COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[mfb]

Trump wants to keep passengers on Grand Princess - the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.

We value freedom. Sometimes to our own detriment. Some Americans look upon Europeans as too willing to conform (to say it in a non-inflammatory way.)

The freedom to stay at home when sick without missing salary or risking the job, the freedom to take vacations, the freedom to go to a restaurant without worrying about the cook infecting the guests, the freedom to go to a doctor when sick without having to worry about ruining medical bills...

vs. the freedom to infect others because you have to come to work when sick, and (and that's the one Americans like to highlight over and over) the freedom of employers to screw their employees in every way they can imagine.

You think Europeans don't value freedom? I know what I consider more free here.

 

[atyy]

Trump wants to keep passengers on Grand Princess - the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.

I wonder whether they can arrange clean areas, and protection for crew and quarantine officers so that infection doesn't spread on the ship. Is it intrinsically hard to have effective infection control on a cruise ship, or was it just that the Japanese authorities were careless in handling the Diamond Princess? I could guess the latter played a large role, given that they let some passengers off the ship without testing.

 

[russ_watters]

Trump wants to keep passengers on Grand Princess - the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.

The freedom to stay at home when sick without missing salary or risking the job, the freedom to take vacations, the freedom to go to a restaurant without worrying about the cook infecting the guests, the freedom to go to a doctor when sick without having to worry about ruining medical bills...

vs. the freedom to infect others because you have to come to work when sick, and (and that's the one Americans like to highlight over and over) the freedom of employers to screw their employees in every way they can imagine.

You think Europeans don't value freedom? I know what I consider more free here.

This is just so insulting, dismissive, simplistic and not reflective of what the concept of "freedom" has historically meant, much less addressing the actual issue at hand. If tanks get rolled down the street to prevent people from leaving their homes, it could still be considered "freedom from disease" by such an argument. Specific to the example you gave, the "freedom" of one person to stay home and not work and still get paid means someone else has to work and is forced to pay that person to stay home.

Freedom - historically and in the US - has quite simply meant individual responsibility, accountability and choices(vs government mandates). That's it - it is no more complicated than that. Government mandated paid sick leave is not "freedom", it is government-forced support instead of personal responsibility/choices. That's not a value judgment - that doesn't mean it is right or wrong, it just is what it is, by the historical definition.

The functional problem with your critique is that I rather suspect neither the US or European countries have dealt with, in modern times, an issue like Coronavirus. While it sounds good to say paid sick time is mandatory ("right" or not), such programs cost money, and don't address the production problem that they cause. Yea, congratulations, your power grid is very reliable. Do you really think that will still be true when everyone who works in electricity production is at home because of government-forced home-quarantine? And how will companies survive when forced to pay everyone to be home sick simultaneously for the next 3 months? In China, they just shut off the power plants and close the factories; no big deal.

There is a name for the concept that China lacks that enables it to shut down the country to stop a virus epidemic, and that concept is "freedom". Similarly, it is likely that European countries will be able to enact more stringent practices than the US to stem the outbreak. No, not as severe as China, but more stringent than the US nonetheless. That's a reality that needs to be discussed dispassionately, not argued due to triggered emotion over the word.

Trying to twist the definition of "freedom" due to its aesthetics is popular these days, but it is unhelpful toward having discussions where people understand each other and more importantly in dealing with real-life problems -- and this one is pretty real.

Look: it is factually true that by typical measures of the concept, Americans value freedom more than virtually every other country's citizens in the world. That's something that will need to be dealt with when trying to stop the Coronavirus. But rather than finger-waggling about it, let's talk about what sensible policies should be enacted. Please.

 

[russ_watters]

Trump wants to keep passengers on Grand Princess - the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.

I agree this is the wrong call. The better call would be to offload the passengers to a secure location where they can be quarantined separately for the necessary 2 weeks. Those from the Diamond Princess have already done that (though after a long quarantine on the ship).

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

For News Of Our Disembarkation’

March 7, 2020 at 6:24 pm
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — While more than 2,000 passengers remained in limbo about when they will arrive at a U.S. port, the coronavirus-stricken Grand Princess rendezvoused with a supply ship Saturday evening off the San Francisco coastline.

According to a shipping tracker, the Miss Tammy out of San Francisco arrived at the Grand Princess around 5:30 p.m. just south of the Farallons. A Coast Cutter was not far from the ship.

Michelle Heckert, who is stranded on the ship with her grandparents, took to social media to update what was happening.

“Captain just announced that we are still waiting for news of our disembarkation, but we are moving closer to shore to receive additional supplies,” she tweeted. “For those without a balcony, they are trying to circulate more fresh air into the ship.”

Earlier in the day, a 70-year-old woman with a non-COVID-19 medical emergency was transported by Coast Guard cutter from the Grand Princess to the Bay Area for hospitalization.

The Coast Guard was notified by the ship’s captain that the woman needed treatment and the Centers for Disease Control recommended she be moved, the Coast Guard said.

[ . . . ]

In the wake of the death and Coronavirus cases, Gov. Gavin Newsom banned the ship from making port in San Francisco or anywhere in California until anyone with flu-like symptoms aboard was tested for the illness.

On Thursday, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention doctor and four medical staffers from the California Air National Guard were airlifted to the ship along with testing kits. They took samples from 46 passengers and crew members. Those samples were then airlifted to a California state lab in Richmond for testing.

Vice President Mike Pence announced on Friday that 19 crew members and two passengers of the 46 samples taken had tested positive for the coronavirus.

“We have developed plan which will be implemented this weekend to bring ship into a noncommercial port all passengers and crew will be tested for the coronavirus,” Pence said. “Those that need to be quarantined, will be quarantined. Those that require additional medical attention will receive it.”

“Let me assure the American public, as we did so with those returning from China and those returning from the other cruise ship (Diamond Princess in Japan), we are taking all measures necessary to see to the health of Americans and those involved in Grand Princess and, just as importantly, to protect the health of the American public and prevent the spread of the disease thru communities in this country.”

Mary Ellen Carroll, the San Francisco Director of the Department of Emergency Management, at a Thursday morning news conference, said there were several factors that needed to be considered for determining where the ship will dock.

“Many of those people (who had fallen in during the 15-day cruise) have recovered and are no longer showing flu-like symptoms,” she said. “Once we have results from the (coronavirus) tests, the CDC and the state will determine the most appropriate location for the ship to berth. That location needs to provide for the safety of the surrounding community as well as the passengers.”

“The CDC and the state are considering a number of locations including San Francisco,” she added.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2...ger-san-francisco-health-stranded-passengers/

 

[russ_watters]

And how will companies survive when forced to pay everyone to be home sick simultaneously for the next 3 months?

This is a serious problem, potentially needing its own thread. Schools are already closing in my area due to local incidences of the virus, and I've seen at least one college do the same. It is conceivable that in the next few weeks a substantial number of schools, colleges and business with large public gatherings (restaurants, sports arenas, etc.) may close, for several months. I don't want to continue the previous post's complaint, but regardless of federally required employee benefits, there are a lot of businesses that simply could not survive a few weeks much less months of inactivity. A company can't pay its government-required employee benefits if it goes out of business. The potential economic impact is considerable.

 

[PeterDonis]

I rather suspect neither the US or European countries have dealt with, in modern times, an issue like Coronavirus.

I think this is a bit extreme. In the US, the numbers of identified cases and deaths from Coronavirus are roughly 1/1000 of the corresponding numbers for this winter's flu season. So a reasonable perspective on Coronavirus in the US is not "a huge new issue that we haven't dealt with before", but "a small additional blip in the flu season that we deal with every year". I suspect numbers for other developed countries are similar.

 

[PeterDonis]

It is conceivable that in the next few weeks a substantial number of schools, colleges and business with large public gatherings (restaurants, sports arenas, etc.) may close, for several months.

Do you really expect it to be months? Businesses don't close for months every winter because of the flu season. I am hopeful that people will start to put Coronavirus into perspective and start dealing with it as basically part of the flu season instead of being some separate thing.

 

[atyy]

Do you really expect it to be months? Businesses don't close for months every winter because of the flu season. I am hopeful that people will start to put Coronavirus into perspective and start dealing with it as basically part of the flu season instead of being some separate thing.

It has to be treated far more seriously than seasonal flu, and yet it does not mean having to close businesses for months.

 

[atyy]

This is a serious problem, potentially needing its own thread. Schools are already closing in my area due to local incidences of the virus, and I've seen at least one college do the same. It is conceivable that in the next few weeks a substantial number of schools, colleges and business with large public gatherings (restaurants, sports arenas, etc.) may close, for several months. I don't want to continue the previous post's complaint, but regardless of federally required employee benefits, there are a lot of businesses that simply could not survive a few weeks much less months of inactivity. A company can't pay its government-required employee benefits if it goes out of business. The potential economic impact is considerable.

Each region must decide what the reasonable measures are. But it should not be seen as stop the virus or stop normal life - the point is to stop the virus as much as we can so that normal life can go on as much as possible.

As I said, each region will decide for itself what the reasonable measures are. However, it does not necessarily include closing schools for long periods of time. In Singapore, where the virus is taken extremely seriously, all schools have continued, but with precautions such as monitoring the health of students daily so that sick students are sent to the doctor, and with attendance taken so that contacts can be put on a leave of absence or quarantine if student or teacher does get the coronavirus. So far, we have had at least one teacher and one student get the virus. As I understand from news reports, the schools with the confirmed Coronavirus cases as a whole have closed perhaps for one or two days to clean the facilities, but then resumed after that, with probably (not sure exactly) close contacts (classmates) put on leave of absence or e-learning from home as a precautionary measure. In the case of the teacher, the case happened long enough ago that it seems likely that no other students or teachers in the school got the virus, at least in part because the teacher took medical leave immediately upon onset of flu-like symptoms. Activities like school camps in all schools have been cancelled.

Businesses in Singapore are also taking a big hit (talking to wait staff at my favourite restaurants, it seems business is down by 50%, and I'm pretty sure lots are worried for their jobs), but the government is putting in place some things like tax rebates etc. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...e-timely-relief-businesses-more-help-12447786

 

[jedishrfu]

In Austin Texas, there were two big events coming up SXSW and Explore UT. The mayor issued a local disaster proclamation and both events have been canceled. SXSW is a really big event with music acts coming from all over the world to play here. A lot of money will be lost because of this cancellation.

Explore UT is a more regional event with schools sending busloads of kids to the UT Austin campus for an open house event where students showcase what they've doing in order to inspire middle school kids to consider college.

As far as I know, there have been no COVID-19 cases in Austin. There are several cases announced in Houston with some hospital employees who came in contact with the patients self-quarantined. Houston is two hours east of Austin.

I expect more cities across Texas and the US will do the same.

https://abc13.com/5993682/

 

[chirhone]

What's the consensus here about the expiration of 70% alcohol?

I plan to buy a box of it or more. But if the lockdown didn't occur and I didn't get to use it. There is an expiration date of around 2022.

What really happens when alcohol expired. I googled it but there seems to be no definite answer, so what is your experience on it? Does the concentration change or there is a chemical reaction? Like Wine?

By the way. What countries also use the following alert levels? Sub-level 2 means there is community transmission. I wonder if there is a Level 1 too.

 

[mfb]

So a reasonable perspective on Coronavirus in the US is not "a huge new issue that we haven't dealt with before", but "a small additional blip in the flu season that we deal with every year".

Only if we manage to stop its spread somewhat soon. If we say "it's just a small additional blib" and do nothing then it might grow to be worse than the seasonal flu. It's still growing rapidly even with all the things we do. The US has 340 confirmed cases, and probably several hundred unconfirmed ones. If the cases double every 4 days (toy example but not too far away from the spread in China) and this keeps going we are looking at ~10 million cases end of April with ~100,000 deaths even if the healthcare system can keep up with a million people needing a hospital.

South Korea still seems to be on a good track. They test much more than others (maybe apart from China), so they can react much faster. That makes the situation look worse initially but ultimately it is the much better option.

@russ: As I said, different interpretations of what freedom means and what is more important. I know what I consider more important.

Do you really think that will still be true when everyone who works in electricity production is at home because of government-forced home-quarantine? And how will companies survive when forced to pay everyone to be home sick simultaneously for the next 3 months?

Not everyone will get sick, not all who do will get sick at the same time, people won't be sick for 3 months, and the plans always come with some contingency exactly because some people get sick.
In Germany, for smaller companies the health insurance pays 80% of the salary during paid sick leave (+- many special cases for ... reasons). All these dramatic problems are actually non-issues, or issues that have been solved long ago.

A shortage of customers is a serious issue for affected sectors, I agree.

 

[bhobba]

the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.

It's cray. They should all be removed, quarantined and tested. So the US will need to pay the bill. This is a pandemic - wake up. It's like here in Aus - the government promised a surplus so what does the media howl on about - is the surplus in jeopardy. Who cares - you do what is necessary in emergencies. Time enough after to look at issues like that and figure out the best way forward.

Regarding contractors and sick leave (ie they do not get any - in fact some get docked extra if they do not turn up) it has been an issue that needs fixing for quite a while here in Aus. There are a number of ways of fixing it, I will leave which one up to the politicians, but right now the government should pass laws forcing the sick to stay at home and compensate them for financial loss because of it.

This is no time to penny pinch.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeterDonis]

If the cases double every 4 days

I don't think they will keep rising at that rate. I expect the rate of new cases to taper off more quickly in the US and other developed countries than it did in China.

 

[bhobba]

It has to be treated far more seriously than seasonal flu, and yet it does not mean having to close businesses for months.

The reason is obvious - we have a vaccine for the flu - but at this point not for coronovirus. Whatever needs to be done should be done. If businesses need to close - so be it - but IMHO that will be an unlikely last resort - still if required it is not something we should shy away from. The government can compensate them if necessary. Regarding the flu I am of the belief everyone should be vaccinated, especially now because anyone that gets the flu will put unneeded strain on the medical system. If not done voluntarily the government may have to take action - but again hopefully not. I will be the first in line once the flu vaccine is available at my local clinic (end March here in Aus) - in fact my doctors have more or less 'ordered' I must get the flu vaccine every year because of underlying autoimmune conditions.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

I don't think they will keep rising at that rate. I expect the rate of new cases to taper off more quickly in the US and other developed countries than it did in China.

That I agree with - people are only talking worst case scenarios when discussing business, school and university closures, forcing people not to go to work etc when sick. But if necessary we can't shy away from it.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 5 March 2020
5 March 2020

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Good afternoon, and thank you once again for joining us in person and online.
Today I want to start by saying thank you to all our colleagues in the media. As providers of information, you play a vital role in the response to COVID-19.
The fight against rumours and misinformation is a vital part of the battle against this virus. We rely on you to make sure people have accurate information about the threat they face, and how to protect themselves and others.
Now to the numbers.
There is now a total of 95,265 reported cases of COVID-19 globally, and 3281 deaths.
In the past 24 hours, China reported 143 cases. Most cases continue to be reported from Hubei province, and 8 provinces have not reported any cases in the last 14 days.
Outside China, 2055 cases were reported in 33 countries. Around 80% of those cases continue to come from just three countries.
We see encouraging signs from the Republic of Korea. The number of newly-reported cases appears to be declining, and the cases that are being reported are being identified primarily from known clusters.
Although a few countries are reporting large numbers of cases, 115 countries have not reported any cases.
21 countries have reported only one case.
And 5 countries that had reported cases have not reported new cases in the past 14 days.
The experience of these countries and of China continues to demonstrate that this is not a one-way street.
This epidemic can be pushed back, but only with a collective, coordinated and comprehensive approach that engages the entire machinery of government.
We are calling on every country to act with speed, scale and clear-minded determination.
Although we continue to see the majority of cases in a handful of countries, we are deeply concerned about the increasing number of countries reporting cases, especially those with weaker health systems.
However, this epidemic is a threat for every country, rich and poor. As we have said before, even high-income countries should expect surprises. The solution is aggressive preparedness.
We’re concerned that some countries have either not taken this seriously enough, or have decided there’s nothing they can do.
We are concerned that in some countries the level of political commitment and the actions that demonstrate that commitment do not match the level of the threat we all face.
This is not a drill.
This is not the time to give up.
This is not a time for excuses.
This is a time for pulling out all the stops.
Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans.
These are plans that start with leadership from the top, coordinating every part of government, not just the health ministry – security, diplomacy, finance, commerce, transport, trade, information and more – the whole government should be involved.
Activate your emergency plans through that whole-government approach.
Educate your public, so that people know what the symptoms are and know how to protect themselves and others.
Increase your testing capacity.
Get your hospitals ready.
Ensure essential supplies are available.
Train your health workers to identify cases, provide careful and compassionate treatment, and protect themselves from infection.
If countries act aggressively to find, isolate and treat cases, and to trace every contact, they can change the trajectory of this epidemic.
If we take the approach that there’s nothing we can do, that will quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It’s in our hands.
WHO has published step-by-step guidelines for countries to develop their national action plans according to eight key areas, which are supported by detailed technical guidance.
We call on all countries to accelerate those plans, and we stand ready to work with them to do that.
More funding is being made available to support countries that need it, and that have plans in place.
As you know, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have both made funds available to stabilize health systems and mitigate the economic consequences of the epidemic, with a special focus on enabling access to critical supplies and equipment.
I had also a very fruitful discussion with the President of the African Development Bank.
This is funding that is available now to countries who need it, in line with WHO’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan.
These funds are essential for supporting the response now, but also for long-term preparedness.
Although COVID-19 presents an acute threat now, it is absolutely essential that countries do not lose this opportunity to strengthen their preparedness systems.
We know people are afraid, and that’s normal and appropriate.
That fear can be managed and moderated with accurate information. Today WHO has launched a new social media campaign called Be Ready for COVID-19, which urges people to be safe, smart and informed.
If you feel overwhelmed by fear, reach out to those around you. Find out what your community’s emergency response plans are, how you fit in and how you can help.
There’s still a lot we don’t know, but every day we’re learning more, and we’re working around the clock to fill in the gaps in our knowledge.
Ultimately, how deadly this virus will be depends not only on the virus itself, but on how we respond to it.
This is a serious disease. It is not deadly to most people, but it can kill.
We’re all responsible for reducing our own risk of infection, and if we’re infected, for reducing our risk of infecting others.
There’s something all of us can do to protect vulnerable people in our communities.
That’s why we keep talking about solidarity.
This is not just a threat for individual people, or individual countries.
We’re all in this together, and we can only save lives together.
I thank you.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---5-march-2020

 

[mfb]

I don't think they will keep rising at that rate. I expect the rate of new cases to taper off more quickly in the US and other developed countries than it did in China.

What would cause a change? In China it was extreme quarantine measures. I don't expect any democracy to do this, or to do this too late. In South Korea it is the ability to find most infected people quickly via mass testing. The US isn't doing that so far, and it only gets harder with more cases. It's still a viable approach but it needs a change in the way this outbreak is handled in the US. The rising temperatures might limit the spread, ultimately. Who knows.

 

[atyy]

I plan to buy a box of it or more. But if the lockdown didn't occur and I didn't get to use it. There is an expiration date of around 2022.

70% alcohol by itself does not go bad. So if it is in a bottle, and the bottle has been capped, it should be fine.

However, my experience with individually-wrapped alcohol swabs is that they do dry out after many years (not sure why, it does seem like the wrapping is intact) - this will be obvious - the swab is dry, not wet.

 

[chirhone]

70% alcohol by itself does not go bad. So if it is in a bottle, and the bottle has been capped, it should be fine.

It should be fine even 10 years past the expiration date? no chemical changes in the alcohol at all? Are you sure of that?

However, my experience with individually-wrapped alcohol swabs is that they do dry out after many years (not sure why, it does seem like the wrapping is intact) - this will be obvious - the swab is dry, not wet.

 

[atyy]

It should be fine even 10 years past the expiration date? no chemical changes in the alcohol at all? Are you sure of that?

Yes, it should be fine. The problem is not chemical changes, the problem is evaporation. The alcohol evaporates faster than the water in 70% alcohol, so if you leave it open over a long time, the 70% alcohol will become more dilute. If one caps the bottle quickly each time, this should be minimized. You can buy 95% or 99% alcohol and dilute it yourself. If you dilute it yourself, it doesn't have to be exactly 70% alcohol (60-90% alcohol will be basically ok), In fact 95% alcohol will inactivate the virus very well, as long as you let the alcohol remain in contact with whatever you want to disinfect for 30 seconds. Usually I make my dilutions to 80% alcohol. Apart from water helping to slow the evaporation of pure alcohol, the water helps the alcohol penetrate some types of dirt.
https://blog.gotopac.com/2019/07/24/what-is-the-shelf-life-of-isopropyl-alcohol-ipa-does-it-expire/
https://blog.gotopac.com/2017/05/15...than-99-isopropanol-and-what-is-ipa-used-for/

 

[Haorong Wu]

Please use a medical mask if you can get some, and do not go outside unless necessary.

After the government ask people to wear medical masks when they go out, the situation is turning good. There is no new increase in China except Wuhan.

I hope the virus would die out asap.

 

[mfb]

Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people
It's not a full quarantine but people a need permission to enter/leave their region in this cluster of regions, so it will limit travel a lot. There are also restrictions in these regions - events being canceled and so on.
Clearly the hope is to isolate all clusters outside, and to limit spread inside with stricter measures.

Please use a medical mask if you can get some

Largely useless unless you are infected.

After the government ask people to wear medical masks when they go out, the situation is turning good.

Correlation and causation are different things.

 

[bhobba]

Government mandated paid sick leave is not "freedom", it is government-forced support instead of personal responsibility/choices. That's not a value judgment - that doesn't mean it is right or wrong, it just is what it is, by the historical definition.

Similar to compulsory superannuation here in Australia, so that the taxpayer will not have an unsustainable pension burden, it would be, for example, simple for those on casual work etc that do not have sick leave as part of their pay, pay into a fund that is used when you are sick. Everyone should stay home when sick so as not to infect others and industry will in fact run better. At the moment some not only not get paid, but get docked if they do not turn up. It's not hard nor much of a violation of freedom. It's like 'free' education. Society can't function without a minimum amount of education - nobody these days worries about paying for that in tax - we need it to function. There is room to discuss how you would pay for it. Ayn Rand types would have a different solution to Bernie Sanders. That's all part of public debate - but there are some things society needs for it to actually function.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kadiot]

I shudder to think of a situation where a visitor who is infected with Covid 19 but is asymptomatic, infects the inmate who was visited... and, the inmate, in turn, infects a whole lot of them in a crowded facility...

I hope every government is prepared to deal with this scenario. The prison cells in my country are overcrowded.

 

[hagopbul]

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...-project-defines-normal-bacterial-makeup-body

Could this have any effect on the research for Covid-19 origin or treatment ?

I have only high school background in relation to biology

Best
Hagop

 

[atyy]

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...-project-defines-normal-bacterial-makeup-body

Could this have any effect on the research for Covid-19 origin or treatment ?

Not that I can immediately think of. The microbiome normally refers to bacteria, whereas COVID-19 is a virus.

 

[hagopbul]

Not that I can immediately think of. The microbiome normally refers to bacteria, whereas COVID-19 is a virus.

Please read the article there is viruses included in the definition of micobiome

 

[atyy]

Please read the article there is viruses included in the definition of micobiome

OK, but I still don't see immediately how this will help. Do you have a suggestion?

 

[kadiot]

The unthinkable has happened. For over a month. Many friends and people thought somehow we wouldn't be affected either because of our unique weather, our recent volcano eruption which some hoped sterilizes the air, or grace from God.

But it happened. We have now confirmed local transmission. And we are in a state of emergency. Our official called it "Red Alert Sublevel-1". How many sublevels are there before it gets to level 1? Is it related to the Biohazard Sublevels in Ebola?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/07/20/code-red-philippines-coronavirus-cases-rise-to-6-doh-confirms-local-transmission

"In the event of a sustained community transmission or an increasing number of local cases whose links cannot be established, Duque said the strategy will be shifted from an intensive contact tracing to the implementation of community-level quarantine or lockdown and/or possibly, suspension of work or school."

Now is the time to be prepared. One must at least secure the doors because in days to come, the most important commodities would be bottles of water, toilet paper, sugar, alcohol, masks, etc. Our water supply system is so dirty we can't drink it.

View attachment 258319Next week. I need to acquire license for military grade armors and weaponry. I don't even own a gun! Many of you own shotguns. The battle has begin. We don't have the discipline of a Wuhan style calm lockdown, but more of aggressive type due to our $7 a day income for millions (imagine Syrian uprising).

Our comforting thoughts is that whatever happens. Humanity will not perish. I heard Antartica is still uncontaminated by it. And it is a big place and perhaps a safe place to survive the contagion. (I just acquire the movie Contagion and will watch it today).

Deep breath, Kabayan.

Here are the things that you can do now:

1. Wash your hands.
2. Avoid crowds.
3. Stay home as much as possible.
4. Work from home if possible.
5. Tell your grandparents avoid going out at all.
6. Be self-sufficient as much as possible.
7. Follow quarantine if necessary.
8. If you are sick, STAY HOME unless you need to see a doctor. If Covid19 symptoms persist, inform your doctor and don't hide.
9. Pray.

Everything will be ok.

 

[Jarvis323]

I think this is a bit extreme. In the US, the numbers of identified cases and deaths from Coronavirus are roughly 1/1000 of the corresponding numbers for this winter's flu season. So a reasonable perspective on Coronavirus in the US is not "a huge new issue that we haven't dealt with before", but "a small additional blip in the flu season that we deal with every year". I suspect numbers for other developed countries are similar.

People were making this comparison before it even spread here. It's a pretty misleading argument to make when the scientific research suggests 40 to 70% of the population is likely to get the virus. Under this kind of analysis, no virus (even one that would send us to extinction) would be as bad as the common cold.

I don't think they will keep rising at that rate. I expect the rate of new cases to taper off more quickly in the US and other developed countries than it did in China.

Have you seen the containment effort and preparedness of China compared to the US? This is an extremely unsupported assumption. In fact, I would strongly argue the opposite is more likely.

Largely useless unless you are infected.Correlation and causation are different things.

Widespread mask use would be a really useful measure, especially since most people are un-diagnosed and mostly asymptomatic while contagious. The problem is that we don't have masks (not even enough for nurses and doctors).

 

[hagopbul]

OK, but I still don't see immediately how this will help. Do you have a suggestion?

1 could the human microbiom related to the Covid-19 development like something interacted with it and results the covid-19?

2 could we use the microbiom community to strengthen the immune system against covid-19

As I said it is a bit of information came to my mind I don't know if it is helpful after all biology is not my field , we physics people need a special training to be able to talk even deeper in relation to biology or to find how Physics can effects other majors ,

Best
Hagop

 

[atyy]

1 could the human microbiom related to the Covid-19 development like something interacted with it and results the covid-19?

2 could we use the microbiom community to strengthen the immune system against covid-19

As I said it is a bit of information came to my mind I don't know if it is helpful after all biology is not my field , we physics people need a special training to be able to talk even deeper in relation to biology or to find how Physics can effects other majors ,

I see. Good questions. Regarding the second one, a quick google finds some papers about whether the microbiome affects influenza:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0207898
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.01551/full#h5

 

[hutchphd]

Freedom - historically and in the US - has quite simply meant individual responsibility, accountability and choices(vs government mandates).

Some of our leaders have disagreed with this:

1. Freedom of speech
2. Freedom of worship
3. Freedom from want
4. Freedom from fear

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Freedoms