What Are the Implications of Megaupload Being Taken Down?

[russ_watters]

Unfortunately for the "entertainment industry" piracy via P2P amounts to nill real economic loss...

I'd like to see a study that shows the REAL economic cost of piracy of movies & music.

You're badly wrong and this has been widely publicized for the past decade. Piracy has badly damaged the profits of the entertainment industry. Here's a study, with some simple factoids on page 5:
http://www.ifpi.org/content/library/DMR2011.pdf

Perhaps the clearest, to the point factoid is that from 2004-2010, the value of the global recording industry fell by 31%.

And applicable to the thread:

The IPRED law had an instant impact. In
a single day in April 2009, internet traffic in
Sweden was reported to have dropped 40
per cent (Netnod) and there were several
reported voluntary closures of BitTorrent
trackers. According to a study from Uppsala
University by Adermon & Liang, Piracy, Music
and Movies, A Natural Experiment, it was the
introduction of the IPRED law that triggered the
reduction in piracy levels. The study found
that legitimate music consumption increased
to fill the gap. For each percentage point fall
in piracy caused by the new law, there was a
statistically significant sales increase.

 

[Evo]

People if you plan to show comparison of sentences, you might want to first check on the validty of what you're posting. A Spanish murderer committed and tried in Spain under Spanish law has zero to do with American law.

 

[Char. Limit]

You're badly wrong and this has been widely publicized for the past decade. Piracy has badly damaged the profits of the entertainment industry. Here's a study, with some simple factoids on page 5:
http://www.ifpi.org/content/library/DMR2011.pdf

Perhaps the clearest, to the point factoid is that from 2004-2010, the value of the global recording industry fell by 31%.

And applicable to the thread:

I don't consider a study made by someone who claims to be "representing the recording the industry" (as seen on the first page of the PDF) to be unbiased. Sorry.

 

[ThomasT]

You're badly wrong and this has been widely publicized for the past decade. Piracy has badly damaged the profits of the entertainment industry. Here's a study, with some simple factoids on page 5:
http://www.ifpi.org/content/library/DMR2011.pdf

Perhaps the clearest, to the point factoid is that from 2004-2010, the value of the global recording industry fell by 31%.

And applicable to the thread:

I think that the validity of those numbers is questionable. Wrt what you point to as the clearest factoid, the drop in the value of the global recording industry might, imho, have more to do with the decline of general economies than with internet copyright infringements.

The way I'm currently thinking about it is that in order to say, definitively, that internet copyright infringement has had any effect whatsoever on the entertainment industry's gross revenues, then one would have to be able to factually establish that a certain number of the people who downloaded pirated copies of movies or music would have bought what they downloaded if they weren't able to download what they downloaded for free. (That's sort of a convoluted sentence, but I think you know what I mean.)

I don't know of any way to ascertain that.

There are some interesting correlations. But those correlations might, imo, be due, primarily, to factors other than internet piracy.

 

[Pythagorean]

People if you plan to show comparison of sentences, you might want to first check on the validty of what you're posting. A Spanish murderer committed and tried in Spain under Spanish law has zero to do with American law.

To be fair, I asked if it was true when I posted it; I didn't state it was true. I also made two posts questioning the validity of it.

 

[Evo]

To be fair, I asked if it was true when I posted it; I didn't state it was true. I also made two posts questioning the validity of it.

True, and also why you didn't get a warning, but a quick google would have given you the answer, which was my point.

 

[Evo]

Thomas try this.

Analysis carried out in this report indicates that international trade in counterfeit and pirated products could have been up to USD 200 billion in 2005. This total does not include domestically produced and consumed counterfeit and pirated products and the significant volume of pirated digital products being distributed via the Internet. If these items were added, the total magnitude of counterfeiting and piracy worldwide could well be several hundred billion dollars more.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/13/12/38707619.pdf

 

[Pythagorean]

True, and also why you didn't get a warning, but a quick google would have given you the answer, which was my point.

A quick google reveals opinions pages from normal users; I haven't found any official news on it.

But I think we should keep it up and inform people of the misconception, or make a new thread, because it's spreading like wildfire all over social network sites.

 

[AlephZero]

Source: Financial Times 24 Jan 2012 (edited for length - the FT devoted half a broadsheet page to this topic).

The global music industry is close to a turning point where growth from digital revenues offsets declining sales of CDs, thanks to a combination of subscription services and tougher action on privacy.

Global revenues from digital music grew 8% in 2011 to $5.2bn. A slower rate of decline in sales of physical formats means that the overall market's drop slowed to 3%, at about $16.2bn.

Rob Wells, president of global digital business at Universal Music, the largest record label by revenues, predicted the "inflection point" where digital revenues overtook physical globally would occur in 2013, after the number of downloads overtook CD sales volumes in the US last year.

Wells and others insist that subscription music services such as Spotify and Rhapsody are providing incremental revenues, rather than cannibalizing "a la carte" download services, of which iTunes remains the largest.

The number of people subscribing to "all you can eat" music streaming leapt 64% to 13.4m globally in 2011.

"Some of those big global subscription players are only playing on a small playing field. Those services will expand over the next 12 months. As they mature, they are more likely to be bundled with ISP or [phone] operator subscriptions, which is where we start to see real scale.

IFPI, the music industry's international trade organization, says there has been a 26% reduction in peer-to-peer filesharing services since the introduction of France's "Hadopi" law to suspend presistent pirates' internet connections. ISPs have also been ordered to block piracy sites in New Zealand, Belgium, Austria, Finland, Malaysia, and India.

So it would seem that if the industry provides a legal alternative to piracy, a significant number of people will pay to use it...

 

[ThomasT]

Thomas try this.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/13/12/38707619.pdf

Thanks Evo. I read this. Really quickly, so I might have missed something. But, as far as I can tell, my primary concern remains unaddressed. That is, what number of people who downloaded free, pirated materials would have paid for those materials if they could not have downloaded them for free? And what did they download for free that if the free option wasn't available they would have paid for?

If those questions can't be answered, then, as far as I can tell, any assertions wrt the cost to the entertainment industry wrt the free downloading of copyrighted materials are just idle speculations.

 

[Evo]

A quick google reveals opinions pages from normal users; I haven't found any official news on it.

But I think we should keep it up and inform people of the misconception, or make a new thread, because it's spreading like wildfire all over social network sites.

His name is actually Miguel Caracaño. Hard to find anything in English, since it was local news in Spain, but I *AM* the google queen!

http://www.euroweeklynews.com/news/costa-del-sol/56024-marta-del-castillo--dna-find-adds-weight-to-accused%E2%80%99s-testimony

 

[Pythagorean]

haha, good work. So much damn information in the Google Sea nowadays.

 

[nitsuj]

You're badly wrong and this has been widely publicized for the past decade. Piracy has badly damaged the profits of the entertainment industry. Here's a study, with some simple factoids on page 5:
http://www.ifpi.org/content/library/DMR2011.pdf

Perhaps the clearest, to the point factoid is that from 2004-2010, the value of the global recording industry fell by 31%.

And applicable to the thread:

I haven't read the study, but "the value of the global recording industry fell by 31%" is too vague to be the clearest point. Unless your point was the recording industry is moving backwards.

If you want to call me badly wrong, note I said nill economic value. Please let me know the percentage of GDP for say the west combined is generated by copyrights that protect entertainment.

Lastly, my point is a copy of movie/music valueless. There is no figure on sony pictures balance sheet for all the copies of movies and music they plan on selling. They asset value of the copyright is [STRIKE]purely market[/STRIKE] strickley a market valuation.

viva la Hollywood!

 

[Evo]

I haven't read the study, but "the value of the global recording industry fell by 31%" is too vague to be the clearest point. Unless your point was the recording industry is moving backwards.

If you want to call me badly wrong, note I said nill economic value. Please let me know the percentage of GDP for say the west combined is generated by copyrights that protect entertainment.

Lastly, my point is a copy of movie/music valueless. There is no figure on sony pictures balance sheet for all the copies of movies and music they plan on selling. They asset value of the copyright is [STRIKE]purely market[/STRIKE] strickley a market valuation.

viva la Hollywood!

For those that post without reading the thread.

Analysis carried out in this report indicates that international trade in counterfeit and pirated products could have been up to USD 200 billion in 2005. This total does not include domestically produced and consumed counterfeit and pirated products and the significant volume of pirated digital products being distributed via the Internet. If these items were added, the total magnitude of counterfeiting and piracy worldwide could well be several hundred billion dollars more.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/13/12/38707619.pdf

 

[turbo]

If China would crack down on piracy, they would lose a lot of income in black markets, but western economies would get a boost. Perhaps copyright-holders would even reduce prices to penetrate the Chinese markets for more profits. After all, how much does a DVD of "Fast and Furious" cost to produce, package, and ship? The US "sticker price" of ~$15 is almost pure profit.

 

[nitsuj]

For those that post without reading the thread.


Analysis carried out in this report indicates that international trade in counterfeit and pirated products could have been up to USD 200 billion in 2005. This total does not include domestically produced and consumed counterfeit and pirated products and the significant volume of pirated digital products being distributed via the Internet. If these items were added, the total magnitude of counterfeiting and piracy worldwide could well be several hundred billion dollars more.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/13/12/38707619.pdf

"Could have been", "could well be", yea that's concrete enough for me to start prosecuting infringers and assign a severity of the economic impact. lol, several hundred billion! I'll have a go at spewing. The "lost" HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of revenue was spent on food, to heat the home & keep the lights on, to donate to charities, pay for health care, pay for education, instead of being spent on entertainment.

That figure of Several Hundred Billion has as much weight as my personal opinion on the matter, and that's what it amounts too, an opinion.


And I did read the excerpt, didn't bother with the link based on the excerpt.

There is a ton of theory out there on valuation. I'm gunna read about those.

 

[Pythagorean]

200 Billion? Well shoot, we should bail the pirates out then.

 

[xxChrisxx]

You're badly wrong and this has been widely publicized for the past decade. Piracy has badly damaged the profits of the entertainment industry. Here's a study, with some simple factoids on page 5:
http://www.ifpi.org/content/library/DMR2011.pdf

Perhaps the clearest, to the point factoid is that from 2004-2010, the value of the global recording industry fell by 31%.

Piracy... or entertainment liberation.

All that 'value' was delivered into the hands of the masses.

vive la revolution.

 

[Evo]

This thread is pointless. Six pages of the same thing.

 

[russ_watters]

I don't consider a study made by someone who claims to be "representing the recording the industry" (as seen on the first page of the PDF) to be unbiased. Sorry.

Too bad. The only place to get a company's profots is from the company.