US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Ivan Seeking]

• "My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right?"
• "We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California."

My interpretation: "These races have gone into June in the past, and maybe Obama will be assassinated, so I should stay in." Other than this interpretation, the two comments are a perfect non sequitur to me. Am I missing something?

She has to drop out - and now!

I can accept that this was just a flukey reference. But it don't matter, she's already gone. Apparently Bill has been trying to cut deals to get her on as VP, but one pundit mentioned today that this slip by Hillary may be an out for Obama. At the least she is hoping that Obama will pay her debt.

I know a couple who I suspect are closet racists - can't let go of their upbringing but too nice to admit it. I nearly laughed out loud when they told me that they would vote for Obama, but they don't want to be responsible for getting a man killed. Now THAT is one finely tuned rationalization!

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Now THAT is one finely tuned rationalization!

I'm sure his blackness will make it much easier to assasinate him than all those white guys that came before him.

 

[Poop-Loops]

I know a couple who I suspect are closet racists - can't let go of their upbringing but too nice to admit it. I nearly laughed out loud when they told me that they would vote for Obama, but they don't want to be responsible for getting a man killed. Now THAT is one finely tuned rationalization!

I've heard this same rationalization from black people, actually.

 

[lisab]

I'm sure his blackness will make it much easier to assasinate him than all those white guys that came before him.

I'm not following you here...what do you mean?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I've heard this same rationalization from black people, actually.

Back when Obama was "too white"; or is he still too white for some?

 

[Poop-Loops]

No, not because he's too white, but because apparently they really didn't want him to get shot.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

So we can conclude that they don't ever want to see a black President because it would be too dangerous?

Sorry, but that sounds like boloney to me. I don't believe it. In any case, Obama is pulling as much as 98% of the black vote, so it seems that most voting blacks are willing to take the risk.

 

[Poop-Loops]

So we can conclude that they don't ever want to see a black President because it would be too dangerous?

Sorry, but that sounds like boloney to me. I don't believe it. In any case, Obama is pulling as much as 98% of the black vote, so it seems that most voting blacks are willing to take the risk.

1) It's spelled Bologna.

2) You're going to say something like "It's spelt spelt" aren't you?

3) I hardly took a poll of "the black community". It's just people I happened to ask or heard talking.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

I'm not following you here...what do you mean?

Sorry if the lack of smiley face confused you. I was being sarcastic. I'm sure there were plenty of people who would have tried to assasinate many a president but the attempts are rather rare because presidential security is pretty intense. Even if there would be a greater likelihood of someone attempting to assasinate Obama I doubt they will be very successful. And the mere fact that he's black making him a more likely target is hugely debatable in and of itself.

 

[BobG]

Sorry if the lack of smiley face confused you. I was being sarcastic. I'm sure there were plenty of people who would have tried to assasinate many a president but the attempts are rather rare because presidential security is pretty intense. Even if there would be a greater likelihood of someone attempting to assasinate Obama I doubt they will be very successful. And the mere fact that he's black making him a more likely target is hugely debatable in and of itself.

The extra protection (or early protection in this case) hasn't been because of increased risk - it's because of increased significance.

Having any Presidential candidate assassinated or even wounded (as in the case of Wallace) is horrible once they actually become a legitimate candidate. But, having the first black candidate with a serious chance of becoming President or having the first woman candidate with a serious chance of becoming President assassinated would carry a lot more historical significance than having a white male candidate assassinated.

Hence the taboo on even mentioning assassination of any candidate - present, past, or future - for the duration of this campaign.

 

[G01]

Olbermann was VERY pissed at Clinton for this remark. He makes some good points in this comment of his. Basically, he points out reasons why, even though she didn't intend to suggest that something bad may happen to her opponent, her comment was still unacceptable:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24797758/

 

[Gokul43201]

The extra protection (or early protection in this case) hasn't been because of increased risk

What is your basis for this assertion?

It may be illuminating to talk in more detail about the actual threat5, vand@lism and vi0lence faced by Obama campaign volunteers, but there's a very strict no-talk policy about this in the Obama camp. The response to any press requests for information about specific events is the following blanket statement:

"After campaigning for 15 months in nearly all 50 states, Barack Obama and our entire campaign have been nothing but impressed and encouraged by the core decency, kindness, and generosity of Americans from all walks of life. The last year has only reinforced Senator Obama's view that this country is not as divided as our politics suggest."

 

[Gokul43201]

Even more blatant was Huckabee's joke, but in that case I'm more convinced that the speaker said something that was completely unintended and just poorly thought out.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8zBYx3RigI&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8CNiuyd02E&feature=related

 

[BobG]

You've got a point. No news of problems could be no news or good security done properly.

And Huckabee's comment was definitely worthy of a major apology. Regardless of what you think of Huckabee (regardless of his political positions), his "joke" was truly stupid.

 

[lisab]

You've got a point. No news of problems could be no news or good security done properly.

And Huckabee's comment was definitely worthy of a major apology. Regardless of what you think of Huckabee (regardless of his political positions), his "joke" was truly stupid.

I felt the crowd's reaction to Huckabee's "joke" was appropriate: hardly anyone really laughed (that I could tell), there was just some nervous snickering. I don't agree with Huckabee on many issues, yet he seems like an honest, affable guy. But that little joke sure was stupid.

 

[Astronuc]

It could have been Huckabee's attempt to label Obama as being overly sensitive to guns and gun issues, which of course would play well at an NRA meeting. How he stated that was stupid/assinine. I think most people would react strongly if someone else pointed a gun at them. Hopefully people at the NRA don't go around pointing guns at people. Usually one keeps a gun pointing down, and one makes sure that the chamber is empty while handling guns around people, e.g. at show.

 

[Gokul43201]

Here's an interview with David Axelrod following the RFK mention by Hillary: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24791035#24796900

I just can't imagine Wolfson, Ickes or McAuliffe being anywhere near as decent.

 

[Poop-Loops]

The extra protection (or early protection in this case) hasn't been because of increased risk - it's because of increased significance.

Having any Presidential candidate assassinated or even wounded (as in the case of Wallace) is horrible once they actually become a legitimate candidate. But, having the first black candidate with a serious chance of becoming President or having the first woman candidate with a serious chance of becoming President assassinated would carry a lot more historical significance than having a white male candidate assassinated.

Hence the taboo on even mentioning assassination of any candidate - present, past, or future - for the duration of this campaign.

Besides, McCain is old, he'll die soon anyway.

Olbermann was VERY pissed at Clinton for this remark. He makes some good points in this comment of his. Basically, he points out reasons why, even though she didn't intend to suggest that something bad may happen to her opponent, her comment was still unacceptable:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24797758/

Yeah, I couldn't stand listening to that. I saw her comment as a good, but all of this "ZOMG ASSASSINATIONS OHNOES!" that it was supposed to invoke according to Olbermann just made me raise an eye-brow.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I thought this was a great quote from Jon Meacham regarding Hillary's claim that in 1992, Bill Clinton didn't have the nomination locked until June.

MR. RUSSERT: Now, back then the Clinton campaign thought I was a mathematical genius. I knew how to add.

Jon Meacham, the fact is that Bill Clinton, at that point, had three times as many delegates as anyone else.

MR. JON MEACHAM: Right.

MR. RUSSERT: He had locked down the nomination in April of 1992.

MR. MEACHAM: Right. It is a technicality that I think probably President Reagan didn't ultimately get the number you needed until June. It's kind of irrelevant. It depends on--to use another Clintonism--what's the meaning of June?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24815500/page/2/

But I thought another very interesting point was made regarding Hillary's last-ditch effort to argue for her viability. She has already complained about misogyny while running against Democrats. And she can expect even more bias from a conservative base in the general election; even in the case of women voters, which greatly undermines any argument that she has of being the most viable candidate. But more specifically, it is highly unlikely that she would gain ground with the white male conservative vote in a general election, as she has in the primary. This means that her perceived advantage amoung this voting group evaporates.

 

[Gokul43201]

She has already complained about misogyny while running against Democrats.

This (complete argument) itself, as Gwen pointed out, is at best, incomplete. Exit polls in recent races have shown that among the respondents that admitted that the sex of the nominee was an important factor in their decision, the majority voted for Clinton. She gains more from feminist bias than she loses from misogyny. On the other hand, respondents that admitted that race was an important factor were also more likely to vote for Hillary (not in all states though; in some states, like OR, they were even). So for the most part Obama loses more from racism than he gains from black favoritism.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

This (complete argument) itself, as Gwen pointed out, is fallacious. Exit polls in recent races have shown that among the respondents that admitted that the sex of the nominee was an important factor in their decision, the majority voted for Clinton. She gains more from feminist bias than she loses from misogyny. On the other hand, respondents that admitted that race was an important factor were also more likely to vote for Hillary. So Obama loses more from racism than he gains from black favoritism.

But that was only among Democrats. Also, Democrats are not about to abandon the party for McCain - not after everything that has happened with the Bush admin. Emotions are running high right now, but come November I doubt that many will feel the same way. IMO, the complete and utter fallacy is that votes for Hillary now translate to votes for McCain in November.

 

[Gokul43201]

But that was only among Democrats. Also, Democrats are not about to abandon the party for McCain - not after everything that has happened with the Bush admin. Emotions are running high right now, but come November I doubt that many will feel the same way. IMO, the complete and utter fallacy is that votes for Hillary now translate to votes for McCain in November.

The turning point (when bitterness subsides from, for instance, feminist groups promising to campaign against Obama in the fall*) will probably be the Convention. But then again, it depends on the tone in the Convention - whether it becomes an event of coming together or a prize fight will make a huge difference.

* For instance: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23710227-2703,00.html

An Ohio-based group of Clinton supporters has announced it will actively work against Barack Obama if he becomes the nominee for the party, saying Senator Clinton has had to fight gender discrimination from party leaders and the media.

Organisers Cynthia Ruccia, 55, and Jamie Dixey, 57, say they are organising women, men, minorities, union members and others in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan - all important swing states in November - to protest at Senator Clinton's treatment.

"We have been vigilant against expressions of racism, and we are thrilled that the society has advanced that way" in accepting Barack Obama as a serious candidate, Ms Ruccia told online political magazine Politico.

"But it's been open season on women, and we feel we need to stand up and make a statement about that, because it's wrong."

In a press release, the group said: "We have a plan to campaign against the Democratic nominee. We have the (wo)manpower and the money to make our threat real. And there are millions of supporters who will back us up in the swing states. If you don't listen to our voice now, you will hear from us later."

As calls grew for Senator Clinton to quit the race, Ms Ruccia said women felt "we're being told to sit down, shut up, and get with the program".

These were the kind of crazies that I was referring to in an earlier post in this thread, a point that c-tree chose to misinterpret for comedic value.

 

[Gokul43201]

Unbelievable stuff from Fox!

and now we have what ... uh...some are reading as a suggestion that somebody knock off Osama ...uh..um..Obama ...well both if we could "

 

[lisab]

The turning point (when bitterness subsides from, for instance, feminist groups promising to campaign against Obama in the fall*) will probably be the Convention. But then again, it depends on the tone in the Convention - whether it becomes an event of coming together or a prize fight will make a huge difference.

* For instance: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23710227-2703,00.html



These were the kind of crazies that I was referring to in an earlier post in this thread, a point that c-tree chose to misinterpret for comedic value.

That's just stupid of them. The irony is that if McCain is elected, it is highly likely that Row vs. Wade will be overturned. One step forward; two steps back.

 

[Gokul43201]

That's just stupid of them. The irony is that if McCain is elected, it is highly likely that Row vs. Wade will be overturned.

That's why I called them 'crazies'.

One step forward; two steps back.

I don't really get this. How does Obama losing the general election take women one step forward?

 

[lisab]

I don't really get this. How does Obama losing the general election take women one step forward?

Sorry for the confusion - I meant if McCain wins, it will be a step back for people who believe in reproductive choice. I was referring to feminists campaigning against Obama. They worked so hard to win abortion rights, yet they're willing to lose the gains that they have worked for because they're having a hissy fit.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Unbelievable stuff from Fox!

Incredible! Right-wingers complain about patriots calling Bush a war criminal, yet the Zealot Channel broadcasts a call for the assasination of a democratic candidate.

As I have said before, these guys are enemies of the Constitution and enemies of the country.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

That's why I called them 'crazies'.

OKay, so at this point Obama pulls the Hagee vote, and McCain pulls the crazy feminist vote?

 

[chemisttree]

These were the kind of crazies that I was referring to in an earlier post in this thread, a point that c-tree chose to misinterpret for comedic value.

That's actually the funniest thing you've said yet. Obama lost WV and KY because an Ohio based group is threatening to spring into action in the fall. Brilliant!

 

[Gokul43201]

Obama lost WV and KY because an Ohio based group is threatening to spring into action in the fall.

Is there a different language I should be using to help you not misinterpret my posts? Or is this just a comprehension issue?

 

[chemisttree]

I've heard this same rationalization from black people, actually.

I've heard only one but I wouldn't be suprised if this were a more common belief.

http://mog.com/MrFrost/blog_post/143055"

 

[chemisttree]

Is there a different language I should be using to help you not misinterpret my posts? Or is this just a comprehension issue?

So you really do believe that women that vote for Hillary or that intend to protest the way she is being treated in this campaign are crazy? Wow...

 

[Gokul43201]

Edit: I'm tired of this game C-tree. I don't wish to respond to this string of repeated misinterpretations.

 

[turbo]

So you really do believe that women that vote for Hillary or that intend to protest the way she is being treated in this campaign are crazy? Wow...

Oh, gosh! She's a woman, and ladies go first? That's ridiculous. She and her surrogates have been playing the gender card all through the campaign. She voted to let Bush go to war, she lied about her Bosnia trip, she compared Obama unfavorably to McCain, she has lied repeatedly about how "electable" she is, switching metrics week by week as her nomination is less and less possible. Clinton is a monstrous ego in a pant-suit, and her supporters that intend to block Obama's nomination are crazy. Their contention that Clinton has been unfairly by the Dems have no clue what the Republicans would do to her in the general election.

 

[chemisttree]

Oh, gosh! She's a woman, and ladies go first? That's ridiculous. She and her surrogates have been playing the gender card all through the campaign.

So you believe that Geraldine Ferraro is crazy as well... I wouldn't have gone that far. Loser, yes. Crazy, no.

She voted to let Bush go to war, she lied about her Bosnia trip, she compared Obama unfavorably to McCain, she has lied repeatedly about how "electable" she is, switching metrics week by week as her nomination is less and less possible. Clinton is a monstrous ego in a pant-suit, and her supporters that intend to block Obama's nomination are crazy.

Her supporters know her record and those number almost half of all Democrats that bothered to vote. You are beginning to convince me that they are crazies! The crazy woman is going around quoting polling data! I can't remember, is that lying? The OP (Gokul's post) listed "crazy women" as one of the reasons that Obama lost WV and KY. I still haven't heard anything to substantiate that claim (so I thought he was kidding... Oh my!). Alas, he wasn't (and he continues to bring this up, btw, not me). The cracks have already formed in the Democrat base and they are widening... apparently. Perhaps, as Ivan says, the base will heal itself by election day. But I know a few things about angry women... (Pssssst! God! Don't call them 'crazy'!)

Their contention that Clinton has been (treated) unfairly by the Dems (demonstrates that they) have no clue what the Republicans would do to her in the general election.

I believe that they expect it in the general... at least that is what they have been saying.
Of course, they could be crazy...

BTW, I agree with most of what you have said about Hillary. Excellent analysis. I don't agree with how you have characterized her supporters.