COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Ivan Seeking]

When Covid is over, what are you going to do about the annual 3 million deaths in the US? You could save 40,000 lives a year by banning road transportation, for example. Why wouldn't you do that if it would save 40,000 lives and half a million serious injuries a year?

So first you tried to argue that 400,000 deaths are not significant [or less meaningful than 80 years ago], and now you are changing the subject? Okay, ;) I was just doing a body count. It isn't complicated.

I didn't say we should ban anything. Why are you?

 

[PeroK]

So first you tried to argue the deaths are not significant, and now you are changing the subject? Okay, ;)

I admit it was not a good argument in that post. To stick to the subject.

Of course the deaths are significant. But, they are not comparable with the deaths in WWII. My grandfather fought in WWI and died in 1978 aged 96. If he had died in 1915, that would have been a very different matter. You cannot put the death of a young soldier and a very old man in the same category.

 

[russ_watters]

This is not really a valid comparison. The US is a country of 330 million people...

It's even worse than that. To really put large historical disaster death tolls in context, you need to normalize for the difference in population. Today's US population is more than double what it was in WWII. Looking further back, that's why the civil war wasn't just 60% worse than WWII, it was 440% worse, killing 2.1%(!) of the US population at the time vs 0.39% for WWII.

Similarly, the Spanish flu killed 675,000 Americans. Is COVID a third as bad...?

It's a convenient, provocative, tweet-sized factoid/comparison, but lacking context it implies something different from reality. Repeating: being factually true is not the same thing as being valid.

 

[Astronuc]

At least 2,597 new Coronavirus deaths and 219,944 new cases were reported in the United States on Dec. 8. Over the past week, there has been an average of 207,024 cases per day, an increase of 18 percent from the average two weeks earlier.

NY Times, December 09, 2020, 12:04 am

We will probably reach/pass 300,000 deaths due to Covid-19 in 10 days.

In the US, the spread of SARS-Cov-2 has not been contained, and while it is now affecting a lot of younger people and many seem to have mild symptoms, if at all, younger folks are adversely affected, and some fatally so.

(CNN) - Erika Becerra was eight months pregnant when she was diagnosed with Covid-19. In November, she was induced and gave birth to a healthy baby boy.
. . .
Becerra, 33, was one of the 15,658 Covid 19 deaths over the last seven days, making it the deadliest week for the Coronavirus since April in the US. For the sixth day in a row, more than 100,000 people are being treated for the virus in hospitals across the country.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/08/us/covid-death-pregnant-mom-trnd/index.html
Becerra may have contracted the Coronavirus during a hospital stay.

On Halloween, Washington Middle School student Peyton Baumgarth, 13, became the youngest person in Missouri to die of COVID complications.
https://khn.org/news/article/a-childs-death-in-the-heartland-changes-community-views-about-covid/

In September, 74-year-old Ralph Struckhoff died of the disease. The Missourian newspaper published a story describing him as a healthy man who had just done a day of construction work at his church before he fell ill.

Between August and November 23, the total COVID count in Franklin County, with a population around 104,000, climbed from 728 (0.7% of 104k) to 4,594 (4.4% of 104k), and deaths rose from 19 to 75. In the week ending Nov. 23, 25% of COVID tests returned positive results.

Some hospitals' ICUs are full, and staff are stretched.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-09/covid-hospitals-full

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/
As of today, California reports 1,421,089 positive cases and 20,273 deaths due to Covid-19.

New York has reported more than 20.9 million tests (cumulatively since beginning of March), which exceeds the population of the state by about 1.5 million! Obviously one can contract the Coronavirus after a negative test.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Worldmeter reports 3243 deaths in the US today - the first time we have surpassed 3000 deaths in one day. 225,000 new cases.

I find that you can take the number of deaths today, and in about three weeks you will have 2% of that as the number of deaths for the day. With that, we should be seeing 4000 deaths a day to ring in the new year. Some experts have stated that we could see as many as 6000 deaths a day. Of course a lot of this is a matter of choice.

 

[nsaspook]

Finally some good news, kids can continue to play outside at playgrounds in California.

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/outdoor-playgrounds-can-open-ca-now-says/

San Francisco Recreation and Park Department General Manager Phil Ginsburg released a statement on playgrounds reopening:

“I am thrilled our children will be allowed to safely play in neighborhood playgrounds again. Playgrounds are not luxuries. They are essential spaces, particularly for kids in dense, urban neighborhoods. A large body of research has shown playgrounds boost mental and physical health, sharpen problem solving and coping skills, and even ease the effects of trauma. I am grateful to Governor Newsom and Mayor Breed for making a decision based on both science and equity and prioritizing the wellbeing of families.”

The original stay-at-home order, announced on December 3, had allowed “outdoor recreational facilities” to remain open (without food and drink sales) but closed playgrounds.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Coronavirus cases are overwhelming hospitals in Indiana, and the governor to order hospitals statewide to cancel or delay elective surgeries into the new year:

Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb said Wednesday hospitals are ordered to cancel or delay elective surgeries from Dec. 16 to Jan. 3.

The announcement came as Indiana looks for options to fight the nation’s second highest per-capita COVID-19 spread, straining its health care system.

“The state of Indiana is on fire,” Holcomb said, noting doctors and nurses are “overwhelmed.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/subu...0201209-ue3zumvnbjgbfldlxgsvojr5gi-story.html

 

[atyy]

Covid: Australian vaccine abandoned over false HIV response
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-55269381

Too bad, I was hoping this would work. I'm stocking up on -80 freezers

 

[Ivan Seeking]

COVID-19 Hospitalization Tracking Project

COVID-19 Hospitalizations by County
Data reported weekly by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-estimated-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state.
https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project

 

[OmCheeto]

What's with those Vermonters, not wanting to join the party?

[ref]

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Covid: Australian vaccine abandoned over false HIV response
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-55269381

Too bad, I was hoping this would work. I'm stocking up on -80 freezers

The University of Queensland vaccine was a recombinant protein vaccine, and fortunately, there is another recombinant protein vaccine candidate from Novovax that is currently in clinical trials. Phase I/II data for this vaccine look promising, and the https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-covid-19-vaccine-clinical-development-progressthat interim results from its n=15,000 phase III trial in the UK could be available in early Q1 2021. Here's a nice news piece on Novovax from Science: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ompany-end-producing-best-coronavirus-vaccine

Medicago is also developing a recombinant protein vaccine and has released a non-peer-reviewed pre-print of their phase I trial results that also look promising. The company has partnered with GSK for a phase II/III trial, though that trial just began ~ 1 month ago, so results will still take a while.

 

[mfb]

What's with those Vermonters, not wanting to join the party?

Hawaii is even lower. But it's a set of islands, and maybe the climate helps as well.

Why is "green" blue?

 

[atyy]

Why is "green" blue?

It's Chinese :) https://www.theworldofchinese.com/2013/06/what-color-is-qing/

or Japanese https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ao_(color)

 

[Vanadium 50]

What's with those Vermonters, not wanting to join the party?

Vermont is one of the least urbanized states, along with Maine. Maine, however, has the highest fraction of old people.

But by now surely we have recognized that these change over time. Alabama missed the 1st wave. Alaska missed the first two. Colorado and New Jersey missed the 2nd and caught the 1st and 3rd. New York got hammered in the 1st, missed the 2nd, and has a typical or slightly below 3rd.

 

[bhobba]

What's also not clear is how many of the Covid deaths were/are truly avoidable. If take Australia or Japan or South Korea as a benchmark, then almost every one of the 1.5 million deaths globally was avoidable. Is that really the case? That seems to me an almost impossible question.

I think the US tried the best it could. Now it's up to the vaccine. Australia will not start rolling it out until they can take on board other countries experiences - expected March. The US does not have that luxury - they must inoculate ASAP.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

Vermont is one of the least urbanized states, along with Maine. Maine, however, has the highest fraction of old people.

But by now surely we have recognized that these change over time. Alabama missed the 1st wave. Alaska missed the first two. Colorado and New Jersey missed the 2nd and caught the 1st and 3rd. New York got hammered in the 1st, missed the 2nd, and has a typical or slightly below 3rd.

How does California fit into that mix? They seem to be off the charts headed the wrong way. Oregon and Washington seem have flattened the latest wave with moderate restrictions.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/11/california-covid-19-coronavirus-surging

Despite aggressive early lockdown measures, cases and deaths are now surging. How did things get so bad?

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/

 

[BillTre]

I think the US tried the best it could.

Nice thought, but I have to disagree.

The efforts of the US to prevent ameliorate covind-19 infections were pathetically inept and damaging.
I, as a fish biologist, could have done a better job.

 

[nsaspook]

Nice thought, but I have to disagree.

The efforts of the US to prevent ameliorate covind-19 infections were pathetically inept and damaging.
I, as a fish biologist, could have done a better job.

Because the president doesn’t actually have any inherent constitutional power in this pandemic the 50+ efforts in the US should be examined to evaluate the type of job they each did.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/03/25/trump-or-governors-whos-the-boss/

In particular, states enjoy unchallenged primacy in what constitutional scholars call “police powers”—those involving the health, safety, and well-being of their citizens. In exercising these powers, they may require citizens to do things—such as staying at home or getting tested—that some may resist.

I see this as a good thing. Would you want the entire country under the Florida or North Dakota containment strategy for the last 9 months?

 

[mfb]

Because the president doesn’t actually have any inherent constitutional power in this pandemic the 50+ efforts in the US should be examined to evaluate the type of job they each did.

He still has a massive influence on the actions of the individual states - and the people in these states.

After the UK, now the US, Canada, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia approved the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (now called "Tozinameran") for some uses. The EU and Japan pre-ordered many doses but didn't approve it yet - that will probably happen soon. The cold chain requirements limit it to wealthier countries.

 

[mfb]

Sweden is playing the outlier again, with Denmark having a worrying trend as well.
Norway and Finland are at ~100 new cases per 100k in the last two weeks, Sweden is at 750.

Belgium is at 280, Spain is at 220.

Harald Hänisch, one of the leading anti-lockdown protesters in Germany died. There is no official statement about the cause of death, but it's not too difficult to guess what could have made him need intubation before.

 

[Vanadium 50]

How does California fit into that mix? They seem to be off the charts headed the wrong way. Oregon and Washington seem have flattened the latest wave with moderate restrictions.

Here's CA (solid) compared to the US as a whole (dashed):

As for comparisons, Russ posted this a week ago:

I keep hearing from government/news media that the current outbreak escalation is caused primarily by small family/friend gatherings, not schools, restaurants and businesses. If that's true, then another lockdown might not just be futile, it could make the situation worse.

If this is the case, it means that at best lockdowns are only secondarily important. There is some evidence of a peak emerging right about now because of Thanksgiving:

(The A is not mine, and points t a change in accounting on November 1st.)

 

[bhobba]

Nice thought, but I have to disagree. The efforts of the US to prevent ameliorate covind-19 infections were pathetically inept and damaging. I, as a fish biologist, could have done a better job.

I know you could have. By best efforts I mean considering the way the populace acted with riots etc in the middle of the pandemic, and differing opinions all over the place. For example look at the debate about HCQ - opinions were and still are all over the place (same here in Aus BTW). Personally I think the evidence is mixed, but the current protocol is 400mg HCQ for 5 days, 50 mg Zinc for 5 days, and 200 mg Doxycycline for 5 days. Both my GP and Rheumatologist have confirmed at that dose for such a short period it is harmless (although you need to watch the diarrhea from the Doxycycline). Their are a few caveats such it is contraindicated if you have psoriasis (in 18% of cases it makes it worse) - however every doctor knows that and Ivermectin or Quercetin can be used instead. In fact there is evidence Ivermectin is better anyway - Professor Borody who discovered the Peptic Ulcer cure thinks so. Yet places (including here in Aus) have banned GP's prescribing it, limiting it to certain specialists. Cuckoo. I take the preventative using Quercetin after consultation with my doctor. Does it work - I don't know - but since it is harmless who cares - well of course I would like it to work - but being harmless (50mg Quercetin, 25 mg Zinc, 1000 mg Vitamin C daily - the Vitamin C helps the body use the Quercetin better) worth a shot. That's just one issue. All the rest IMHO can be summed up in just, as far as possible, do what Taiwan did. But watching from Australia every Tom, Dick and Harry seemed to want to do his own thing. Not that we here in Aus were perfect - 5 police forcibly arresting an old lady using a walker (she was not wearing a mask) as if she was public enemy number one. Common sense seemed to go out the window.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

[One of the] Deadliest place in America: They shrugged off the pandemic, then their family and friends started dying
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...s-rural-republican-leaning-county/3828902001/

Deadliest in the sense of per capita: 20 fatalities in a county of 2,612 (2018), or 0.766%. I haven't verified that this is the highest rate in the nation.

The county’s 22-bed medical center only has a handful of beds dedicated to Coronavirus patients and not enough staff to monitor the most serious cases around the clock.

https://apnews.com/article/virus-ou...ursing-homes-00de6eb9b6733a7a97207aff2572434f

https://www.kwch.com/2020/10/23/gove-county-seeing-spike-in-covid-19-cases/
Nov 12 - https://www.ksn.com/news/health/cor...heriff-still-battling-covid-19-complications/

COVID-19 gave this Ohio family a 'sucker punch.' Powerful family emails show how tragedy unfolded.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ly-emails-covid-19-pandemic-death/3880564001/

Another rural county suffering from the pandemic. Davison County, SD, pop. 19,775 (2019), Mitchell pop. 15,680 (2018), 2564 Covid-19 cases, 51 deaths cumulatively.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/09/south-dakota-mitchell-covid-masks/
https://www.mitchellrepublic.com/ne...VID-19-cases-hospitalizations-reach-new-highs

 

[Vanadium 50]

Deadliest in the sense of per capita: 20 fatalities in a county of 2,612 (2018), or 0.766%. I haven't verified that this is the highest rate in the nation.

That's a tiny sample. If Covid were purely randomly distributed - which it's not - and divided the US into blocks of 2612, you'd expect the worst block to have 13. So this county is worse than you'd expect - by 54%.

If you replace national statistics with Kansas statistics, 54% becomes 43%.

If you want additional information that you're chasing statistical fluctuations, the county immediately north of Gove County is Sheridan County, which has 11% more cases and 4% less population. And zero deaths. Oddly, Kansas reports only 7 hospitalizations (Sheridan reports 25) which seems low for 20 deaths.

PS "Republican leaning"? That sounds political to me.

 

[Astronuc]

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said at least 60 different local authorities had recorded Covid infections caused by the new variant [in southern England].

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55308211

"We've currently identified over 1,000 cases with this variant predominantly in the South of England although cases have been identified in nearly 60 different local authority areas.

 

[PeroK]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55308211

The recent spread must be due to all the people out doing their Covidmas shopping!

 

[russ_watters]

That's a tiny sample...

PS "Republican leaning"? That sounds political to me.

Ugh. These tweets/news stories are really annoying. Whether it is North Dakota or some random, tiny county, they make for a provocative headline, but provide no analytical value whatsoever. And the frequent political spin is just icing on the yellow cake.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Tiny Kansas County Beats Covid

(Hoxie, KS) Republican-leaning Sheridan County has had not a single death from Covid, despite having a positive testing rate well above the US average and proximity to the "worst in the nation" Gove County. When asked about this, Mayor Eustace C. Haney said, "Well, far be it for me to boast that this is all my doin'...but you can't argue with facts."

 

[Vanadium 50]

@PeroK , in the words of Foghorn Leghorn, "It's a joke son; can't you tell it's a joke?".

Let me 'splain. While a response to Russ, this took the exact same set of facts as the source of the article Astro pointed us to, and presented them with an entirely different spin.

Eustace Charlton Haney is fictional, by the way.

 

[PeroK]

@PeroK , in the words of Foghorn Leghorn, "It's a joke son; can't you tell it's a joke?".

Let me 'splain. While a response to Russ, this took the exact same set of facts as the source of the article Astro pointed us to, and presented them with an entirely different spin.

Eustace Charlton Haney is fictional, by the way.

My geography of small-town Kansas is not what it should be!

 

[gmax137]

Eustace Charlton Haney is fictional, by the way.

Eustace Charlton Haney

OK, but please don't say that about Foghorn Leghorn...

 

[OmCheeto]

My geography of small-town Kansas is not what it should be!

Does this help?

 

[StevieTNZ]

The NZ Govt has released its plan for the summer break if Covid-19 re-emerges.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...n-holiday-pack-a-covid19-kit-government-warns

 

[Astronuc]

Oddly, Kansas reports only 7 hospitalizations (Sheridan reports 25) which seems low for 20 deaths.

Something is amiss. Is the 7 hospitalizations for Gove County? According to the article, they send seriously ill patients to a hospital 50 miles away, which puts them in another county (not sure which one though). Looking at a map of Kansas, Gove County is <40 miles across east-west. The county area is 1,072 sq mi, or something like 35 miles (E-W) x 30.6 miles (N-S), or 34 miles x 31.5 miles.

I compared stats for Kansas and Washington States:
Washington State population 7.615 million (2019)
203797 positive cases, 12649 hospitalizations, 2918 deaths
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/COVID19/DataDashboard (numbers updated daily)

Kansas State population 2.913 million (2019)
190081 positive cases, 5895 hospitalizations, 2109 deaths
https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas (The COVID-19 Summary is published Monday, Wednesday and Friday at 12:30 p.m. and includes historical data.)

Hospitalizations averaged approximately 31.67/day from November 25 through December 9, with a total of new hospital admissions of 475. Hospitalization information came from "Reopen Kansas Metrics" page (click on the button).
From the following article, daily new infections in Kansas are running slightly higher than those of Washington state, but rates in Kansas may be falling slightly.

WICHITA, Kan. (KSNW) — The number of people who have tested positive for the Coronavirus in Kansas increased by 4,724 over the weekend. It brings the state’s total since the pandemic began to 190,018.

Since Friday morning (i.e., over the weekend), the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) is reporting 37 more Kansas deaths linked to COVID-19.

Another 95 Kansans have been hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms and/or complications since Friday.

https://www.ksn.com/news/health/cor...ansas-37-more-deaths-95-new-hospitalizations/

Gove county was somewhat isolated, and some distance from major metropolitan areas. However, I-70 runs across the northern part of Gove County, and Quinter is on the interstate. Early on, we saw metro areas (higher population density) get hit (particularly those with international and hub airports), and counties along interstates.

I expect USA Today to sensationalize headlines and the story. I don't care much for that practice or the political aspect. I was just interested in the fact that many thought the community had dodged the coronavirus, until they didn't.

Another place to watch is Ford County (pop. 33,619 (2019)) and Dodge City (est. pop. 27,329 (2018)) with 4914 cases of COVID-19, but only 10 deaths.
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/n...-mask-mandates-thousands-got-sick/6481416002/

By the time commissioners passed the mask mandate on Nov. 16, more than 1 out of every 10 county residents had contracted the virus. At least a dozen of them had died.

Southwest Kansas counties have a total ICU capacity of 22 beds at 18 hospitals for the region's roughly 143,000 residents, state officials report.

On Sept. 1, those hospitals reported 17 ICU patients, including nine hospitalized with COVID-19. By Dec. 7, 18 of the 21 ICU patients were being treated for COVID-19 and only one staffed bed remained open. Another 63 people with COVID-19 filled other in-patient beds.
. . .
Some hospitals have run out of beds and are transferring people to Denver or other cities in Kansas, though the state doesn’t publicly track those numbers. . . .

In contrast,
Sedgwick County (Wichita), 33,554 positive cases, with 199 deaths
Johnson County (Kansas City suburbs, Overland Park, Olathe), 33,144 positive cases, with 346 deaths
Wyandotte County (Kansas City), 13,568 positive cases, with 184 deaths
Shawnee County (Topeka). 9,829 positive cases, with 171 deaths

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Check out Lincoln NE - 298% of ICU beds occupied by Covid patients
https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project

Seward Kansas is at 91%