COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Astronuc]

COVID-19 has done its damage because it is highly infectious. If it had a low infection rate in humans, we might never have noticed it.

There's a strong correlation between a virus that (by chance) is highly infectious to humans and a virus that causes a global pandemic.

That is the subject of a set of Wall Street Journal articles. The latest:
How Deadly Is Covid-19? Researchers Are Getting Closer to an Answer, Research suggests the new Coronavirus kills about five to 10 people for every 1,000 that it infects, though rate varies based on age and access to health care
July 21 (updated) https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-de...s-are-getting-closer-to-an-answer-11595323801
(subscription required)

July 24 - U.S. records 1,000 Coronavirus deaths for fourth day, some progress seen
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-fourth-day-some-progress-seen-idUSKCN24Q0R3

At least 1,019 fatalities due to COVID-19 were confirmed nationwide on Friday, following 1,140 on Thursday, 1,135 on Wednesday and 1,141 on Tuesday. Total cases across the United States rose by at least 68,800 on Friday to over 4 million.

The numbers have been driven in large part by a surge in infections in Arizona, California, Florida, Texas and California.

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html

According to Business Insider, Florida has surpassed New York in total cases.
Florida reports 414,511 (up from 402312 yesterday) confirmed COVID-19 cases, while NY reports 411,501 (up from 410450 yesterday). ncov2019.live has NY with 439089, which may include probable cases (~29000).
Florida - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
New York - https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map/

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york

https://ncov2019.live/data/unitedstates

 

[berkeman]

Research suggests the new Coronavirus kills about five to 10 people for every 1,000 that it infects

Doesn't that seem low? My local EMS Dashboard has Santa Clara County at 2% total right now, and I'm pretty sure I've seen overall US numbers more like 5%.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

 

[Astronuc]

Doesn't that seem low? My local EMS Dashboard has Santa Clara County at 2% total right now, and I'm pretty sure I've seen overall US numbers more like 5%.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

It depends on the model and denominator. The mortality rate based on confirmed cases is 2 to 6%, however, if the denominator includes expected cases, which some believe is 4 to 10 times the confirmed cases, then the number drops. Some early estimates indicated that 80% of those infected may not know they are or were infected. Most of the time, folks got tested if they presented symptoms, or were exposed. The nationwide (US) average is about 3.4%, while individual states vary from less than 1% to over 6%. NY State mortality rate is about 6.1% of confirmed cases, while Wa state is about 3% according the numbers I've been tracking. Of course, there may be deaths related to COVID-19 not counted, others who were counted by didn't have COVID-19 and folks who were infected who have not been tested.

 

[berkeman]

It depends on the model and denominator. The mortality rate based on confirmed cases is 2 to 6%, however, if the denominator includes expected cases, which some believe is 4 to 10 times the confirmed cases, then the number drops.

Thanks Astro. In a way that is encouraging...

 

[atyy]

Thanks Astro. In a way that is encouraging...

It shouldn't be considered as changing the picture much. Terminology varies, but basically, the infection fatality rate (IFR) has been distinguished from the raw case fatality ratio, with the IFR estimated from 0.3% to 1% since early in the outbreak.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ation-reports/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

 

[berkeman]

This looks like a promising development. I'd like to buy one plus some replacement filters...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/25/health/reusable-face-mask-mit-wellness-trnd/index.html

 

[berkeman]

It would be nice if they could modify the design to separate the two filters some so that deaf people could read our lips.

 

[atyy]

It would be nice if they could modify the design to separate the two filter some so that deaf people could read our lips.

Have you had to remove your mask when communicating with deaf people (especially in your emergency services work)?

 

[berkeman]

Have you had to remove your mask when communicating with deaf people (especially in your emergency services work)?

Not so far, but my EMS work is mainly as medical standby at large public events. I haven't had many of those shifts lately...

But it was pointed out to me recently that one of the hardest side-effects of everybody wearing masks is that deaf people can no longer use lip-reading to help their understanding. Other than transparent facemasks, I don't know how to help that.

 

[Astronuc]

It shouldn't be considered as changing the picture much. Terminology varies, but basically, the infection fatality rate (IFR) has been distinguished from the raw case fatality ratio, with the IFR estimated from 0.3% to 1% since early in the outbreak.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ation-reports/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

Yes, in terms of numbers, too many folks lost their lives, or became seriously ill, when most cases could have been prevented. As of yesterday, an estimated 4,158,341 confirmed cases with 138,692 deaths by covidtracking.com, or using cov2019.live, 4,310,721 confirmed cases and 149,324 deaths as of today in the US.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Compare to the recent flu season: estimated influenza illnesses: 39,000, 000 – 56,000,000; estimated hospitalizations: 410,000 – 740,000; estimated deaths: 24,000 – 62,000
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
https://www.rochesterregional.org/news/2020/01/flu-season-2020
Then there is the apples to oranges comparison
https://blogs.scientificamerican.co...u-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Nevertheless, we have more than doubled the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US since May.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121

Counting the total tests, and even positive and negative tests is complicated since some people may be counted more than once. Someone could be counted as negative and perhaps later as positive, and it's not clear how each county and state are counting folks who are tested more than once, or who are probable and not tested. Next year, or in the next two years, hopefully we'll have a chance to collect the data and better understand the data.

If it's one's loved one(s) who died, the statistics don't matter.

 

[bhobba]

Doesn't that seem low?

As well as the other factors mentioned it also depends on the death rate once you are bad enough to be put in ICU - that has large variability:
https://hellocaremail.com.au/australia-world-leaders-treating-covid-19/

There is no way that Australia's level of medical care is that much better than the US in ICU - if at all. And indeed likely more recent statistics than used above show a much better picture in the US:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076737v1

Bottom line there is variability in many of the figures used - some of which may be actual, while others likely depend on factors in collecting the data. As my stats professor used to say - Stats is like a bikini - it's the bits you do not see you want to know about. He was a funny guy. Stats was not my favourite subject, but I did all the electives (strictly speaking they let me self study one over a semester break due to timetabling constraints with Analysis B - I really enjoyed Analysis - I was weird) because I liked the lecturer.

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

Call more beds "ICU" or move more people to the ICU and your ICU death rate goes down - not from better treatment, just from including more milder cases. The non-ICU hospital death rate goes down as well because the most severe cases are moved out of that category.

 

[russ_watters]

12 players and 2 staff of the Miami Marlins baseball team tested positive today (or just found out today), after 2 players including the starting pitcher were scratched just before yesterday afternoon's game. So their game in Miami against the Orioles and Philly's game against the Yankees tonight are canceled (just the 4th game for each team):
https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/m...k-covid-19-philadelphia-yankees-20200727.html

Pennsylvania's guidelines (not law) says that people who travel from hotspots like Florida should quarantine for 2 weeks. Obviously, the Marlins didn't. Baseball's policy to be cleared is 2 negative tests in 24 hours and no symptoms for 72, but the 2 week waiting period is based on the incubation time, and evidently Baseball's policy doesn't account for that. Logically, that doesn't work, and while I hate to see it happen, I see no way for the season to continue unless the logic is ignored -- and the same goes for other sports. The only potential "out" for baseball is if playing outside in 95F weather, under the sun keeps the transmission rate down. Otherwise, this policy won't stop an outbreak, and it seems likely a very large number of baseball players are going to get infected.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Well, baseball is a non-contact sport. Mostly.

And we're still discussing how infectious asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people are. That means the answer can't be "hugely" or we would have an answer.

Also, major league players don't travel like real people. As has been said, "You know, you never handle your luggage in the show, somebody else carries your bags. It was great. You hit white balls for batting practice, the ballparks are like cathedrals, the hotels all have room service, and the women all have long legs and brains. " I would be less worried about a bunch of guys in their private jets than a Greyhound bus packed with people going through Bridgeport, Connecticut.

 

[russ_watters]

Well, baseball is a non-contact sport. Mostly.

And we're still discussing how infectious asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people are. That means the answer can't be "hugely" or we would have an answer.

Also, major league players don't travel like real people. As has been said, "You know, you never handle your luggage in the show, somebody else carries your bags. It was great. You hit white balls for batting practice, the ballparks are like cathedrals, the hotels all have room service, and the women all have long legs and brains. " I would be less worried about a bunch of guys in their private jets than a Greyhound bus packed with people going through Bridgeport, Connecticut.

While not crystal clear overall, the lower bound answer for the sport of major league baseball is: infectious enough for 14 people in one organization to get it at about the same time.

In 2 weeks or less we'll find out if they can transmit it to another team or umpires.

 

[OCR]

". . . the women all have long legs and brains. "

Bull. . . He never made a reference to "not allowing blondes". . . .

Mostly.

There is contact with the baseball, though. . . maybe that's not enough to be a

concern ?
Oh, wait. . . maybe they could wear gloves ? .

.

 

[Astronuc]

AP reports that Texas just increased the number of deaths due to Covid-19 by about 700.
https://apnews.com/8f3a26a9673bbaf86ae0026979bfd863

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Texas reported an increase of nearly 700 additional deaths from the COVID-19 virus due to a change in how the state collects fatality data, representing a grim surge in the state’s fight against the Coronavirus pandemic.

The new figures released Monday show the state now with 5,713 COVID-19-identified fatalities in Texas, compared with 5,038 reported Sunday. The new figures include 44 new deaths reported Monday.

 

[morrobay]

While not crystal clear overall, the lower bound answer for the sport of major league baseball is: infectious enough for 14 people in one organization to get it at about the same time.

In 2 weeks or less we'll find out if they can transmit it to another team or umpires.

Regarding infectious I wonder if there is any history of a baseball team in a in very identical environment* with about 1/3 of team getting infected with a common flu at the same time. * Being in close crowded contact in somewhat confined area for prolonged time.

 

[mfb]

And we're still discussing how infectious asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people are. That means the answer can't be "hugely" or we would have an answer.

It's difficult to quantify and you can't do controlled lab tests for obvious reasons. We know people spread virus particles before they show symptoms - the peak of that is about the time where symptoms start.

The US reached over 800,000 tests per day, that would be close to 10% of the population per month if we don't count people tested multiple times.

 

[Astronuc]

A 45-year old nurse practitioner died of complications related to COVID-19. One her attending doctors, Nathan Green, wrote a letter to the community concerning her death in order to dispel misinformation be propagated on social media.

SARS-CoV-2, or the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is a new virus that we still know very little about. Not only can the virus cause severe pneumonia and lung failure, but it can also cause unique cardiovascular injury. In some patients with COVID-19, the stress from the infection and inflammation causes small heart attacks that can be identified through blood tests. In other patients and for reasons that we don’t understand yet, COVID-19 causes clotting within the blood vessels that can result in heart attacks and strokes.

In addition, the virus can directly attack the heart muscle itself and cause a disease called viral myocarditis. Myocarditis can happen to anyone of any age and it is unpredictable who will become severely ill. Sometimes, the virus causes so much damage to the heart muscle that patients die from rhythm abnormalities or shock because their heart can no longer function.

Sadly, Samantha Hickey died from cardiac shock due to COVID-19 myocarditis. She was an otherwise healthy 45-year-old before becoming infected.

https://www.kivitv.com/news/samantha-hickeys-doctor-speaks-out-about-her-death

Hickey is the first known health care worker in Idaho to die of COVID-19.

 

[russ_watters]

Probably the most distrubing thing about the Phillies/Marlins incident is how it spotlights a known failing in the MLB COVID plan. This was written a month ago:

The parties' 101-page operations manual for 2020 does not address with any specificity how a season would proceed in the event of a Coronavirus outbreak within a team.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...2020-season-plan-play-pandemic-where-go-wrong

There's procedures for mitigating the spread (masks, social distancing, etc), procedures for handling individual players (*flawed, as I'll explain later), but no plan for responding to an outbreak itself. This is something, by the way, my clients have wanted to see from my company before I've been allowed to physically interact with them.

Here's how it went down:

• On Friday, before game 1, the Marlins' starting catcher was placed on the injured list without explanation (privacy reasons for the ambiguity), presumably due to a positive test.
• Sunday, 3 hours before the game, the starting pitcher and 2 others were pulled.
• The Marlins circulated a group text about whether or not to play the game, and pretty much unanimously agreed to play. The Phillies were notified and circulated a similar text.
• The game was played with little additional mitigation noted, save for a star outfielder wearing a mask, who didn't in the previous games.
• Monday, 10 more positive tests, and the night's games were cancelled.
• Today we'll get more results and see the next steps*.

What's striking in this timeline is that there was no automatic protocol in place to decide on action, and no league management decision-making. My company's protocol says that if one person tests positive at an office, the office is immediately shut down and cleaned. If a second tests positive, the site is closed for 14 days. There's no decision-making by individuals and even management's response is scripted. For baseball not to have a plan in place, and to play Sunday's game after circulating a group-text amongst the players is just plain crazy.

*Now for the next steps and the flaw in the individual response: as we all know, the incubation period can be up to two weeks. Baseball's plan does not include quarantining exposed players for more than the time it takes to do two tests in just over 24 hours. Presumably if nobody on the Phillies tests positive today (from tests Sunday and yesterday?), the Phillies will be playing the Yankees tonight, and continue their schedule (I'm not sure what happens with the Marlins). But it is nigh on impossible that anyone in the Phillies organization (this includes team and stadium staff, by the way) exposed this weekend to test positive today as a result. Logic dictates that they all be quarantined for 14 days, but that would destroy the season, so they aren't going to do it.

MLB has a "taxi squad" of [only] three replacement players for each team so they can swap-out individuals who are infected or were exposed, but it can't deal with swapping-out an entire organization.

My gut tells me if nobody gets a positive test today the season will continue uninterrupted except maybe 1 more day of canceled Marlins games, but by the logic most businesses and municipalities are using it should already be cancelled.

 

[StatGuy2000]

A 45-year old nurse practitioner died of complications related to COVID-19. One her attending doctors, Nathan Green, wrote a letter to the community concerning her death in order to dispel misinformation be propagated on social media.https://www.kivitv.com/news/samantha-hickeys-doctor-speaks-out-about-her-death

Hickey is the first known health care worker in Idaho to die of COVID-19.

I'm curious as to what extent the deaths recorded throughout the world due to COVID-19 are actually due to viral myocarditis. And I'm curious if certain individuals have greater predisposition to experience viral myocarditis than other patients.

I also wonder if there are documented cases of other viruses besides SARS-COV-2 causing viral myocarditis.

Update: According to the Mayo Clinic website, myocarditis can be caused by a number of different viruses besides COVID-19, including the commond cold adenovirus, hepatitis B and C, parvovirus (using causing mild rashes in children), and herpes simplex. Numerous bacteria (e.g. staphylococcus, steptococcus), parasites, and fungus can also cause myocarditis.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...r heart,a more general inflammatory condition.

 

[russ_watters]

Sorry for so many posts on this, but I find it a fascinating case study and emblematic of what I consider to be the cultural problems we're up against in the US in dealing with COVID.

My gut tells me if nobody gets a positive test today the season will continue uninterrupted except maybe 1 more day of canceled Marlins games, but by the logic most businesses and municipalities are using it should already be cancelled.

Four more Marlins tested positive, no positive tests yet for the Phillies. Both teams' games for tonight have been cancelled.

The Marlins' options are limited. With half the team testing positive, everyone in the organization has to be considered exposed, and out of commission for 2 weeks, whether sick or under quarantine for the incubation period. If they try to swap-out the sick staff and players for minor league replacements (they might), odds are good they will just keep infecting more people. Either way, the Marlins are going to be not playing or playing non-competitive baseball for the next few weeks.

Now, the Marlins aren't expected to be competitive this year, and that likely weighs-in to the decision by the commissioner of baseball, who doesn't seem to be making any of the decisions right now. The Phillies and Yankees are expected to compete, so shutting either down or replacing them with minor leaguers for 2 weeks would substantially alter the competitive situation in the league. I suspect the Phillies-Yankees series through Thursday will be canceled (thereby protecting the Yankees), but the Phillies may remain in limbo for some time due to the incubation period.

Meanwhile, hockey is set to restart in a bubble in Canada, and multiple tests of everyone in the league have come back with an extraordinary total of zero positive cases.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Sorry for so many posts on this, but I find it a fascinating case study and emblematic of what I consider to be the cultural problems we're up against in the US in dealing with COVID.

Four more Marlins tested positive, no positive tests yet for the Phillies. Both teams' games for tonight have been cancelled.

The Marlins' options are limited. With half the team testing positive, everyone in the organization has to be considered exposed, and out of commission for 2 weeks, whether sick or under quarantine for the incubation period. If they try to swap-out the sick staff and players for minor league replacements (they might), odds are good they will just keep infecting more people. Either way, the Marlins are going to be not playing or playing non-competitive baseball for the next few weeks.

Now, the Marlins aren't expected to be competitive this year, and that likely weighs-in to the decision by the commissioner of baseball, who doesn't seem to be making any of the decisions right now. The Phillies and Yankees are expected to compete, so shutting either down or replacing them with minor leaguers for 2 weeks would substantially alter the competitive situation in the league. I suspect the Phillies-Yankees series through Thursday will be canceled (thereby protecting the Yankees), but the Phillies may remain in limbo for some time due to the incubation period.

Meanwhile, hockey is set to restart in a bubble in Canada, and multiple tests of everyone in the league have come back with an extraordinary total of zero positive cases.

I have heard the news about the NHL resuming in a bubble, and no positive cases among the athletes (I suspect that part of this may be due to the lower cases of COVID-19 in the community in Canada compared to the US).

Given the news about MLB in the US (specifically with respect to the Marlins), I'm curious about what will happen to the upcoming NFL football or NBA basketball season in the US (not to mention other sports leagues, like lacrosse). My suspicions are that all of these will likely be canceled so long as there is widespread community transmission of COVID-19 circulating in much of the US (as is apparently the case at the moment).

Any thoughts from anyone?

 

[BillTre]

Sevaral days ago I posted about the film/ entertainment industry and how they are considering restarting business here and how they might compare to other industries like sports.
Post is here.
It sounds like the film people have it better figured out. Of course they have fewer people (grouped together) to deal with and are not bringing together people from different regions that might have greater rates of infection.

I have had my doubts about how well this was going to work but with all the different sports leagues each with a different approach, it had to get a complete picture of things.
Small groups with more complete isolation and a lot of testing will obviously work better, but I haave my doubts about a league's ability to force people into the necessary isolation.
The NBA might be a good example of this approach, but they are doing it in Florida, which does not seem a good idea.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

In South Korea, the professional baseball league KBO has been playing regular season games since May with no apparent problems (the league would apparently be required to shut down for three weeks if a single player or staffer tests positive for the disease), so it is possible to run a baseball season without creating major Coronavirus transmission events. Rather the issue is most likely with widespread community transmission in the US. This may bode well for the NHL (which will start its postseason this Saturday with teams isolated from the general public in "bubbles" in Edmonton and Toronto). The NBA is also following a "bubble" model for its postseason, isolating teams in Orlando. While Coronavirus cases are high in Florida, strict isolation of teams from the community could allow their postseason tournament to continue without interruption from disease outbreaks (and this would provide a good test of the "bubble" model).

If the MLB continues to have problems with infection among teams, this would not bode well for the NFL or the re-start of any other American sports regular season where players and staff are not isolated from their communities.

 

[ChemAir]

Any thoughts from anyone?

Realize that I am of the mind that the economic closures and coming business failures will be far more detrimental in long term life and health effects than Covid19. Making lots of people poor/broke will cause problems we will have to resolve in the future. Getting statistics on drug OD's, suicides, child abuse, crime, etc. hidden in this situation, will be very difficult to get in the current environment. Of course, we will have to wait for all the dust to settle to see what happened, if the data is available.

If the players want to play, and presumably make money, they will have to deal with exposure, and the clubs and players will have to decide how to mitigate it or more likely, simply accept it. Without the bubble idea, I expect more player infections. Pro leagues are in a very difficult spot, maybe an impossible one.

I do think watching the baseball games seemed a little silly, and mostly unreal, and less interesting than spring training. I'm not sure the energy of an actual crowd can be replicated with fake noise, and viewership is likely down. I don't think the pro league no attendance model is tenable (at least for people my age). It's definitely not going to pay down the mortgages for the hugely expensive properties they use.

If the MLB continues to have problems with infection among teams, this would not bode well for the NFL or the re-start of any other American sports regular season where players and staff are not isolated from their communities.

College sports will be interesting, maybe not in a good way. Players are not "employees" and really can't be kept isolated very easily without agreement and strict compliance. I doubt spread will be controllable in this group. The amount of money currently being floated by colleges, holding their athletic programs in "stasis", that anticipate huge losses is pretty scary.

I have little idea what data is good, bad, incomplete, misrepresented, and I am having a hard time making any decisions or policies based on what I read. I am, instead forced to speak with other business owners, and observe what I can actually see, and decide accordingly.

I have had one employee that was exposed to someone with CV19. When he was tested, I was told CDC guidelines changed, and the clinic that tested my employee wouldn't say he didn't have it (negative), and they wouldn't repeat the test because of the new guidelines. They would only tell me to look at the results, and they would not tell me their conclusions. So I am left trying to read a test result that isn't exactly clear, and not exactly helpful.

Based on concern of other employees (I didn't have a "negative" test for the guy, just "results"), I felt backed into a corner and sent the guy to an occupational clinic for a second test at my cost, roughly a week after the first one, possibly risking lawsuit by the employee because I was requiring something different than the previous clinic told him was CDC required.

As a business owner, I am being forced to read medical charts, and make medical decisions with limited guidance and little good information, and have to make employment decisions based on that, all while attempting to not break HIPAA guidelines. I suspect that with all the legal issues, it should be unsurprising that others (in MLB for instance) are in a spot where they simply have little alternative than just do what they can and wait and see.

We will either have sports with Coronavirus, or extremely limited sports, in my opinion.

 

[Secan]

https://www.healthline.com/health/how-long-does-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Why does the virus have time limit how long they last on surfaces? They don't eat nutrients. How can they starve? Is it not they can become dormant and live again? If you put items inside plastic bag and wait for a week before using them. What happened to the virus?

 

[collinsmark]

https://www.healthline.com/health/how-long-does-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Why does the virus have time limit how long they last on surfaces? They don't eat nutrients. How can they starve? Is it not they can become dormant and live again? If you put items inside plastic bag and wait for a week before using them. What happened to the virus?

Viruses don't eat nutrients outside of their host cells; they simply exist. Unlike cellular based micro-organisms, viruses do not respire; they don't undergo cellular respiration. This is why viruses are on the border of not being alive at all.

Viruses are much, much simpler than cells. A virus has just enough capability to hijack a living cell and make many, many copies of itself using the machinery of its host cell (ultimately killing the host cell in the process). And that's about it. Outside of the cell, the viruses don't do anything. They just exist.

To "kill" a virus quickly (destroy might be a better word here), anything that causes molecular changes will do. That's why soap & water, UV light, sanitizers, intense heat, etc, are good at quickly destroying viruses. To kill a virus slowly, so to speak, just take it out of its ideal conditions and something will destroy it eventually.

A specific type of virus needs specific types of living cells to reproduce. In absence of those cells, the virus merely exists until it breaks down (i.e., gets destroyed) by some other means. These other means could be anything. As a matter of fact, it's difficult to keep a virus from not breaking down over time, since the conditions would have to be just right (temperature, humidity, just the right kind of non-reactive surface, etc). You could keep a virus from breaking down in the long term (outside of living tissue, I mean) in a laboratory environment, but in normal everyday conditions, their time is limited.

 

[Astronuc]

That's why soap & water, UV light, sanitizers, intense heat, etc, are good at destroying viruses.

Basically anything that damages or destroys the outer surface (proteins) of the virus can stop it. UV light (sunlight) can destroy it, as can soap and water, or sanitizers like chlorine bleach solution, alcohols like ethanol and isopropyl alcohol (warning: do not use methanol!), peroxides, or Quaternary ammonium compounds (QACs).

 

[Secan]

Viruses don't eat nutrients outside of their host cells; they simply exist. Unlike cellular based micro-organisms, viruses do not respire; they don't undergo cellular respiration. This is why viruses are on the border of not being alive at all.

Viruses are much, much simpler than cells. A virus has just enough capability to hijack a living cell and make many, many copies of itself using the machinery of its host cell (ultimately killing the host cell in the process). And that's about it. Outside of the cell, the viruses don't do anything. They just exist.

To "kill" a virus quickly (destroy might be a better word here), anything that causes molecular changes will do. That's why soap & water, UV light, sanitizers, intense heat, etc, are good at quickly destroying viruses. To kill a virus slowly, so to speak, just take it out of its ideal conditions and something will destroy it eventually.

A specific type of virus needs specific types of living cells to reproduce. In absence of those cells, the virus merely exists until it breaks down (i.e., gets destroyed) by some other means. These other means could be anything. As a matter of fact, it's difficult to keep a virus from not breaking down over time, since the conditions would have to be just right (temperature, humidity, just the right kind of non-reactive surface, etc). You could keep a virus from breaking down in the long term (outside of living tissue, I mean) in a laboratory environment, but in normal everyday conditions, their time is limited.

I have many faceshields. So instead of washing them off immediately, i put used ones inside plastic bags for 5 days before washing hoping the virusus are less in numbers. So what temperature, humidity (?) or other environment variables can these Covid viruses be maintained? I don't want to inadventently have the environment that just maintains them. Remember we have unknown sources for spikes wordwide. Maybe the virus has adapted to our normal living room environment.

 

[morrobay]

Sevaral days ago I posted about the film/ entertainment industry and how they are considering restarting business here and how they might compare to other industries.

I would say the sports sectors are the most high risk. Besides the traveling and physical environment is the elevated and more forceful breathing during the games.

 

[Astronuc]

I have many faceshields. So instead of washing them off immediately, i put used ones inside plastic bags for 5 days before washing hoping the virusus are less in numbers. So what temperature, humidity (?) or other environment variables can these Covid viruses be maintained? I don't want to inadventently have the environment that just maintains them. Remember we have unknown sources for spikes wordwide. Maybe the virus has adapted to our normal living room environment.

Estimated Surface Decay of SARS-CoV-2 (virus that causes COVID-19)
on surfaces under a range of temperatures and relative humidity
https://www.dhs.gov/science-and-technology/sars-calculator

The higher the temperature and humidity, the shorter the half-life of the virus. Adding a sanitizer such as alcohol, or soap and water, further shortens the half-life of the virus. With respect to peroxide, I heard a presentation on the effectiveness of sanitizers, and the weaker peroxide (~3%) that one can readily buy in a store, e.g., supermarket and pharmacy, is not as effective as industrial peroxide, which is about an order of magnitude more concentrated (20-30%).

The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7132493/

Also - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7308628/

I've used alcohol (combination of ethanol and isopropyl) to wash and reuse masks. One should use a spray bottle for the alcohol, which can be a solution as opposed to pure alcohol. I've also seen recommendations of solutions of peroxide and alcohol, but haven't tried it. Ethanol is volatile, so one should use it in solution with water and/or isopropyl alcohol. Methanol is toxic (and can be absorbed through the skin), so do no use methanol in any form!

Leaving a mask in the sunlight in a hot car would also reduce the half-life of the virus, but the mask might deteriorate. Plastics also deteriorate with sunlight and heat.

Best to wash in alcohol solution and let sit a few days.

 

[Astronuc]

ABC/GMA - 11 a.m.: Florida reports new daily death toll record
In Florida, a record 191 new fatalities were reported in one day, according to data released by the Florida Department of Health Tuesday morning. The previous one-day record was 173 fatalities, reported on July 23.

Coronavirus cases in the state have jumped by 9,230, bringing the total to over 441,900, according to the Department of Health.

Florida has the second-most COVID-19 cases, behind California, and New York is now third in terms of positive cases.

 

[Rive]

i put used ones inside plastic bags for 5 days before washing hoping the virusus are less in numbers.

I don't think this is a good idea. Viruses are just one concern: if you 'park' the (used) items for some time you might get a bunch of bacteria and molds too. Especially if the storage is some enclosed space.

Just like used socks. The longer you store them in the bin the more ... seasoned they are