COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[russ_watters]

Here in Canada we've seen a gradual increase of cases, but no large-scale community transmission (yet). I believe as of this moment we have 117 confirmed cases nationwide (with 42 being in my home province of Ontario).

We only have 21 confirmed in pennsylvania, but 13 are in my county, and with a shortage of test kits the actual number is surely much higher.

...and actually I double checked the news and that infected doctor who is the source of many of the cases was just identified on Monday, having worked since March 1 after returning from an overseas vacation.

 

[Evo]

Many businesses in my area came out of the weekend and immediately implemented work-from-home policies, some as aggressive as requiring it for non-essential workers ("Anyone who can work from home MUST work from home."). Road traffic has dropped in my area, but not by a huge amount. The immediate impact for my business (A&E/construction for pharma) has been more people in the office, as people who would otherwise be visiting clients are now here. But I would think that either by policy or individual choice there will be significant working from home starting soon (school closures will trigger the need if nothing else). A large pharma manufacturing conference I was supposed to attend in NYC in April has been postponed to the summer. I've been on a monthly travel rotation to California (got back last Friday) and a colleague is scheduled to fly out on Sunday. He's still planning to go but will re-evaluate as it gets closer.

My youngest daughter's company has ordered everyone to work at home starting Monday, indefinitely. It's a software company and she's a project manager, so it makes sense, they do a lot of video conferences already.

On the crazy side, Walmart was completely sold out of toilet paper, paper towels, cleansing wipes, all shelves empty, you can't order anything online either, not at regular prices. Some scammer had a pack listed for $300, they should have a "report fraud" button. Small companies can sell through Walmart online and set their own price, similar to Amazon.

Right now I'm eyeing the leaves that blew over into my lawn from next door...

 

[bhobba]

Even so I'm still confused, is the higher death rate from the virus spreading more easily or because it produces harsher symptoms?

The death rate varies from country to country depending on the number tested and how good the health system is. I will take Singapore with a rate of about .5 and the flu .1. Naively that would be 5 times. But other factors come into it - most notably we have a vaccine for the flu - the WSJ quoted Neil Fishman, who is chief medical officer at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania and an infectious-disease specialist: “I think what we’re seeing with Covid-19 is what influenza would look like without a vaccine,” So I do not think its 5 times worse than the flu except for older people where its worse than the flu - maybe over 5 times worse. There are a couple of other differences:

1. It's inverted who it affects. In the flu it affects badly the young and the old - for the Coronovirus the old are mostly affected and have a higher death rate. In the middle - say between 20 and 50 it seems about the same.

2. The number of people an infected person passes on the disease onto, called r0, is about 1.7 for the flu and 2 for the Coronovirus. This means it spreads faster - making measures to slow that down such as constant hand-washing and social distancing more important. It is also important when we get a vaccine - you need an r0 less the 1 to get what's called heard immunity ie it basically dies out. For the flu a little math shows if everyone gets vaccinated it only needs to be 40-50% effective for that to happen - but they rarely get the flu viruses going around exactly right, and not enough people get vaccinated. With the Coronovirus you will need a vaccine to be 50-60% effective and nearly everyone gets vaccinated. Also note how fast it spreads does not affect the death rate - just how fast they get it and hence, in the same time period, how many die.

We are learning more all the time. But my guess from what I have read is if you are under 50 its not much worse than if you were not vaccinated for the flu - over 50 - especially over 60 - that's when you have to worry - it looks likely for that age group its worse than the flu and the group that really has to watch it.

Tom Hanks is about 64 and in that age group, plus has diabetes as well - it will be interesting to see, with modern treatment here in Australia, exactly how he goes - almost certainly he will be fine - but of course we will need to wait and see. The hospital he is in (University Gold Coast Hospital) has said rather 'immodestly' if you get Coronovirus its the hospital you want to be treated at.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

U.S Food & Drug Administration

For Immediate Release:

March 09, 2020

FDA NEWS RELEASE

Coronavirus Update: FDA and FTC Warn Seven Companies Selling Fraudulent Products that Claim to Treat or Prevent COVID-19

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued warning letters to seven companies for selling fraudulent COVID-19 products. These products are unapproved drugs that pose significant risks to patient health and violate federal law. The FDA and FTC are taking this action as part of their response in protecting Americans during the global COVID-19 outbreak. The warning letters are the first to be issued by the FDA for unapproved products intended to prevent or treat “Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019” (COVID-19).

“The FDA considers the sale and promotion of fraudulent COVID-19 products to be a threat to the public health. We have an aggressive surveillance program that routinely monitors online sources for health fraud products, especially during a significant public health issue such as this one,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “We understand consumers are concerned about the spread of COVID-19 and urge them to talk to their health care providers, as well as follow advice from other federal agencies about how to prevent the spread of this illness. We will continue to aggressively pursue those that place the public health at risk and hold bad actors accountable.”

“There already is a high level of anxiety over the potential spread of coronavirus,” said FTC Chairman Joe Simons. “What we don’t need in this situation are companies preying on consumers by promoting products with fraudulent prevention and treatment claims. These warning letters are just the first step. We’re prepared to take enforcement actions against companies that continue to market this type of scam.”

The FDA is particularly concerned that products that claim to cure, treat or prevent serious diseases like COVID-19 may cause consumers to delay or stop appropriate medical treatment, leading to serious and life-threatening harm.

[. . .]

###

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...es-selling-fraudulent-products-claim-treat-or

 

[DennisN]

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued warning letters to seven companies for selling fraudulent COVID-19 products. These products are unapproved drugs that pose significant risks to patient health and violate federal law.
[...]
The FDA is particularly concerned that products that claim to cure, treat or prevent serious diseases like COVID-19 may cause consumers to delay or stop appropriate medical treatment, leading to serious and life-threatening harm.

Yet another example of the actual and serious health risks that can be associated with pseudoscientific (alternative) medicine in general. The list is long.

EDIT:

It has been previously mentioned a few times in this thread that it is believed the corona virus may have its origin in bats and spread to humans via pangolins. Since I am generally a curious person I yesterday read on the pangolin wiki page:

Pangolins are in high demand for Chinese traditional medicine in southern China and Vietnam because their scales are believed to have medicinal properties. Their meat is also considered a delicacy.

and

Nucleic acid sequences of viruses taken from pangolins have been found to be a 99% match to those of the virus which causes COVID-19, SARS Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and is responsible for the 2019–20 Coronavirus pandemic.

I am not suggesting alternative medicine is to blame¹ for the virus outbreak, but I find the coincidence to be very ironic.

¹ I have not read anything about this, and have very little knowledge about the actual source of the outbreak.

 

[WWGD]

Where are you? In San Antonio sanitizer and wipes are in short supply but IPA alcohol is still available at Wal Mart. I imagine on the west coast and New York the situation is different.

Isn't standard soap : for hand-washing and showering enough to create sanitary conditions?

 

[bhobba]

Isn't standard soap : for hand-washing and showering enough to create sanitary conditions?

It's actually a bit better because it removes skin oils the virus could otherwise stick to. But alcohol based products are still fine,

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

I still need to build things using parts shipped directly from China. A little PPE can't hurt.
https://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/threads/ppe-for-pcbs-directly-from-china.167875/post-1486334

 

[bhobba]

It seems like we turned a corner over the weekend and it's really snowballing this week. Going to be a surreal couple of months.

Yes.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Evo]

It's actually a bit better because it removes skin oils the virus could otherwise stick to. But alcohol based products are still fine,

Thanks
Bill

Twenty seconds of hand washing is a very good recommendation, but 60% ethanol will supposedly kill the virus. If you are out and regular hand washing is not an option, this is where the ethanol hand sanitizer would come into play. You shouldn't need hand sanitizer if you are at home and not living with someone with the virus.

 

[chemisttree]

Isn't standard soap : for hand-washing and showering enough to create sanitary conditions?

I think so. Soap needs a longer contact time than alcohol (>60% alcohol) but how much longer is difficult to say, higher temp is better than low temp. Cleaning wipes often have ingredients called quaternary ammonium compounds which will leave a residual that is a bacteriostat. Not sure if it is also a virus-“stat” (if that's a word?).

Hard surface cleaners are formulated to do a different job than hand soap so using a hand soap on a hard surface is probably ok for cleaning but might leave a useless residual like an emollient rather than a quat.
Here is the list of actives for the Costco Kirkland wipes.

And here is what Unilever has on its Dove bar.

Moisturizing cream is the likely residual for this bar used on a hard surface.

In my opinion, this is a better choice for cleaning hard surfaces but I haven’t done any residual antiviral studies, obviously. Just my opinion.

Washing soda and Oxi-Clean.

 

[WWGD]

A CDC Norovirus report from 6 years ago notes the following.

“However, 1 in 5 food service workers have reported working at least once in the previous year while sick with vomiting or diarrhea. Fear of job loss and not wanting to leave coworkers short-staffed were cited as significant factors in their decision.”

My advice: learn to cook and stay home!

Cook? Buy perishables and make sure you don't lose your can opener. Not sure why some recommend to buy water. In the 1st world tap water is drinkable with few exceptions, so why not just fill plastic jugs with tap water? The toilet paper thing I don't get, I admit.

 

[Evo]

I don't know if it's been posted, but here's the EPA's list of disinfectants that work against the Covid-19 virus.

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2020-03/documents/sars-cov-2-list_03-03-2020.pdf

 

[Evo]

Cook? Buy perishables and make sure you don't lose your can opener. Not sure why some recommend to buy water. In the 1st world tap water is drinkable with few exceptions, so why not just fill plastic jugs with tap water? The toilet paper thing I don't get, I admit.

I think the toilet paper thing comes from the "be prepared for 14 day self quarantine". If you are suspected of having the corona virus, here in the US you will be asked to self quarantine you and anyone living with you for 14 days, so they suggested having enough staples to hold you over for the 14 days since you would not be allowed to leave your house. Of course here in the US, just about anyone (prior to the panicked hoarding) could have just gone online and ordered delivery of anything they needed.

 

[chirhone]

Lock down has been declared in Metro Manila. Although the president referred to it as "Community Quarantine". Is this term used elsewhere?

Not only is the whole area under lockdown. They described how if there are 2 or more cases in the city or street blocks. The military and police will quarantine the area. Meaning no person can get in or outside, or restriction of movement.

Is this also true in Wuhan or Italy, but I didn't see any military restricting movement from one city to another. What would be the effect of any restriction of movement or true quarantine of any city with military and police occupying the streets?

 

[atyy]

Isn't standard soap : for hand-washing and showering enough to create sanitary conditions?

Yes, handwashing with standard soap is good enough. Don't worry about alcohol-based hand sanitizer if there is none or it is expensive. For similar viruses, 5 minutes of soap reduces the virus by 1000x, whereas 70% alcohol for 30 seconds reduces it by 10000x. One might worry that that applies to similar viruses, but not to this Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) - but basic reasoning about mechanism suggests that same numbers hold for SARS-CoV-2 - the virus has a lipid envelope that is disrupted by detergents. Now of course one does not normally wash one's hands for 5 minutes, not even 20 seconds. In these times, the recommendation is to try to be conscientious and lather and scrub well for 20 seconds. While that is still less than 5 minutes, handwashing will also mechanically wash off the virus, so 20 seconds of lathering and scrubbing followed by rinsing should be fine. If you are worried, just do that twice.

Frequent handwashing leads to dry and cracked skin, so I recommend getting your own bottle of moisturizer, Of course, make sure the moisturizer bottle is clean (wash the bottle first, dry it, then wash your hands, then apply the moisturizer).

I should add that although not so relevant here, handwashing with soap and water is likely generally superior to alcohol-based hand sanitizers, because the former is thought to be very much more effective against other types of viruses like norovirus.

 

[WWGD]

US suspends travel to Europe and NBA season is suspended! Tom Hanks has the virus. Wild day!

I think it is the other way around, travel from Europe is suspended:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...suspending-all-travel-from-europe-for-30-days

EDIT: Unless you meant that if you travel to Europe you will not be able to return if you choose to travel for less than 30 days.

 

[kyphysics]

QUESTION: does COVID-19 die by itself in human hosts who survive? ...Does the body just fight it and kill it naturally?

 

[atyy]

QUESTION: does COVID-19 die by itself in human hosts who survive? ...Does the body just fight it and kill it naturally?

Yes, in those who survive, the body fights and kills it naturally. The most common test for the COVID is a PCR test, which checks for the presence of viral RNA. Viral RNA alone is not infectious, but is a component of viable virus. In people who survive the disease, they will first test positive for viral RNA when they have the disease, and test negative after they have recovered from the disease (this may take some time, there are people who have recovered but still test positive for viral RNA).

The body fights the virus by producing antibodies against the virus. The antibodies are part of the body's way of killing the virus. Thus for some time after recovery (not sure how long), a person who has survived will test negative for viral RNA, but test positive for antibodies against the virus.

In Singapore, police work suggested that two COVID clusters were linked by people who had attended the same party. But by the time the police figured this out, the linking people had recovered, and had had symptoms (they had seen a general practitioner) that were not severe enough to warrant testing for viral RNA. However, their linking role was confirmed when they tested positive for antibodies against the virus.

@kadiot posted about this in #319
@BillTre posted an article about this in #405

 

[Haorong Wu]

Lock down has been declared in Metro Manila. Although the president referred to it as "Community Quarantine". Is this term used elsewhere?

Not only is the whole area under lockdown. They described how if there are 2 or more cases in the city or street blocks. The military and police will quarantine the area. Meaning no person can get in or outside, or restriction of movement.

Is this also true in Wuhan or Italy, but I didn't see any military restricting movement from one city to another. What would be the effect of any restriction of movement or true quarantine of any city with military and police occupying the streets?

In Hubei province, including Wuhan, people are forbidden from going to other cities. But recently, people in Hubei province, except Wuhan, could travel to other cities in Hubei province with conditions which we call "the green code". I am not sure what is the requirement for a green code. It seems to derive from big data, and a green code indicates that a person is healthy.

This restriction is fulfilled mainly by road administration staffs as far as I know. Military doctors are sent to Wuhan to help those infected, and some armed police troops which are part of the military system, may deployed to Hubei province, but I have no solid evidences. It is most unnecessary for military troops to occupy streets. First, most troops are lockdown in their bases. Second, most of people are willing to obay the govenment restriction.

Weeks ago, in other provinces of China, if you go to other cities, you must be quaranteened for 14 days at home or at a hotel before you can go out. This policy has been partially canceled since the situation turns good.

 

[George Jones]

The 2020 World Women's Curling Championships, which were scheduled to take place in my city starting on Saturday, have been canceled.

Because my daughter qualified for the British Columbia provincial speed skating championships, we were going to make a 9-hour drive tomorrow, but these, too, were canceled (about an hour ago).

 

[Evo]

This is getting insane. My next door neighbors are retired and work for Walmart to get extra retirement income. She said they are out of almost everything, all food, dried beans, rice, pasta, canned & jarred goods, frozen foods, people are coming through buying $300-$500 at a time, dragging multiple carts.

She said they got a shipment of toilet paper today and there was a frenzy to the point people were getting injured. It was all gone in a few moments when the mob cleared. And this is in a wealthy area.

 

[Evo]

I found out where the idiotic suggestion to stock up on bottled water came from.

The Department of Homeland Security recommends stocking up on bottled water as well.

Maybe misinterpreted from this Homeland Security website

https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

Before a Pandemic

• Store a two week supply of water and food.

Why stock up on water?

 

[chemisttree]

I don't know if it's been posted, but here's the EPA's list of disinfectants that work against the Covid-19 virus.

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2020-03/documents/sars-cov-2-list_03-03-2020.pdf

Many of these are institutional cleaners or are sold out in various locations.

 

[chemisttree]

Why stock up on water?

I’m sure it’s because most people don’t have fresh water taps plumbed to the closet they will be hiding during the epoxy lips.

 

[Evo]

Many of these are institutional cleaners or are sold out in various locations.

And aren't really necessary unless the virus is INSIDE YOUR HOUSE.

People get a GRIP!

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

This is getting insane. My next door neighbors are retired and work for Walmart to get extra retirement income. She said they are out of almost everything, all food, dried beans, rice, pasta, canned & jarred goods, frozen foods, people are coming through buying $300-$500 at a time, dragging multiple carts.

Yeah I was just at Walgreens and the supermarket and they were totally out of cleaning supplies and toilet paper. People were also cramming food into shopping carts like it was the end of the world. Cart lines down the isles.

 

[Evo]

Yeah I was just at Walgreens and the supermarket and they were totally out of cleaning supplies and toilet paper. People were also cramming food into shopping carts like it was the end of the world. Cart lines down the isles.

This has really been mishandled by our government. People are frightened and confused.

 

[chirhone]

In Hubei province, including Wuhan, people are forbidden from going to other cities. But recently, people in Hubei province, except Wuhan, could travel to other cities in Hubei province with conditions which we call "the green code". I am not sure what is the requirement for a green code. It seems to derive from big data, and a green code indicates that a person is healthy.

How are people prevented from going to other cities in Wuhan? All transportations were frozen and there are police checkpoints? If not. How do they monitor if people indeed go to other cities?
Here we will have military and police presence and checkpoints in every corner.

How about Italy. I heard movements are allowed. Does it mean people there can go to other cities? How is the quarantined implemented if not?

This restriction is fulfilled mainly by road administration staffs as far as I know. Military doctors are sent to Wuhan to help those infected, and some armed police troops which are part of the military system, may deployed to Hubei province, but I have no solid evidences. It is most unnecessary for military troops to occupy streets. First, most troops are lockdown in their bases. Second, most of people are willing to obay the govenment restriction.

Weeks ago, in other provinces of China, if you go to other cities, you must be quaranteened for 14 days at home or at a hotel before you can go out. This policy has been partially canceled since the situation turns good.

 

[DennisN]

She said they got a shipment of toilet paper today and there was a frenzy to the point people were getting injured. It was all gone in a few moments when the mob cleared. And this is in a wealthy area.

A report by me from my place in Malmö (Scania, Sweden) (I live in the central part of the city):

(I'm in a self-imposed isolation due to a cold with fever)

Yesterday I decided to get a thermometer, since I have a cold and occasional fever, and I wanted to keep a good check on my temperature. The most nearby, small pharmacy was out of thermometers.

After that I went to a nearby hardware store to get a thermometer. The store, which usually often has many customers, was almost completely empty of people. It was quite eerie, actually. I was the only customer, and there were only a couple of workers there. They were out of fever thermometers (I wonder why ) , so I bought a weather thermometer instead. Better than nothing, I thought.

Later in the evening I went to another nearby larger pharmacy and managed to get hold of their last thermometer in stock. Lucky me!

Later at home I did a measurement and the fever was rather mild.
But the measurement may have collapsed my quantum superposition of being healthy/sick.

 

[Evo]

A report by me from my place in Malmö (Scania, Sweden) (I live in the central part of the city):

Yesterday I decided to get a thermometer, since I have a cold and occasional fever, and I wanted to keep a good check on my temperature. The most nearby, small pharmacy was out of thermometers.

After that I went to a nearby hardware store to get a thermometer. The store, which usually often has many customers, was almost completely empty. It was quite eerie, actually. I was the only customer, and there were only a couple of workers there. They were out of fever thermometers (I wonder why ) , so I bought a weather thermometer instead. Better than nothing, I thought.

Later in the evening I went to another nearby larger pharmacy and managed to get hold of their last thermometer in stock. Lucky me!

Later at home I did a measurement₁ and the fever was rather mild.
But the measurement may have collapsed my quantum superposition of being healthy/sick.

I have a meat thermometer that is so sensitive it will register the room temperature and also body temperature. I had no idea at the time I bought it. And what's cool is that it doesn't use batteries, it's kinetic, you just shake it to activate it.

 

[DennisN]

This has really been mishandled by our government. People are frightened and confused.

Obviously I don't live in the US, but I have actually followed the US news very closely the last week, due to my interest in world matters and the self-imposed isolation I did due to my cold with fever.

From my perspective, I can only agree with you, and I extend my condolences to US citizens here in this thread. And I could be much more precise with what I mean, but then I would have to go into human relations, social communications which may get me too close to US politics, which I don't want to comment on.

But I can say another thing which is quite remarkable here in Sweden:

The two main political rival coalitions have now very recently layed down their main disagreements to join together and focus on solving this health threat/health crisis with the coronavirus.

 

[chemisttree]

Later at home I did a measurement and the fever was rather mild.
But the measurement may have collapsed my quantum superposition of being healthy/sick.

Thank god it wasn’t a Schrödinger’s Cat thing!

 

[DennisN]

The two main political rival coalitions have now very recently layed down their main disagreements to join together and focus on solving this health threat/health crisis with the coronavirus.

By the way, here's the source article (in Swedish) and here's the same article translated to English (Google Translation).

 

[Vanadium 50]

I found out where the idiotic suggestion to stock up on bottled water came from.

Did you see how this goes back to 2011? Nine years of this.