US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Astronuc]

I've only heard about this in similar, somewhat vague terms. When was the last time this happened?

I can easily see this happening in at least one party, if not both. For the Republicans, if McCain and Romney emerge as forerunners, it looks like Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson and Paul have enough money and support to take away at least 20% of the delegates. Run any combination you like, among those 6 Reps, and it's hard to imagine that the bottom 4 don't carry at least 20% of the delegate count. And that makes it very hard for anyone to beat the 50% mark. Similarly, though to a lesser extent, among the Dems, there's a reasonable chance that Edwards will get over 10% of the delegates. So if Obama and Clinton remain close till the end, there may again be no majority holder. And then, after the backroom shenanigans are through, Edwards, with his crucial 10% could come out better positioned than the loser among Obama-Clinton!

As Evo pointed out, Nader undermined Gore in the 2000 election, but Nader was going as third party.

The last time deals were being made was 1972 IIRC, at least for the Democrats. In 1972, there was a close race between McGovern and Humphrey.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_presidential_election#Democratic_Party_nomination

Carter took the lead in the Democratic primaries in 1976, there have been strong front runners since.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_1976

The 1976 Republican National Convention was the last time a presidential convention opened without the nominee having already been decided in the primaries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976#Republican_Party_Nomination

There was a broad pack of Republicans in 1980, but Reagan pulled ahead of Bush and Dole. Bush became VP and Dole remained a senator until retirement. Dole never could inspire the voting public. The turning moment in 1980 was when Reagan grabbed the microphone during a debate in Nashua, NH and said "I'm paying for this microphone", and that projected a sense of command and leadership that overshadowed Bush, Dole and others.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980#Republican_Party

 

[Astronuc]

Apparently in Nevada, women voters came out for Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/us/politics/20nevada.html
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NV.html

In South Carolina, voters favored McCain over Huckabee. So now the Republicans have a three-way race.

McCain Victory in South Carolina Caps Comeback
By MICHAEL COOPER and MEGAN THEE
CHARLESTON, S.C. — Senator John McCain staved off a spirited challenge by Mike Huckabee to win the South Carolina primary on Saturday, exorcising the ghosts of the attack-filled primary here that derailed his presidential hopes eight years ago.

Mr. McCain’s victory here, on top of his win earlier this month in New Hampshire, capped a remarkable comeback for a campaign that was all but written off six months ago. In an unusually fluid Republican field, his aides said they hoped the victory would give Mr. McCain a head of steam going into the Jan. 29 Florida primary and the nationwide series of nominating contests on Feb. 5.

“It took us a while, but what’s eight years among friends?” Mr. McCain said at a boisterous victory celebration that broke out into shouts of “Mac is back! Mac is back!”

Mr. McCain did best among voters who said experience was the most important quality in a candidate, among those who said the Iraq war and terrorism were their top concerns and among the state’s veterans, who made up a quarter of the vote. He ran about even with Mr. Huckabee, who pressed a populist message here, among the many voters who said their top concern in the election was the economy. He also continued to draw strong support from independents.

Mr. Huckabee’s loss in a Southern state with a strong turnout of religious voters was a setback to his campaign as it heads toward potentially less hospitable states.

Nearly 60 percent of the voters in South Carolina identified themselves in exit polls as evangelical Christians, a group that was heavily courted by Mr. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and Baptist preacher. While Mr. Huckabee captured 4 in 10 of their votes, Mr. McCain also made inroads with the group, capturing more than a quarter of their vote.

The South Carolina primary has accurately predicted the Republican presidential nominee since 1980, and since 1988 it has often played a decisive role. The McCain campaign sought to highlight that history here this week, but he is still left facing a scrambled field of opponents, including Mitt Romney, whose lopsided victory in the lightly contested Nevada caucuses Saturday gave him his second win in a week. He defeated Mr. McCain in the Michigan primary on Tuesday.

. . . .

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/us/politics/20carolina.html
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/SC.html

SC Rep Primary Results
John McCain 143,224 33.2%
Mike Huckabee 128,908 29.9%
Fred D. Thompson 67,897 15.7%
Mitt Romney 64,970 15.1 %

Maybe it's a 4-way race.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

HUCKABEE: I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution. But I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living God, and that's what we need to do, is to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards so it lines up with some contemporary view of how we treat each other and how we treat the family.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22754999/

I didn't realize that the Constitution represents contemporary views! This shows a clear intent to violate the separation of church and state. He has an agenda and he is dangerous. He is an enemy of the Constitution.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I thought this was very interesting!

...MS. NORRIS: When you're on the ground, also, you really hear the Republican operatives. I mean, this is a conversation that I actually heard in South Carolina talking about how much they really want a Hillary Clinton victory.

MR. BROKAW: Mm-hmm.

MS. NORRIS: I mean, they actually will talk openly about bringing Barack Obama down a few notches because they want to run against Hillary.

MR. MEACHAM: Because it's a known known, to give Secretary--former Secretary Rumsfeld his due. Hillary Clinton, they know what to do. Barack Obama, how do you run against the first African American nominee? It explodes all conventional campaign dogma in ways that completely will surprise and pleasantly and unpleasantly perhaps as they go forward. And I that that that's the--one of the things that's so scary about Obama to Republicans is they don't how to run against him...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22754999/page/4/

 

[Astronuc]

I thought this was very interesting!

...MS. NORRIS: When you're on the ground, also, you really hear the Republican operatives. I mean, this is a conversation that I actually heard in South Carolina talking about how much they really want a Hillary Clinton victory.

MR. BROKAW: Mm-hmm.

MS. NORRIS: I mean, they actually will talk openly about bringing Barack Obama down a few notches because they want to run against Hillary.

MR. MEACHAM: Because it's a known known, to give Secretary--former Secretary Rumsfeld his due. Hillary Clinton, they know what to do. Barack Obama, how do you run against the first African American nominee? It explodes all conventional campaign dogma in ways that completely will surprise and pleasantly and unpleasantly perhaps as they go forward. And I that that that's the--one of the things that's so scary about Obama to Republicans is they don't how to run against him...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22754999/page/4/

This is pretty sick. The democratic process should be about what is best for the country with the selection of the one with the best ideas, not how to trash the opponent.

And Huckabee's comments are worrisome. Who is he to determine "God's standards"?

 

[denverdoc]

This is pretty sick. The democratic process should be about what is best for the country with the selection of the one with the best ideas, not how to trash the opponent.

And Huckabee's comments are worrisome. Who is he to determine "God's standards"?

Well Bush's portal to the divine truth is about to close up, someone needs to take over.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Is anyone else watching the dem debate on CNN?

Obama just hit Hillary with a series of bombshells! Potentially very damaging...

I love Obama. He is able to take these sleeze attacks and turn them against the attacker. He is the master of the Corbomite Maneuver. It appears to me that the Reps have more problems than Obama's color.

Edit: WHAM! He just hit her again right after she was jeered by the crowd. She was noticably shaken. Her sleeze attacks just aren't working... and then they backfire.

 

[denverdoc]

No but you raise a point--instead of all this pointless prognostication, let's get back to discussing what would be the most interestin race and why? I say Obama vs Huckabee, reasons are obvious.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I think Huck is dead. His comments the other day even rattled his base!

To me this is all about which dem candidate is the best choice. On one hand we want someone who can win, but on the other hand we want the best person. To me a defining moment of this race came when Obama positioned himself as a somewhat unorganized leader who seeks visionary solutions to our problems, and Hillary positioned herself as a CPA! She couldn't have made the choice for me any easier. But more importantly, Obama is showing that he can win. He is even pulling support from prominent red-state democrats!

 

[Astronuc]

It will be interesting to see what impact this week's economic and financial news will have on the upcoming primaries.

The European and Asian stock markets are down, the DOW could fall another 3% or more tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the DOW drops about 5%.

In Florida (polls):
Dem
Clinton  50%
Obama    28%
Edwards  13%

Rep
McCain    26%
Giuliani  22%
Huckabee  17%
Romney    16%
Thompson   7%
Paul       5%

All State Polls

Dem
Obama    44%
Clinton  38%
Edwards   9%
Kucinich  1%
Unsure    8%

Rep
McCain    33%
Huckabee  23%
Romney    20%
Thompson  13%
Giuliani   4%
Keyes      2%
Hunter     1%
Paul       1%
Unsure     3%

Poll numbers based on recent CNN polls. I think the margin of error is much larger that +/-4% since the sampling population was about 600.

Giuliani has fallen out of favor with NY Republicans who are now leaning toward McCain. Of the top four, I think McCain has the broadest appeal.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

In the news:

As their campaign sparring continues, the Illinois senator seems to be spending almost as much time responding to Hillary Clinton's husband as he does to the candidate herself.

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, one of the most powerful African-Americans in Congress, weighed in on the feud Monday, saying it was time for Bill Clinton to watch his words. [continued]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/21/obama.clintons/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

Will Bill Clinton [often called America's first black president] turn white before this is over?

 

[D H]

say Obama vs Huckabee, reasons are obvious.

What a nightmare! The man who wants to take my job away versus the man who believes my job shouldn't even exist. I will find some third party candidate to vote for should this come to pass.

 

[Astronuc]

Bill Clinton [often called America's first black president]

It sounded stupid then, and it still does.

It's pretty sad that the culture still thinks in terms of a person's race or gender.

So much for the ideal of content of character.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama was just asked about Clinton's color!

I see it all as a historic paradigm shift. As a result of the significance of Obama’s candidacy, there is no way to avoid the race issue. It also provides for many unique tactical political challenges for the other candidates, which is part of what’s going on here. But all in all it is a prideful thing for this country to have a black presidential contender who could actually win. I personally see him [so far] as one of America’s best and completely qualified to do the job; and likely qualified to do it spectacularly! The point being that I would certainly be supporting him no matter his race. But the race factor makes it all quite fascinating.

As Mark Shields recently stated: The Clintons have long dreamed of the day when we would have a black president; just not on their watch!

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

QUOTE OF THE DEBATE!

"in a race where you have an african american, a women... and John" - Obama

those who watched the debate understand lol

 

[BobG]

Which election was it that Ralph Nader was blamed for pulling just enough votes to alter the election? Supposedly Bush might not have won if it wasn't for Nader taking away Democratic votes. Don't know if there is any truth to that. I kind of equate Paul's attempt to Nader's, so he might help pull enough Republican votes to ensure a Democratic win.

I think it might have been this? Whatever happened to the "Green Party"?

http://www.nvri.org/library/cases/Becker/beckercomplaint.shtml

Dr Phil voted for Nader, I wonder if he is voting for Ron Paul?

Having sold his soul to the Republican party for the Primaries, I don't think Paul will be allowed to run in the General Election as a third party candidate.

I don't think Paul can get on the Ohio ballot having already lost in the primaries (I'm calling the Ohio primary just a bit early), however:

1) This is a law in only a few states.

2) The law might not hold up to a court challenge. I'm not sure if the parties currently in power can pass laws restricting the ability of opposing parties to get on the ballot.

3) Joy Padgett already lost in the primaries, but was named as a replacement candidate for a different office due to scandal causing withdrawal of the primary candidate within her own party (confusing?). Of course, the key is that she ran as a Republican both times rather than threaten the status quo for either of the parties currently holding power.


Where's our current standings!?

 

[Gokul43201]

Where's our current standings!?

Have we got some spoiled brats here or what?

I'm too tired today. Feel free to do the noble thing and fill in for me!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

QUOTE OF THE DEBATE!

"in a race where you have an african american, a women... and John" - Obama

those who watched the debate understand lol

Did you hear Obama's ancillary answer about Clinton being black?

"I would have to, you know, investigate more of Bill's dancing abilities, you know, and some of this other stuff before I accurately judge whether he was in fact a brother."

"Well, I'm sure that can be arranged," Clinton said, as the crowd laughed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/21/AR2008012102437_2.html?hpid=topnews

I was trying to gauge the look on Edward's face as Obama answered. It looked a bit like disbelief! And he certainly didn't understand why the crowd laughed at the quote that you posted. He appeared to be quite perplexed.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Did you hear Obama's ancillary answer about Clinton being black?


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/21/AR2008012102437_2.html?hpid=topnews

I was trying to gauge the look on Edward's face as Obama answered. It looked a bit like disbelief! And he certainly didn't understand why the crowd laughed at the quote that you posted. He appeared to be quite perplexed.

haha yeah, Obama was funny tonight. Edwards had a half smirk half wtf expression, I loved it.

 

[Astronuc]

The European and Asian stock markets are down, the DOW could fall another 3% or more tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the DOW drops about 5%.

So I was only off 35 points with an anticipation of a 500 point drop.

(Yahoo/AP) - Dow Industrials Drop 465 Points Then Gain Most of It Back As Fed Cuts Rates 3/4 Point
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080122/wall_street.html

Dow is down about 1.5% this afternoon. The Fed dropped a key interest rate by 3/4%, which helps those with mortgages, but will put a downward pressure on the value of the dollar against foreign currencies.

The next president will inherit a mess.

 

[lisab]

Thompson's out. Finally.

It's about time. I was gettting so tired of hearing the media always mentioning his "...6-foot-5 frame and deep baritone...".



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22786860

 

[kach22i]

Thompson's out. Finally.

We will miss his wife.

<< marginal picture deleted by berkeman >>

 

[BobG]

These standings might be correct:

Points Table:

            SCar    Nev     Total
BobG        6       9         39
Gokul       4       7         38
Ivan        4       7         38
Astronuc    4       4         33 
Evo                           25
Art         4       9         25
Coin                          15
Maxwell                        8

 

[kach22i]

Don't take much.

Points?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Wolf Blitzer was just reporting that high ranking members of the Black Caucus are expressing fears that if Hillary gets the nomination, black voters may be so alienated by the mud slinging, and so resentful of her displacing the first viable black candidate, that they won't show up in November.

It seems to me that with Hillary's exceedingly high negatives, something like this could easily throw the election to the Reps.

All things considered, of the two candidates, at this point it seems to me that Obama is the most electable. I don't see racism being as large a factor as Hillary's baggage.

 

[Astronuc]

And we have another 10 months to go! or

 

[Gokul43201]

Thanks for the update Bob!

Points?

We're running a Fantasy League. See the first page of posts for how it works.

And you can join anytime!

 

[Gokul43201]

What's the final verdict on Fl - Dem delegates? Will they count, or won't they?

I recall reading in the news a while ago, that the ban will likely not withstand a court challenge. So far, I'm not aware of any such challenge, but I assume Floridians are going to go ahead and vote, nevertheless. The candidates are adhering to a state party pledge to not campaign there so I fully expect the results to favor Clinton by about a dozen points.

 

[BobG]

What's the final verdict on Fl - Dem delegates? Will they count, or won't they?

I recall reading in the news a while ago, that the ban will likely not withstand a court challenge. So far, I'm not aware of any such challenge, but I assume Floridians are going to go ahead and vote, nevertheless. The candidates are adhering to a state party pledge to not campaign there so I fully expect the results to favor Clinton by about a dozen points.

How can Florida delegates count if Michigan delegates don't? Moving the primaries up in spite of the penalties was a gamble that the nomination would be wrapped up by convention time and that delegates would still get their trip to Denver. If the nomination is close enough to depend on Michigan and Florida, then it will be an interesting summer.

A meaningless ballot in which Clinton was the only major candidate still attracted 600,000 in Michigan, so I would expect the Florida turnout to be pretty strong.

If the Republicans are really, really close, I imagine there will be some noise about the states that were penalized half their delegates, as well. Half of Michigan's and Florida's delegates is still a fairly large chunk of delegates.

 

[lisab]

.

It seems to me that with Hillary's exceedingly high negatives, something like this could easily throw the election to the Reps.

I'm with you on that, Ivan. I think she was planning to use Bill in the general election as her saving grace to overcome her significant negatives. Say what you will about him, he can campaign with the best of them.

But I don't think he's been doing her much good, lately. He comes off as too angry.

Say it with me: O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA!

 

[falc39]

lol

McCain talks about president Putin, of Germany.

hahahahaha

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=36a_1200899945"

He already has lost all credibility with me on Iraq after the baghdad marketplace lie and the "make it 100!" statement. Oh yea, and plus that reporter thrashing him.

There was also this other time where he referred to Canada as part of Europe in a debate. http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4091842

If you listen closely you can hear Ron Paul make fun of him after the statement.

 

[Gokul43201]

Early to be looking this far out, but what the heck...

This electoral vote projection has McCain beating Obama and Clinton in the general election:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jan22.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jan21.html

 

[Gokul43201]

Thompson's out. Finally.

Rudy could be next. Florida is going to kick him in the ballots! He must now depend on NY and NJ to make something work for him! But McCain is uncomfortably close in both states.

 

[Gokul43201]

How can Florida delegates count if Michigan delegates don't?

I only ever read anything about Florida wanting to sue the DNC.

 

[wildman]

My picks for Iowa:

Democrats
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain

Wow! You are really good.