COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[russ_watters]

Is there a curfew too for the general population?

No, but where would we go?

 

[WWGD]

No, but where would we go?

Sure. Maybe public parks, library, etc. Just to get out of the house for a while. Edit: I understand my question doesn't make that much sense but if I could, under those conditions, I would like to at least walk around the block for a few minutes just for sone exercise and fresh air.

 

[russ_watters]

Not at all. Neither the church in Baton Rouge nor I suggested the use of physical force. More of an MLK-style peaceful protest with policies we disagree with.

You can call it a "peaceful protest" if you want, but if you're defying an order and daring the police to move you, you're using your mass as physical force to resist movement/the order.

Legal force? That's just a synonym for asserting 1st Amendment rights. My attorney has recommended full compliance when presented with a court order supporting a specific church closure.

I wonder how many people in the US have a close enough professional relationship with a 1st Amendment attorney to call him "my attorney"? So yes, I call your looking seriously into your legal options for your intended actions a "unique" level of resistance.

 

[PeterDonis]

Maybe public parks, library, etc. Just to get out of the house for a while.

I don't see any reason to prohibit this. It should be easy enough to practice social distancing in places like these. My wife and I take care to keep our distance from other people when we take our dogs for walks.

 

[russ_watters]

Sure. Maybe public parks, library, etc. Just to get out of the house for a while. Edit: I understand my question doesn't make that much sense but if I could, under those conditions, I would like to at least walk around the block for a few minutes just for sone exercise and fresh air.

Government-staffed park facilities had already shut down, I think. The current order was just a one-page order about businesses. I don't think there is a current plan to stop people from leaving their homes (except for essential travel like grocery shopping), but it sounds like that's what San Francisco did, so I guess it is possible.

I don't see any reason to prohibit this. It should be easy enough to practice social distancing in places like these. My wife and I take care to keep our distance from other people when we take our dogs for walks.

San Francisco's order includes exceptions for hiking and dog-walking.

 

[Evo]

No, but where would we go?

Both of my daughters, due to health reasons, are self quarantined for their own safety. The youngest is very depressed because she is such a people person, she LOVES interacting with people live and helping them, working at home, she doesn't get to see where they are struggling and help. Most of these people don't even know enough to know what help they need on their own. I thrived on working at home, I'm a workaholic, so there was no limit to the hours I could work. I worked 12-16 hours a day, 7 days a week. I understand that it's not for everyone.

 

[dlgoff]

Are those her eggs on the left?

Yep.

 

[Evo]

Yep.

WOW! GO ROGER!

 

[Astronuc]

Today I went to the store and there were NO EGGS! NONE! Who hoards eggs?

Maybe they want to herd eggs? I hear it's easier than herding sheep or cats.

 

[russ_watters]

And now California's governor orders all residents to stay at home. No details yet on what exactly that means:

https://www.latimes.com/california/...-california-1-billion-federal-aid-coronavirus

[edit] For now it sounds like an "order" without teeth.

 

[morrobay]

Where I live garlic is an often recommended medicine for prevention in times with flu or cold

Indeed I chop up a few fresh cloves mixed with tomato juice, lemon, salt pepper , hot sauce and worchester sauce . I would like to know what the specific mechanisms are that have adverse effects on viruses.
http://journal.isv.org.ir/article-1-205-en.pdf

 

[mfb]

US finally ramped up testing: Table
13,000 tests on Monday, 22,000 tests on Tuesday, 27,000 tests on Wednesday.
Overall about 10% of the tests came back positive.

The breakdown by state shows large differences:
Alaska tested 406 and found 6 cases.
Montana tested 773 and found 12 cases.

Delaware tested 66 and found 30 cases.
Maryland tested 201 and found 107 cases.

 

[bhobba]

Regarding people defying societies efforts to mitigate, I believe it is a combination of stupidity, ignorance, and selfishness.

I think politicians sometimes actually believe their own rhetoric - Australians, Americans, British or whatever will all come together to fight this thing. Pigs might fly too. To be fair their have been many reported cases of people going above and beyond, unfortunately they are not the majority.

Thanks
Bill

 

[BillTre]

unfortunately they are not the majority.

Or may be they are just don't get much publicity.

 

[Astronuc]

Some treatment possibilities: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-vaccines-heres-where-things-stand-2020-03-06

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir#SARS-CoV-2

 

[nsaspook]

SACRAMENTO —
Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday ordered all Californians to stay at home, marking the first mandatory restrictions placed on the lives of all 40 million residents in the state’s fight against the novel coronavirus.
The governor’s action comes at a critical time in California, where 19 people have died and an additional 958 have tested positive for the disease.
The mandatory order allows Californians to continue to visit gas stations, pharmacies, grocery stores, farmers markets, food banks, convenience stores, take-out and delivery restaurants, banks and laundromats. People can leave their homes to care for a relative or a friend or seek health care services. It exempts workers in 16 federal critical infrastructure sectors, including food and agriculture, healthcare, transportation, energy, financial services, emergency response and others.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.co...-california-1-billion-federal-aid-coronavirus
IDENTIFYING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DURING COVID-19

Chemical Sector

Commercial Facilities Sector

Communications Sector

Critical Manufacturing Sector

Dams Sector

Defense Industrial Base Sector

Emergency Services Sector

Energy Sector

Financial Services Sector

Food and Agriculture Sector

Government Facilities Sector

Healthcare and Public Health Sector

Information Technology Sector

Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste Sector

Transportation Systems Sector

Water and Wastewater Systems Sector

 

[Keith_McClary]

Antisocial distancing
(Looks Good on Paper comic)
Funny, but also true?

 

[Rive]

I would like to know what the specific mechanisms are that have adverse effects on viruses.

I don't know about that, but garlic - especially if eaten raw - can be a great help with social distancing.
The same goes with some 'stinky' type cheese. Those even said to have a positive effect in understanding jokes too

If Lockdown for the common flu is initiated in the US. Would it kill the common flu virus? If not. Why would it kill the COVID-19 and not the common flu?

Lockdown kills the flu. As I recall there was a report about plummeting flu infections after lockdown - somewhere in the East, but I can't recall the specifics.
It is not used against flu because that is a rather 'mild' disease compared to this one.

 

[mfb]

Flu or common cold?

The common cold spreads much easier than SARS-CoV-2 and we don't force people to completely isolate themselves if they just have the common cold because it's a much milder disease.

 

[chirhone]

Flu or common cold?

The common cold spreads much easier than SARS-CoV-2 and we don't force people to completely isolate themselves if they just have the common cold because it's a much milder disease.

What is the difference beween flu or common cold? I only experienced common cold. I never have flu. What does having flu feel like?

 

[chirhone]

I don't know about that, but garlic - especially if eaten raw - can be a great help with social distancing.
The same goes with some 'stinky' type cheese. Those even said to have a positive effect in understanding jokes too Lockdown kills the flu. As I recall there was a report about plummeting flu infections after lockdown - somewhere in the East, but I can't recall the specifics.
It is not used against flu because that is a rather 'mild' disease compared to this one.

If lockdown kills the flu. Why is there still flu in the US that kills millions every year? Does it mean the COVID-19 can never disappar and will become like the flu in the US?

I mentioned flu in the US because it seems only the US have flu. I experience common colds but not flu.

 

[mfb]

What is the difference beween flu or common cold? I only experienced common cold. I never have flu. What does having flu feel like?

Very different things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza

I mentioned flu in the US because it seems only the US have flu.

Huh? No. It circulates worldwide.
We stop some strain of the flu every year, but the flu has many different strains and can be transmitted across species somewhat easily. Getting rid of all strains everywhere is unrealistic.

 

[Tom.G]

Here is a link to the California Governer lockdown order. Lots of references to different sections of the law so he may really mean it.
However there were several cities already under local lockdown that were not/could not be enforced.

https://covid19.ca.gov/img/N-33-20.pdf

 

[atyy]

What is the difference beween flu or common cold? I only experienced common cold. I never have flu. What does having flu feel like?

Flu versus common cold
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/coldflu.htm
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-cold-symptoms#1

Flu versus common cold versus Covid-19
https://www.ynhhs.org/-/media/image...hash=FDC6E55F219C3B56E98229B7CE91C0AF99BC1258

Covid-19 symptoms in Wuhan
https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/con...I3Dv8nRqDw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA

In Covid-19, only 40% of people have fever as an early symptom (the percentage with fever is about 85% later in the disease), so if you have other symptoms of Covid-19 without fever, you should still self-isolate and consult a doctor according to your local health system guidelines.

 

[Jarvis323]

It 's getting so bad. I don't know how we are going to manage this. Hospitals are already running out of PPE and having to make it DIY.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-masks-covid-19-shields-from-office-supplies

Without PPE, the heath care workers will get sick, doctors and nurses will die. We will very quickly be understaffed, demoralized, and over capacity; before it even really gets going. I have been thinking a lot about how under appreciated the health care staff is. I haven't heard many public officials thank them for their service and commend their bravery. They are going to be fighting in a truly terrifying war zone, with millions of lives depending on them.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-19-is-killing-italys-doctors-the-us-could-be-next

There's got to be lots of companies out there that can help. It would seem like a fairly trivial thing for some like Elon Musk to put his vast resources towards this. I hate to say this, but I think at this point the government should temporarily commandeer certain manufacturing facilities that are refusing to help, and ask for volunteers and even draft people to help transform them and make supplies. Is there any way for the public to help pressure them to get going? Can't we just grab a few thousand engineers and get to work; at least something better than nurses making masks out of office supplies?

As crazy as it sounds: Why couldn't we even get a group of PF members to come together and figure out how to make some improvised PPE? At least if it comes to health care workers making it themselves, couldn't we make some designs, figure out what supplies could be used that can be obtained in mass quantity, figure out the logistics, etc. If someone can even solve this problem on paper, it would be a pretty good help I would guess. Are there any grassroots platforms that can be used to organize efforts? I feel like they are probably just having discussions with executives and going through bureaucratic processes. Maybe legal issues will block this kind of thing?

The US is the country that said they were the most prepared in the entire world. That was obviously a lie, but still, I feel for the people in the many countries who may have even less resources.

 

[collinsmark]

If Lockdown for the common flu is initiated in the US. Would it kill the common flu virus? If not. Why would it kill the COVID-19 and not the common flu?

Right now. There are only 2 things that make me think very optimistic. One is my blood type is Type O+ (who else is type O+ here). Second is Trump (perhaps the world's only hope).

The goal of the social distancing, and in more extreme cases, "lockdowns," is not not necessarily to eliminate the virus altogether in the near term. Sure, that would be nice. But without installing incredibly draconian measures, it's probably not going to happen in this case before a vaccine is produced, which is over a year away. (probably closer to a year and a half)

No, instead the idea of the social distancing and lockdowns is reduce the spread of the virus so that it doesn't overwhelm our healthcare systems. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives can be saved so long as everybody doesn't contract the virus at once.

When the healthcare systems are overwhelmed, doctors will have to decide who lives and who dies, simply because there's not enough ventilators and/or other equipment to go around for everybody at once.

That's the main goal -- to spread it out a little over time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed at any given time. A secondary benefit of spreading it out over time, is that as time goes on, more and more enter the population who have recovered from the infection. People who have fully recovered have become immune (once you've recovered from a particular strain of virus, it's very unlikely that you would be infected for a second time, at least not for several years). This increases the "herd immunity" for the rest of the population who haven't been infected yet (more on that later). Because of this secondary result, there will be fewer people infected overall. And for both reasons there will be far fewer deaths.

For further research, google "flattening the curve."

You may be asking, "Well, why isn't the flu like that?" Strains of the flu that are in circulation today have been in circulation for a long time. For any given strain of the flu, it is likely that several people in your circle of friends and family have been infected with that particular strain of flu before; be it last year or maybe 5 or 10 years ago, or that they have been vaccinated. That means that you won't catch that particular strain of the flu from those particular people because those people still have some immunity to that particular strain. And since those are the people you interact with it means that it is less likely that you will catch that particular strain of the flu (i.e., less people that you could catch it from). That's what's called "herd immunity." (I should also mention that if you've been vaccinated with a flu shot for a particular strain of flu, then that's another way you can become immune without being infected yourself).

And that's one of the things that makes this Coronavirus different. While there are other coronaviruses in circulation, they are not like this strain. This strain is new, or "novel." Almost nobody is immune to it yet. Pretty much anybody can catch it from (or spread it to) anybody else. There's almost no immune people blocking the transmissions. At least not yet. We need more people in the population who have recovered from COVID-19 before that has an effect. (And eventually, of course, we'll have a vaccine within a year - year and a half from now.)

The other things that makes novel Coronavirus different is it is more deadly than the flu. Conservative estimates put it at about 10 times more deadly for those that contract it, compared to the flu.

 

[chirhone]

The goal of the social distancing, and in more extreme cases, "lockdowns," is not not necessarily to eliminate the virus altogether in the near term. Sure, that would be nice. But without installing incredibly draconian measures, it's probably not going to happen in this case before a vaccine is produced, which is over a year away. (probably closer to a year and a half)

No, instead the idea of the social distancing and lockdowns is reduce the spread of the virus so that it doesn't overwhelm our healthcare systems. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives can be saved so long as everybody doesn't contract the virus at once.

When the healthcare systems are overwhelmed, doctors will have to decide who lives and who dies, simply because there's not enough ventilators and/or other equipment to go around for everybody at once.

That's the main goal -- to spread it out a little over time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed at any given time. A secondary benefit of spreading it out over time, is that as time goes on, more and more enter the population who have recovered from the infection. People who have fully recovered have become immune (once you've recovered from a particular strain of virus, it's very unlikely that you would be infected for a second time, at least not for several years). This increases the "herd immunity" for the rest of the population who haven't been infected yet (more on that later). Because of this secondary result, there will be fewer people infected overall. And for both reasons there will be far fewer deaths.

For further research, google "flattening the curve."

View attachment 258969

You may be asking, "Well, why isn't the flu like that?" Strains of the flu that are in circulation today have been in circulation for a long time. For any given strain of the flu, it is likely that several people in your circle of friends and family have been infected with that particular strain of flu before; be it last year or maybe 5 or 10 years ago, or that they have been vaccinated. That means that you won't catch that particular strain of the flu from those particular people because those people still have some immunity to that particular strain. And since those are the people you interact with it means that it is less likely that you will catch that particular strain of the flu (i.e., less people that you could catch it from). That's what's called "herd immunity." (I should also mention that if you've been vaccinated with a flu shot for a particular strain of flu, then that's another way you can become immune without being infected yourself).

And that's one of the things that makes this Coronavirus different. While there are other coronaviruses in circulation, they are not like this strain. This strain is new, or "novel." Almost nobody is immune to it yet. Pretty much anybody can catch it from (or spread it to) anybody else. There's almost no immune people blocking the transmissions. At least not yet. We need more people in the population who have recovered from COVID-19 before that has an effect. (And eventually, of course, we'll have a vaccine within a year - year and a half from now.)

The other things that makes novel Coronavirus different is it is more deadly than the flu. Conservative estimates put it at about 10 times more deadly for those that contract it, compared to the flu.

What years or centuries ago did the flu become pandemic? And before people got immuned to it. Did it also overwhelm the US health system then requiring this flattening the curve?

 

[collinsmark]

What years or centuries ago did the flu become pandemic? And before people got immuned to it. Did it also overwhelm the US health system then requiring this flattening the curve?

There are several/many strains of influenza. So to fully answer your question we'd have to take each strain individually. (And that would be way out of my expertise.)

Complicating this fact is that a given strain can often mutate into a slightly different strain, over time, as it's passed from person to person. A person immune to the original strain might still retain a little bit of immunity to the mutated strain, but to a lesser degree.

Sometimes when a virus mutates it does so in a way that makes the mutated virus less deadly to its host (the idea is that living hosts are better at transmitting the disease than dead hosts, thus those mutations that survive are the ones less likely to kill the host). But again, I'm straying quite far away from my comfort zone of expertise here.

Anyway, a good example of a recent flu pandemic is the 1918 Flu Pandemic (H1N1):
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

 

[chirhone]

The goal of the social distancing, and in more extreme cases, "lockdowns," is not not necessarily to eliminate the virus altogether in the near term. Sure, that would be nice. But without installing incredibly draconian measures, it's probably not going to happen in this case before a vaccine is produced, which is over a year away. (probably closer to a year and a half)

No, instead the idea of the social distancing and lockdowns is reduce the spread of the virus so that it doesn't overwhelm our healthcare systems. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives can be saved so long as everybody doesn't contract the virus at once.

When the healthcare systems are overwhelmed, doctors will have to decide who lives and who dies, simply because there's not enough ventilators and/or other equipment to go around for everybody at once.

That's the main goal -- to spread it out a little over time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed at any given time. A secondary benefit of spreading it out over time, is that as time goes on, more and more enter the population who have recovered from the infection. People who have fully recovered have become immune (once you've recovered from a particular strain of virus, it's very unlikely that you would be infected for a second time, at least not for several years). This increases the "herd immunity" for the rest of the population who haven't been infected yet (more on that later). Because of this secondary result, there will be fewer people infected overall. And for both reasons there will be far fewer deaths.

For further research, google "flattening the curve."

View attachment 258969

You may be asking, "Well, why isn't the flu like that?" Strains of the flu that are in circulation today have been in circulation for a long time. For any given strain of the flu, it is likely that several people in your circle of friends and family have been infected with that particular strain of flu before; be it last year or maybe 5 or 10 years ago, or that they have been vaccinated. That means that you won't catch that particular strain of the flu from those particular people because those people still have some immunity to that particular strain. And since those are the people you interact with it means that it is less likely that you will catch that particular strain of the flu (i.e., less people that you could catch it from). That's what's called "herd immunity." (I should also mention that if you've been vaccinated with a flu shot for a particular strain of flu, then that's another way you can become immune without being infected yourself).

And that's one of the things that makes this Coronavirus different. While there are other coronaviruses in circulation, they are not like this strain. This strain is new, or "novel." Almost nobody is immune to it yet. Pretty much anybody can catch it from (or spread it to) anybody else. There's almost no immune people blocking the transmissions. At least not yet. We need more people in the population who have recovered from COVID-19 before that has an effect. (And eventually, of course, we'll have a vaccine within a year - year and a half from now.)

The other things that makes novel Coronavirus different is it is more deadly than the flu. Conservative estimates put it at about 10 times more deadly for those that contract it, compared to the flu.

About flattening the curves. How do you insert the formula for the maximum numbers of hospitals in a given place (say New York) and the number of patients (or positive cases) before it overwhelms the health system?

Here in my country. We have 240 positive cases now and our hospitals filled up to capacity already and lacking ventilators. If we can't contain it. We are projected to have 75,000 cases in a few months. I wonder if this is the Nightmare Scenario.

 

[kadiot]

About flattening the curves. How do you insert the formula for the maximum numbers of hospitals in a given place (say New York) and the number of patients (or positive cases) before it overwhelms the health system?

Here in my country. We have 240 positive cases now and our hospitals filled up to capacity already and lacking ventilators. If we can't contain it. We are projected to have 75,000 cases in a few months. I wonder if this is the Nightmare Scenario.

THE PHILIPPINE PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM. There are more private hospitals 60 % and only around 40 percent of hospitals are public (Department of Health, 2009). Healthcare in the Philippines suffers because the remaining 70 percent of health professionals work in the more expensive privately run sectors.

 

[russ_watters]

US finally ramped up testing: Table
13,000 tests on Monday, 22,000 tests on Tuesday, 27,000 tests on Wednesday.
Overall about 10% of the tests came back positive.

...but we still have a long way to go. We're just now opening drive-through testing centers, and the guidance so far is only first responders, those with already severe symptoms and other special risk/need people can get the tests. Mildly symptomatic people aren't getting tested.

 

[mfb]

It 's getting so bad. I don't know how we are going to manage this. Hospitals are already running out of PPE and having to make it DIY.

Washington state has 1400 cases with a population of 7.6 million (184/million). Italy has 41,000 cases with a population of 60 million (680/million).
The two places had the same per capita confirmed case rate when Italy had 11,000 confirmed cases: March 10-11. At that point Italy closed down nearly all non-essential activity. Washington has many similar rules now, some implemented a few days ago.

 

[chirhone]

THE PHILIPPINE PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM. There are more private hospitals 60 % and only around 40 percent of hospitals are public (Department of Health, 2009). Healthcare in the Philippines suffers because the remaining 70 percent of health professionals work in the more expensive privately run sectors. View attachment 258976

For comparisons. What are the numbers of hospitals, ICU beds, etc in New York, Singapore, etc?

 

[mfb]

For comparisons. What are the numbers of hospitals, ICU beds, etc in New York, Singapore, etc?

US overall: 3/1000 hospital beds (would be 330,000 at the same population), 0.3/1000 ICU beds (33,000). Factor ~4 and `~30 higher. Among OECD countries the US has a low number of hospital beds but a very high number of ICU beds.
Here is a table

 

[Vanadium 50]

it seems only the US have flu

Do you seriously think diseases respect national borders?