The Monty Hall paradox/conundrum

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In summary, the 50:50 conclusion is flawed because it is based on a misdirection: focussing on the 'swap' option when there are two other options that the host can follow.
  • #211
WWGD said:
I agree. What I mean is in the more general sense, if you're not sure you picked the goat, there is a 2/3 probability you did.
Yes. So if I didn't initially pick the car, then switching wins the car.
 
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  • #212
sysprog said:
Yes. So if I didn't initially pick the car, then switching wins the car.
Yes, I think we're both saying the same in different ways.
 
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