US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN projects Romney the winner.

 

[Gokul43201]

Michigan Results:

Dem:
1. Clinton 55%
2. Uncommitted 40%
3. Kucinich 4%
4. Dodd 0.5%
5. Gravel 0.3%

Rep:
1. Romney 39%
2. McCain 30%
3. Huckabee 16%
4. Paul 6%
5. Thompson 4%
6. Giuliani 3%

I'm going to award points only for the Republican Primary results for this one.

Points Table:

            Michigan     Total
Gokul          6          27
Ivan           6          27
Astronuc       6          25 
Evo            6          25
BobG           4          24
Coin                      15
Art            4          12
Maxwell                   8

Next up: Nevada and South Carolina (R) - Jan 19

 

[BobG]

Mike Gravel has to be crushed. Only 3 candidates on the ballot and Gravel finishes 5th. With only 0.3%, he could wind up with negative votes on a recount.

And Giuliani drops to 1-2 against Ron Paul (Edit: Ooops, on the final count, Giuliani manages to edge out Paul so he's 2-1 against Ron Paul).

The thing that amazed me was the number of people that voted in the Democratic Primary. The delegates don't count and only one major candidate was in the race, but around 600,000 voted in the Democratic Primary as opposed to around 800,000 in the Republican Primary. I would have expected that to run around 200,000/1,200,000.

That a made a big difference in the Republican Primay. In 2000, Republicans were a minority in their own primary. In 2008, Republicans made up around 67% of voters in the Republican Primary. The percentage of independents voting in the Republican Primary was down from 2000 as well.

How in the world does the Democratic Primary pull in almost as many voters as the Republican Primary when the Democratic Primary was meaningless? I don't think that bodes well for Republicans.

The other big factor was that Michigan is shaped liked a mitten. I predict Mitt will win every state shaped like a mitten.

 

[BobG]

As for setting up for Super Tuesday, estimated top spenders so far are:

1. Romney - $53 million
2. Obama - $44 million
3. Clinton - $40 mil
4. Giuliani - $31 mil
5. McCain - $30 mil
6. Edwards - $18 mil
7. Richardson (out)
8. Dodd (out)
9. Biden (out)
10. Thompson - $6 mil
11. Paul - $3 mil
12. Kucinich - $2 mil
13. Hunter - $2 mil
14. Huckabee - $2 mil
15. Gravel - $ 0.3 mil
16. Keyes- $0 mil

Can these possibly be up to date and reliable? I know Huckabee's been running his campaign on the cheap, but surely he isn't being outspent by Paul, Kucinich, and Hunter.

Money left in their campaign funds (I know this isn't up to date because it doesn't include 4th quarter fundraising which hasn't been released yet).

1. Clinton - $50 mil
2. Obama - $36 mil
3. Giuliani - $17 mil
4. Edwards - $12 mil
5. Romney - $9 mil
6. Thompson - $7 mil
7. Paul - $5 mil
8. McCain - $3 mil
9. Huckabee - $0.7 mil
10. Kucinich - $0.3 mil
11. Hunter - $0.1 mil
12. Gravel - has to bum bus fare back home
*excludes candidates that have dropped out

I doubt these are very accurate, but accurate enough to get an idea of the candidates' strategies and potential problems. Money's important, but it's only important you're not totally swamped by your opponents money (well, except in the case of Huckabee vs. Romney - maybe you can't buy me love).

 

[BobG]

South Carolina
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

Nevada
Republican:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Thompson

Democrat:
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards

Most .... political ad in South Carolina: Tied Up
Didn't see that coming: Reagan Democrat
Mmmmm, good!: Fried Squirrel
The BlendTec tested endorser: HuckChuckFacts

How is it that Mike Huckabee succeeds as the candidate most likely to be the creation of a Saturday Night Live skit?

 

[Gokul43201]

South Carolina
Rep:
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

I'm going against the markets on #3.

Nevada
Rep:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Giuliani

Dem:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Going against conventional wisdom (Huck) for Rep#3 and Dem#1,#2. For the Dems, I'm expecting the outcome of the Teachers' Union lawsuit to have some small negative blowback for Clinton which would not have shown up in recent polling.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

South Carolina
Rep:
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

Nevada
Rep:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

Dem:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

 

[Art]

South Carolina
Rep:
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

Nevada
Rep:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

Dem:
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards

 

[denverdoc]

Seems like Romney has won Nevada. As a as a former Utahn with some knowledge of Moromon weirdness, anyone know why he moved to Mass with such a inheritance of politacal bounty in Mich? Too midwest for a guy with presidential leanings early on and wanting to mitigate a Midwestern/LDS background?

 

[Astronuc]

South Carolina
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

From what I've heard this morning, it could be

1. Huckabee
2. McCain
3. Thompson

In the south, it seems Huckabee and McCain will have a close contest with the possibility with Thompson edging out Romney.


I think Romney gets Nevada, and the race between Obama and Clinton is close. I guess Edwards will hang in until SuperTuesday.

 

[BobG]

Wow! Nevada is going to be close for 2nd place. Ron Paul is actually going to pull out a top 3 finish?! And we might have to start keeping track of how often Giuliani loses to Duncan Hunter!

 

[Astronuc]

Follow the action.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=NV


Obama takes an early commanding lead, with only 3% of precincts reporting.
So far it's Obama, Clinton, Edwards.

On the Republican side, Romney leads the pack followed by McCain and Paul. It would interesting to see if Thompson gains on or surpasses Huckabee.

Apparently, Romney's message on economic growth resonates with folks in Nevada, and other states.

 

[Evo]

Shoot, I forgot to vote and it wouldn't be fair to vote now.

 

[WheelsRCool]

Hillary and Romney have won Nevada for their respective parties.

 

[Astronuc]

According to CNN - 98% precincts reporting in the Nevada race.

Romney 22,313 52% 18
Paul 5,742 13% 4
McCain 5,558 13% 4
Huckabee 3,500 8% 2
Thompson 3,475 8% 2
Giuliani 1,884 4% 1
Hunter 879 2% 0

Thompson came close to Huckabee, and Paul edged McCain out of second place.

Clinton, Obama and Edwards place top 3 in the Democratic race.

It'll be interesting to see if Edwards throws his support behind Clinton or Obama after SuperTuesday, or perhaps waits until the convention.


In SC, McCain takes an early lead followed by Huckabee, Romney and Thompson.

 

[Gokul43201]

Nevada: Wow!

And Ron Paul has a blimp!

SC: Looks like #1 = McCain, #2 = Huckabee, #3 = Thompson or Romney

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#SC

The exit polls show essentially the same results as above (Romney with a statistically insignificant lead over Thompson in the exit polls).

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Go Ron Paul! I love it!

 

[Evo]

Go Ron Paul! I love it!

Ivan, I hope you really wouldn't want this guy in charge of a country, any country. But, as we know, his inablity to get out of single digits THANKFULLY means he's not a viable candidate.

It's no surprise that bible thumping Huckabee wouldn't go over in Nevada. I'm surprised about McCain though, he's the most non-frightening of the Repubicans. Hard core Republican blogs are really bad mouthing McCain because he is too liberal.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

He is into double digits.

I fail to see how anyone including Paul could be worse than what we've had. So given a choice between Paul and someone like Bush, I would vote for Paul. We need many many more people like him and his supporters. He is like a breath of fresh air.

 

[Gokul43201]

Interesting Stat: Among all the states with completed primaries/caucuses, Clinton has not beaten Obama on the delegate count in any of them. They are tied in Iowa and Nevada. And in NH, which Clinton won, she gained 1 less delegate than Obama! But the superdelegates in the states yet to come up overwhelmingly favor Clinton...so far.

 

[falc39]

It's no surprise that bible thumping Huckabee wouldn't go over in Nevada. I'm surprised about McCain though, he's the most non-frightening of the Repubicans. Hard core Republican blogs are really bad mouthing McCain because he is too liberal.

What exactly do you mean by non-frightening? I find him the most frightening out of all the republicans. He's the guy who said http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPdOg6kLG1o"

 

[Astronuc]

Interesting Stat: Among all the states with completed primaries/caucuses, Clinton has not beaten Obama on the delegate count in any of them. They are tied in Iowa and Nevada. And in NH, which Clinton won, she gained 1 less delegate than Obama! But the superdelegates in the states yet to come up overwhelmingly favor Clinton...so far.

If Clinton and Obama are essentially tied when the campaigns are approaching the convention, then I would imagine Edwards will be trying to make deals with either for support.

Now someone mentioned that Clinton seems more in touch than Obama with the issues, e.g. education, health, home economic issues, . . . . , but they both relatively equal in foreign policy matters. To me, Clinton still seems to be a Washington insider, more so than Obama, so I have to wonder upon whom Clinton will draw for Cabinet positions, particularly in Defense and State. These were areas in which Bill Clinton was rather weak. But if Obama becomes president, upon whom will he draw?

On the Republican side, Romney and Huckabee have experience as governors, and McCain and Thompson as senators.

 

[Gokul43201]

What happens, if come Convention time, there is no candidate with an overall majority?

 

[Evo]

He is into double digits.

You're right, the results I saw hadn't been updated.

Still

Among Republicans, Romney leads with 64 delegates to 21 for Huckabee, 18 for McCain, eight for former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and five for Paul, according to the CNN count. The Republican nominee needs 1,191 delegates.

I fail to see how anyone including Paul could be worse than what we've had.

You and I part ways here, I think he's just a bit more than a tad insane. Seriously, I get the impression when listening to him of the naivety of a 10 year old.

 

[Evo]

What happens, if come Convention time, there is no candidate with an overall majority?

It looks like for Republicans, it will be between McCain and Romney, but there is still the chance that the hard core Christian right will pull through for Huckabee. An interesting note with McCain leading in SC is that no Republican presidential candidate has won their party's nomination without winning the South Carolina primary.

Clinton and Obama will also be close.

 

[Astronuc]

What happens, if come Convention time, there is no candidate with an overall majority?

Well - they'll go through one round, and then negotiations start. Or the guy in third place makes a deal that puts either of the first two over the top in exchange for VP or something like that.

One local commentator mentioned 'backroom deals' with characters like the cigar smoking political advisor played by William Frawley in the Miracle on 34th St.

 

[denverdoc]

Hee, hee. I agree the normally very sane and informed Ivan seems a screw short on Paul and his loonie toon policies which are absolutely bereft of either good sense or common decency.

Back on topic: One thing to remember about Nevada is it is serious Mormon country and many of the casino workers ironically enuf (also overrepresented here by the caucas methodology) are LDS.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You guys just need to catch up!

 

[Gokul43201]

Well - they'll go through one round, and then negotiations start. Or the guy in third place makes a deal that puts either of the first two over the top in exchange for VP or something like that.

One local commentator mentioned 'backroom deals' with characters like the cigar smoking political advisor played by William Frawley in the Miracle on 34th St.

I've only heard about this in similar, somewhat vague terms. When was the last time this happened?

I can easily see this happening in at least one party, if not both. For the Republicans, if McCain and Romney emerge as forerunners, it looks like Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson and Paul have enough money and support to take away at least 20% of the delegates. Run any combination you like, among those 6 Reps, and it's hard to imagine that the bottom 4 don't carry at least 20% of the delegate count. And that makes it very hard for anyone to beat the 50% mark. Similarly, though to a lesser extent, among the Dems, there's a reasonable chance that Edwards will get over 10% of the delegates. So if Obama and Clinton remain close till the end, there may again be no majority holder. And then, after the backroom shenanigans are through, Edwards, with his crucial 10% could come out better positioned than the loser among Obama-Clinton!

 

[Evo]

Which election was it that Ralph Nader was blamed for pulling just enough votes to alter the election? Supposedly Bush might not have won if it wasn't for Nader taking away Democratic votes. Don't know if there is any truth to that. I kind of equate Paul's attempt to Nader's, so he might help pull enough Republican votes to ensure a Democratic win.

I think it might have been this? Whatever happened to the "Green Party"?

http://www.nvri.org/library/cases/Becker/beckercomplaint.shtml

Dr Phil voted for Nader, I wonder if he is voting for Ron Paul?

 

[Gokul43201]

Having sold his soul to the Republican party for the Primaries, I don't think Paul will be allowed to run in the General Election as a third party candidate.

PS: Dr. Phil is probably too busy to vote this year. His current project - a daunting one - is to see if he can actually make Britney more of a mess than she already is.

 

[Evo]

Having sold his soul to the Republican party for the Primaries, I don't think Paul will be allowed to run in the General Election as a third party candidate.

Not even if misguided celebrities endorse him? He doesn't have any celebrity endorsements, does he? Pretty sad if you can't get a celebrity endorsement.

PS: Dr. Phil is probably too busy to vote this year. His current project - a daunting one - is to see if he can actually make Britney more of a mess than she already is.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I don't know who to feel sorrier for: Britney or Dr Phil.

This election is really quite fun. I would take any of the candidates over Bush so already we have progress. But of the bunch I think Huckabee is the most dangerous. He openly professes his desire to put God in the Constitution. And we still could end up with enough neo-cons to allow a continuation of this insanity.

The obvious point that you all miss about Paul is that even if elected, he could never do what he says. The Constitution that he defends with such vigor [the reason that I like him] would not allow it because Congress wouldn't allow it. But to argue for a return to Constitutional law, such as requiring that Congress should be the body to declare war, is a push in the right direction. And if you want to talk about insanity, then please see all threads on King Bush and his policies. This is all a result of straying from the Constitution. There is even a reasonable chance that the election was not legitimate - the ultimate failure of a democratic state!

People had better listen to Ron Paul. I for one no longer believe that our government is legitimate. And I know that many people feel the same way.

Has anyone else been following the voting machine fiasco? What a joke! We will have no way to know if the election in SC is legit because there is no paper trail.

 

[falc39]

Has anyone else been following the voting machine fiasco? What a joke! We will have no way to know if the election in SC is legit because there is no paper trail.

I've been following it too, but have been too lazy/tired to post about it (since I already posted quite a bit for the NH concerns). I think people even found out it goes against SC state constitution, yet they still used machines that count votes in private!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REfVcc-4Zrk"

 

[Ivan Seeking]

And that is just the tip of the iceberg! Indeed the heart and soul of this country - the democratic process itself - is at stake if not largely lost already. And Ron Paul is the only candidate who speaks to these abominations of the Constitution. That is why people are listening and donating.

Naivety is thinking that these abuses can continue without consequences far worse than Bush's illegal government.