US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Ivan Seeking]

I'm waiting to see how many pledged delegates she makes.

California has the "62.5% rule". In any county where the winner does not get 62.5% of the vote, the delegates are shared equally. If Clinton won every county by the same 52-42 margin, she would end up with the same number of pledged delegates as Obama.

To me the most significant factor was her pull with Latinos. It seems that even Kennedy couldn't break this bond.

She also did very well with young voters.

It is odd: I would love to see Obama win, but suddenly I am convinced that there is no way that he will, so I can't get too excited about the voting. I am all but certain that Hillary will be the next President and I expect to see a Clinton-Obama ticket.

If it comes down to a close race, which appears to be the case, then the superdelegates will decide the election. In that case the Clinton machine wins.

 

[lisab]

To me the most significant factor was her pull with Latinos. It seems that even Kennedy couldn't break this bond.

She also did very well with young voters.

It is odd: I would love to Obama win, but suddenly I am convinced that there is no way that he will, so I can't get too excited about the voting. I am all but certain that Hillary will be the next President and I expect to see a Clinton-Obama ticket.

If it comes down to a close race, which appears to be the case, then the superdelegates will decide the election. In that case the Clinton machine wins.

I wish the Dems would get rid of superdelegates!

But as far as who will win the candidacy, it's far from over. It could even be undecided right up to the convention. But even if that happens I don't expect to see a Clinton-Obama (or vice-versa) ticket. Sad to say, there are people who would never vote for a woman, and others who would never vote for a black man. Why run a ticket that would exclude the union of those groups?

I don't see Clinton winning against McCain. Elections are decided by Independents, and McCain will pull more of those votes than Clinton.

But I think Obama could get a significant slice of the Independents' votes. And some Republican cross-overs as well - I don't see Clinton getting any of those (despite Ann Coulter's endorsement!).

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I think you are missing the obvious point: With Obama on the ticket, the dems will pull McCains votes. There will be tremendous pressure on Obama to help ensure that this happens.

I have never seen so much enthusiasm for one, much less two dem candidates - not since Kennedy.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

This may be the most important stat of all from last night. Hillary and Obama each got far more votes than McCain did; I think by about 5 million to 3 million.

 

[BobG]

I think you are missing the obvious point: With Obama on the ticket, the dems will pull McCains votes. There will be tremendous pressure on Obama to help ensure that this happens.

I have never seen so much enthusiasm for one, much less two dem candidates - not since Kennedy.

I don't think many voters care who the Vice Presidential candidate is outside one key state or another. Otherwise, how could you explain Spiro Agnew and Dan Quayle?

Of course, the exception would be McCain. Voters might not vote for McCain because they like his VP nominee, but with his age and health, I imagine he could pick a VP that would positively terrify voters.

Which makes the current status of the Republican race hard to explain. McCain supporters in West Virginia team with Huckabee supporters to deny Romney a victory. Huckabee trashes Romney constantly and never says a bad word about McCain (although, to be fair, just about every candidate hates Romney). The Republican establishment is more scared of Huckabee than they are McCain.

An interesting note: Huckabee became Lt Governor because the governor moved to White House, elevating Clinton's Lt Gov to Governor. Huckabee moved from Lt Governor to Governor when the Governor (Clinton's replacement) had to resign due to the Whitewater scandal. Replacing a deceased McCain as President would just be the next logical step in Huckabee's career.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I don't think many voters care who the Vice Presidential candidate is outside one key state or another. Otherwise, how could you explain Spiro Agnew and Dan Quayle?

Don't you remember, Dan Quayle is like Kennedy! BushI was just riding Reagans tail.

Unless you have someone like Reagan who is 100% electable on his own, the VP can be critical - there are even standards for who to pick [which I'm sure that you know]. In a divisive race like this I think Obama would be critical to victory. And I for one am willing to assume that no one as smart as Hillary would task someone as smart as Obama with the typical mundain duties of VP. I would expect him to play an active role in the admin.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Did you all hear the crowd go nuts when Wolf Blitzer suggested the Dream Team?

Frankly I think the dems would be nuts to pass on this opportunity. Davie Gergen even suggested that this is a real liablity for Obama because the voters will see the opportunity to get two for the price of one... well, if we include Bill we get three for one. And I see no way that an Obama-Clinton ticket would work.

 

[denverdoc]

I don't think many voters care who the Vice Presidential candidate is outside one key state or another. Otherwise, how could you explain Spiro Agnew and Dan Quayle?

Of course, the exception would be McCain. Voters might not vote for McCain because they like his VP nominee, but with his age and health, I imagine he could pick a VP that would positively terrify voters.

Which makes the current status of the Republican race hard to explain. McCain supporters in West Virginia team with Huckabee supporters to deny Romney a victory. Huckabee trashes Romney constantly and never says a bad word about McCain (although, to be fair, just about every candidate hates Romney). The Republican establishment is more scared of Huckabee than they are McCain.

An interesting note: Huckabee became Lt Governor because the governor moved to White House, elevating Clinton's Lt Gov to Governor. Huckabee moved from Lt Governor to Governor when the Governor (Clinton's replacement) had to resign due to the Whitewater scandal. Replacing a deceased McCain as President would just be the next logical step in Huckabee's career.

Agreed, McCain will want to allay any fears he isn't conservative/religious enough. The Huckster might work, if he could talk Huck into it. There tho is a fine line, none of the evangelicals is likely to jump parties, and McCain must be careful not to alienate the moderate reps/independents who might be seriously torn.

 

[turbo]

Now that Obama and Clinton are in a statistical dead-heat, this would be an opportune time for Edwards to endorse Obama in return for the VP slot. That pairing could be hard to beat in the general election. A southern white, a northern black, both with some progressive ideas and none of Clinton's baggage.

 

[denverdoc]

Turbo,

I like that idea much better than so-called dream team, as Obama notes, Clinton is a smaller subset of Obama's when it comes to votes from the middle. I see that he may actually be on top after yesterday when all is said and done, and certainly not trailing by 90 or more delegates .

 

[Astronuc]

Brokered convention would be a headache
Commentary: Democratic nominee faces issues larger than politics

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With the fight for the Democratic nomination still unresolved, more talk is circulating about the possibility that the contest could continue to the convention this August.
. . . .
Since the nominating process was turned over to voters after the chaos of the 1968 Democratic nomination, there has never been a true, multiple-ballot "brokered" convention. But a few times it's come close. The case study that gets the most attention these days is the struggle for the 1976 Republican ticket between President Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan, who was at that time the former California governor.

I think the conventions and the voting in November will be very interesting.

 

[lisab]

I think the conventions and the voting in November will be very interesting.

Like the Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times."

(I know it isn't really Chinese. Still, it's a pretty good curse, as curses go.)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I know it isn't really Chinese.

祝你生活在有趣的時代

Now it is.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Well, it was just reported on CNN that Hillary loaned her campaign 5 million dollars and workers are being asked to go without pay. Obama is simply raising too much money!

Wow! ...the internet.

Between this and the Romney disaster, the notion of buying the election through personal wealth seems to go right out the window. But there is still Bloomberg...

 

[lisab]

Well, it was just reported on CNN that Hillary loaned her campaign 5 million dollars and workers are being asked to go without pay. Obama is simply raising too much money!

Wow! ...the internet.

Between this and the Romney disaster, the notion of buying the election through personal wealth seems to go right out the window. But there is still Bloomberg...

So they're dipping into their own pockets...that tells me they're a bit worried. I think I'll send Obama some $$.

It's getting late in the game if Bloomberg is going to get in. He's not well-known outside of New England, and the election is now just 9 months away.

 

[denverdoc]

I saw that, and that she can casually borrow 5 M for her campaign while saying she is putting her money where her mouth is, let's me know she is running scared. In response I gave MoveOn 50 as in fifty dollars today for Obama. I urge other supporters to consider likewise. I know this is on the edge of propriety but I feel very strongly about this being a badly needed potential turning point in american politics.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I've sent $100 to Obama and I'm going to send more tonight.

 

[denverdoc]

This is my rationale--money, plain and simple will dictate the second half of the primary. I'll be the first to admit that in my younger and dumber says, I have voted on name recognition alone. This is the sole edge Ms Clinton has, and the results are proving it--the more time and exposure B. Obama has, the greater the likilihood he has of winning. Well I trust enough in the mind of the average american, that given data, they will make the right choice, even juries. And this is where the atty in Ms Clinton is making me mad. She wants to usurp the process with a quick kill now. These hopes have been dashed headlong into a concrete abutment with yesterday's results, but will certainly reemerge in the coming weeks, and heaven help us with a coup by superdelegates at the convention.

 

[Gokul43201]

I expect to see a Clinton-Obama ticket.

I just don't see this happening!

Besides, Obama is going to hand it to Hillary in the remaining couple dozen states. A super duper Tuesday was the worst thing that could happen to Obama. It didn't give him any time to get people in all these states to get to know him. Given more one-on-one time, Obama will cream Hillary...and she knows this. So the slime will start to fly now. If you thought the fighting so far was dirty, you ain't seen nothin' yet!

Obama just took the lead again, with pledged delegates. If you count the supers, Hillary is up by 80-odd.

Is it rare for the superdelegates to jump ship?

 

[binzing]

I sure hope that people on this forum aren't the types that ask questions like "Do they speak English in New Mexico?" or the telephone operators that tell you New Mexico is an international call.

 

[binzing]

Clinton's environmental claims are BS, she such a hypocrite, she's accepted the most funding from oil companies for her campaign than any other the other (original) candidates.

 

[hserse]

Please note where she's getting her campaign contribution from and where Obama is getting his from and she's talking about tackling against lobbyists and special interests.

Loaning $5 millions of her money into the campaign. Personally, that's a lot of money. I honestly don't know how it works, will she get her money back whether if she win or loose or is like a gamble... Please help explain.

Or was it a ploy to let the media and voters to think she's very compassionate and dedicate to her cause.

If she's this dedicated and compassionated that she tears up, why don't she just contribute to it, it would probably be tax deductable- a donation to your cause. After all, I know she'll earn it back it a few years.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I sure hope that people on this forum aren't the types that ask questions like "Do they speak English in New Mexico?" or the telephone operators that tell you New Mexico is an international call.

Heh, most people here are somewhere between undergrad and Ph.D.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

David Brooks pointed out tonight that given the close race between C and O, and being a winner-take-all territory, it is conceivable that Puerto Rico could decide the race!

 

[Astronuc]

Please note where she's getting her campaign contribution from and where Obama is getting his from and she's talking about tackling against lobbyists and special interests.

Loaning $5 millions of her money into the campaign. Personally, that's a lot of money. I honestly don't know how it works, will she get her money back whether if she win or loose or is like a gamble... Please help explain.

Or was it a ploy to let the media and voters to think she's very compassionate and dedicate to her cause.

If she's this dedicated and compassionated that she tears up, why don't she just contribute to it, it would probably be tax deductable- a donation to your cause. After all, I know she'll earn it back it a few years.

The fact that Clinton is 'loaning' the money would seem to indicate an expectation of receiving it back, which would be contingent on the campaign receiving donations to cover the loan and all expenses. Clinton could conceivably cover her loan, but then she's accumulated that $5 million and more over the last 7 years. I seem to remember they had little money when they left the White House because of Bill's legal bills.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

It's getting late in the game if Bloomberg is going to get in. He's not well-known outside of New England, and the election is now just 9 months away.

Some individuals in NY have heard of him.

 

[binzing]

Yes, Ivan, it mas more of a joke than anything serious, but I have seen examples very close or worse than that.

 

[BobG]

I just don't see this happening!

Besides, Obama is going to hand it to Hillary in the remaining couple dozen states. A super duper Tuesday was the worst thing that could happen to Obama. It didn't give him any time to get people in all these states to get to know him. Given more one-on-one time, Obama will cream Hillary...and she knows this. So the slime will start to fly now. If you thought the fighting so far was dirty, you ain't seen nothin' yet!

Obama just took the lead again, with pledged delegates. If you count the supers, Hillary is up by 80-odd.

Is it rare for the superdelegates to jump ship?

I could see an Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama ticket happening if the animosity gets high enough and the race stays close enough. If you wind up going into the convention with two candidates having battled through six months of dirty fighting and still in a dead heat, a combined ticket might be the only way to get any sort of unified Democratic Party ready for the November election.

Superdelegates are governors, congressmen, etc (policiticians) and their votes are not secret. They'll vote whichever way helps their own political career the most or at least hurts it the least. The Clintons have established some important ties with many of the superdelegates and violating those ties would have some ramifications for those that owe the Clintons political debts. On the other hand, voting for Clinton at the convention when your district and/or state voted 85% for Obama isn't a very smart political move either.

In other words, they'll switch in a heartbeat depending on which way the wind blows the strongest. Edit: I'd make three exceptions. Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bill Clinton also happen to be superdelegates. I think you can safely bet on Obama and Hillary not changing their vote, no matter what.

 

[Evo]

Just on the news, according to 3 GOP sources, Romney is withdrawing.

 

[BobG]

Smart move. No sense blowing all his money this year when he'll be the front runner for the nomination in 2012 or 2016.

It would have probably been even smarter if Huckabee dropped out first. Huckabee still has a chance to set himself up as the candidate of 2012 or 2016 in place of Romney.

And Huckabee could be a lot tougher next time around. In spite of some of his strange positions, he was rated one of the top 5 governors in the country (something Romney can't claim). In 4 or 8 years with the backing of the Republican establishment, his record will have more importance than some of the things he's been saying this campaign.

 

[Gokul43201]

On the other hand, voting for Clinton at the convention when your district and/or state voted 85% for Obama isn't a very smart political move either.

In other words, they'll switch in a heartbeat depending on which way the wind blows the strongest.

Thanks Bob! This is what I felt but wanted to have confirmed. As of now, I don't see too many of Clinton's supers likely to switch sides - maybe a small handful from places like Minnesota, Alaska, Kansas or Idaho, where Obama won over 70% of the vote.

Also, why haven't we seen any substantial updates to the pledged delegate counts over the past day or so? California and Colorado are still not moving past the early numbers (which was mostly the supers). Looks like there's still hundreds of delegates left to be awarded from Tuesday's results. What are they waiting for?

 

[lisab]

Just on the news, according to 3 GOP sources, Romney is withdrawing.

He only won the states where he used to live. Guess he realized too late that he really should have moved around more before running for president.

 

[Gokul43201]

Scores are filled in up to Florida (Prev. Total below).

Please copy the points table and enter in your own scores from Tuesday: 2 points for every correct winner. The maximum score from Dems is 42 and from Reps is 38. We should wait a little longer for NM to be called. I've entered my own score and lisa's as well, since she's new to the game.

Use this for reference, if you don't already know the results by heart.

State ↓ 	  Dem↓       % ↓    # Delegates↓ 	Rep↓     %↓ # Delegates↓ 	

Alabama 	 Obama 	    56% 	20 	Mike Huckabee 	41% 		
Alaska (C) 	 Obama 	    75% 	9 	Mitt Romney 				
Arizona 	 Clinton    51% 	26 	John McCain 	48% 	50 	
Arkansas 	 Clinton    73% 	23 	Mike Huckabee 	62% 		
California 	 Clinton    53% 	42 	John McCain 	44% 		
Colorado (C) 	 Obama 	    67% 	13 	Mitt Romney 	57% 		
Connecticut 	 Obama 	    51% 	26 	John McCain 	52% 	27 	
Delaware 	 Obama 	    53% 	9 	John McCain 	45% 	18 	
Georgia 	 Obama 	    67% 	27 	Mike Huckabee 	34% 	69 	
Idaho (C) 	 Obama 	    79% 	15 				
Illinois 	 Obama 	    65% 	83 	John McCain 	47% 		
Kansas† (C) 	 Obama 	    74% 	23 				
Massachusetts 	 Clinton    56% 	54 	Mitt Romney 	51% 		
Minnesota (C) 	 Obama 	    67% 	48 	Mitt Romney 	42% 		
Missouri 	 Obama 	    49% 	30 	John McCain 	33% 	58 	
New Jersey 	 Clinton    54% 	51 	John McCain 	55% 	52 	
New Mexico (C) 		*		*		*	
New York 	 Clinton    57% 	127 	John McCain 	51% 	101 	
North Dakota (C) Obama 	    61% 	8 	Mitt Romney 	36% 	8 	
Oklahoma 	 Clinton    55% 	24 	John McCain 	37% 	32 	
Tennessee 	 Clinton    54% 	34 	Mike Huckabee 	34% 	21 	
Utah 	         Obama 	    57% 	14 	Mitt Romney 	88% 	36

Points Table:

          Tuesday    Prev. Total  New total
BobG        ?             51         ?
Gokul       62            50        112
Ivan        ?             50         ?
Astronuc    ?             43         ?
Evo         ?             37         ?
Art         ?             35         ?       
lisab       54            0         54

MT and WV were closed conventions and do not count.

 

[Astronuc]

Just on the news, according to 3 GOP sources, Romney is withdrawing.

Wow!

AP is reporting that Romney is out.

McCain seals GOP nod as Romney suspends
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080207/ap_on_el_pr/romney

WASHINGTON - John McCain effectively sealed the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday as chief rival Mitt Romney suspended his faltering presidential campaign. "I must now stand aside, for our party and our country," Romney told conservatives.

"If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror," Romney told the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.

Romney's decision leaves McCain as the top man standing in the GOP race, with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul far behind in the delegate hunt. It was a remarkable turnaround for McCain, who some seven months ago was barely viable, out of cash and losing staff. The four-term Arizona senator, denied his party's nomination in 2000, was poised to succeed George W. Bush as the GOP standard-bearer.

Earlier this morning:

February 7, 2008
Obama and Clinton Brace for Long Run
By PATRICK HEALY
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/us/politics/07campaign.html

With no breakout winner in Tuesday’s Democratic primaries, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama on Wednesday began fortifying for a drawn-out nomination fight, with Mrs. Clinton disclosing that she had lent her campaign $5 million while Mr. Obama raised $3 million online in a single day and rejected calls for more debates.

The Republican candidates were more focused on the short term after Senator John McCain’s strong performance on Tuesday: Mr. McCain canceled a trip to Germany in order to try to seal up the nomination in the next few contests, while Mitt Romney huddled with advisers and signaled that he would stay in the race.

While Mr. McCain moved far ahead in the total number of nominating delegates, with 689 compared with 156 for Mike Huckabee and 133 for Mr. Romney, Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton were in a narrower and more complicated delegate battle, with both camps claiming a lead based on their own analysis of Tuesday’s vote.

Mrs. Clinton had the overall lead of delegates and so-called superdelegates — Democrats who are governors, senators and party leaders, according to an analysis by The New York Times. Mrs. Clinton had 892 delegates and Mr. Obama 716; the Democratic nomination requires support from 2,025 delegates. The Times counts only delegates that have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences.

 

[BobG]

Scores are filled in up to Florida (Prev. Total below).

Please copy the points table and enter in your own scores from Tuesday: 2 points for every correct winner. The maximum Score from Dems is 42 and from Reps is 38. We should wait a little longer for NM to be called. I've entered my own score and lisa's as well, since she's new to the game.

Use this for reference, if you don't already know the results by heart.

Points Table:

          Tuesday    Prev. Total  New total
BobG       60             51        111
Gokul       62            50        112
Ivan        ?             50         ?
Astronuc    ?             43         ?
Evo         ?             37         ?
Art         ?             35         ?       
lisab       54            0          54

MT and WV were closed conventions and do not count.

60 points for me. Nice to toss out the states I got wrong.