COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[mfb]

If you are talking about known heal;th problems, do you have anything that shows any where the young are more susceptible?

If you are talking about unknown health problems that might be discovered later, a) how do you make policy around that and b) how do you know this preferentially affects children and not the people who seem most affected by Covid?

More susceptible than what? More than zero? Long COVID in children for example is a documented phenomenon, we don't have good frequency estimates yet but it's not negligible. Looking at deaths only is missing that completely.

Germany's new case numbers go up as well now, but it's nowhere at the level of its neighbors. +1500/day in a population of 80 million.

The Netherlands have +10,000/day in a population of 18 million! What are people doing there?
Belgium has wildly varying +1000 to +2000/day in a population of 11 million.
France has +10,000/day in a population of 70 million.
Switzerland has +500/day in a population of 8 million.
Austria has +300/day in a population of 9 million.
Denmark has +1000/day in a population of 6 million

Czechia has +150-200/day in a population of 11 million. That's similar to Germany
Poland only reports +100/day (population 40 million)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

My GF, who is vaccinated, got sick and has tested positive for Covid. She did not get terribly sick and is already on the mend. But she has to isolate for another week. She had been on vacation and had to cancel our weekend plans last weekend because she wasn't feeling well. Then she got sick sick. So I hadn't seen her since she was exposed.

CDC guidelines
I think or know I had COVID-19, and I had symptoms
You can be around others after:
10 days since symptoms first appeared and
24 hours with no fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and
Other symptoms of COVID-19 are improving*

*Loss of taste and smell may persist for weeks or months after recovery and need not delay the end of isolation

Most people do not require testing to decide when they can be around others; however, if your healthcare provider recommends testing, they will let you know when you can resume being around others based on your test results.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/end-home-isolation.html

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-cov...data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/

As of July 19, less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the vast majority of states reporting data. The vaccination rate for Black people is less than 50% in 38 of 42 reporting states, including 14 states where less than a third of Black people have received one or more doses. Similarly, less than half of Hispanic people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 34 of 40 reporting states, including 10 states where less than a third have received at least one dose. At least half of White people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 17 of 42 states. The rate remains below 50% in the remaining 25 states but falls below a third in only one state, Idaho. At least half of Asian people have received one or more doses in more than half of reporting states (32 of 39).

Discussion
Together, these data show that, despite recent trends suggesting improving equity in COVID-19 vaccination patterns and a recent narrowing in the gap between vaccination rates for White and Hispanic people, disparities are persisting. Less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in nearly all states reporting data, including a number of states where less than a third have received a vaccine. These lower vaccination rates among Black and Hispanic people leave them at increased risk for coronavirus, particularly as the Delta variant spreads, potentially leading to widening disparities going forward and limiting the nation’s recovery.

 

[Keith_McClary]

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-cov...data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/

As of July 19, less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the vast majority of states reporting data. The vaccination rate for Black people is less than 50% in 38 of 42 reporting states

We don't have this issue in Canada, because governments don't keep race/ethnicity statistics.

 

[mfb]

I don't think setting fixed thresholds (like 50%) and then counting states is a good approach for numbers that are (a) highly correlated between states and (b) in the general range of 50% for the population average. It tells us almost nothing how large the difference actually is. Is it 53% vs. 46%? 80% vs. 40%?
Just compare the numbers directly.

 

[AlexCaledin]

• Researchers studied cells collected by nasal swabs at the moment of diagnosis for both mild and severe COVID-19 patients
• Cells taken from patients who went on to develop severe disease had a muted antiviral response compared to those who went on to develop mild disease

https://scitechdaily.com/early-anti...may-determine-mild-severe-course-of-covid-19/
_____________________________________________________________

- is it possible that, in severe cases, some viruses get inhaled straight into the lungs, bypassing the nasal defence?

 

[Astronuc]

- is it possible that, in severe cases, some viruses get inhaled straight into the lungs, bypassing the nasal defence?

If one breathes (inhales) through the mouth rather than the nose, then yes. How often does one breathe through the mouth instead of the nose? For example, when one walks vigorously, or engages in physical activity, how does one breathe? When talking in a conversation, speaking or singing, how often does one breathe through the mouth instead of the nose?

 

[Astronuc]

A Coronavirus variant discovered in Colombia is showing up among patients in South Florida, increasing infections and putting health officials on alert as calls grow louder for unvaccinated individuals to get inoculated.

Carlos Migoya, CEO of Jackson Health System, told WPLG in Miami earlier this week that the B.1.621 variant has accounted for about 10% of Coronavirus patients, trailing behind delta, the now dominant variant in the United States that's been ravaging the nation's unvaccinated, and the gamma variant. B.1.621 has yet to receive a Greek-letter designation as more prominent variants have.

https://news.yahoo.com/another-coronavirus-variant-reached-florida-192854583.html

Migoya told the news station that he speculated B.1.621 is likely rising in South Florida because of international travel between Colombia and Miami, which serves as a gateway to Latin America.

The earliest documented samples of B.1.621 were noted in January, and at least 16 cases have been recently reported in the United Kingdom, where health officials have noted that the majority of cases linked to the variant were the result of international travel.

International travel (by infected people) was a principal method of transmission December, 2019 - March, 2020.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-mother-has-been-living-in-her-teen-daughters-icu-room-for-days-praying-she-survives-covid-19/ar-AAMHfax

Agness Velasquez spoke with CNN on a video call from the ICU room at Broward Health Medical Center where her 15-year-old daughter, Paulina, has been battling Covid-19 for about 10 days.

 

[mfb]

Some people in Missouri are getting vaccinated against Covid-19 in secret, doctor says. They fear backlash from loved ones who oppose the vaccines

Missouri is at 41% full vaccination (51% for 18+) and fifth in new daily cases in the US.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Some plots - let's just not pick states filled with people we don't like and tut-tut at them.

(The outlier is CT)

Draw your own conclusions,

 

[AlexCaledin]

- careless people are in danger because of the careless behavior which is indicated by getting no vaccine.

 

[Jarvis323]

I think this graph, and a careful analysis of what was happening throughout this timeline can help to understand why CT's CFR might be so high and whether peoples attitudes towards science and trust in health officials might have affected covid's impact. Key events are when testing became available and widespread, when people realized that masks were useful, when people realized that asymptomatic transmission was a concern, when people realized that airborn transmission was a concern, the availability of medical supplies, when breakthroughs were made in treatment protocols, when vaccines became available, when the population became vaccinated in large numbers. A useful plot to make would be this one superimposed with the number of people vaccinated over time.

Most state's graphs look similar to the US average.

 

[mfb]

The plots show what we already knew. Vaccines work, and everyone would benefit from higher vaccination rates.

What the news report showed, what I was not aware of, is how fanatic the anti-vaccination sentiment can be in some communities.

 

[Borg]

Maybe someone could invent a vaccine that's exhaled by those who have been vaccinated with it resulting in the vaccination of the unvaccinated. After all, if they think that it's OK for them to spew pathogens...

 

[PeroK]

Maybe someone could invent a vaccine that's exhaled by those who have been vaccinated with it resulting in the vaccination of the unvaccinated. After all, if they think that it's OK for them to spew pathogens...

That would get the anti-vaxxers wearing a mask!

 

[atyy]

Maybe someone could invent a vaccine that's exhaled by those who have been vaccinated with it resulting in the vaccination of the unvaccinated. After all, if they think that it's OK for them to spew pathogens...

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/cansinobio-inhaled-covid-19-vaccine-trigger-immune-response-15317564
Not quite what you are looking for, but ...

 

[Borg]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/cansinobio-inhaled-covid-19-vaccine-trigger-immune-response-15317564
Not quite what you are looking for, but ...

My thoughts came from a similar article in Scientific American last month. I was thinking at the time that companies could install machines to automatically mist people with the vaccine as they came in. I know that it violates a ton of personal freedoms but I'm getting less and less concerned with the freedoms of the ignorant these days.

 

[Borg]

That would get the anti-vaxxers wearing a mask!

I was thinking more in line with the conspiracies it would generate but that sounds better.

 

[Borg]

Maybe someone could invent a vaccine that's exhaled by those who have been vaccinated with it resulting in the vaccination of the unvaccinated. After all, if they think that it's OK for them to spew pathogens...

I just realized the perfect argument if they think that it's wrong to do that - my body, my choice.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...-19-lockdown-enforcement-20210729-p58e5e.html

Defence Force called into help with Sydney COVID-19 lockdown enforcement​

The Australian Defence Force will assist with enforcement of Sydney’s lockdown following a formal request to Prime Minister Scott Morrison from NSW Police.

While NSW has previously declined an offer for military assistance with the operation to enforce COVID-19 public health orders, police said an escalation of efforts over the coming days justified the request.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/adf-soldiers-to-arrive-in-sydney-covid19-lockdown/100336124

"They don't come with powers and they won't be carrying firearms but they come with an enormous amount of training, very disciplined, they understand the task."

They wouldn't be deployed if the implied force of military action wasn't projected.

 

[Astronuc]

Meanwhile in Florida, cases are increasing to levels approaching those of last summer.

Florida hospitals reported more than 8,900 patients with COVID-19 on Thursday, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Florida Hospital Association said the state peaked at 10,179 cases last July.

The patient number on Thursday was five times higher than a month ago, and it quickly climbed from about 5,500 in just one week.

https://apnews.com/article/business...rus-pandemic-95de3c470432eb61ee7450cf99ba7aef

AdventHealth said Thursday it had reached a new high on Thursday since the pandemic began with about 1,000 COVID-19 hospitalized patients across its system in central Florida. Twelve hospitals in the state are reporting critical staffing shortages to the federal government.

The rapid rise in hospitalizations and cases has prompted officials in Miami-Dade and Orlando to issue new orders requiring masks at indoor county buildings. The mayor of Orange County, home to Walt Disney World, is forcing all nonunion county employees to get vaccinated by August.

And Walt Disney World also announced this week that it would again be requiring the use of masks indoors.

The AP article also reports that last month, June, Florida stopped providing daily figures of cases and deaths, switching to weekly reports. The number of vaccinations are reported, but hospitalizations for COVID-19 aren't so readily available.

 

[gleem]

The CDC estimates that the R0 for the Delta variant is 8-9 as infectable as chickenpox.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/29/politics/cdc-masks-covid-19-infections/index.html

 

[Bystander]

for the Delta variant is 8-9 as infectable as chickenpox.

Tangential question: do parents still conduct/organize "chickenpox parties" for their children, conferring immunity to smallpox?

 

[PeterDonis]

I know that it violates a ton of personal freedoms but I'm getting less and less concerned with the freedoms of the ignorant these days.

A government that can violate the freedom of those you consider ignorant today can just as easily consider you ignorant tomorrow and violate yours.

Also, if the rhetoric we are hearing is true, the people who are getting COVID-19 and becoming seriously ill or dying are the unvaccinated, so the people who you say are ignorant are paying the price for their ignorance. Which is exactly how freedom is supposed to work.

 

[Borg]

A government that can violate the freedom of those you consider ignorant today can just as easily consider you ignorant tomorrow and violate yours.

Also, if the rhetoric we are hearing is true, the people who are getting COVID-19 and becoming seriously ill or dying are the unvaccinated, so the people who you say are ignorant are paying the price for their ignorance. Which is exactly how freedom is supposed to work.

Agree 100%. It's hard to properly express certain emotions online but I'm mainly very frustrated with these people - some of whom I'm related to.

 

[jack action]

but I'm mainly very frustrated with these people

Why?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Also, if the rhetoric we are hearing is true, the people who are getting COVID-19 and becoming seriously ill or dying are the unvaccinated, so the people who you say are ignorant are paying the price for their ignorance. Which is exactly how freedom is supposed to work.

I think the difference is many of these people are victims of nefarious misinformation schemes under the guise of advocating for "freedom".

 

[WWGD]

A government that can violate the freedom of those you consider ignorant today can just as easily consider you ignorant tomorrow and violate yours.

Also, if the rhetoric we are hearing is true, the people who are getting COVID-19 and becoming seriously ill or dying are the unvaccinated, so the people who you say are ignorant are paying the price for their ignorance. Which is exactly how freedom is supposed to work.

This is where personal freedom of the west is over-rated and Chinese-style authoritarianism seems to work better. And this from a little-l libertarian.

 

[WWGD]

This is where personal freedom of the west is over-rated and Chinese-style authoritarianism seems to work better. And this from a little-l libertarian.

All I mean is that there are no clear answers as in one of the two choices is best as a blanket statement. At least I don't see one.

 

[PeterDonis]

I think the difference is many of these people are victims of nefarious misinformation schemes under the guise of advocating for "freedom".

Freedom does not mean there is no misinformation. It means it's up to each individual person to choose what information they will act on. Yes, there will be people that choose to act on unreliable information. That's a fact of life. And curtailing people's freedoms does not solve that problem, because first, no authority, whether it's government or anyone else, can control all of the people all of the time, and second, authorities propagate and act on unreliable information too.

I also don't think all misinformation is "nefarious". People can have plenty of honest reasons for spreading or acting on information that turns out to be unreliable. I think we would all be a lot better off if everybody would stop demonizing people who have different opinions and stop trying to insist that any source of information should be taken as authoritative. In terms of my Insights article on "Is Science an Authority", I think a lot of the information that is being put out in the name of "Science" does not meet the requirements I gave in that article. I stress that this, in itself, is not a "failure" of "Science"--it is what we should expect in a field that is still in the early stages of development and in the midst of a situation that is rapidly changing. I think it would be better if everyone would just admit that no, "Science" cannot give us reliable guidance about a lot of what is going on in this situation, and we need to fall back on common sense, what scientific knowledge we do have (which can still help guide our common sense even if it can't give us authoritative guidance), and individual freedom and responsibility.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Somehow we have the personal freedom to drive a car and kill someone, but get prosecuted, but we also have the personal freedom to reject a vaccine and likely kill many and be praised for it.

 

[PeterDonis]

we also have the personal freedom to reject a vaccine and likely kill many

"Likely kill many" is way, way, way too strong; it is an example of exactly the sort of demonizing of other people who hold different opinions that I said we should not be doing in my previous post just now.

I reject your analogy with a person driving a car who causes a fatal accident. An unvaccinated person who always wears a mask in public, social distances, and takes the other common sense precautions does not pose a significant threat to others, any more than a driver who practices safe driving techniques.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Freedom does not mean there is no misinformation. It means it's up to each individual person to choose what information they will act on. Yes, there will be people that choose to act on unreliable information. That's a fact of life. And curtailing people's freedoms does not solve that problem, because first, no authority, whether it's government or anyone else, can control all of the people all of the time, and second, authorities propagate and act on unreliable information too.

I also don't think all misinformation is "nefarious". People can have plenty of honest reasons for spreading or acting on information that turns out to be unreliable. I think we would all be a lot better off if everybody would stop demonizing people who have different opinions and stop trying to insist that any source of information should be taken as authoritative. In terms of my Insights article on "Is Science an Authority", I think a lot of the information that is being put out in the name of "Science" does not meet the requirements I gave in that article. I stress that this, in itself, is not a "failure" of "Science"--it is what we should expect in a field that is still in the early stages of development and in the midst of a situation that is rapidly changing. I think it would be better if everyone would just admit that no, "Science" cannot give us reliable guidance about a lot of what is going on in this situation, and we need to fall back on common sense, what scientific knowledge we do have (which can still help guide our common sense even if it can't give us authoritative guidance), and individual freedom and responsibility.

And this ends up highlighting inequality. Certain socio-geo-economic areas are predisposed to accept misinformation. We should just shrug our shoulders? Sucks for them? Bad cards in life mate. Misinformation is not just bad information, but it implies intent. The intent of bad information is nefarious.

 

[gleem]

Tangential question: do parents still conduct/organize "chickenpox parties" for their children, conferring immunity to smallpox?

CDC warns against this practice because of possible life-threatening consequences of an infection.

 

[WWGD]

"Likely kill many" is way, way, way too strong; it is an example of exactly the sort of demonizing of other people who hold different opinions that I said we should not be doing in my previous post just now.

I reject your analogy with a person driving a car who causes a fatal accident. An unvaccinated person who always wears a mask in public, social distances, and takes the other common sense precautions does not pose a significant threat to others, any more than a driver who practices safe driving techniques.

But do you extend this to differences of opinions re the effectiveness of vaccinations? Evidence for its benefits seems overwhelming and uncontroversial.