US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[lisab]

I'm very surprised by that outcome. I don't see any logic in it at all.

Well, it's a compromise. As for me, I think rules are rules, and neither FL nor MI should have been seated. They knew the rules and broke them, trying to jump ahead on the calendar.

In those two states the electorate should throw out the state party leaders, in any case.

 

[Gokul43201]

I'm very surprised by that outcome. I don't see any logic in it at all.

Which outcome? Can you elaborate?

 

[BobG]

Well, it's a compromise. As for me, I think rules are rules, and neither FL nor MI should have been seated. They knew the rules and broke them, trying to jump ahead on the calendar.

In those two states the electorate should throw out the state party leaders, in any case.

For both parties, losing their "super delegates" would have been the best punishment (Repbublicans have them too; just not as many). In both parties' primaries, voters from those states lost out because they had no control of the primary calendar. For both parties, the superdelegates are elected officials and party officials from that state.

Taking away the superdelegates would have been a personal blow against the officials responsible for moving up the primaries instead of a blow against voters of that state. The voters may focus on the votes, but attendance at the National Conventions is every bit as important as how many votes a state gets to the people either allowed or prevented from attending the convention.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

I listened to a good deal of yesterday's rules committee hearing. I learned a lot that I hadn't known. For one thing, the primary date in Florida was not set by the Democrats at all. It was decided in the Florida legislature which is controlled by Republicans. In addition to the primary, there was a referendum. If the Democrats had boycotted the primary, they would have lost on the referendum.

Everyone who spoke at the hearing had lofty words to say about fairness, but in reality, it was hypocrisy. The issue being debated was not Florida and Michigan, it was Clinton and Obama. The head of the Democratic party in Florida made an impassioned plea to let the people of Florida be represented and have his state's delegates counted half (Obama's position). When he was asked if he would support his own state's delegates to be fully represented (Clinton's position), he was tongue-tied.

The Clinton position on Michigan was that it should be counted the way it went down, 73 delegates for Clinton, 55 for uncommitted, 0 for Obama. While I think that Kim Jong Il could see the logic in that, the rules committee decided to let it pass. Obama's position was that Michigan should count 64 delegates each. In other words, their votes count, but not toward the nomination. The compromise was to give Michigan half of its votes but apparently there are two ways to do that. In one method, half of Michigan's delegates would go to the convention, in the other they would all go, but they would get a half vote each. For some reason, the former would have given Clinton, 4 more, and Obama, 4 less delegates. The rules committee went with the latter and that is what Ickes was going on about when he said that 4 delegates had been hijacked. He said that Clinton had told him that she reserved the right to reopen the issue at the convention, but I wonder if she also told him to say that out loud. To me it came off as an ominous threat. And probably a pointless one. As soon as he can safely do so, Obama is going to suggest that all the Florigan delegates be counted with Michigan's uncommitted going to him. On that day hypocrites will be coming out of the walls like the cockroaches that they are. And that day may be Wednesday. I heard that there are a lot of Obama supporting superdelegates who are holding back till the last primary is over. Clinton supporting superdelegates have a strong incentive not to wait, so I don't expect an offsetting rush for her.

 

[Gokul43201]

When he was asked if he would support his own state's delegates to be fully represented (Clinton's position), he was tongue-tied.

And understandably so. Florida's votes should not have counted at all, and their voters (who are partly to blame for not kicking up this same fuss back in December) were disenfranchised in January, not on on May 31. What was decided yesterday was to hand Clinton a bunch of delegates from states that did not have legal primaries. Heck, if Clinton wanted the system rigged in her favor she would just have had to find a way to make more of these primaries where the candidates were not allowed to introduce themselves to the electorate - that would have gotten her a landslide victory.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

And understandably so. Florida's votes should not have counted at all.

The guy was representing the state of Florida.

 

[turbo]

Harold Ickes was the person most responsible for stripping MI and FL of their delegates, yet there he was yesterday whining about how their votes should be counted. The Clintons surround themselves with liars and opportunists - they ought to be pretty worried if Ickes decides to write a tell-all book.

 

[Gokul43201]

The guy was representing the state of Florida.

Actually, he was representing the Obama campaign.

But Florida should consider itself lucky that they have any say at all, given that it had been ruled that they wouldn't. So I guess he (Wexler) did a good job of representing Florida too at the hearing (probably not so good a job representing them back in Dec/Jan, but he did have a much harder task then).

 

[Gokul43201]

CNN's exit polls say Clinton will take PR by 70 to 30. I think that nets her about 35 of the 55 delegates there, giving her a lead of 15.

I'm very upset at Obama for ignoring Puerto Ricans completely! It's a shame!

 

[Gokul43201]

Did anyone catch the expression on Ickes' face when Tim Russert quoted back Ickes from late last year, saying: "Timothy, delegates nominate. Not states, not popular vote, delegates" ?

This was just after Ickes spent the last few minutes making the case that that Hillary's popular vote (including Michingan, of course) was the important number in this race.

Here's a screen capture: http://img232.imageshack.us/my.php?image=picture1dx3.png

The moneyshot comes a couple seconds after 30:30 in the video: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24918205#24918205

 

[turbo]

I watched that painful episode of MTP this morning, Gokul. Ickes' performance was gut-wrenching. He orchestrated the stripping of MI and FL delegates and bragged about telling their state Dem committees to shove off. Then yesterday, he was SO heartfelt about counting all the votes of those poor people. Of course, only the popular vote counts, so although Obama won poor, 99+% white undereducated Maine by a landslide, the Dem caucuses don't count for anything. More Clinton slime. If Obama offers Clinton a spot on the ticket, there are lots of Independents like myself that are going to take a step back from him and reconsider.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Did anyone catch the expression on Ickes' face when Tim Russert quoted back Ickes from late last year, saying: "Timothy, delegates nominate. Not states, not popular vote, delegates" ?

Yes, in particular I did notice that!

Re Turbo: Gut-wrenching is correct.

 

[turbo]

Re Turbo: Gut-wrenching is correct.

The Dems should tell Clinton to pull out, or they'll run an endless loop of her little speech saying that MI votes won't count (before she needed them for her fantasy-math). These people (Clintons, Ickes, et al) are capable of triggering real revulsion in anyone who hasn't been in a coma since the beginning of the year. Every time one of them opens their mouth, the lies fly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULxxBz-PAjg&feature=related

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Apparently, when Florigan was plutoed, their Denver hotel rooms were plutoed too. Now that they are semi-unplutoed (by the way, today is day 431 since mission accomplished on Pluto) they just called Motel 13 near Denver and asked for 300 half-rooms for Aug 25-28. The clerk is being treated for hyperventilation, but is expected to live. My money is on these delegates being bussed in every day from Florigan.

Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, Obama will clinch the nomination on Wednesday as a flood of superdelegates declare for him. Technically, Clinton does not need to quit the race as she is allowed to try and change the minds of committed superdelegates. However, she will decline to do so. Before the convention begins, Florida and Michigan delegates will be given their full votes. The message is clear, if you violate the rules, then your votes will count, but only if your influence will be zero.

 

[Evo]

I'm very upset at Obama for ignoring Puerto Ricans completely! It's a shame!

That's not his fault, he was probably told not to waste time there as Hispanics do not like Blacks and it was likely to go to Clinton.

He spent the last few days wooing Hispanics in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado which I'm sure his advisors deem more important.

More information on the Hispanic demographics and votes.

http://pewhispanic.org/

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, Obama will clinch the nomination on Wednesday as a flood of superdelegates declare for him.

I have just been informed that the flood will occur on Tuesday night as soon as the polls close.

 

[BobG]

... Florida's votes should not have counted at all, and their voters (who are partly to blame for not kicking up this same fuss back in December) were disenfranchised in January, not on on May 31. What was decided yesterday was to hand Clinton a bunch of delegates from states that did not have legal primaries. Heck, if Clinton wanted the system rigged in her favor she would just have had to find a way to make more of these primaries where the candidates were not allowed to introduce themselves to the electorate - that would have gotten her a landslide victory.

There's two separate issues. The most important at the moment is how the early primary affects the nomination.

The second issue is who should be able to decide when to hold a state's primary: the state that pays for it or the political parties that benefit from a free (to them) primary.

Actually, the people of the states benefit by the states paying for the primaries, as well. If the political parties had to pay for the process, cost would force them to decide the delegates of a state by a convention of state party leaders or some other low cost method. They couldn't afford to hold a primary where the voters could have a say.

Obviously, there has to be a limit on the primary season, so letting the individual states fight it out for the earliest primary in a free for all isn't feasible. Still, if a compromise can't be found that doesn't give Iowa and New Hampshire the first contests of every Presidential election, then why shouldn't the individual states take matters into their own hands?

As far as the voters kicking up a fuss - was there really ever any realistic chance the Democratic Party could kick two states completely out of the nomination process and still expect their candidate to win those states in November?

The Democratic National Committee dug their own hole by imposing an unrealistic punishment.

 

[Art]

From what her aides are saying it seems unlikely Clinton will concede either today or tomorrow. In fact it seems likely she will never concede. At this point it appears she wants to take it all the way to the convention using her fuzzy maths to claim her crown has been stolen by the Young Pretender Obama. Seems Father Fleger wasn't all wrong

Excluding insanity as a cause then presumably her key motivation now is to try and deepen the rifts in the party as much as possible to diminish the chances of an Obama win in November to give her another chance in 4 years time. If this is her plan then personally I think she is deluded as splits work both ways and Obama supporters will not be very forgiving.

After the results today it is probable Obama will simply claim victory tomorrow without waiting any longer for Hillary to concede. If so it will be interesting to see her reaction as that will set the tone for what's to come.

 

[Gokul43201]

Latest poll by ARG has Clinton winning SD by 25 points!

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

What's fat, female, and sings?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24944453"

 

[turbo]

According to McAuliffe, Clinton will not concede tonight.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080603/pl_nm/usa_politics_clinton_mcauliffe_dc;_ylt=AtS8ZlxUiS_KgA2S13P7Joas0NUE

My take on this is that a gracious concession and an offer of unconditional support to Obama is the only bargaining chip that she has left. She needs his help fund-raising to retire her massive debt, and she will expect more. I hope Obama is smart enough to NOT offer her the VP slot. The presence of the Clinton machinery in his administration would be the kiss of death IF he could manage a win with that mill-stone hanging around his neck. Instead, offer her a plum position with status that she could not ever hope to obtain without decades of service and seniority in the Senate. Her nomination to the next open Supreme Court Justice position would be a fair bet. I don't think that Clinton will take too long to concede - a day or two at the most - but she's going to demand blood.

 

[lisab]

My take on this is that a gracious concession and an offer of unconditional support to Obama is the only bargaining chip that she has left.

She's about two months past "gracious."

 

[turbo]

She's about two months past "gracious."

Oh, yes, she's two months into bitter desperation by now, but don't expect her supporters to question her dog-in-the-manger tactics. She's going to have to give them some kind of sop to get Obama their (likely grudging) support.

I don't know if she can be effective at healing even part of the damage that she has done to her party because her massive ego prevents her from admitting ANY mistakes, including her authorization to let Bush start a war that was entirely unnecessary. Her refusal to read the NIE and her vote authorizing the Iraq war should be enough to bar her from any future administrative position - call it lack of judgment or political calculation to make her look tough for the presidential election - either way, she's too dangerous to be allowed in the VP slot - one assassin's bullet away from achieving her single-minded quest to be queen of the USA. I use the word "queen" because of the overwhelming sense of entitlement that surrounds her and motivates her every utterance about this campaign.

 

[Art]

One radical option open to her is to form her own breakaway democratic party and stand as it's nominee. Perhaps unlikely as it would split the democratic vote handing victory to the republicans but then again I certainly wouldn't put it past her. Her manner certainly suggests she is of the mindset that if she can't be the next democratic president then no-one else will be but can she find enough lemmings to follow her.

 

[Gokul43201]

One radical option open to her is to form her own breakaway democratic party and stand as it's nominee. Perhaps unlikely as it would split the democratic vote handing victory to the republicans but then again I certainly wouldn't put it past her. Her manner certainly suggests she is of the mindset that if she can't be the next democratic president then no-one else will be but can she find enough lemmings to follow her.

Not going to happen, Art. She's not that nuts!

 

[turbo]

I don't know, Gokul, Carville says she's more nuts than Obama.

 

[Gokul43201]

Anyway, yesterday's superdelegate endorsements were not a freak incident. It looks like floodgates have been opened finally. From demconwatch:

6-3-08 - Added DNC Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO) for Obama
- Added DNC Joyce Lalonde (MI)* for Obama
- Added Rep. John Olver (MA) for Obama
- Added Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (MI)* for Obama
- Added DNC Debbie Dingell (MI)* for Obama
- Added DNC Richard Wiener (MI)* for Obama
- Added DNC Jennifer DeChant (ME) for Obama
- Added DNC Joyce Beatty (OH) for Obama
- Added DNC Kwame Kilpatrick (MI)* for Obama
- Added Rep. John Spratt (SC) for Obama
- Added DNC Debra Kozikowski (MA) for Obama
- Added DNC Jon Ausman (FL)* for Clinton

6-2-08 - Added DNC Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA) for Obama
- Added DNC Nancy DiNardo (CT) for Obama
- Added DNC Chris Whittington (LA) for Clinton
- Added DNC Brenda Lawrence (MI)* for Obama
- Added DNC Lu Battaglieri (MI)* for Obama
- Added DNC Irene Stein (NY) for Clinton
- Added DNC Janee Murphy (FL)* for Obama
- Added DNC David McDonald (WA) for Obama
- Added Rep. James Clyburn (SC) for Obama

6-1-08 - Added DNC Yvonne Gates (NV) for Obama
- Added Maine add-on Gwethalyn Phillips (ME)# for Obama

5-31-08 - Added DNC Claude "Buddy" Leach (LA) for Clinton

5-29-08 - Added DNC Gail Rasmussen (OR) for Obama
- Added DNC Eileen MacColl (WA) for Clinton
- Added Rep. Alan Mollohan (WV) for Obama
- Added DNC Boyd Richie (TX) for Obama
- Added DNC Betty Richie (TX) for Obama

5-28-08 - Added DNC Pat Waak (CO) for Obama
- Added DNC Meredith Woods-Smith (OR) for Obama
- Added DNC Wayne Kinney (OR) for Obama

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama actually loses SD and MT. It looks almost like he's prioritized calling the superdels way over campaigning in those states...while Bill and Chelsea have putting putting in a lot of time there.

Strategically this probably makes sense; every 10% of margin in each of those states nets only 1 delegate. But it wouldn't look to good if Obama had to make a speech tonight after getting thrashed in the last two races, in states he was expected to win.

 

[Gokul43201]

10 more superdels have endorsed Obama (4 being defections from the Clinton side) in the 2 hours since I posted the above piece.

6-3-08 - Added DNC Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO) for Obama
- Added DNC Joyce Lalonde (MI)* for Obama
- Added Rep. John Olver (MA) for Obama
- Added Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (MI)* for Obama
- Added DNC Debbie Dingell (MI)* for Obama
- Added DNC Richard Wiener (MI)* for Obama
- Added DNC Jennifer DeChant (ME) for Obama
- Added DNC Joyce Beatty (OH) for Obama
- Added DNC Kwame Kilpatrick (MI)* for Obama
- Added Rep. John Spratt (SC) for Obama
- Added DNC Debra Kozikowski (MA) for Obama
- Added DNC Jon Ausman (FL)* for Clinton
- Added DNC John Perez (CA) for Obama
- Added Jimmy Carter (GA) for Obama
- Added DNC Tina Abbott (MI)* for Obama
- Switched DNC Ben Johnson (DC) from Clinton to Obama
- Switched DNC Kamil Hasan (CA) from Clinton to Obama
- Added DNC Diane Glasser (FL)* for Obama
- Switched Rep. Maxine Waters (CA) from Clinton to Obama
- Added DNC John Daniello (DE) for Obama
-Added DNC Harriet Smith-Windsor (DE) for Obama
- Switched DNC Rhett Ruggerio (DE) from Clinton to Obama

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html

 

[turbo]

Defections are good, because they are two-fers.

 

[Art]

Defections are good, because they are two-fers.

Except Clinton will use this to justify her intention to stay in the race until the convention. Her argument will be superdelegates can switch sides as often as they like until the actual convention vote and so they may all switch to her over the summer.

 

[quadraphonics]

It doesn't really matter what Clinton does or does not do at this point: nobody except the most fanatical supporters are even paying attention any more. The race is over.

 

[mathwonk]

lisa you called it. i am listening to the least gracious concession speech i have ever heard.

i am not sure she is going to even concede. she still seems to be thinking she is running!

she is surely giving the least gracious speech i can recall.uh oh<.. "where do we go from here?..."

you are kidding me,... "I will be making no decisions tonight."

un **** ing believable. she has just trashed her previously excellent historical record.

this is amazingly ungracious and harmful to the party. i cannot remember anyone who was so completely devoted only to themselves with no concern for winning the election at all. but perhaps i have a short memory.

 

[mathwonk]

holy smoke! obama just came out and did the exact opposite of what senator clinton did, he praised her good qualities to the point that i began to remember that she has very good qualities in spite of her cheap attempts to make me forget that fact.

this guy is good. he has just made it possible for her to concede in the next few days. and he has begun the process of uniting the party.

holy cow, he has begun to reach out to mccain now! what a uniter, he is uniting the whole country. ... i am impressed.

 

[lisab]

Obama just finished. Wow, wow, wow. Beautiful!

What a great speech! Tonight, Obama was like a long drink of sweet water after the bitterness of Clinton's speech.

(I can't believe Clinton actually used the phrase "stay the course," and also invoked 9-11! Did she hire one of W's speech writers?!?)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yesterday was one of the worst days that I have had lately, and today was one of the best. It was great to finally hear the words: "I am the Democratic nominee".

I really didn't think he could pull it off; not against a Clinton! He ran a brilliant campaign. The fact that he could take down the Clintons is proof that he is fully capable. Not to mention the fact that he has raised more money, and more clean money, than any candidate in history. He had the largest turnouts of any candidate in history - both at the polls and the rallies. And he gives some of the greatest speaches ever heard in the US political arena.

I keep thinking about how Monica Crowley predicted that Hillary will "kill the baby seal" with barely an effort.