COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[jack action]

Letting it run through the population is not even guaranteed to work.

With this disease, nothing is. Otherwise it would be easy to make a decision. In such a case, letting nature runs its course is as good a decision as any.

We all know what happens when it gets in a nursing home - the death rate is something like 37% - and the women is 94 years old - what chance has she got?

I'm guessing her chance of survival is 63%?

https://sherbrooktimes.com/a-veteran-dies-from-a-fall-after-having-been-defeated-by-the-coronavirus/86278/ Sometimes, life's funny that way. (not ha!ha! funny)

 

[anorlunda]

We all know what happens when it gets in a nursing home - the death rate is something like 37% - and the women is 94 years old - what chance has she got?

From another post earlier in this thread, a local nursing home experienced many deaths in just a few weeks. But the article also said that 100% of the residents had advanced care directives that forbade ventilators or resuscitation. The hospital says that they could have saved them, but the advanced directives prevented the possible treatments.

So that suggests that the preexisting state of health is not the only factor contributing the the high death rate in nursing homes. A bit of public education for nursing home residents could help. They might want to consider revoking or amending their advance care directives if they would like to survive COVID.

I have such a directive, but I was motivated by the prospect of stroke or getting into a vegetative state lasting years, or otherwise becoming a permanent invalid. A virus from which I could recover in a few weeks, was not a scenario I though about.

 

[mfb]

With this disease, nothing is. Otherwise it would be easy to make a decision. In such a case, letting nature runs its course is as good a decision as any.

No guarantee of a specific outcome doesn't mean all options are equally good. I'm not guaranteed to die if I jump from a tall building, and I'm not guaranteed to survive if I take the stairs. I don't even have accurate numbers for the risks, but I certainly prefer the stairs. I'm quite sure you do the same.

 

[jack action]

No guarantee of a specific outcome doesn't mean all options are equally good. I'm not guaranteed to die if I jump from a tall building, and I'm not guaranteed to survive if I take the stairs. I don't even have accurate numbers for the risks, but I certainly prefer the stairs. I'm quite sure you do the same.

With the case at hand, it is more like comparing jumping from a tall building with jumping from an airplane. Or comparing taking slippery stairs with taking an elevator which has an history of poor maintenance. The "I certainly prefer ..." sentence is not that easy to state in such cases.

The choice is between destroying the quality of life of everyone (for sure, but still have to choose at what level) vs letting everything follow its course and hope for the best. The thing is that no matter the choice that is made, we will never know what would have been the outcome if we chose otherwise, only speculate. And even if we knew, how much suffering for everyone is worth a life? Difficult comparison to quantify, yet not negligible.

We've been shown many pessimistic mathematical models showing unending exponential growth. But even while doing nothing to stop the spreading of the Coronavirus (almost encouraging it), https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-08-21/brazils-coronavirus-spread-on-stable-or-downwards-trend-who-says with only 1.75% of its population infected. Maybe all other countries are just involved in a fight that they will ultimately loose. It will only take more time and waste more resources to reach the same numbers.

For me it is really not an "I certainly prefer ..." case. The reality is that nobody has any experience with that kind of pandemic and everybody is speculating about the possible results. Too many emotions, too many people trying to blame someone, too many people trying to avoid blame from others and not enough scientific facts.

 

[mfb]

The choice is between destroying the quality of life of everyone (for sure, but still have to choose at what level) vs letting everything follow its course and hope for the best.

A vaccine is neither of these choices.

We've been shown many pessimistic mathematical models showing unending exponential growth.

Yes, and then people took measures to avoid that - both on an individual and on a government level. That includes Brazil.

You think Brazil finds enough of its cases to give three significant figures? I don't even trust the first one.

 

[bhobba]

You think Brazil finds enough of its cases to give three significant figures? I don't even trust the first one.

Nor do I.

In the case I posted about the person most worried was the daughter who was very upset she could loose her mother. Evidently, just like my father when he got old, she was 'philosophical' about death. I remember when my father was dying I was ready to come up from Canberra to see him. My mum begged me not to come up - she didn't want me to see him in that state. My sister who was there said it was quite possible he could have pulled through, but he gave up and refused to eat. I rang him every day, he was lucid, but would occasionally start crying, he was so moved at me ringing him. I often think maybe I should have ignored my mothers wishes. It is very hard knowing what to do with aged relatives.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Borg]

I have a question about vacationing these days. My wife and I are considering renting a condo on the beach that doesn't appear to be in a crowded area. We would not be going to restaurants but would cook all of our meals in the condo. On the beach, we would stay well away from others even if we have to drive to a less populated area nearby. Obviously, there is risk the minute you leave your home but I think this would limit our exposure as much as we can. Thoughts?

 

[Vanadium 50]

Are you in your 70's or 80's?

 

[russ_watters]

I have a question about vacationing these days. My wife and I are considering renting a condo on the beach that doesn't appear to be in a crowded area. We would not be going to restaurants but would cook all of our meals in the condo. On the beach, we would stay well away from others even if we have to drive to a less populated area nearby. Obviously, there is risk the minute you leave your home but I think this would limit our exposure as much as we can. Thoughts?

I don't see a significant risk. Ventilation doesn't get any better than when you are outside and people work hard to social distance at the beach.

 

[Borg]

Are you in your 70's or 80's?

Not for a few years yet but my mother-in-law lives with us and she is in her 80's. We definitely don't want to bring it home.

 

[gmax137]

I would be more concerned with the travel conditions from home to the beach and back. Personally, I would avoid airline flight right now. Close quarters with lots of strangers has no appeal to me. I have no issue driving myself.

 

[Borg]

We're planning on driving without any stops except for gas.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's up to you, but as you describe it I think the bigger risk is travel (including rest stops) than the destination.

 

[atyy]

I have a question about vacationing these days. My wife and I are considering renting a condo on the beach that doesn't appear to be in a crowded area. We would not be going to restaurants but would cook all of our meals in the condo. On the beach, we would stay well away from others even if we have to drive to a less populated area nearby. Obviously, there is risk the minute you leave your home but I think this would limit our exposure as much as we can. Thoughts?

Do you have masks (medical mask preferably, for when you need to go to shops)?

Wash your hands well with soap and water before touching your face, flossing etc.

Not for a few years yet but my mother-in-law lives with us and she is in her 80's. We definitely don't want to bring it home.

You can safe distance from your mother-in-law for 2 weeks after you get home.

 

[Borg]

Thank you all for the input. I appreciate it.

 

[nsaspook]

Some of the nation’s leading public health experts are raising a new concern in the endless debate over Coronavirus testing in the United States: The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.

Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time. But researchers say the solution is not to test less, or to skip testing people without symptoms, as recently suggested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Instead, new data underscore the need for more widespread use of rapid tests, even if they are less sensitive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be.
The usual diagnostic tests may simply be too sensitive and too slow to contain the spread of the virus.

Alt link: https://dnyuz.com/2020/08/29/your-coronavirus-test-is-positive-maybe-it-shouldnt-be/

 

[Astronuc]

We're planning on driving without any stops except for gas.

I just did 2900 mile (4666 km) over 4 days. I mostly stopped for gas, but occasionally used a rest room, or went inside a shop to buy food. Most people were wearing masks, and most places had signs posted about wearing a mask and maintaining distance inside the establishment. Outside, many people were not wearing masks. It is a matter of using good judgement.

At three hotels, the front desk counters had some kind of plastic shield, and in one case, a table set in front of the counter (about 6 foot distance from customer to hotel employee), and I signed the paperwork on the table.

 

[Astronuc]

How an intimate wedding in rural Maine led to the state’s largest COVID-19 outbreak during August
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08...outbreak-disaster-that-spread-hundreds-miles/
More than 100 cases of COVID-19, including one death, have been linked to an Aug. 7 wedding reception in Millinocket, Maine, that violated attendance limits.

 

[gmax137]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

Alt link: https://dnyuz.com/2020/08/29/your-coronavirus-test-is-positive-maybe-it-shouldnt-be/

Interesting, thanks @nsaspook

The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.

This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus, called the cycle threshold, is never included in the results sent to doctors and Coronavirus patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are.
In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.

 

[atyy]

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...me-doubles-down-on-discipline-amid-case-spike
"The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign had implemented a mass Coronavirus testing program for staff and students in an effort to keep virus spread on campus under control. But on Wednesday, the university reported rising numbers of positive Coronavirus cases and announced a two-week lockdown for undergraduates."

"At a press conference held over Zoom, Nigel Goldenfeld, a physics professor who contributed to the school's reopening plan, said the campus's models had already anticipated parties and people not wearing masks — but they did not take into account that students would fail to isolate, that they would not respond to local health officials' attempts to contact them or that students who had tested positive would nonetheless attend and host parties. "

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/collection-of-lame-jokes.25301/post-6388223

Nigel Goldenfeld wrote a famous textbook on critical phenomena
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0201554097/?tag=pfamazon01-20

 

[atyy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

Alt link: https://dnyuz.com/2020/08/29/your-coronavirus-test-is-positive-maybe-it-shouldnt-be/

For that reason, in Singapore, a positive PCR test does not prevent one from being released from quarantine.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...criteria-for-releasing-covid-19-patients.html
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...rged-21-days-new-time-based-criteria-12809278

That has been the policy since late May. There were already indications from papers several months earlier, eg. this paper released as a preprint in March, and published in April.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x
"The prolonged viral shedding in sputum is relevant not only for the control of infections in hospitals, but also for discharge management. In a situation characterized by a limited capacity of hospital beds in infectious disease wards, there is pressure for early discharge after treatment. On the basis of the present findings, early discharge with ensuing home isolation could be chosen for patients who are beyond day 10 of symptoms and have less than 100,000 viral RNA copies per ml of sputum. Both criteria predict that there is little residual risk of infectivity, on the basis of cell culture. "

 

[atyy]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31866-3/fulltext
Safety and immunogenicity of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine in two formulations: two open, non-randomised phase 1/2 studies from Russia
Denis Y Logunov et al

"The heterologous rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based COVID-19 vaccine has a good safety profile and induced strong humoral and cellular immune responses in participants. Further investigation is needed of the effectiveness of this vaccine for prevention of COVID-19."

 

[Ygggdrasil]

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...me-doubles-down-on-discipline-amid-case-spike
"The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign had implemented a mass Coronavirus testing program for staff and students in an effort to keep virus spread on campus under control. But on Wednesday, the university reported rising numbers of positive Coronavirus cases and announced a two-week lockdown for undergraduates."

"At a press conference held over Zoom, Nigel Goldenfeld, a physics professor who contributed to the school's reopening plan, said the campus's models had already anticipated parties and people not wearing masks — but they did not take into account that students would fail to isolate, that they would not respond to local health officials' attempts to contact them or that students who had tested positive would nonetheless attend and host parties. "

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/collection-of-lame-jokes.25301/post-6388223

Nigel Goldenfeld wrote a famous textbook on critical phenomena
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0201554097/?tag=pfamazon01-20

One wonders why the university turned to physicists to model the spread of the virus rather than people with expertise in epidemiology. Maybe epidemiologists wouldn't sign off on the plan? Or maybe the epidemiologists knew that the situation would be too difficult to accurately model whereas physicists are always overconfident in their ability to build a mathematical model (whether or not it produces accurate results).

If UIUC cannot prevent the spread of the disease throughout its student population even with a massive testing regime, this does not bode well for the likelihood of other universities to be able to hold in person classes.

Another relevant XKCD:

 

[Astronuc]

"At a press conference held over Zoom, Nigel Goldenfeld, a physics professor who contributed to the school's reopening plan, said the campus's models had already anticipated parties and people not wearing masks — but they did not take into account that students would fail to isolate, that they would not respond to local health officials' attempts to contact them or that students who had tested positive would nonetheless attend and host parties. "

State University of New York opened up campuses. One campus in Oneonta, NY has reported:

507 positive cases since the start of the fall semester,​

46 students in quarantine on campus,​

117 students in isolation on campus,​

and that is just one campus. Students, and maybe staff and faculty are bringing the Coronavirus to campus and spreading it.

https://suny.oneonta.edu/covid-19

As a result of the infections, SUNY Oneonta is sending all students home for the rest of the fall semester after hundreds of Coronavirus cases have been reported so far this school year.
https://abc7ny.com/suny-oneonta-college-covid-on-campus-reopen-new-york/6405321/

Another smaller campus has seen more than a doubling of cases to 50 students, but no faculty or staff! In other words, the students are bringing the Coronavirus to campus and infecting the rest of the community.

 

[gleem]

One wonders why the university turned to physicists to model the spread of the virus rather than people with expertise in epidemiology.

Perhaps the same reason that the President's Task Force on COVID Virus appointed a neuroradiologist as Chief they wanted someone that will support their goals.

 

[Vanadium 50]

One campus in Oneonta, NY

New York imposed a 14-day quarantine. Is it not working?

 

[vela]

One wonders why the university turned to physicists to model the spread of the virus rather than people with expertise in epidemiology.

I suppose it's because physicists are pretty good at developing models like this. Plus the article didn't say the models were developed solely by physicists or without input from others. It just said Goldenfeld contributed to the reopening plan.

From the article, I didn't get an impression there was some misguided political agenda driving the university's decisions. It sounds like they underestimated the stupidity of a small number of students.

 

[mfb]

State University of New York opened up campuses. One campus in Oneonta, NY has reported:
507 positive cases since the start of the fall semester,46 students in quarantine on campus,117 students in isolation on campus,and that is just one campus. Students, and maybe staff and faculty are bringing the Coronavirus to campus and spreading it.

Out of 6500 students, do I see that right? Almost 10% got it?

A quarantine can at best help against out-of-state cases but does nothing to prevent spread among people who were in the state already.
There are also different rules how this works in households with multiple people. In some places they need to join the quarantine I think, in some places they don't have any restrictions. But even if they have to join a 14 day quarantine: Let person A infect person B after a week, and you can easily get someone who leaves the quarantine while being infectious.

 

[atyy]

One wonders why the university turned to physicists to model the spread of the virus rather than people with expertise in epidemiology. Maybe epidemiologists wouldn't sign off on the plan? Or maybe the epidemiologists knew that the situation would be too difficult to accurately model whereas physicists are always overconfident in their ability to build a mathematical model (whether or not it produces accurate results).

Their modelling has made positive contributions.
https://physics.illinois.edu/news/article/36490

It sounds as if they overestimated the civic-mindedness of students.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...me-doubles-down-on-discipline-amid-case-spike
"Wednesday's letter to students called out specific cases in which students had failed to work with local health officials on contact tracing, and one instance where a student posted a video to social media attempting to show how to manipulate the campus app that tracks testing results. About 100 students and organizations are facing discipline — including suspension — for behavior over this past weekend, including for hosting parties and for breaking quarantine, according to the note sent to students."

 

[Astronuc]

New York imposed a 14-day quarantine. Is it not working?

I don't know the answer. It's not clear, but I believe that anyone testing positive must quarantine for 14 days, at least. Anyone traveling to NY State from one of many restricted states must either show a negative test result or must quarantine, and perhaps be tested. I don't know how that is enforced except for those arriving at a port of entry, e.g., an airport. If one is passing through a state on the restricted list, the quarantine does not apply, if one spends less than 24 hours in the state. Apparently, they have not considered if one travels through 8 restricted states over 3 days.

 

[anorlunda]

At a press conference held over Zoom, Nigel Goldenfeld, a physics professor who contributed to the school's reopening plan, said the campus's models had already anticipated parties and people not wearing masks — but they did not take into account that students would fail to isolate,

It sounds like they underestimated the stupidity of a small number of students.

To me it seems obvious. It was not because they were students, it was because they were drunk. The modelers didn't model intoxicated people.

The whole purpose of social drinking is to lower inhibitions. That leads to loud voices, no masks, and no social distancing. The government action that could have a positive effect would be a ban on public consumption of alcohol, in bars, on beaches, in parties, and all other settings. Not total prohibition, but a more restrictive ban.

If that didn't work, then a ban on parties of any size, public gatherings, or total prohibition would be the next more drastic step.

 

[Astronuc]

Out of 6500 students, do I see that right? Almost 10% got it?

About 500 students out of 6500, or about 7.7% of the students.

SUNY had elaborate plans for 64 campuses. https://www.suny.edu/campus-reopening/
That affects a little over 400,000 students, based on enrollment last autumn. https://www.suny.edu/about/fast-facts/

Each campus has their own plan.
SUNY New Paltz reports on 6 active cases and 1 recovered. https://www.newpaltz.edu/coronavirus-info/
The student population is 6807 undergraduates and 950 graduate students; faculty 344 full-time and 323 part-time. https://www.newpaltz.edu/about/glance.html

I don't know what testing is done before students arrive, and it's possible that testing and other precautions vary among the 64 campuses.

Pre-kindergarden, Kindergarden and grades 1-12 are supposed to start next week. Some learning will be done online, but I'm not sure how uniform that will be across the system.
http://www.nysed.gov/coronavirus/guidance-p-12-schools

 

[brainpushups]

Another relevant XKCD:

 

[vela]

To me it seems obvious. It was not because they were students, it was because they were drunk. The modelers didn't model intoxicated people.

That doesn't explain students who hosted, not just attended, parties when they knew they had tested positive.

 

[russ_watters]

That doesn't explain students who hosted, not just attended, parties when they knew they had tested positive.

I feel fine tho