world, a large fraction of the populaton do not visit the doctor, even if they have a high fever. Medical attention in hospital is only considered in case of pneumonia. It is not clear if this sort of hands down treatment for swine flu would not have lead to deaths.

Also, CNN interviewed a father and her daughter (about 16 years old) in Texas a week ago. She got swine flu, got 40 °C fever visited the hospital immediately, got tamiflu and recovered quite fast. How do we know that she would not have died if people were not aware of potantiall dangerous swine flu?

The father may not have sought medical attention until days later if it became clear that she had breading difficulties, as 40 °C fever is not unusual for ordinary flu. Then if she had contracted a secondary infection and died from that in hospital, her death would not even have qualified as a swine flu death.

 

[Moridin]

A lot of people in this topic seem to be unaware about the differences between seasonal and pandemic influenza.

 

[Count Iblis]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aSw7zjyBgq_k&refer=us

Data so far suggest the virus is striking younger patients than is typical for influenza, and younger patients than usual are entering hospitals, said Anne Schuchat, a scientist at the CDC. “Very few” patients with swine flu are older than 50, and the median age is 17. It’s possible that older people have greater immunity, she said.

 

[turbo]

I don't know what strain of swine flu passed through here in the mid 70's but it is possible that people who either were immunized at the time and/or went through a mild infection are resistant. They set up large teams of medical technicians and nurses in the local armories and vaccinated us with pneumatic "guns" assembly-line style instead of using needles and vials of vaccine. This alone could have created an age disparity such that anybody who was an infant or older in the mid-70's (maybe in their early thirties or older now) would be under-represented as victims today. Such a disparity does not in and of itself prove that that the new flu is more virulent or that it targets younger people selectively.

 

[mgb_phys]

“Very few” patients with swine flu are older than 50, and the median age is 17. It’s possible that older people have greater immunity, she said.

It's also possible that it isn't very person-person infectious.
There are a lot more 17 year old poultry/pig workers than 50 year old ones.

 

[Count Iblis]

It's also possible that it isn't very person-person infectious.
There are a lot more 17 year old poultry/pig workers than 50 year old ones.

I think this is also the pattern they see in the US.

 

[Count Iblis]

http://www.upi.com/news/issueofthed...uld-devastate-human-race/UPI-43071241461493/"

The four strands of the swine flu virus come from pigs, humans and birds. Experts believe that the virus mutated into its current form in the bodies of pigs. Health authorities are particularly worried that the capability to mutate already exhibited by the virus could eventually let it combine with the human immunodeficiency virus, which causes AIDS.

 

[Evo]

http://www.upi.com/news/issueofthed...uld-devastate-human-race/UPI-43071241461493/"

Oh good grief. How desparate are these people to come up with things?

 

[atyy]

http://www.upi.com/news/issueofthed...uld-devastate-human-race/UPI-43071241461493/"

Probably a gross misreading of http://www.who.int/hiv/mediacentre/influenza_hiv.pdf.

 

[Moridin]

Oh good grief. How desparate are these people to come up with things?

"The Swine Flu? Pah, just Media Hype!"

 

[Count Iblis]

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE54H3QO20090518?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0"

"That's very unusual, to have so many people under 20 to require hospitalization, and some of them in (intensive care units)," Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing.

 

[Moridin]

W.H.O. Raises Alert Level as Flu Spreads to 74 Countries

GENEVA — The World Health Organization has told its member nations it is declaring a swine flu pandemic — the first global flu epidemic in 41 years, news services reported.

The move came after an emergency meeting with flu experts here that was convened after a sharp rise in cases in Australia, which reported 1,263 cases on Thursday, and rising numbers in Britain, Japan, Chile and elsewhere.

In a statement sent to member countries, the W.H.O. said it decided to raise the pandemic alert level from phase 5 to 6, indicating a global pandemic outbreak, The Associated Press said, attributing the information to health officials from Scotland, Indonesia and Thailand. An official announcement of the change was due at 6 p.m. Geneva time on Thursday (noon in New York).

Where are the "it is just a media hype" people now?

 

[mgb_phys]

Where are the "it is just a media hype" people now?

The spokesman also said this was mainly an administrative matter and didn't indicate the flu was any more dangerous
Of the two other official pandemics, one killed 100million people, the other one was only noticed by the WHO.
Basically all it means is that governemts should make H1N5 vaccines available as well as regular seasonal flu.

 

[Moridin]

The spokesman also said this was mainly an administrative matter and didn't indicate the flu was any more dangerous
Of the two other official pandemics, one killed 100million people, the other one was only noticed by the WHO.
Basically all it means is that governemts should make H1N5 vaccines available as well as regular seasonal flu.

Hardly a mere administrative matter.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

There are clear distinctions between level 5 and level 6.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

I am amazed at the length science deniers will go to support or prop up their beliefs.

 

[Moridin]

The spokesman also said this was mainly an administrative matter and didn't indicate the flu was any more dangerous
Of the two other official pandemics, one killed 100million people, the other one was only noticed by the WHO.
Basically all it means is that governemts should make H1N5 vaccines available as well as regular seasonal flu.

Also, what other two "official pandemics"? There have been much more than just two pandemics just in the last hundred years, none of them merely noticed by the WHO. Again, I am amazed by what you science deniers like to cook up when you think no one is watching. The current influenza virus is also H1N1, not H1N5.

1729-1730, 1732-1733, 1781-1782, 1830-1831, 1833, 1889-1890, 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1969, 2009 are the dates of the previous influenza pandemics. The 1968 pandemic, also knows as the Hong Kong flu killed around 1 million people around the world. The one you refer to, which is the 1918 pandemic, killed around 50-100 million people, the large range is due to insufficient records from USSR.

http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8153259847548931048

 

[mgb_phys]

Also, what other two "official pandemics"? There have been much more than just two pandemics just in the last hundred years, none of them merely noticed by the WHO.

The 1919 spanish flu and something in the 1960s (I was only half listening to the radio)
The point was that pandemic is based on rather arbitrary rulings. eg cases in two countries, so a single case each in Andorra + Lichtenstien = a pandemic, a million dead in China doesn't ?
The WHO making it a level 6 doesn't affect your chances of catching it.

You have to be immediately suspicious of any medical statistics or rulings that depend on national boundaries, if I travel 6km south of here I can no longer give blood for 3months because the US has West Nile Virus and Canada doesn't. The US border crossing is a pain but I don't think it effectively keeps out mosquitoes.

Again, I am amazed by what you science deniers like to cook up when you think no one is watching.

We get a memo.

 

[Red Rum]

The original question was "is swine flu a threat". Having it declared a pandemic doesn't make it any more threatening. Have the mortality figures become any more alarming despite the increase in the number of people infected?

Has the age profile of swine flu sufferers changed? Is it still mainly the young who probably have not encountered this strain previously? Science deniers indeed! As the WHO itself has stated: no grounds for panic.

There was a pretty nasty flu virus around in Europe last winter (and according to the media in Australia as well) which I'm sure caused the deaths of a large number of vulnerable people, but I don't recall any great commotion about it. The doctor I visited about it took my temperature, confirmed I probably had the flu (I went so that I could get a certificate to say I was ill in order to claim my vacation days back) and gave me antibiotics that I didn't need. I felt so awful I took the course anyway just in case there was a risk of secondary infection.
I do however have some advice for sufferers of infectious respiratory infections: be socially responsible and stay indoors to limit the spread. And if you're not ill, stay away from hospitals and doctors' surgeries during flu outbreaks.

 

[Count Iblis]

The alarming thing about this virus is that 30% to 50% of the deaths are healthy people in the age range between 30 and 50. People in this age range are less likely to catch the virus compared to people under 25, but apparently they are more likely to die from the disease.

So, while ordinary flu kills many old and frail people who would have died within a few years anyway, this virus kills people who would have lived for many decades.

 

[buffordboy23]

The alarming thing about this virus is that 30% to 50% of the deaths are healthy people in the age range between 30 and 50. People in this age range are less likely to catch the virus compared to people under 25, but apparently they are more likely to die from the disease.

If this is true, then there is at least one similarity between this pandemic and the one of 1918-1919 according to previous posts to data links in this thread. If I recall correctly, when the swine flu first gained media attention due to the outbreak in Mexico the media outlets reported scenarios similar to your given statistics. However, we later learned that the validity of these reports was dubious. Please provide the reference from which you state these figures.

 

[Andy Resnick]

Ummm... when I checked the CDC website, it indicated there were 27 deaths in the U.S. due to H1N1 virus. I don't see how this compares to 1 million or 50 million or 100 million deaths.

Or is this some sort of "we must be ever vigilant" mentality?

 

[russ_watters]

The reason it affects younger people more may be very simple:

Scientists think it's because older people have been exposed to other viruses in the past that are more similar to swine flu than more recent seasonal flus.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090521/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu_older_immunity

 

[ViewsofMars]

I think it's extremely important to read the whole article from the United Nation News Center in light of the fact that it is globally being made available to the public, though many aren't aware of it. I've highlighted certain items in hope that it will create an atmosphere of calmness, security, and a strong faith in our scientific community to come to the aide of those in need.

World facing global A(H1N1) flu pandemic, announces UN health agency

11 June 2009 – The A(H1N1) influenza outbreak has officially reached global pandemic levels, the public health arm of the United Nations announced today, as it raised its warning system to Phase 6.

The World Health Organization (WHO) stressed that Phase 6, the highest level on its pandemic alert scale, refers to the spread of the virus and not its severity.

The upgrade to Phase 6 means that sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus has spread beyond North America, where it was concentrated, with WHO reporting 28,774 verified cases of the infection in 74 countries, including 144 deaths, as of this morning.

“The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic,” WHO Director-General Margaret Chan told reporters in Geneva, adding that the spread of the virus is unstoppable.

“On present evidence, the overwhelming majority of patients experience mild symptoms,” said Dr. Chan, and WHO does “not expect to see a dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections.”

She noted that the virus tends to infect younger people with the majority of cases, in areas with widespread outbreaks, occurring in people under 25 years of age, and around 2 per cent of cases have suffered very severe symptoms, such as life-threatening pneumonia.

Dr. Chan added that the most severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years, a significantly different pattern to epidemics of regular seasonal flu which generally claims frail, elderly people.

“Of greatest concern,” said Dr. Chan. “We do not know how this virus will behave under conditions typically found in the developing world.”

People in the developing world are particularly vulnerable to severe reactions to the infection, as more than 99 per cent of maternal deaths occur in poor countries, and around 85 per cent of the burden of chronic diseases is concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, said Dr. Chan.

“It is prudent to anticipate a bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited resources, poor health care and high prevalence of underlying medical problems.”

Countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked should prepare for a second wave of infection, warned Dr. Chan, adding that countries with no reported cases or only a few infections should remain vigilant.

“I understand that production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come.”

WHO recommends no restrictions on travel or border closures, said Dr. Chan. “We are all in this together and we will all get through this together,” she stated.

Speaking at his monthly news conference in New York today, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stressed the need for preparedness, especially in the wake of WHO’s announcement.

“We must be watchful. We do not know what picture will emerge in the coming months,” he stated. “The virus has hit mainly developed countries. That is likely to soon change – and it will have consequences.

“We must therefore be prepared. Our best response is a firm demonstration of global solidarity,” Mr. Ban said, adding that he will convene a meeting of the Influenza Steering Committee in New York on Monday to “map out our immediate next steps.”

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=31106&Cr=h1n1&Cr1=