Swine Flu: Potential Threat to Human Species?

[Evo]

These are mostly old and frail people who would have died within a few years anyway. In case of pandemic flu many young people will die.

So far there is no medical evidence that young healthy people are more susceptible to this case of swine flu, nor is there evidence that it is particularly deadly. So far, ALL of the patients in the US have all recovered within a normal time frame of a couple of weeks.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm58d0424a1.htm

I think the poverty level in Central Mexico and lack of adequate healthcare is more to blaim for the deaths there. We aren't seeing it in the US.

 

[zoobyshoe]

This is interesting. Some of the California cases are here in San Diego County, where I live. Yesterday I was out at a street festival and there was a guy with a pet pig on a leash, walking it around like a dog.

 

[Evo]

This is interesting. Some of the California cases are here in San Diego County, where I live. Yesterday I was out at a street festival and there was a guy with a pet pig on a leash, walking it around like a dog.

Can pigs catch swine flu from humans?

 

[zoobyshoe]

Can pigs catch swine flu from humans?

I don't know, but if the pig was worried it was about other, more obvious threats humans pose to swine.

 

[lisab]

Read the book The Hot Zone and you will see why the CDC is taking this seriously.

Pretty scary stuff, the Influenza that is.

Yes I read that book, it's very informative. In 1918 we didn't have large numbers of people flying from continent to continent, like we do now. Yet it's terrifying http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu" .

 

[Evo]

Yes I read that book, it's very informative. In 1918 we didn't have large numbers of people flying from continent to continent, like we do now. Yet it's terrifying http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu" .

Actually tuberculosis was a major killer at that time too. The public didn't have access to medical care needed to treat the symptoms.

I found this interesting.

UC Berkeley Demographer Finds Undetected Tuberculosis May Have Been Real Killer in 1918 Flu Epidemic

http://www.library.csi.cuny.edu/dept/history/lavender/389/flu.html

I wonder how much of the population at that time could have already been weakened by undetected tuberculosis and therefore at a greater risk of complications?

Don't forget how primitive medicine was in 1918.

 

[lisab]

Actually tuberculosis was a major killer at that time too. The public didn't have access to medical care needed to treat the symptoms.

I found this interesting.



http://www.library.csi.cuny.edu/dept/history/lavender/389/flu.html

I wonder how much of the population at that time could have already been weakened by undetected tuberculosis and therefore at a greater risk of complications?

Don't forget how primitive medicine was in 1918.

Very interesting link. I wonder, does "garden variety" flu pose an increased risk of death to a person with TB?

 

[Evo]

Very interesting link. I wonder, does "garden variety" flu pose an increased risk of death to a person with TB?

I would suppose. Since so many people came down with the flu in 1918, that the high numbers of people with TB would account for increased deaths makes sense.

Noymer's findings explain a peculiarity of the 1918 pandemic that killed at least 20 million people worldwide.

Normally, the influenza virus is not lethal to young and middle-aged people. Most of its victims are elderly. But in 1918, the typical victim was a man between the ages of 20 and 40, a group that normally has a very low death rate, said Noymer.

In the early 20th century, however, tuberculosis was a major killer of men in that age group, apparently because of transmission in factories where men worked in densely-packed, poorly-ventilated conditions, Noymer said. Men were about 30 percent more likely to die from TB than women were-a pattern closely paralleled during the flu epidemic.

In 1918, men were 35 percent more likely than women to die from flu. Of the 500,000 Americans who died that year, 280,000-300,000 were men.

"This can't be a coincidence," said Noymer. "I think TB is the missing piece of the puzzle. It explains why younger people, especially men, died in such great numbers. Scientists since 1918 have been searching for clues for why the 1918 epidemic was so deadly, especially in middle age. But people did not look at what happened to tuberculosis death rates, not only in the epidemic year, but in the years afterwards."

His findings explain another mystery. Scientists who have attempted to study the gene sequence of the 1918 influenza virus have seen nothing out of the ordinary, nothing to explain the flu's virulence.

"Never before or since have we seen a flu epidemic that was so virulent," said Noymer. "The spread was extremely rapid, as was the development of the infection. Almost everyone who died was gone in two weeks.

"I do believe my finding explains most of the deadliness of the 1918 epidemic. It doesn't prove that, if another strain were to appear, that the U.S. population would be safe, but it strongly suggests that we would fare much better."

Noymer's analysis shows that the 500,000 people who died in 1918 were almost exactly the number who would have been in various stages of disease from TB. Using pre-1918 death rates, Noymer calculated that 500,000 more TB deaths would have occurred between 1918 and 1932 had there never been a flu epidemic.

As a result of the excess death among men in 1918, a healthier male population was left, said Noymer. For years afterward, the life expectancy of men, which usually lagged behind women by six years, moved up to more closely resemble the female pattern. It was this startling change that sparked Noymer's research, when he saw something no demographer had ever noticed before - a precipitous drop in 1919 in the gender differential from six to two years.

"When I saw that," said Noymer, " I said to myself, 'That's the flu!' And, surprise, surprise, it leaves the same mortality patterns on age and sex that TB does."

Co-author on the article is Michel Garenne, senior researcher at the French center for population and development studies, CEPED, Centre français sur la population et le développement.

 

[Phrak]

In Mexico they have about 80 deaths out of 1300 which is not inconsistent with no deaths out of a dozen or so in the US.

take it back. And it a significantly larger number of trials.

 

[wildman]

Are you an infant, over the age or 65? Do you have chronic pulmonary disorder?

Didn't think so.

According to my wife (who is somewhat involved in all this), this flu has killed mostly young adults in Mexico. She said that young adults in the modern World have less resistance to attack by severe flu since they have suffered less exposure to infectious disease than older people so it is possible to get a bad reaction.

See:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090424/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

The above article said this:

Epidemiologists are particularly concerned because the only fatalities so far were in young people and adults.

 

[lisab]

According to my wife (who is somewhat involved in all this), this flu has killed mostly young adults in Mexico. She said that young adults in the modern World have less resistance to attack by severe flu since they have suffered less exposure to infectious disease than older people so it is possible to get a bad reaction.

See:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090424/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

The above article said this:

In the past, severe pandemics also seem to have targeted young adults. It's one of the reasons this particular strain of influenza has caught the attention of public health officials worldwide.

 

[donotremember]

Will a gas mask protect against swine flu?

I was just thinking how cool it would be a buy a gas mask and walk around with it in public to freak people out making them think it was that bad and I was wondering would any reasonably priced mask actually offer protection? I have tried to research this but I can't find much useful information about the extent of protection these masks have against viruses. If I were to get something useful (like a full face mask) how much would it cost and what is the de facto standard model or type?

 

[Evo]

In the past, severe pandemics also seem to have targeted young adults.

Young adults that possibly already had tuberculosis.

http://www.library.csi.cuny.edu/dept/history/lavender/389/flu.html

 

[wildman]

Young adults that possibly already had tuberculosis.

http://www.library.csi.cuny.edu/dept/history/lavender/389/flu.html

Hmm, interesting idea. I'll ask my wife to check if there is any connection.

 

[Phrak]

Could tuberculosis be a factor in the Mexican fatalities?

21 per 100K population, 2008 WHO report. It doesn't seem a significant factor...
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/global_health/id/tuberculosis/countries/lac/mexico_profile.html"

 

[Moridin]

I've read that when a new pandemic virus arises, the immune system is slow to detect it in your body. Then, when your immune system does finally react, that reaction is the strongest in younger people, because the immune system is operating at maximum strength and that maximum strength is stronger if you are between 20 and 40.

This immune response is then so strong that it damages the lungs. Then fluids leak into the lungs and you suffocate to death.

The technical term for this is cytokine storm.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/25/world/americas/25mexico.html
http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/323/

 

[jtbell]

The swine flu may have turned up in South Carolina. A group of high school students in a town about a half-hour's drive from here went to Cancun for spring break. When they came back last week, several had flu symptoms. Now the state health department is analyzing samples from them.

http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=10254240

 

[Count Iblis]

I read here:

http://history.howstuffworks.com/middle-ages/black-death5.htm

that the Black Death epidemics may have been caused by some unknown pandemic virus and not by bubonic plague. So, the 1918 pandemic may be a relatively mild pandemic compared to what we could face in the future.

 

[WhoWee]

It might be time to close the Mexican border.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Mexico-Earthquake-Mexico-City-Is-Rocked-By-Earthquake-Sending-Office-Workers-Spilling-Onto-Streets/Article/200904415270304?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header_2&lid=ARTICLE_15270304_Mexico_Earthquake%3A_Mexico_City_Is_Rocked_By_Earthquake_Sending_Office_Workers_Spilling_Onto_Streets

 

[Count Iblis]

I suspect that it is too late for that. Note also that you only hear about cases outside of Mexico in developed countries (as I predicted earlier inthis thread). This is not because there aren't any cases in, say, Africa, but because in Africa they won't sound the alarm if a few people get a fever.

So, far all we know, there may be hundreds of cases in Africa and then it may spread from there to the rest of the world.

 

[Evo]

Could tuberculosis be a factor in the Mexican fatalities?

21 per 100K population, 2008 WHO report. It doesn't seem a significant factor...
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/global_health/id/tuberculosis/countries/lac/mexico_profile.html"

TB would have been a major issue in 1918. My thoughts on the current deaths in Mexico is the extreme poverty and lack of prompt and appropriate medical care for the people in Central Mexico. Most flu related deaths are due to secondary infections, such as pneumonia.

 

[atyy]

I suspect that it is too late for that. Note also that you only hear about cases outside of Mexico in developed countries (as I predicted earlier inthis thread). This is not because there aren't any cases in, say, Africa, but because in Africa they won't sound the alarm if a few people get a fever.

So, far all we know, there may be hundreds of cases in Africa and then it may spread from there to the rest of the world.

I wonder if the screening methods set up in some parts of asia will be of any help? Last time I passed through Hong Kong I saw they had some equipment in place at the airport, presumably set up during SARS.

 

[WhoWee]

Robert Gibbs is taking questions regarding Obama's recent visit to Mexico. Reporters are trying to determine if Mexico warned of an outbreak prior to the visit. Apparently, the President might have shaken hands with someone who was infected.

Obama IS NOT SICK...not the issue.

 

[ray b]

are the masks any good at stoping the virus
are not virus too small for a simple mask to stop

 

[Borek]

Mask stops respiratory droplets with virus.

 

[atyy]

are the masks any good at stoping the virus
are not virus too small for a simple mask to stop

For SARS the N95 mask was known to stop the virus and was recommended as a public safety measure in several countries. I don't know about this virus, but one website is advertising the same mask as a "swine flu mask": http://www.eonenet.com/sars.htm.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Do those of us who were vaccinated against the swine flu in '76 have resistance to today's virus?

 

[The_Absolute]

What are the odds of this disease outbreak being a natural occurance? What are the odds of a major earthquake hitting the virus epicenter shortly after it's outbreak?

 

[mcknia07]

I have heard a lot about this in the past few days. It seems pretty big, but why is it really any more different than the normal flu? (Besides the fact that I know it's a mix of like 2 flus)

 

[Monique]

Do those of us who were vaccinated against the swine flu in '76 have resistance to today's virus?

The swine virus is a fast-evolving virus, like the human influenza virus. Even if the vaccine was against the same type as is going around now (H1N1), the chances that you would have a significant protection are pretty slim.

 

[jreelawg]

Can anyone explain the mechanism of how 4 viruses come together into one? Is it rare for this happen?

Second, we seem to have been anticipating or at least concerned about a possible devastating avian flu outbreak. What is the basis for this concern? What in recent times happened to make the risk of mutated flu greater?

Third, does anyone know why common forms of the flu happen every year, but deadly forms like the 1918 form die out? Is this new virus going to come and go quickly, or will it be something new that people get every year?

Fourth, why is this virus rampant when it isn't flu season? If this were to happen in the winter would it be much worse? And are we now going to have to worry about the flu year round?

 

[ray b]

second question
tooo many people moving around faster then ever now
so a virus can travel faster

 

[ray b]

do the native americans have a somewhat less efficient immune system?
as far more mexicans are of a high % native stock
and a very high % of natives died off after contact in the historic records

did the 1918 flu kill more native then euro people in mexico or other places
with high native populations?
how did our own native population do in the 1918 flu in the USA?

 

[jreelawg]

do the native americans have a somewhat less efficient immune system?
as far more mexicans are of a high % native stock
and a very high % of natives died off after contact in the historic records

did the 1918 flu kill more native then euro people in mexico or other places
with high native populations?
how did our own native population do in the 1918 flu in the USA?

The spanish flu pandemic had an estimated 2.5% global mortality rate. However some places had mortality rates as high as 22%. I'm not sure what significance can be attributed to specific factors. If this new pandemic is as bad as the 1918 one, we may see a very low mortality rate in places like the U.S., very high mortality rates in third world countries, and a relatively low global average mortality rate with a significant total global death toll.

 

[CRGreathouse]

What are the odds of this disease outbreak being a natural occurance?

Very high, I'd peg it much closer to 100% than 99%. Flu outbreaks are common, viruses mutate easily, the swine flu has hit before, and there's no obvious financial or religious motive in hitting Mexico.

What are the odds of a major earthquake hitting the virus epicenter shortly after it's outbreak?

Lets see. The USGS says that there are about http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html to hit Mexico yearly. Let's say the time period in question is two weeks -- roughly how long this has been going on. The expected number in that timeframe is 0.75, so the Poisson distribution gives probability of roughly 52%.