Get Vaccinated Against the Covid Delta Variant

[pinball1970]

PHE document with Variant data Feb 1st to Aug 15th

https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1012644/Technical_Briefing_21.pdf

Page 23 gives the summary for UK deaths under and over 50s from Covid Vaccinated vs unvaccinated.

One comparison, under 50 group, 27 deaths double vaccinated vs 72 deaths not vaccinated, the vaccinated group from 18-50 is still much bigger than the unvaccinated group.

At risk under 50 groups were vaccinated near first this means it is mainly healthy under 50s are dying.

I am also assuming that not many of those deaths were children. 25 youngsters died in the first year (link below) no vaccine till December, treatment was not as fine tuned and ICU was under much more stress.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...mic-claimed-lives-of-25-youngsters-in-england

 

[Laroxe]

a rather reasonable assessment of the latest situation

I'm disappointed with Dr Campbell in this video, what's a survey of people without a clue, supposed to mean? The fact is that the majority of virologists dismiss this idea, and geneticists have found no evidence of manipulation, despite the political pressure from the USA. Investigations by an international team of experts from the WHO and the various intelligence agencies from around the world, no evidence has been found or in fact any sensible motive. Remember at the G7 meeting when Joe Biden tried and failed to get support to pressure China.

I increasingly think that most of the discussions about disease control are based on the illusion that we can have a far greater influence on the behaviour of this pandemic than is warranted. Virtually all the problems we have seen, have in fact been seen before and shouldn't really have been a surprise.

The vaccine development was indeed impressive, largely because it was based on pre-existing research and a huge financial investment. In fact, a large majority of scientists were surprised at the results of the efficacy trials, which were extremely impressive. To be fair some virologists did sound a note of caution, this is an RNA virus with a large complex genome, RNA viruses replicate quickly but because of the limitations in RNA, exist quite close to the level of evolutionary possibilities. There is little room for genetic changes that are non-functional, most, automatically, lead to the viruses' death. This means all the mutations that do survive tend to be functional in their relationship with their host and impact on the virus's fitness. So for the virus, it is the structure and functioning of the host's defences that represent the most significant selective force and as antibodies selectively target important structural proteins on the virus, changing these proteins provides a selective advantage. It seems that its individual differences and adaptive immunity are a major driver for new variants.

The vaccine has a major impact on the effects of the disease in reducing serious illness and death, and it's likely that this will be improved over time, but we have to face the fact that we are now facing a disease that is circulating widely and still causing problems despite vaccination, we have modified the disease outcomes but not in a way that's likely to stop it. I think we need to look at the history of pandemics, particularly the previous Coronavirus pandemic, and take some lessons from that. We know that one of the common cold coronaviruses crossed species in the 1890's and there are records of a pandemic that caused around a million deaths, which was called Russian flu, it didn't have many of the features of flu, but they had nothing else to call it. It's thought as the disease swept through populations, very young children were exposed and like with the current disease developed immunity while experiencing mild illness. Increasingly the population was made up of people who had developed immunity early in life and with continued exposure maintained this immunity. This virus is still a common cause of disease, but is now associated with cold like symptoms. It's increasingly being reported that people who develop Covid-19 following two vaccinations seem to experience a modified disease which has more cold like symptoms.
This sort of adaptation is likely to take place over a number of years, and it seems that most historical pandemics seem to occur over periods of around 5 years.

 

[.Scott]

I'm disappointed with Dr Campbell in this video, what's a survey of people without a clue, supposed to mean?

That's was my first thought - but at the risk of Sheldon Cooper 1 advising Sheldon Cooper 2:

- at 8:20: "If we don't find out soon, we may not find out ever (and notice his continuing dismay)."
- at 9:30: "So basically what we're saying is here is the balance of opinion in American intelligence is that this was probably a laboratory leak although they have got the definitive data to know for sure yet. That seems to be the way they are leaning. (His spin is to promote the availability of "definitive data")."
- at 10:35: He says, quoting President Bush: "The world deserves answers and I will not rest until get them". He adds, "Of course I agree completely."
- at 10:45: He explains the potential consequence of not uncovering what happened. I would describe the value of an investigation to be the product of the probability of gain times the value of that gain. So he is now emphasizing the potential enormous benefits to finding out. I would point out that the general public is often swayed more by the "value of gain" that by the "probability of gain". So although he has weaker, less connected citations for "value of gain", to most, this is probably a more persuasive part of his argument.
- at 11:00: "billions of deaths"
- at 12:22: He starts the direct pitch for the survey.
- at 13:40: "I'm not saying that this is going to arrive at the definitive truth."
- at 13:50: "Now, I'm not going to give an opinion at this stage. I want you to vote for yourself." (Really?!? Isn't it nice of him to avoid tipping opinions before the vote. - I'm being facetious.)
- at 14:53: "Now, we could get large numbers on this. If we get something like a million people voting on this, this would be really quite significant. And whether it's going to change anything in the real world I don't know." (But that is his objective).

So he is pretty blatantly arguing as a plaintiff against the People's Republic of China.
In that role, it is appropriate to present an unbalanced view of the evidence.
He is clearly hoping to prod China into defending itself.
The Chinese government wants to appear reasonable and competent - it is their only claim for legitimacy as the rulers of China. So a wildly unbalance poll would have some weight in an attempt to push China to greater transparency.

 

[artis]

@Laroxe did you meant to say that pandemics typically last about 5 years from start to finish of the pandemic phase?

Anyway @Laroxe and @.Scott I understand your criticism but it seems to me that one big problem and factor for why so much suspicion arose around China has pretty much everything to do with their secrecy and political tactics. This of course on its own doesn't mean there was a lab leak but the way China had dealt with the aftermath and the rhetoric really doesn't help their cause. I mean their lockdowns were swift but not the information sharing. After all we are talking about a country that uses concentration camps for it's own citizens as part of their "justice" system.

And quite frankly if they know the virus had a natural origin then why behave like an innocent man who is trying to cover up someone else's murder weapon (the virus)? When you have nothing to hide you grant all and any access to international inquiries and investigations.
This wasn't the case back in spring 2020 and even now China is reluctant to engage fully.
https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pa...-audit-wuhan-lab-in-study-of-covid-19-origins

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...9244601/china-who-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory
https://healthpolicy-watch.news/chi...or-next-phase-of-covid-origins-investigation/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56054468
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/31/asia/who-report-criticism-intl-hnk/index.html

I am slow to rush to judgement as to the origin of the virus and maybe Dr. Campbell has given into that sweet youtube ad revenue... but I am also slow to defend China and I think that is a sane and warranted position.

 

[atyy]

And quite frankly if they know the virus had a natural origin then why behave like an innocent man who is trying to cover up someone else's murder weapon (the virus)? When you have nothing to hide you grant all and any access to international inquiries and investigations.

One point of view:
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/docu...Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf
"These actions reflect, in part, China’s government’s own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China."

It's also worth reading this perspective of the independent international members of a joint WHO–China team
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02263-6
"... Before the report was released, formal statements to the WHO from some governments were circulated in February, with three contentions: that China had not shared data adequately; that we had paid insufficient attention to the lab-leak hypothesis; and that our scientific conclusions were influenced by China’s political stance regarding transmission through the food chain. ..."

And
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00991-0
The origins of SARS-CoV-2: A critical review

 

[.Scott]

Since we're citing the reports from "18 US intelligence agencies", I think we might want to take a look at exactly what these agencies are. As it happens, the US Director of National Intelligence has posted a membership list of such organizations which numbers - you guessed it: 18.

But before I post this list, let's take a look at how it was that all 18 were tasked with coming up with an assessment. Even before Biden took office, there was an issue over what the US intelligence community knew about this - and this is where the "low confidence that is was spread naturally" came out. Of course, that just begs the question - why was their confidence low. Unfortunately, the answer certainly lies behind "sources and methods" - the most important elements of National Security Information.

So a "solution" mentioned and apparently adopted was to disseminate the raw information to 18 agencies that have personnel cleared for all the required classification compartments. I suppose it was suppose to answer the question of what most people might conclude if they had all the information available to the US intelligence community.

So here's the list - quoted from the website above:

The U.S. Intelligence Community is composed of the following 18 organizations:

• Two independent agencies—the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA);
• Nine Department of Defense elements—the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the National Security Agency (NSA), the National Geospatial- Intelligence Agency (NGA), the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), and intelligence elements of the five DoD services; the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force.
• Seven elements of other departments and agencies—the Department of Energy’s Office of Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence; the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis and U.S. Coast Guard Intelligence; the Department of Justice’s Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Drug Enforcement Agency’s Office of National Security Intelligence; the Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research; and the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis

Here's my opinion just based on what I know of the working of government - though I did have to look up that DEA group.

ODNI: This group routinely handles reports from all of the other 17 organizations. They should be able to look at the information and place it in its appropriate category. In all likelihood, if it found itself with a different conclusion that the CIA, it would have asked the CIA for clarification.

CIA: The CIA will have whatever resources it needs to evaluate this intelligence. In fact, when it's important enough, the CIA has all of those other agencies available as resources.

DIA: The DIA may well look at this as a potential Biological Order Of Battle issue. If US troops encountered the Chinese or China-back forces, should we expect bio weapons. Certainly a degree of paranoia is appropriate.

NSA: Certainly the NSA was a key contributor to the intelligence package that was being passed around. Would they have give material that they sourced undo weight? Given their expertise and what parts of the package they could understand, how could an NSA employee avoid such bias?

NGA and NRO: I can just imagine the conversation when this hit their desks. Who in this organization are we going to give this to?

Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force: Even the newly formed Space Force? Perhaps they asked Elon Musk what he thought. In all cases, they would have taken the task seriously.

Department of Energy’s Office of Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence: They could judge the report by China's reputation alone.

Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis: They would be a consumer of the original CIA report. If they didn't agree, they would have discussed it with the CIA.

U.S. Coast Guard Intelligence: Certainly, if you're looking for a Joe Sixpack opinion, this is as good a place as any. But really, who in the Coast Guard is going to understand the biological evidence - and how much weight should be applied to it?

FBI: This is a good source for a second opinion. They would have all of the resource needed to evaluate the raw intelligence data.

DEA's Office of National Security Intelligence: I had to look this one up. My guess is that they could populate a small team among their 680+ to do something reasonable in the way of an opinion. They may even have a scientist or two with relevant experience.

Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research: Excuse my for some sarcasm here, but the first thing that comes to mind is Hillary Clinton and her penchant for convenient communications over securing classified information. They certainly have involvement in this issue, but I wonder if anyone there even bother to read the full intelligence package. Whether they did or not, I'm sure they would have responded to the President's request diplomatically.

Department of the Treasury’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis: No background in Biology, but they would have taken the task seriously and likely responded with some enthusiasm.

 

[nsaspook]

And quite frankly if they know the virus had a natural origin then why behave like an innocent man who is trying to cover up someone else's murder weapon (the virus)? When you have nothing to hide you grant all and any access to international inquiries and investigations.

IMO China is trying to hide the horrendous illegal trade in endangered, exotic, wild animals that traditionally have been the sources of theses types of pandemics in the past.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-covid-s-origin-points-to-china-animal-trade

But the most plausible theory, say experts involved in the mission, concerns China’s wildlife trade for food, furs and traditional medicine, a business worth about 520 billion yuan ($80 billion) in 2016.

Live animals susceptible to Coronavirus infection were present at the Huanan food market in downtown Wuhan, the city where the first major Covid-19 outbreak was detected. It’s possible they acted as conduits for the virus, carrying it from bats -- likely the primary source -- to humans, says Peter Daszak, a zoologist who was part of the joint research effort, which saw international experts visit Wuhan earlier this year after months of stonewalling by the Chinese government.

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/...06 - Wildlife Trafficking - Final Version.pdf

 

[artis]

Well as I said even if the virus has a zoonotic origin it really doesn't help a single bit that all the involved parties have their agendas and parts they try to hide. It also just helps to build upon the misconceptions of which there is a multitude that float around societies. These are partly to blame for extra unnecessary deaths. Now sure you could say the conspiracy fools are to blame and they are, but truth be told whenever you withhold information or don't allow full transparency rumors start to circulate.

Not to mention the fact that China has on a government level put forth the conspiracy of US soldiers bringing the virus to them. A fabrication so dumb it could be a punchline for a 90's sitcom.

Also just so that you know , I know for a fact that Russia for example is using this pandemic and the associated mistrust of some parts of the public towards their governments to build even more paranoia by using certain key people that spread misinformation. They of course get paid while the little folks die from complications in a hospital bed. This is happening in Europe right now.
The pandemic to them and to others is just another tool to use.

 

[Laroxe]

@Laroxe did you meant to say that pandemics typically last about 5 years from start to finish of the pandemic phase?

Anyway @Laroxe and @.Scott I understand your criticism but it seems to me that one big problem and factor for why so much suspicion arose around China has pretty much everything to do with their secrecy and political tactics. This of course on its own doesn't mean there was a lab leak but the way China had dealt with the aftermath and the rhetoric really doesn't help their cause. I mean their lockdowns were swift but not the information sharing. After all we are talking about a country that uses concentration camps for it's own citizens as part of their "justice" system.

And quite frankly if they know the virus had a natural origin then why behave like an innocent man who is trying to cover up someone else's murder weapon (the virus)? When you have nothing to hide you grant all and any access to international inquiries and investigations.
This wasn't the case back in spring 2020 and even now China is reluctant to engage fully.
https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pa...-audit-wuhan-lab-in-study-of-covid-19-origins

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...9244601/china-who-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory
https://healthpolicy-watch.news/chi...or-next-phase-of-covid-origins-investigation/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56054468
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/31/asia/who-report-criticism-intl-hnk/index.html

I am slow to rush to judgement as to the origin of the virus and maybe Dr. Campbell has given into that sweet youtube ad revenue... but I am also slow to defend China and I think that is a sane and warranted position.

I was quoting one of the researchers on TWiV, they talked about getting control, so I don't think its a set time frame. I think they were making the point that there are important other factors that will play an important role, people got a bit carried away with the predictions about the vaccines.
I don't think its true that China withheld information, they certainly did with SARS but it really looks like they learned from that. It was on 27th December that a Dr in Wuhan alerted the authorities to a potentially new disease, it was a relatively small number of cases in a large city and putting the world on alert for something that might simply disappear risks international embarrassment. However, they did start an immediate investigation and only 3 days later they sent out an Urgent notification & stepped up the investigation. China informed the world of their findings and on 12th January they shared the genome sequence which was the foundation of the global research effort. All of this happened before the west started to experience the disease and many in fact simply ignored the information being made available.

Wuhan went into lockdown on the 23rd Jan with Donald Trump praising their efforts and transparency. The link has a nice timeline. I think its was the increasing criticism of western governments for their failures that prompted a search for a scapegoat, and as the accusations increased so did china's defensiveness. I'm not even sure what they are being accused of, when people talk about a lab leak, is it an accident? they have happened in the past but the biosecurity at the Wuhan labs is considered very impressive, a bioweapon? I could have made a better one than this.
While all these intelligence agencies in the US, all under pressure say they don't know, remember that every other country has intelligence agencies and some have better access to China, most of them think they do know. Pandemics happen, and not just to humans and viruses, particularly RNA viruses, are masters of adapting to new hosts.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-...he-coronavirus-outbreak-QgTpKdT6o0/index.html

 

[Astronuc]

The US passes 40 million positive cases and nearly 650 K deaths due to coronavirus. Daily average hospitalizations = 101,510.

According to the Houston Chronicle, Texas pediatric COVID hospitalizations mark a record over this past weekend with 345 admissions on Saturday and 307 on Sunday. There were 51,904 positive COVID cases among Texas students since August 29.

Edit/update: Washington Post reports "Miami-Dade County Public Schools are reporting at least 13 employee deaths from Covid-19 since mid-August, . . . ." That's only three weeks!

 

[bhobba]

The US passes 40 million positive cases and nearly 650 K deaths due to coronavirus. Daily average hospitalizations = 101,510.

And here in Aus, some news outlets are spruiking how great it is in the US with people going to sports matches etc. and life essentially returning to normal. They compare it to here in Aus, where most are locked down and, on occasion, police overstepping how they should handle infringements. Some even call Australia a 'banana republic' because the Armed Forces are helping out. BTW they do it all the time when we have emergencies like bush fires etc. What they forget to mention is we have only had about 1050 deaths. Yes, it is blowing up our economy; we are coming across to others like scared rats when Australians were thought, rugged individualists. Large debt will burden future generations. And yes, the overstepping of police needs to be called out - it has far too many times been cringeworthy and unnecessary. The same with many unnecessary rules. One Chief Medical Officer (CMO) even admitted a rule was unnecessary - it was there so people understood how serious this was. It is for the elected government to make choices like that. But how successful we are/were at controlling the virus needs to be included in any assessment. There is also significant political shenanigans happening, but that is off-topic here. And opening up with 80% over 12 years old vaccinated is a very laudable aim (some even want it to include under 12's) as per our plan agreed by the federal government and all the states:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07...ur-phase-plan-out-of-covid-pandemic/100339314

There are no easy answers to this pandemic. You take the good with the bad. Did Aus do the right thing? I really do not know.

If others have a view interested in hearing it. We might even need a separate thread.

Thanks
Bill

 

[artis]

Well if one wants to see how a country looks like where public trusts their government and their government is forthcoming and doesn't overstep their bounds one should look at Denmark. They obey rules and are as vaccinated as it gets. They have now opened up and no problems so far.
As for countries that don't want to vaccinate that much well nature will vaccinate them one way or the other. The US is being vaccinated right now as we speak...

But then again if I am vaccinated and healthy do I really care about someone who will rather sell his house than get a shot? I guess not, allowing people to die is part of the human rights that we hold so dear isn't it?I got infected before vaccines were available so back then it was basically every man for himself.

 

[artis]

Interesting story, someone who has had a previous infection and a double moderna dose should have been really well protected given natural infection presents the full genetic material of the virus to the immune system + the two dose moderna vaccine is a strong vaccine (higher dose per shot than pfizer) and also I read from clinical trials that moderna offers even better immunity for Delta than pfizer.

Could it simple be that those who have a very mild first infection as the man in the video don't develop a good immune response? Although I guess it depends from person to person.Anyway I am wondering when Covid could maybe mutate out of existence. Can't be that a virus can hit the jackpot multiple times in a row?
I understand natural selection is pushing it such that only the more antibody resistant variants can survive as well as the more infectious ones, but and this is the important part that I want to know, isn't there just a limited number of possible "states" or configurations the individual proteins and parts of a virus can assemble into and still be functioning ?
In other words I guess I am asking when will this "son of a B..." run out of options and reach it's career top after which there is only downhill.
Someone please correct me but IIRC for any organism the ratio of bad mutations to beneficial is something like 100:1 ?
Does this differ from larger organisms like animals vs small RNA viruses ?
The mutation rate is much higher for viruses but how about the ratio of beneficial vs deleterious?

 

[PeroK]

The US passes 40 million positive cases and nearly 650 K deaths due to coronavirus. Daily average hospitalizations = 101,510.

According to the Houston Chronicle, Texas pediatric COVID hospitalizations mark a record over this past weekend with 345 admissions on Saturday and 307 on Sunday. There were 51,904 positive COVID cases among Texas students since August 29.

Edit/update: Washington Post reports "Miami-Dade County Public Schools are reporting at least 13 employee deaths from Covid-19 since mid-August, . . . ." That's only three weeks!

It's difficult to see how the US can emerge from the COVID pandemic without being able to progress the vaccination programme in line with other developed countries. Death by freedom?

 

[nsaspook]

It's difficult to see how the US can emerge from the COVID pandemic without being able to progress the vaccination programme in line with other developed countries. Death by freedom?

Eventually the unvaccinated will acquire immunity the dangerous way.

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/1035157226/miami-covid-19-deaths-schools-district

According to the president of United Teachers of Dade, Karla Hernandez-Mats, all of those who died were African American and unvaccinated.

Get the shot please.

 

[bhobba]

It's difficult to see how the US can emerge from the COVID pandemic without being able to progress the vaccination programme in line with other developed countries. Death by freedom?

Well, that's the experience in Aus. Where the virus is and people are dying the vaccine takeup rates are spectacular - in many places over 90%. One place of a few thousand people virtually 100%. But in places that have kept it out - much less. Where I am in Queensland 52% last I heard. I will let others draw the obvious conclusion about the psychology involved.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

It's difficult to see how the US can emerge from the COVID pandemic without being able to progress the vaccination programme in line with other developed countries. Death by freedom?

Yes, it is very sad and troublesome to see the many preventable hospitalizations and deaths.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/a...ors-fear-a-covid-peak-may-still-be-weeks-away
As overrun Idaho hospitals ration care, doctors fear a COVID peak may still be weeks away. The Idaho Hospital Association believes the case load will peak in October! It means that some patients may die so that others might survive. Idaho has sent some patients out of state, likely to Oregon (Portland) and Washington (Seattle), and some might go to Utah (Salt Lake City), which is having its own challenges.

The situation has been predictable and preventable.

Elsewhere, too many decide too late that they should get the vaccination.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ovid-vaccination-megan-blankenbiller-hospital

Megan Alexandra Blankenbiller "first announced that she'd gotten COVID-19 on Aug. 13 with a video of herself in the hospital. Blankenbiller died nine days after her last video was posted Aug. 15, CNN reported. She was 31. Before her death, she'd made appointments to get vaccinated with her mother and sisters, but she became sick before she was able to get the vaccine, . . ."

Imagine if the next variant, or next virus, is more virulent (contagious) and deadlier. I'm thinking in the context of a recent case of Nipah virus in Kerala state, India.
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/1035137211/nipah-virus-india-death-kerala
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nipah-virus-outbreak-india-kerala/Edit/update - More than 252,000 children were diagnosed with COVID-19 last week nationwide in the US. ABC states that on average, 365 children are hospitalized with COVID every day.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/officials-health-care-rationing-spread-idaho-79895419

https://abcnews.go.com/US/mississip...on-significant-number-covid/story?id=79931539

 

[morrobay]

Eventually the unvaccinated will acquire immunity the dangerous way.

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/1035157226/miami-covid-19-deaths-schools-district



Get the shot please.

And get to your high school weight. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/cov...le-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html

 

[Laroxe]

Interesting story, someone who has had a previous infection and a double moderna dose should have been really well protected given natural infection presents the full genetic material of the virus to the immune system + the two dose moderna vaccine is a strong vaccine (higher dose per shot than pfizer) and also I read from clinical trials that moderna offers even better immunity for Delta than pfizer.

Could it simple be that those who have a very mild first infection as the man in the video don't develop a good immune response? Although I guess it depends from person to person.Anyway I am wondering when Covid could maybe mutate out of existence. Can't be that a virus can hit the jackpot multiple times in a row?
I understand natural selection is pushing it such that only the more antibody resistant variants can survive as well as the more infectious ones, but and this is the important part that I want to know, isn't there just a limited number of possible "states" or configurations the individual proteins and parts of a virus can assemble into and still be functioning ?
In other words I guess I am asking when will this "son of a B..." run out of options and reach it's career top after which there is only downhill.
Someone please correct me but IIRC for any organism the ratio of bad mutations to beneficial is something like 100:1 ?
Does this differ from larger organisms like animals vs small RNA viruses ?
The mutation rate is much higher for viruses but how about the ratio of beneficial vs deleterious?

It is an interesting case but one of the problems in relying on natural infection is the variability in the response, people respond very differently. In people who have very severe disease the virus actually attacks the immune system, destroying the germinal centres responsible for producing the T and B cells. This wouldn't be the case here, and so far the severity of the disease doesn't seem a good indicator of the immune response, apart from in the very severely ill. The variability however remains, and vaccines do produce a more predictable response.

It's really not a very reassuring story and there seemed to be a note of desperation in the attempts to support vaccination. I'm not sure it helped, we really have to learn to tolerate some uncertainty in the outcomes, we still don't have definitive answers, sometimes, I don't know works.

You're actually right about evolutionary change having limits, in fact RNA viruses do live on the edge of possibilities, with few mutations actually being compatible with survival. They make up for this with having very high rates of reproduction and not investing many resources in error checking the genetic material. This increases the risk to their offspring from mutations, but you only need a few to survive when you reproduce so quickly. I don't think you can expect natural selection to come to our aid to wipe out an organism, the selection is for variants that increase reproductive fitness. However while antibody avoidance does clearly offer fitness advantages its unlikely to be a good long term solution, our immune system, also the product of evolution, alters and refines its response to changes in the virus. So, for both us and the virus we need to consider all the other factors or at least those we know, that can change the nature of a disease.

While many biological organisms seem to have developed a sort of fetish for being unpredictable, we can still try. The virus needs a victim to reproduce, it needs time and then it needs to be transmitted to others in a viable form. We often fear diseases which strike people down suddenly, causing severe disease and rapid death, consider Ebola. However, from the virus's perspective this isn't a good strategy, the fact that people automatically limit their contacts when they are ill and the speed of death simply doesn't give the virus time to spread easily. The disease, because of what it does, has so far been restricted to relatively local outbreaks. Rather worryingly, the early outbreaks had a case fatality rate @ 80%, during the more recent outbreaks it was around 60%, it may be getting milder and that's not good. However, in principle a mild disease is less likely to alter people's behaviour or even evoke wider treatment or containment methods, Ebola might have missed its chance.

Remember, we have other Coronavirus diseases that have jumped species in the past and the ones that adapted well to their human hosts, spread globally and are still with us, they cause colds. We don't know much about what happened after the disease became established in humans, but it may be that what we are seeing now is a re-run of similar events in the past. The most recent was in the 1890's according to genetic studies and occurred alongside a pandemic of an unknown disease that killed around a million people, they described it as Russian flu. Now, children tend to be exposed to this virus when they are young and tend to avoid harm and with continuing exposure there is a very high level of population immunity and the disease it causes is usually mild. Note the qualifiers in that sentence "tend" and "usually", I expect we will have to learn to live with each other. This is quite a common view among virologists, but it is still a form of informed crystal ball reading and there are some viral diseases in which none of this actually happened.

 

[Astronuc]

AP, Perth ‘Paradise’: Australian states free of COVID resist opening
https://apnews.com/article/lifestyl...nd-australia-4a799c79f8226d7eef23a5ddc37a4e6c

PERTH, Australia (AP) — It can seem like Australia’s west coast has almost entirely avoided COVID-19.

A mask-free nightlife is thriving and huge crowds are turning out for sporting events, including 53,000 rugby fans who crammed into a Perth stadium to watch New Zealand’s All Blacks defeat Australia’s Wallabies on a recent sunny Sunday.

“We are in paradise,” said one of those fans, Andrea Williams, who is all for the region continuing to defy the federal government and maintain strict border restrictions that keep it separated from the pandemic raging in large parts of the rest of Australia.

Sydney and Melbourne are doing lockdowns - again.

While the cities of Sydney and Melbourne in the east have been in strict lockdown with a surge of virus cases, the Western Australia state capital of Perth has largely remained open for business — behind its shut borders.

 

[nsaspook]

AP, Perth ‘Paradise’: Australian states free of COVID resist opening
https://apnews.com/article/lifestyl...nd-australia-4a799c79f8226d7eef23a5ddc37a4e6cSydney and Melbourne are doing lockdowns - again.

A lack of concern about the virus in Western Australia is reflected in the lowest vaccination rate in the country, at 36.3%, followed by Queensland at 36.4%. The national vaccination rate is 40.4%.

I wish them well but do they really think their border isolation will stop the Delta virus for much longer?

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/co...d-border-cold-stay-until-april-ng-b881999362z

Mark McGowan has dropped a border bombshell, revealing WA could remain closed to COVID-stricken eastern States until April.

While he has acknowledged he “can’t keep the State locked forever”, the Premier told The West Australian that WA’s reopening date could still be seven months away.

 

[bhobba]

AP, Perth ‘Paradise’: Australian states free of COVID resist opening
Sydney and Melbourne are doing lockdowns - again.

Probably a psychological reason for it, but as an Aussi, it is CRAZY. I am in one of those states that are continuing lockdowns with no cases. The premier (same as a US state governor) knows and has publically stated; the virus will breach the lockdown. But she wants the time free of the virus to allow as many as possible to be vaccinated before it happens. It, however, is working in reverse - states free of the virus do not have high vaccine rates. Those that have the virus, and deaths, have, as I mentioned, sky-high vaccination rates in those areas where it is bad.

As I said, CRAZY.

Just as an aside, there is a lot of discussion in Aus about vaccine passports within Australia. That is not necessary if we get 90% or more vaccinated. I am hopeful that will happen, and we do not possibly encroach on peoples rights. Only the courts can really decide if vaccine passports encroach on your rights because your right to do what you want must be balanced against other rights such as freedom from people recklessly endangering your life. I have no idea what the courts will decide, but best if it never comes to that.

You can see the vaccination figures here:
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ule-tracking-chart-percentage-new-cases-today

But remember, in those areas hardest hit, vaccination rates are sky-high.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ivan Seeking]

All of the counties in dark blue are at, near, or beyond 100% ICU capacity.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

 

[PeroK]

Eventually the unvaccinated will acquire immunity the dangerous way.

That method may be too slow. The US vaccinated 50-60% of the population in a couple of months. It may take a year or more for the remaining 40% to get COVID, by which time everyone may be vulnerable again.

The risk is that you can never escape the cycle.

That said, the UK is also in desperate straits as our government lost its way regarding vaccinations and anti-COVID measures about two months ago and we're as almost as bad as anywhere in the world again. Despite the high vaccination rates we have in the adult population.

 

[bhobba]

The situation has been predictable and preventable.

Indeed. I have been reading the details of several models being used in Aus, e.g.:
https://burnet.edu.au/system/asset/...ination_and_intermittent_control_measures.pdf

They are not taking into account some recent knowledge, such as the 22% reduction in Phizer efficacy every 30 days against Delta and the third dose having 95% efficacy (how long that lasts is unknown).

Here is the one Australia is currently using for policy decisions:
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/doherty-institute-modelling-report-for-national-cabinet

My back of the envelope calculations suggests a 90% vaccination rate is what is needed for opening. We can begin at 70% but need at least continuous light restrictions until the 90% third dose is achieved.

90% can be done but likely will not be easy. But then again, some areas have already achieved it (one now has 100%), so I may be too pessimistic. We will see.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

My back of the envelope calculations suggests a 90% vaccination rate is what is needed for opening. We can begin at 80%, but starting at 70% is a bit risky.

I think it could be ok if it is the right 70%. For example, if that means that 100% of ages 60 and up are vaccinated.

Denmark is opening up.
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-first-eu-lift-coronavirus-restrictions/
They have only 70% of adults 18+ fully vaccinated (double jabbed). However, their coverage is distributed towards the age groups at highest risk.
https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#age-group-tab
70+: >99%
60-69: 97%
50-59: 94%

 

[pinball1970]

That method may be too slow. The US vaccinated 50-60% of the population in a couple of months. It may take a year or more for the remaining 40% to get COVID, by which time everyone may be vulnerable again.

The risk is that you can never escape the cycle.

That said, the UK is also in desperate straits as our government lost its way regarding vaccinations and anti-COVID measures about two months ago and we're as almost as bad as anywhere in the world again. Despite the high vaccination rates we have in the adult population.

I think dire straits is putting it a little strong.

Yes 40,000 cases per day now is very high but it has been a fairly steady not exponential rise since end of July.

Out of lock down since June should we not have expected cases to rise and stay high? Until everyone has either had it and recovered or died?

These cases per day we are getting now are not translating to deaths we were getting in previous waves 150-200 per day now compared to 4000 per day in Jan.

We are also at a quarter of the hospital cases per day compared to January.

 

[PeroK]

I think dire straits is putting it a little strong.

Yes 40,000 cases per day now is very high but it has been a fairly steady not exponential rise since end of July.

Out of lock down since June should we not have expected cases to rise and stay high? Until everyone has either had it and recovered or died?

These cases per day we are getting now are not translating to deaths we were getting in previous waves 150-200 per day now compared to 4000 per day in Jan.

We are also at a quarter of the hospital cases per day compared to January.

Scotland, where the schools went back early, is now as bad as anywhere in the world. Another lockdown is on the cards. And there's a risk that the UK goes on the red list of other countries.

True, it's not as bad as it might have been. But, it doesn't look good.

The other problem is how to keep the schools open.

PS and the 5th test against India was canceled today. Things are definitely out of control if cricket is a casualty.

 

[pinball1970]

That method may be too slow. The US vaccinated 50-60% of the population in a couple of months. It may take a year or more for the remaining 40% to get COVID, by which time everyone may be vulnerable again.

The risk is that you can never escape the cycle.

That said, the UK is also in desperate straits as our government lost its way regarding vaccinations and anti-COVID measures about two months ago and we're as almost as bad as anywhere in the world again. Despite the high vaccination rates we have in the adult population.

Do we keep kids out of school until everyone left to be vaccinated is vaccinated and/or numbers come right down again?

2 weeks full lockdown?

My understanding is they will not be vaccinating (healthy) children so they will all get it eventually.

Between 800-900,000 per age in the UK so abut 15 million kids 16 and under plus those who could not get it and those who refused it.

About 23M people in total.

Long Covid is a concern but the link below says kids do tend to recover after a couple of months.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00198-X/fulltext

23M is a fairly large reservoir for hostile mutations too, would four or five million vaccinations stop that process though?

It will be a pain for parents, teachers, sports cancelled, music venues, hospitals will be busier but not overrun, there will be a lot of sick days and people will die but in lower numbers.

It is just an opinion but at some point we have to function with covid, then in about 12 months everyone will be jabbed or have had it or both.

 

[PeroK]

It's just my opinion but we've been hit by a combination of cowardice and vacillation by the government's scientific advisers and a lack of decisive government.

Realistically, we had to vaccinate secondary school children over the summer and speed up the second round of vaccinations. This is not with hindsight.

If you look at the stats, many countries like Spain have now overtaken us on total vaccinations. Every week we fall further behind what other countries are doing.

Objectively we should lockdown and close the schools and vaccinate everyone who wants it, but that's a last resort now. We've thrown it all away.

Instead I fear we will endure a severe autumn and winter of COVID. Living with COVID at European levels and living with COVID at UK levels are two different things.

 

[pinball1970]

It's just my opinion but we've been hit by a combination of cowardice and vacillation by the government's scientific advisers and a lack of decisive government.

Realistically, we had to vaccinate secondary school children over the summer and speed up the second round of vaccinations. This is not with hindsight.

If you look at the stats, many countries like Spain have now overtaken us on total vaccinations. Every week we fall further behind what other countries are doing.

Objectively we should lockdown and close the schools and vaccinate everyone who wants it, but that's a last resort now. We've thrown it all away.

Instead I fear we will endure a severe autumn and winter of COVID. Living with COVID at European levels and living with COVID at UK levels are two different things.the Summer is gone Pero...

The summer has already gone Pero...
Also should we vaccinate kids? All of 11-16? So about 5 million?
In terms of possible vaccine accidents we are looking at 1/100,000 so from 5 million from that age range 50 accidents.
Compared to expected Covid deaths in that age range?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

That method may be too slow. The US vaccinated 50-60% of the population in a couple of months. It may take a year or more for the remaining 40% to get COVID, by which time everyone may be vulnerable again.

The risk is that you can never escape the cycle.

So like the "common cold" [other Corona viruses] you can catch it again and again. And each time you get it you may suffer neurological, vascular, lung, or heart damage, making you more vulnerable the next time you get it. And slowly but surely it continues to degrade your health year after year until eventually you die the all too predictable, inevitable, miserable death on a respirator.

Or not. Just thinking... :)

 

[PeroK]

The summer has already gone Pero...
Also should we vaccinate kids? All of 11-16? So about 5 million?
In terms of possible vaccine accidents we are looking at 1/100,000 so from 5 million from that age range 50 accidents.
Compared to expected Covid deaths in that age range?

There's no other way out for the country as a whole. I don't know that we are talking about 50 deaths (*), but certainly the overall impact of 5 million unvaccinated children attending school (or trying to) and spreading COVID is the problem.

Let's say that you really don't want to vaccinate children, then I suggest you need a lockdown for all children and close the schools.

If you don't do either, then the risk is that several million of those children get COVID for real - and infect several million adults. And, by a lack of courage to actually do something, we condemn ourselves to another grim six months for the entire country with no prospect of getting COVID under control. That carries its own risks of undermining what we have achieved.

And, if we lose another 10,000 people of all ages between now and next April, then you can hardly complain.

(*) PS There were 147 deaths in the UK just today. And, the full impact of the school's returning hasn't hit England yet.

 

[Evo]

And get to your high school weight. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/cov...le-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html

It didn't help that they were not allowed to wear masks in school due to Florida's Governor's NO masks in school mandate. Masks in school may have saved their lives.

EDIT: My mistake, according to this article

Carvalho said that among the 13 deaths, the majority of people contracted COVID-19 and died before the beginning of the school year. One person had direct contact with students, he said.

Miami-Dade students returned to the classroom on Aug. 23 with a requirement that they wear masks as a spike in infections and deaths has continued to plague Florida.

The mask mandate was a violation of an order signed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis barring schools from requiring that students wear face coverings and leaving that decision to their parents.

DeSantis has withheld funding from two school districts that violated his order

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/1035157226/miami-covid-19-deaths-schools-district

 

[bhobba]

I think it could be ok if it is the right 70%. For example, if that means that 100% of ages 60 and up are vaccinated.

I am sorry for not being clear. That is exactly what I was suggesting as per the Burnett model and a 60% vaccine effectiveness. On average, it is likely higher than that and will get better as more get three doses.

Thanks
Bill