US Presidential Primaries, 2008

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In summary, the Iowa Caucus is going to be a close race, with Huckabee and Paul fighting for fourth place.

Who will be the eventual nominee from each party?


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  • #1,296
Astronuc said:
Based on what I was reading yesterday, that is a reasonable conclusion, unless Obama can change some opinions about himself, and find an appealing running mate.

Clinton does enjoy support among certain demographic groups.


On the other hand, I am saddened to see that media and apparently portions of the general public still consider race and gender to reasons to hold a negative opinion about someone. We have not progressed much from the 1960's.
I'll have to disagree here. Jimmy Carter has a pretty good "read" on Obama's campaign.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/04/carter-says-unity-ticket-would-be-worst-mistake/

I think he's right. Obama has some negatives with people who are conservative and/or racist. He can overcome some of that with a good VP pick. Clinton is not the one. She has the highest negatives of any person to ever run for president, and she will turn off many of the Independents and moderate Republicans that Obama might have attracted otherwise. Choosing Clinton as a VP would be self-destructive in the extreme and he is too smart for that. Besides, Michelle would cut him off for that ignorant move. :eek:
 
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  • #1,297
Evo said:
It's what you mentioned earlier, she has to continue campaining in order to be able to accept donations to reduce her debt. She's not stupid.
It's perfectly fine to ask for campaign donations. But it's completely disingenuous and insulting to tell your supporters you want to hear their opinions on what you should do next, and then give them a filled out form letter to submit.
 
  • #1,298
Gokul43201 said:
It's perfectly fine to ask for campaign donations. But it's completely disingenuous and insulting to tell your supporters you want to hear their opinions on what you should do next, and then give them a filled out form letter to submit.
I went there, you can skip it.
 
  • #1,299
Gokul43201 said:
It's perfectly fine to ask for campaign donations. But it's completely disingenuous and insulting to tell your supporters you want to hear their opinions on what you should do next, and then give them a filled out form letter to submit.
Did you expect less from Queen Hillary? The only way to communicate with the campaign apart from the pre-packaged buttons is to click the almost invisible "contact us" link at the bottom of the page and send a comment. BTW, if you don't fill out the "required" fields that are not specified on the page, your comment will not be posted. After a couple of those "errors", it became quite evident that Clinton's web-site was designed to show a landslide of popular support for her candidacy. What a pig!
 
  • #1,300
turbo-1 said:
Did you expect less from Queen Hillary? The only way to communicate with the campaign apart from the pre-packaged buttons is to click the almost invisible "contact us" link at the bottom of the page and send a comment. BTW, if you don't fill out the "required" fields that are not specified on the page, your comment will not be posted. After a couple of those "errors", it became quite evident that Clinton's web-site was designed to show a landslide of popular support for her candidacy. What a pig!
It's the same as Obama's website.
 
  • #1,301
Not quite. Clinton's is quite obstructive, as you will find out if you try to post a comment. Here's Obama's:

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php
 
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  • #1,302
Evo said:
I went there, you can skip it.
If you skip the form, how do you tell Hillary what you want her to do with her campaign? That is supposedly the point of the form.

Anyway, multiple sources are now reporting that Hillary is going to call it a day, by the end of this week.

From the Times:
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is moving to suspend her campaign and endorse Senator Barack Obama on Friday after Democratic members of Congress urged her on Wednesday to leave the race and allow the party to unite around Mr. Obama, according to a senior adviser to Mrs. Clinton.

Mrs. Clinton is likely to make the announcement in New York City, an aide said, although no final venue has been chosen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/05/u....html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin

And furthermore, from WSJ:
Close supporters suggested she would like to be his running mate, on a unity ticket.

But close advisers to Sen. Obama signaled an Obama-Clinton ticket was highly unlikely. People in both camps cited what several called "a deal-breaker" -- Bill Clinton may balk at releasing records of his business dealings and big donors to his presidential library.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121262109484746703.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
 
  • #1,303
Nice try Hillary, but no cigar. (Thanks evo, for that one). The more I think of it, the more disgraceful her speech seems to me. However, she will not carry this to the convention, she won't even carry it to the weekend. On Friday she will concede. She told the members of AIPAC meeting that Israel had a friend in Obama.
 
  • #1,304
turbo-1 said:
Not quite. Clinton's is quite obstructive, as you will find out if you try to post a comment. Here's Obama's:

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php
I went to both websites and I was not able to figure out how to even send an e-mail to Obama, I thought I had the first time, but on going back when you select "contact us" at Obama's website, you get the royal run around. Please show me the e-mail form on his "contact us" page. http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/contact/

Ah yes, you have to find a link to "other thoughts and questions"

http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/contact2

Here is Hillary's contact page.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/help/contact/

I find it immensely amusing that you people are so blinded by hate.

Also, I find this hysterical
Obama proclaims himself the Democratic nominee

Napoleon proclaimed himself emperor. :rolleyes:
 
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  • #1,305
Evo, the point of my post was to elucidate the deception in her speech. She tells you that you can go to her website and tell her what to do with her campaign. But when you go to her website you find a form that already has a message filled out on your behalf!

And then there's this:
The Clinton forces also have another wish: whomever Obama ends up choosing, he not pick another woman, even after the kabuki ends. "Hillary's supporters, and Hillary herself, can't stand the idea that he would pick another woman," said another source who is personally close to the Clintons.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/139908

Wow! Can she anymore insult herself and her entire gender in the process?
 
  • #1,306
Blinded by hate? Perhaps I have been blinded by disgust at the Clintons' tactics, but I do not hate them.

I was able to send comments to both campaigns, also, but Clinton's web-site was designed to generate lots of positive responses to her continuing candidacy. Obama's site was designed to pull in more financial support. Big difference. If you are designing a web-site that herds people into yes-no decisions for economic or political gain, you follow the Clinton model. You're savvy to this stuff, Evo. Clinton is desperately trying to build leverage to force concessions out of Obama's campaign even after she has lost, and her web-site is the only low-cost medium left to her. Desperation and denial are ugly.
 
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  • #1,307
Gokul43201 said:
Evo, the point of my post was to elucidate the deception in her speech. She tells you that you can go to her website and tell her what to do with her campaign. But when you go to her website you find a form that already has a message filled out on your behalf!
And you can bypass that and go straight to comments. I agree it's cheesy.

It's just that you guys are so over the top filled with hatred, I find it amusing. I don't get crazy about it. But I could nit pick apart Obama also. What about those funds he funneled to Pfleger's church after Pfleger contributed to Obama's campaign?

I'm voting for Obama, but he's no saint. I'm voting for him because I am pro-choice, I am for gay rights, including gay marriage, I am for gun control, so obviously I would not vote for McCain. I would imagine all candidates are pro-Israeli. I was surprised to hear Obama say that the reason he opposed invading Iraq was that he believed that Iran was the real enemy and we should be focusing there instead.
 
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  • #1,308
Evo said:
It's just that you guys are so over the top filled with hatred, I find it amusing.
Evo, I can't find it within myself to hate Clinton. I am revolted by some of the tactics that she used including comparing Obama negatively against McCain, but I don't hate her. I want her and her misogynistic husband to take a powder so we can see if we Independents and progressives and REAL conservatives can get back at least a little of our federal government. Our country has some real problems and though a president can't fix them all (given the roots of many of them) a person in that position may be able to help. Clinton is more of "more of the same" and I don't want her involved in this next administration.
 
  • #1,309
turbo-1 said:
Evo, I can't find it within myself to hate Clinton. I am revolted by some of the tactics that she used including comparing Obama negatively against McCain, but I don't hate her. I want her and her misogynistic husband to take a powder so we can see if we Independents and progressives and REAL conservatives can get back at least a little of our federal government. Our country has some real problems and though a president can't fix them all (given the roots of many of them) a person in that position may be able to help. Clinton is more of "more of the same" and I don't want her involved in this next administration.
Fair enough, I just got the impression that some people here had an unusual bias aganst her. Obama needs her to help him win over her supporters, I don't see how he can win otherwise. I think Obama and Clinton have an agreement behind the scenes, just my take on it. Why do you think everything he says about her is suddenly dripped in honey? He's a politician and he wants to win. She's a politician, she isn't going down without getting something in return.
 
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  • #1,310
Evo said:
Fair enough, I just got the impression that some people here had an unusual bias aganst her. Obama needs her to help him win over her supporters, I don't see how he can win otherwise. I think Obama and Clinton have an agreement behind the scenes, just my take on it. Why do you think everything he says about her is suddenly dripped in honey? He's a politician and he wants to win. She's a politician, she isn't going down without getting something in return.
His every reference to Clinton is praise because that's what a gracious winner does in politics. He cannot possibly offer her the VP slot after the crap that she has pulled on him (John McCain would be the better president) but he can offer her the next open slot on the Supremes or some other sop to keep her happy. Clinton is trying to keep Obama in a very uncomfortable position, but the Dems will not let her play this game beyond the next 2-3 days at most. They are fed up with her, and will force her hand, and will ruin her reputation if she does not back down.
 
  • #1,311
turbo-1 said:
His every reference to Clinton is praise because that's what a gracious winner does in politics.
Oh turbo, come on, you know the issues surrounding Clinton's supporters, Obama needs to win them over. He knows it, Clinton knows it. She already said she would do whatever was right for the party, I'll bet my patio garden that the two of them are negotiating a deal.
 
  • #1,312
Evo said:
Oh turbo, come on, you know the issues surrounding Clinton's supporters, Obama needs to win them over. He knows it, Clinton knows it. She already said she would do whatever was right for the party, I'll bet my patio garden that the two of them are negotiating a deal.
He does not need to kiss Hillary's butt to gain the support of her constituency. These people know that if McCain is elected, reproductive choice is threatened and abortion is doomed. In addition, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy (I shouldn't mention Cindy McCain should I?) will be made permanent if McCain gets his way, and we will NEVER negotiate with any country that the administration dislikes. Sound like a good thing? I hope you don't think so.
 
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  • #1,313
turbo-1 said:
He does not need to kiss Hillary's butt to gain the support of her constituency.
I guess you may have missed all of the bruhaha about many of Clinton's followers refusing to vote for Obama. I think it's crazy, but there you go.
 
  • #1,314
Evo said:
I guess you may have missed all of the bruhaha about many of Clinton's followers refusing to vote for Obama. I think it's crazy, but there you go.
There's talk and there's action. If feminists and women-first voters want to vote for McCain and deny reproductive choices to their daughters and granddaughters, I can only feel pity for them and wonder at their ignorance.
 
  • #1,315
turbo-1 said:
There's talk and there's action. If feminists and women-first voters want to vote for McCain and deny reproductive choices to their daughters and granddaughters, I can only feel pity for them and wonder at their ignorance.
Same here, I wonder if they plan to throw their vote away on Barr?
 
  • #1,316
Evo said:
And you can bypass that and go straight to comments. I agree it's cheesy.
It's more than cheesy, Evo. It's Hillary Clinton putting words into my mouth. It's the brazenness of her conduct that is shocking.

It's just that you guys are so over the top filled with hatred, I find it amusing.
I find it amusing that you can diagnose what we are filled with. Nevertheless, perhaps you will find it amusing that many of Hillary's closest friends have also been getting turned off by her campaign.

Take the example of Hilary Rosen, a close friend, who wrote last week:
Lately I am asked by lots of friends, including my new colleagues at the HuffPost -- who I am so privileged to work with -- just what it is about Hillary that makes me stick with her now, knowing that her chances to gain the nomination are slim to nonexistent.
...
The personal answer for me is that I am loyal.
Rosen had this to say, after the speech last night:
She had a chance to surprise her party and the nation after the day-long denials about expecting any concession and send Obama off on the campaign trail of the general election with the best possible platform. I wrote before how she had a chance for her "Al Gore moment." And if she had done so, the whole country ALL would be talking today about how great she is and give her her due.

Instead she left her supporters empty, Obama's angry, and party leaders trashing her. She said she was stepping back to think about her options. She is waiting to figure out how she would "use" her 18 million voters.

But not my vote. I will enthusiastically support Barack Obama's campaign. Because I am not a bargaining chip. I am a Democrat.

It's very clear what Hillary's doing, and even her close aides are talking about it now - she is using her success in this campaign to leverage some clout from the party. She doesn't really care about what her supporters think or want. Rosen is the most recent in a long list of Clinton friends, from Bill Richardson to Richard Reich to Joe Andrew, that have been turned off by her campaign.

Evo said:
I don't get crazy about it. But I could nit pick apart Obama also. What about those funds he funneled to Pfleger's church after Pfleger contributed to Obama's campaign?
So far we have only been talking about the conduct of the candidates during this campaign - if you want to dig a decade into the past to bring up dirt, that's a game that Hillary will not feel comfortable playing. Incidentally, Pfleger had made about $1300 worth of donations to Obama over a period of 6 years before the earmark in 2001. In this last year alone, there have probably been tens or even hundreds of thousands of donors that have contributed similar amounts to Obama's campaign and he has over a million donors already. If he wins, he's going to have a really difficult time making sure his government spends no money in the interests of all these people. But if it's decade old nitpicking we want to do, there's some elephant sized nits in Hillary's closet.

I'm voting for Obama, but he's no saint.
Of course he's no saint. He is, after all, a very successful politician. I have no doubt that he is extremely politically shrewd, and that he's probably made many dirty political moves in his career, but there is absolutely no comparison between the Hillary campaign and the Obama campaign.
 
  • #1,317
Gokul43201 said:
Of course he's no saint. He is, after all, a very successful politician. I have no doubt that he is extremely politically shrewd, and that he's probably made many dirty political moves in his career, but there is absolutely no comparison between the Hillary campaign and the Obama campaign.
Why do you think I decided to go with Obama months ago after YOU convinced me? I even posted that, way back when.
 
  • #1,318
Gokul43201 said:
That's directly in opposition to what the exit polls have been saying time and again.

We are talking about blacks who never vote. The exit polls only count the first half of the statement.

Recall that if blacks had turned out even in the small numbers expected, Bush never would have been elected the first time.
 
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  • #1,319
Astronuc said:
On the other hand, I am saddened to see that media and apparently portions of the general public still consider race and gender to reasons to hold a negative opinion about someone. We have not progressed much from the 1960's.

I completely disagree. We are in a different universe, and the proof is the new nominee. Black people all over this country were brought to tears last night and today [as was I], and many are still shaking their heads in disbelief [as am I]. Everywhere you turn, blacks are saying the same thing today [as am I and people all over the world]: It is a new day in America.
 
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  • #1,320
Last night I daydreamed that I stood in front of Obama and took a bullet meant for him.

I have so much hope for this planet.

I hope he doesn't take his new job too seriously. I'd hate to see him turn prematurely grey.
 
  • #1,321
What Obama needs from Clinton is not so much her voting-booth-level supporters, but her contributors, and fundraising/campaign machine. The goal is ultimately votes, but that will come along with having the full heft of the Dem campaign apparatus working together.
 
  • #1,322
quadraphonics said:
What Obama needs from Clinton is not so much her voting-booth-level supporters, but her contributors, and fundraising/campaign machine. The goal is ultimately votes, but that will come along with having the full heft of the Dem campaign apparatus working together.
Given a choice, I'd take the votes.
 
  • #1,323
Obama raised more money than any primary candidate in history, and far more than Hillary raised. He did this by being clever and by recognizing the power of the internet. It is not only an example of his ability to blaze trails and to perceive new opportunities, it also speaks to his organzational skills.

And I for one intend to send him more money. Already gave twice.

Give $20, or $2000, it all helps.
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/postmtsdsplash
 
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  • #1,324
Ivan Seeking said:
...Give $20, or $2000, it all helps.
Absolutely. Send it in right here:
http://www.johnmccain.com/landing2/?sid=google&t=newlanding&r=johnmccain
 
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  • #1,325
Yes, charity is fine as well.
 
  • #1,326
Ivan Seeking said:
Yes, charity is fine as well.

:smile:

I've already given Obama some $, and I plan on giving him $$$.
 
  • #1,327
jimmysnyder said:
Given a choice, I'd take the votes.

I'm not so sure I would, even if such a choice existed. High turnout amongst Hillary's core supporters is probably less important than getting out the independents, and for that, the more campaign machinery you have, the better.
 
  • #1,328
going out on a limb here: choosing hillary as running mate would be idiotic at this point.
 
  • #1,329
mathwonk said:
going out on a limb here: choosing hillary as running mate would be idiotic at this point.
Why?
 
  • #1,330
evo, i am going to ask a question. i assume that hillary is feeling what any woman who is talented would feel in current us, i.e. i have worked so hard and overcome so much, why should i give up now?

but the rules of the game are that one must be generous and willing to concede when one has lost, or else no one will cut you any slack. i.e. the boys are not aware of the extra difficulties one has faced as a woman, and hence apply the same rules as to a man, namely, be gracious in defeat, not defiant to the point of rudeness.

does this ring a bell? can you tell us her perspective?

please forgive me if this is stupid to the point of idiocy. i am not a genius.

the direct answer to your question is : (credit to NPR)

1) she is pushing so hard for the VP slot that it would make obama look like a weakling to choose her.

2) she brings a lot of baggage to the job, named Bill,

3) the primary qualification for VP is loyalty to the pres, which she has shown no taste for.

4) she may well cost more votes than she attracts.

numbers 1,2,3 are the main reasons.
 
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