COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[BillTre]

I need a confused reaction emoji for this stuff.

 

[russ_watters]

I need a confused reaction emoji for this stuff.

Does the "skeptical" emoji work?

Its not clear what they mean (in at least some cases) and interpretation is therefore suspect.
[reverse quote edit]

I think you led me to the answer, so thanks. This is why I'm harping on precision of descriptions for the statistics. It's critical to understand what the stats mean. I've been manually typing that number into a spreadsheet every day for 10 months, thinking it meant something else!

 

[BillTre]

I consider the numbers in all this stuff confusing.
Its not clear what they mean (in at least some cases) and interpretation is therefore suspect.

 

[BillTre]

Does the "skeptical" emoji work?

I try to reserve the skeptical emoji for when I am skeptical of the poster's reasoning, which is not in this case.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The COVID Tracking project probably has the most experience tracking these data from various states and has some interesting notes regarding data from PA that might be relevant:

On February 1, 2021, we backfilled the full time series of Total Test Encounters (PCR), from data now available on Open Data Pennsylvania, and cleared our Total Tests (PCR) column. Going forward, we will enter PA's "Total PCR Tests" into Our Total Test Encounters (PCR) column rather than Total Tests (PCR), as the state's site describes the data as encounters.

On December 28, 2020, Pennsylvania's Total PCR tests (specimens) value increased by ~690,000 from 7,202,533 tests to 7,892,184 tests. On December 29, 2020, this Total PCR tests value decreased by ~580,000 to 7,312,858 tests. We were unable to find an explanation for this fluctuation.

On December 14, 2020, Pennsylvania’s Total PCR tests (specimens) decreased by roughly 297k without explanation.

On September 3, 2020, Pennsylvania clarified that the test numbers they have been reporting previously are in units of unique people and began publishing new test data in units of specimens. On September 4, 2020, we therefore moved the appropriate historical data to the Total tests (people) field and began capturing Total PCR tests (specimens).

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/pennsylvania/notes

They also note that the state "does not have a clear full definition of cases." (https://covidtracking.com/data/state/pennsylvania/assessment#state-metrics), so they may be experiencing similar confusion over the data as @russ_watters

 

[Astronuc]

Could someone see if they can figure out a data discrepancy for me please. Below is a screenshot from the PA COVD tracking website:
View attachment 278143

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx

I've been tracking the data since the beginning of the pandemic and doing my own analysis. I realized recently my calcs of the positivity % was no longer tracking with what is on the Johns Hopkins Testing Trends website:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/pennsylvania

Looking back, the positivity % never tracked, but the discrepancy only became large recently. The daily case numbers exactly match. The discrepancy has to do with the number of tests. I've been adding total cases (899,237) to negatives (3,783,099) to get the number of tests (4,682,336). But clearly, the actual number of tests is more than twice that (9,910,886). Can anyone explain this?

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/pennsylvania/tests-viral (about 24 hours behind the PA site)

Total PCR tests (people) 4,550,692
Total PCR tests (test encounters) 9,799,882

https://covidtracking.com/data/#state-pa
If I wonder about a states statistics, I go to the official state site.

 

[Astronuc]

They also note that the state "does not have a clear full definition of cases." (https://covidtracking.com/data/state/pennsylvania/assessment#state-metrics), so they may be experiencing similar confusion over the data as @russ_watters

Each state reports cases differently, i.e., there is no uniform reporting template. I follow Washington and New York, with the latter being more consistent. Washington state was an early leader in cases, then NY overtook Washington and became the leader until CA and TX overtook NY.

Washington state has changed there format several times, and stopped reporting on weekends and holidays. Sometimes the number of cumulative positive cases and deaths have decreased because they reconciled some data.

https://covidtracking.com/data/#state-wa
https://covidtracking.com/data/#state-ny

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The vaccines seem to be having an effect on reducing deaths in nursing homes:

In another promising sign Illinois is beating back the COVID-19 pandemic, cases and deaths at Illinois long-term care facilities have dropped to levels not seen since late summer, according to state data released Friday.

Following weeks of focused vaccination of long-term care residents and workers, the state reported 33 residents died from the virus over the past week. That’s the lowest reported tally since mid-August and exponentially lower than the 650 weekly deaths reported in early December.

Long-term care residents not only have seen a sizable drop in the number of deaths, they also now make up a far smaller share of those who are dying of COVID-19 each week — going from roughly half or more of these deaths in Illinois to near 10% now.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...220-ehid36jz6vgpjhuyqshdxh2cbi-htmlstory.html

While part of the decline could be due to the overall decline in cases in Illinois since late December, the fact that nursing home death have declined as a percentage of total deaths suggests that the vaccines (which have been administered to healthcare workers, people in nursing homes, and is in the process of being rolled out to those over 65 over the next month or so, but is not yet available to the general public) is having some success in preventing deaths at nursing homes.

 

[nsaspook]

and now the good news.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/why-covid-19-cases-are-falling-so-fast/618041/

One month ago, the CDC published the results of more than 20 pandemic forecasting models. Most projected that COVID-19 cases would continue to grow through February, or at least plateau. Instead, COVID-19 is in retreat in America. New daily cases have plunged, and hospitalizations are down almost 50 percent in the past month. This is not an artifact of infrequent testing, since the share of regional daily tests that are coming back positive has declined even more than the number of cases. Some pandemic statistics are foggy, but the current decline of COVID-19 is crystal clear.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/major-covid-19-metrics-are-falling/618068/

All major indicators of COVID-19 transmission in the United States continue to fall rapidly. Weekly new cases have fallen from 1.7 million at the national peak in early January to fewer than 600,000 this week, and cases have declined in every state. As we’ve seen at many points in the pandemic, case numbers are changing most quickly, with hospitalizations and deaths declining after a delay: Cases have been falling sharply for five weeks, hospitalizations for four, and deaths for two. In this week’s numbers from nursing homes and other long-term-care facilities, we are now seeing solid declines in deaths correlated with COVID-19 vaccinations in this most vulnerable population.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...update_27.pdf?sfvrsn=94da8979_9&download=true

Global overview
The number of global new cases reported has continued to fall, with 2.7 million new cases last week, a 16%
decline over 500 000 fewer new cases compared to the previous week (Figure 1). The number of new deaths
reported also fell, with 81 000 new deaths reported last week, a 10% decline as compared to the previous
week. A total of five out of six WHO regions reported a double-digit percentage decline in new cases (Table 1),
with only the Eastern Mediterranean Region showing a 7% rise. Europe and the Americas continue to see the
greatest drops in absolute numbers of cases. Meanwhile, the number of new deaths declined in all regions.

 

[mfb]

New cases in Germany are down to ~30% of the peak in late December. ICU beds used for COVID-19 are down to 50% of the peak around new year, and will drop below the peak in April in the next days. Only 6% have been vaccinated so far, so this decline is largely not the result of vaccinations.

Israel exceeded 80 vaccinations per 100 people. Israel's cases are going down quickly, but we see that trend in places with fewer vaccinations as well.

 

[mfb]

Update from Israel
Two weeks after the second dose, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine reduces the risk to die by ~98.9% and the risk of serious illness by ~99.2%. That's not exactly 100%, but pretty close. Israel had 2000 pandemic deaths this year with only a smaller fraction of the population being in the "two weeks after the second dose" group, so this ~1.1% risk is probably just a handful of deaths.
Here I don't know if they mean symptomatic infections or all infections. The latter would be revolutionary:

According to the data, after one week, the vaccine is 91.9 percent effective in preventing the illness altogether. After two weeks, it jumps to 95.8 percent.

 

[nsaspook]

Lets see what the pandemic forecasting models say now.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/forecasts-cases.html

 

[Astronuc]

February 22, 2021 - Covidtracking - https://covidtracking.com/data
In the US
Covid-positive cases (confirmed+probable): cumulative 27,932,810, new today 52,530
Currently/now Hospitalized 55,403, in ICU 11,536, on Ventilator 3,804
Covid-19, deaths (confirmed+probable): cumulative 490,382, new today 1,235

Positive cases should exceed 28 million by Wednesday, February 24.
Deaths will probably exceed 500 K by February 28.

CA 3,446,611 Cases, 49,338 deaths
TX 2,594,466 Cases, 41,407 deaths
FL 1,838,745 Cases, 30,595 deaths
NY 1,584,931 Cases, 37,941 deaths
IL 1,175,655 Cases, 22,506 deaths

The COVID Tracking Project will stop collecting data on March 7, 2021

ncov2019.live/data/unitedstates has US at 512,526 deaths, new +1,309, already exceeding 500K, >28.8 million cases

 

[mfb]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210217_39/
Australia has started vaccinations.
New Zealand has started vaccinations.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wellbeing/south-korea-to-begin-using-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccines-on-feb-27-pm-says/ar-BB1dS7k5
It's complicated in Taiwan
Unless I missed something all highly developed countries have now started vaccinations or (see above) plan to do so as soon as possible.

210 million doses have been administered worldwide, or 2.7 per 100. The current rate is ~5 million/day: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

[WWGD]

Is it fair to assume that " Internationalism" has taken a hit given its biological implications and its correlation with the number of cases/deaths( meaning the number ( and rate) of cases/deaths is higher in countries with dense connections to other countries)? Is it fair to say this is a lesson most have taken out of this pandemic? If so, will we be seeing a downturn in travel, commuting ( issue at a li al level), conferences?

 

[WWGD]

My data, from Worldometer:

 

[russ_watters]

Is it fair to assume that " Internationalism" has taken a hit given its biological implications and its correlation with the number of cases/deaths( meaning the number ( and rate) of cases/deaths is higher in countries with dense connections to other countries)? Is it fair to say this is a lesson most have taken out of this pandemic? If so, will we be seeing a downturn in travel, commuting ( issue at a li al level), conferences?

I agree the premise is correct, but I don't see that the conclusion necessarily follows. Business travel had already been decreasing due to the prevalence and quality of videoconferencing and COVID likely accelerated that some. But otherwise, I don't see a reason for a connection. For me, personally, I can hardly wait for a return to leisure travel.

[Edit]
To put a finer point on it; this was almost exactly a once in a hundred year event. There should be no need for it to substantially affect long term behavior beyond basic preparedness (which will surely fade over the next 100 years).

 

[WWGD]

I agree the premise is correct, but I don't see that the conclusion necessarily follows. Business travel had already been decreasing due to the prevalence and quality of videoconferencing and COVID likely accelerated that some. But otherwise, I don't see a reason for a connection. For me, personally, I can hardly wait for a return to leisure travel.

[Edit]
To put a finer point on it; this was almost exactly a once in a hundred year event. There should be no need for it to substantially affect long term behavior beyond basic preparedness (which will surely fade over the next 100 years).

I agree with you, but The Economist has written an article ( An editorial, IIRC) to this effect. I am in agreement with you and I believe they have overstated their case.

 

[russ_watters]

I agree with you, but The Economist has written an article ( An editorial, IIRC) to this effect. I am in agreement with you and I believe they have overstated their case.

Do you have a link? Google finds me one from September...

 

[Astronuc]

Why the vaccine rollout in the U.S. has been slower than expected
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-the-vaccine-rollout-in-the-u-s-has-been-slower-than-expected

Supply shortages and delays leave Europe’s vaccination campaign in crisis
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/s...-leave-europes-vaccination-campaign-in-crisis

Twenty-six million vaccine doses were delivered to the European Union by mid-February, with around two-thirds of them used. That's just a fraction of the E.U.'s population of 450 million.

All three of the vaccines authorized for use, Moderna, BioNTech/Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca, have cut deliveries in the first quarter. Pfizer has not yet delivered around 10 million doses that were due in December, leaving the bloc a third short.

Rates of production at European sites across the board have been unable to meet demand. Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, and German herself, has admitted mistakes were made.

I heard somewhere a comment about the supply of nano-lipids to the effect that the demand was underestimated. It was one of several challenges in the supply chains for the vaccine producers.

See also - https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/coronovirus-vaccine-progress.992484/

 

[vela]

Texas and other states are lifting COVID-19 restrictions.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/us/texas-and-other-states-ease-covid-19-rules-despite-warnings/ar-BB1eavh0

The move seems a bit premature to me.

 

[PeroK]

It's worth noting that the virus is raging in the Czech Repulic and to a lesser extent in Slovakia and Hungary.

The Czech Republic had few cases in the first wave last April, but since Sep 2019 over 12% of its population (of about 10 million) has tested positive. And, it has now overtaken Belgium to have the worst per-capita death rate of more than 2 people per thousand.

Since the start of the year the daily rate of positive tests has been generally in excess of 1 person in a thousand. Other countries have peaked at this level for a couple of weeks at worst. And the death rate is close to 20 per million per day.

CNN has a piece on it:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/28/europe/czech-republic-coronavirus-disaster-intl/index.html

The other news item is that several of these eastern European countries are breaking ranks with the EU and buying the unapproved Russian vaccine.

 

[nuuskur]

In Estonia, the daily reports seldom veer under 1000 positives. Small population as it is

 

[russ_watters]

Interesting past few weeks for the overall vaccine landscape in the US, and ultimately a vastly improved outlook due to increased manufacturing capacity, including the J&J vaccine:

Notes:

• The distribution took a hit from the winter storms a few weeks ago, but re-bounded quickly. It will likely take a couple of weeks for the administration to fully absorb that (while also absorbing the big increases). 3 and 2 weeks ago are a dip and catch-up due to the storm. Last week was a surge due to 4 million stockpiled J&J vaccines being released. My expectation is there will be a bit of a drop this week as the manufacturing rate ramps up and the stockpile is gone.
• The distribution pipeline is shrinking, so I've reduced the shift in the total graphs over time to keep them aligned; from 16 days to 14 to 12.
• We're now in excess of 2 million per day administered, on average.

And:

Biden said Tuesday there will be enough COVID-19 vaccine available in May for every adult in the U.S., nearly two months earlier than his administration predicted three weeks ago, thanks to a deal brokered between pharmaceutical giants Merck and Johnson & Johnson.

That timeline didn't surprise experts. In fact, some say the U.S. could reach that milestone by mid-April.

To get there, officials plan on 400 million doses from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, enough to vaccinate 200 million people, plus an additional 100 million doses of the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine. That is more than enough for the nation's 255 million adults.

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-19-coronavirus-containment-efforts.983707/page-189

Mid-April would be really aggressive. That's 400 million more doses in about 5 weeks, or 80 million per week / 11 million per day. The ramp rate would have to increase drastically for that to happen.

 

[PeroK]

Mid-April would be really aggressive. That's 400 million more doses in about 5 weeks, or 80 million per week / 11 million per day. The ramp rate would have to increase drastically for that to happen.

The UK peaked at about 600,000 doses per day and 3 million per week in the first two weeks of February, but things have stuttered and slowed a little since then. We're only managing about 2.5 million per week now. The issue is vaccine supply, I believe.

The UK is aiming for all adults (18+) by the end of July, so you are way more ambitious than that!

Most older people (70+) took the vaccine, but it seems that more younger people aren't making appointments. I got it early to fill spare slots and we've progressed to 55-59 year olds a week or two ahead of schedule.

The issue may ultimately be getting people to take the vaccine.

 

[PeroK]

In Estonia, the daily reports seldom veer under 1000 positives. Small population as it is

Do you have any thoughts on the relatively low death rate in Estonia?

 

[pinball1970]

Do you have any thoughts on the relatively low death rate in Estonia?

population density?

less mixing?

Compared to Netherlands and Denmark that similar sizes in terms of sqr miles they have higher populations

Netherlands population is 17M Denmark 5.7M Estonia 1.3M

 

[nsaspook]

https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/NN_sample.html

Virus trends in the U.S. are improving, largely because of the rising level of immunity.

 

[mfb]

Furthermore, the analysis found a vaccine effectiveness of 94% against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.

https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2021/Real-World-Evidence-Confirms-High-Effectiveness-of-Pfizer-BioNTech-COVID-19-Vaccine-and-Profound-Public-Health-Impact-of-Vaccination-One-Year-After-Pandemic-Declared/default.aspx
Take the reporting path of the number into account - but this is amazing news. A 94% reduction of asymptomatic infections means a vaccination doesn't just protect the vaccinated person. It also means it's very unlikely that this person will contribute to the spread of the pandemic.
This is coming from Israel, where most infections are the "UK variant" (B.1.1.7).

 

[PeroK]

https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2021/Real-World-Evidence-Confirms-High-Effectiveness-of-Pfizer-BioNTech-COVID-19-Vaccine-and-Profound-Public-Health-Impact-of-Vaccination-One-Year-After-Pandemic-Declared/default.aspx
Take the reporting path of the number into account - but this is amazing news. A 94% reduction of asymptomatic infections means a vaccination doesn't just protect the vaccinated person. It also means it's very unlikely that this person will contribute to the spread of the pandemic.
This is coming from Israel, where most infections are the "UK variant" (B.1.1.7).

That's clearly not scientific data, but Pfizer's corporate propaganda. I'm not saying the vaccine isn't effective, but that's not an unbiased view.

Moreover, the daily infection rate in Israel is still high, despite the extent of the vaccination programme (106 doses per 100 population). There have been about 47,000 positive tests in Israel in the past fortnight. For a population of only 9.2 million that is still very high. This includes 6,000 cases in the past two days - so it's still about 3,000 per day.

That compares with 87,000 positive tests in the UK (population 68 million) in the same period. The rate of infection in Israel is still many times greater per capita than the UK. About 3-4 times higher, in fact.

There must be non-vaccination factors involved, but Israel is a warning that an extensive vaccination programme alone may not be enough.

 

[pinball1970]

That's clearly not scientific data, but Pfizer's corporate propaganda. I'm not saying the vaccine isn't effective, but that's not an unbiased view.

Moreover, the daily infection rate in Israel is still high, despite the extent of the vaccination programme (106 doses per 100 population). There have been about 47,000 positive tests in Israel in the past fortnight. For a population of only 9.2 million that is still very high. This includes 6,000 cases in the past two days - so it's still about 3,000 per day.

That compares with 87,000 positive tests in the UK (population 68 million) in the same period. The rate of infection in Israel is still many times greater per capita than the UK. About 3-4 times higher, in fact.

There must be non-vaccination factors involved, but Israel is a warning that an extensive vaccination programme alone may not be enough.

47,000 is huge. They were celebrating on the news only last month because lock down restrictions had been lifted and vaccination rate was high, over a third of the population

Lock down lifted too soon

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-...fts-first-restrictions-6-weeks-after-lockdown

 

[mfb]

That's clearly not scientific data, but Pfizer's corporate propaganda. I'm not saying the vaccine isn't effective, but that's not an unbiased view.

Israel calculated that number not Pfizer, it's just a bit difficult to get their numbers directly so I linked the press release.

Israel tests a lot of asymptomatic people now - that drives up case counts compared to countries that do not. It's also the basis of the 94% estimate. Half of the population being vaccinated still means tons of people and larger groups - especially younger people - without a vaccine.

 

[PeroK]

It looks like most of the EU has halted use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Wow!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56404542

 

[mfb]

Germany still has ~8000 COVID-19 cases per day, or 1 in 100,000 every single day.
The reported blood-clot rate is about 1 per 500,000, and matching the rate in the general population.

Even if all these blood clots would be from the vaccine - and there is no evidence that any of them would be - delaying vaccination by just a single day produces at least 5 new COVID-19 cases for every blood clot potentially avoided (e.g. by going to a different vaccine).
* Vaccines are largely given to high-risk groups first, where the rate is higher than 1 in 100,000
* Abandoning the Oxford/AZ vaccine would likely delay things by far more than a month.

 

[PeroK]

Germany still has ~8000 COVID-19 cases per day, or 1 in 100,000 every single day.
The reported blood-clot rate is about 1 per 500,000, and matching the rate in the general population.

Even if all these blood clots would be from the vaccine - and there is no evidence that any of them would be - delaying vaccination by just a single day produces at least 5 new COVID-19 cases for every blood clot potentially avoided (e.g. by going to a different vaccine).
* Vaccines are largely given to high-risk groups first, where the rate is higher than 1 in 100,000
* Abandoning the Oxford/AZ vaccine would likely delay things by far more than a month.

France and Italy, for example, have about 300 deaths per day related to COVID-19. Delaying the vaccination rollout has an associated cost related to those numbers.

The BBC news is reporting that Germany, France, Italy and Spain have all paused the rollout of the AZ vaccine. I assume that's true?