This hurricane Harvey/Irma is nuts

[jim hardy]

My youngest daughter just moved from Homestead(just South of Miami) to Kentucky. Looks like good timing. This could be another Andrew or Donna.

Wind damage not flood
...

 

[MarkFL]

@MarkFL how are you preparing?

I've got all my supplies, and I can board up the windows in less than an hour, as I store boards cut for each window. Generator is good to go, plenty of fuel. I will evacuate with my mother, and youngest sister and her family if that looks prudent.

I'm in NE Florida, on the Atlantic coast about 38 miles south of Jacksonville, and the latest spaghetti models I have seen are beginning to move to the west a bit. But, I know it is still too far off for anything to be considered likely at this point.

 

[Borg]

This is nuts! All three of these storms are expected to be hurricanes by Friday.

The current track for Irma is frightening. The current forecast is a direct strike on Miami.

 

[jim hardy]

It's about as tall on the map as all of Florida.. That's a big one.

This will be an historic weather map.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

I would like to see the mechanical engineers as well as others weigh in on what kind of structures, if any, can stand up to a cat 5. Among other things, I've always thought that building houses out of wood is not wise here in America. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've read that North America has the worst weather catastrophes of any other region in the world.

I see two basic problems. We have overpopulation and global warming. The effects of overpopulation are clear enough. As for global warming, is there peer reviewed analysis showing that global warming is leading to more severe weather? I've heard there is lots of it; perhaps the weather experts can provide some good examples.

Finally, once again I link to Dr. James Powell. At the top of the page are the following two videos. For the tl;dr crowd, these are very short indeed. I wish more people would visit his site and spread the word. It might cut down on scientific ignorance regarding this question.

http://jamespowell.org/

Best wishes and good luck to all the unfortunate people who are caught up in these weather catastrophes. Kudos to the first responders and the altruistic ordinary citizens who have helped as best they can.



P.S. there are two nuclear power plants which may be in Irma's path.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Here is the National Hurricane Center's page on Irma.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Irma

This page is useful.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

Take care, Floridians and others.

 

[jim hardy]

They keep moving the predicted path Eastward Last night it was centered over Miami.

i think there's a good chance it'll miss Florida's mainland .

old jim

 

[jim hardy]

Which will get to Andros Island first - Irene or the Eastward flow ?

https://aviationweather.gov/windtemp/plot
click 'vert level' to see winds aloft

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

NASA has a YouTube channel with lots of videos. Here's one that shows global warming from 1880-2015.



They have released a new one for 1880-2016 which is downloadable. This page contains information and links about how they come up with it. I include the 2015 video because at least on my browser the bottom part gets cut off a bit on the NASA page.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4546

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

This one is interesting because it shows a guy in a wind tunnel at up to Cat 5 wind speed.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Please allow me one last post on this topic. We want to understand the science behind hurricanes. Here is a quick and simple explanation of how hurricanes form.



Here is the story in much more detail, thanks to NASA.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ClimateStorms/page1.php

 

[Borg]

It looks like Florida is seriously screwed. Irma is now predicted to run straight up the middle of the state all the way to Georgia.
The only upside is that it won't be a major hurricane for very long once it's inland.

 

[jim hardy]

Hurricane season is the price you pay for those fabulous Florida winters.

Barring a last minute turn East - any substandard construction will get found out, as happened with Andrew. This one must be 4X the diameter of Andrew.

 

[Dr Transport]

Hurricane season is the price you pay for those fabulous Florida winters.

Barring a last minute turn East - any substandard construction will get found out, as happened with Andrew. This one must be 4X the diameter of Andrew.

Last description I heard was Irma was bigger than Texas...

 

[jim hardy]

Key West to Jacksonville is only 5.8 degrees

 

[Spinnor]

It looks like Florida is seriously screwed. Irma is now predicted to run straight up the middle of the state all the way to Georgia.
The only upside is that it won't be a major hurricane for very long once it's inland.

View attachment 210626

In bowling language I think this is going to be a strike though I thought if it hugged the coast more damage would be done?

 

[Borg]

In bowling language I think this is going to be a strike though I thought if it hugged the coast more damage would be done?

I think that this will be much worse. The previous path had it going back out to sea after passing over Miami which would have limited the severest winds to a smaller quadrant.

Now the eye will pass over most of the state until it drops down from hurricane status somewhere north of Orlando. Winds in excess of 100 MPH are expected on both coasts. Towns along the center of the state are going to experience 125 - 150 MPH eastward blowing winds followed up minutes later with nearly the same wind speeds coming from the west after the eye passes. Whetever doesn't get blown away from the eastward winds, will be bent over - towards the west. When the westward winds arrive, those things will form a perfect trap for the air. It's going to be terrible for anyplace south of Orlando. North of that will still get hurricane force winds but it shouldn't be above Cat 2 by then.

 

[Spinnor]

Now up the west coast, nearly direct hit on Key West.

Some in Key West will ride out the storm,

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172226042.html

 

[BillTre]

This article shows where, hazardous wastes sites, hospitals, and nuclear plants are WRT possible hurricane Irma paths.

 

[Borg]

Some in Key West will ride out the storm,

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172226042.html

I found a nice list of webcams in the keys and other locations in Florida. It will be interesting to see how long they last.

This is as close as I will get.



Edit: This appears to be where the Marathon camera is pointed.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

I was looking for an explanation of the European model people are talking about. It is reputed to be the most accurate. I found this page.

To quote from the article:

"Now, you may be wondering, "Why is the official forecast so far to the left, when all of the other models had moved east?" The answer is the European model. This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations."

I normally don't watch TV, but I do when there's something this important going on. I have yet to see anyone point out differences between the models and explain why they differ. I might have missed it, but I've been watching for many hours.

People in authority are making decisions based on these models. This would seem to be an extremely important issue, given that so many lives, not to mention property and money, are at stake! Seems like a good area for a PhD thesis for someone who is qualified.

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...ost-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/

 

[Spinnor]

Southern most point,



Tame for now.

 

[nsaspook]

I was looking for an explanation of the European model people are talking about. It is reputed to be the most accurate. I found this page.

To quote from the article:

"Now, you may be wondering, "Why is the official forecast so far to the left, when all of the other models had moved east?" The answer is the European model. This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations."

I normally don't watch TV, but I do when there's something this important going on. I have yet to see anyone point out differences between the models and explain why they differ. I might have missed it, but I've been watching for many hours.

People in authority are making decisions based on these models. This would seem to be an extremely important issue, given that so many lives, not to mention property and money, are at stake! Seems like a good area for a PhD thesis for someone who is qualified.

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...ost-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/

They were warned the US models would give inferior forecasts.

http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/#_prSAMDYQmqV

Florian Pappenberger, the director of forecasts at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England, said at his agency, there are cases where the model is tinkered with and the results backslide in accuracy rather than taking a step forward.

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...e-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurricane-irma/

 

[Borg]

At least one Key West cam is still functioning this morning.

 

[Spinnor]

At least one Key West cam is still functioning this morning.

Strange, the track puts the eye almost over the above with highest winds at 130mph. Winds in the webcam don't look any where near that severe.

Google maps puts the eye(?), 24.4n 81.5w, 20miles south of Key West at 7am.

 

[Borg]

Strange, the track puts the eye almost over the above with highest winds at 130mph. Winds in the webcam don't look any where near that severe.

I noticed that as well. Maybe the eye is directly overhead right now?
Edit: Looks like that one is down as well. The YouTube page returns a four hour video and it loses the signal halfway through the video.

 

[nsaspook]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp

 

[Spinnor]

Can still see the sidewalk somewhere in Key West,



Very sturdy trees.

 

[Spinnor]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp

Those satellites have a great view,

 

[Apple_Mango]

oh my gosh, that's so terrible.

 

[jim hardy]

I pray it stays over land and weakens.

Son is on his boat in Jacksonville - middle of engine rebuild so he towed it to a sheltered arm of St John's river

"Young Man and the Sea" ?I hope his anchor holds !

old jim

 

[nsaspook]

https://poweroutage.us/Area/State/Florida

The last GOES track has Irma headed for Orlando on a direct north heading unless it does a NW turn real soon.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weat...-irma-orlando-area-impact-20170910-story.html

 

[nsaspook]

Best sign during Hurricane Irma. Very effective.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

It's been a while since I was very active on PF. Happy to have some time now to participate. I notice that now there are ads. At least I don't remember those from before.

I wonder if the following ad for Plenty of Fish which showed up on some posts about Irma is based on some algorithm. Probably it is. I think they don't select the ads at random.

Maybe it grabbed the keywords hurricane, Irma, European model, Florida, and webcams, and the algorithm decided these posts are by guys looking for a date. Also "plenty of fish" fits the ocean theme.

https://imgur.com/a/7sL7G

 

[Spinnor]

Best sign during Hurricane Irma. Very effective.

That guy is great, beautiful language that is "spoken" by most who can't speak?