COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[gleem]

I am following this website for the Covid 19 tally at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
In the last few days the daily increase in new cases has risen to about 40% compared to 33% for the week before. US cases today are at 19,383 with 256 deaths and counting at 8 EDT.

Breaking News. My son who lives in Easton MD. on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay just sent me pictures of many military tanks arriving by rail. Easton does have a National Guard Armory. Does this mean anything?

 

[zoki85]

Mortality 256/19383 ≈ 1.5 %. Worse than Germans, better than Italians

 

[OmCheeto]

Wuhan did export the virus to all provinces of China.

Yup. Of the 31* locales with over 500 cases, Chinese provinces account for 1/3 of them(11).

However, various measures were taken throughout China to slow the spread of the infection. Unfortunately, insufficient measures were taken in other parts of the world. @OmCheeto had some posts earlier in this thread about cases in other parts of China. The death rate outside Hubei, where Wuhan is, is lower. But one of the interesting things @OmCheeto noticed was that Guangdong and Zhejiang seemed to have even lower death rates than other non-Hubei provinces. I think the death rate in Guangdong has risen since then, but Zhejiang is on track to have 1 death in about 1200 cases (but they still have 14 active cases, some of the more recent cases are imported from Italy)

Thanks for reminding me about this.
Almost every other day I notice something interesting, but I missed this trend:

Between February 18th and March 3rd, Chinese CFR's nearly flat-lined.

Current statistics ...

Sorry, but I didn't check out a single one of your links.
There's just too much maths and graphing to be done.

I suspect the wide "global" disparity in case fatality rates might be due to countries/locales being overwhelmed.

Not sure what's going on with Germany.
------

* 2020.03.17

 

[Mondayman]

One of the clubs here threw a quarantine themed party. Local businesses are struggling, but the strip club is still drawing customers. People have their priorities in order here.

 

[StoneTemplePython]

Why do you doubt China's statistics? The WHO visited China and were able to see their practices for themselves.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Here's one reason to be weary of data from China. An excerpt from the excellent issue of The Economist released yesterday:

THE FLOW of information is essential to curbing a pandemic. Yet on March 17th China took a dramatic step towards throttling it. Xi Jinping’s government ordered American journalists for the New York Times, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal to leave the country, in the biggest expulsion of Western correspondents from China since the Communist takeover in 1949. The world sorely needs objective reporting on the place with the longest experience of fighting covid-19. China, too, lacks objective reporting about the virus or any other sensitive topic.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/03/21/expelling-journalists-is-no-way-to-fight-a-pandemic

This of course could have happened for many reasons; it may not directly (or even indirectly) relate to the current batch of statistics. For example: opportunism for the party to extend its reach domestically, and better stage manage its portrayal internationally (perhaps with an eye toward after the pandemic).

Nevertheless, if you play 'poker' and see someone 'raise' like this, you should have a material amount of skepticism about their cards.

 

[zoki85]

I suspect the wide "global" disparity in case fatality rates might be due to countries/locales being overwhelmed.

Possible

 

[Tom.G]

re China throwing out reporters: (can't find original post, referenced in post 1580 by @StoneTemplePython)

re China throwing out reporters:
IIRC, at the time, it was reported that they were rather upset about the US President insisting on calling it the Chinese Flu or Chinese Virus. So they effectively said 'If you are going to be that obnoxious, F*** Off and get out.'

Just as many of use would do with a visitor to our home!
That doesn't make the lack of information any more pleasant, just understandable.

 

[wukunlin]

Here's one reason to be weary of data from China. An excerpt from the excellent issue of The Economist released yesterday:https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/03/21/expelling-journalists-is-no-way-to-fight-a-pandemic

This of course could have happened for many reasons; it may not directly (or even indirectly) relate to the current batch of statistics. For example: opportunism for the party to extend its reach domestically, and better stage manage its portrayal internationally (perhaps with an eye toward after the pandemic).

Nevertheless, if you play 'poker' and see someone 'raise' like this, you should have a material amount of skepticism about their cards.

I have lived in China for about 5 years. Looking at it from their point of view, foreign journalists, especially from USA, have a track record amplifying or twisting the negatives, even making things up out of thin air, and disregarding everything positive as propaganda. With this outbreak, nothing has changed, a whole bunch of journalists took this opportunity to make up fictional horror stories. I know they are made up because I am seeing things right here with my own eyes. In this case, the Chinese government finally had enough.

I will believe the data in China are real unless proved otherwise. Disregarding everything "because China," in my opinion, is simply prejudice.

 

[StoneTemplePython]

I will believe the data in China are real unless proved otherwise.

It may be that this issue is too politically dangerous for people residing in China to meaningfully participate on this thread.

Incidentally we know that Iran has been cooking the data for covid19 infections and deaths (I can cite exact issue of More or Less podcast if people want a source.) With China we don't really know either way. Like I said the biggest expulsion of foreign journalists since Mao's takeover is cause for some skepticism.

 

[wukunlin]

It may be that this issue is too politically dangerous for people residing in China to meaningfully participate on this thread.

This is the sort of exaggeration I'm talking about. The most immediate danger I have right now is from a PF mentor giving me warning for talking too much politics in PF

 

[Astronuc]

Breaking News. My son who lives in Easton MD. on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay just sent me pictures of many military tanks arriving by rail. Easton does have a National Guard Armory. Does this mean anything?

From The Hill - " Tens of thousands of National Guard troops could be activated in states across the country in the next several weeks to help deal with the Coronavirus pandemic, the head of the National Guard said Thursday. "
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/...s-of-thousands-of-national-guard-troops-could
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...used-to-assist-with-coronavirus-idUSKBN2163F3

Governor Cuomo has called out National Guard units in NY for support. I've heard units in Washington State have been activated.
March 18, 2020 - "LATHAM, N.Y. – A week into a mission to help contain the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, the New York National Guard had 900 personnel on duty from Long Island to New York City to the Albany area March 17."
https://www.nationalguard.mil/News/...k-national-guard-members-respond-to-covid-19/

Tanks are not part of the NG deployment. I've seen tanks moved by train, which saves using individual trucks and fuel. As far as I know, tanks are not deployed in the US, although there are bases where they are used for training.

 

[bhobba]

Lockdown kills the flu.

Of course, and more efficiently than Coronovirirus because on average it has a lower R0 of about 1.7, but varies with strain and communal setting. Coronovirus is the same in that it varies with communal setting, but is thought to on the average have an R0 of about 2.3 - higher than the flu. As mentioned it varies with communal setting - if you have lockdown you reinfect very few people, and the R0 goes well below 1, in which case it simply dies out. Those into math can solve the differential equation, see its exponential with an index depending on R0 and time. The higher the R0 the faster it explodes, below 1 it simply dies out. Thats the idea of all the measures (eg social distancing, no handshakes etc) we are taking - is to lower the R0 and reduce spread. Lockdown is the ultimate reduction - and will kill it off.

Thats all fine and dandy, you may even say fantastic, but here is the rub. Maintaining the lockdown, force will usually be needed - China was literally forced to weld people into their buildings on occasion. Managing the economic consequences - that can easily be in the trillions - you know what they say - a trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking real money. Plus it can never be 100% effective - people have to get food, see doctors if they fall and break bones etc etc. Then exactly what happens once the lockdown is over - will it simply come back again. In reality you can't keep it up for extended periods - its purpose is to buy time to get other measures in place such as distribution of the anti malarial drug that has proven to be effective against it and, fingers crossed, get a vaccine.

The better solution it to go hard and early like Singapore etc did - Italy is the extreme example of not doing that. Other countries are somewhat in the middle. I would say Australia is between the USA and Singapore, but IMHO even it was too slow. That is now being fixed - we had a spike in cases just after our boarders were closed, but fingers crossed over the last 3 days the increase in cases was declining - 50, 40, 37 in Queensland. But some nut case let 2700 people off a cruise ship in New South Wales:
https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/2700-passengers-let-off-infected-sydney-cruise-shi/3976794/

Thanks
Bill

 

[wukunlin]

The death rate outside Hubei, where Wuhan is, is lower. But one of the interesting things @OmCheeto noticed was that Guangdong and Zhejiang seemed to have even lower death rates than other non-Hubei provinces. I think the death rate in Guangdong has risen since then, but Zhejiang is on track to have 1 death in about 1200 cases (but they still have 14 active cases, some of the more recent cases are imported from Italy)

What I see in Guangdong and Zhejiang is that their cases are more concentrated, with Guandong almost all cases are in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, in fact all cities of Guangdong in the leaderboard are in the Pearl River Delta. These cities are relatively wealthy and have access better healthcare comparing most other Chinese cities. Almost all cases in Zhejiang are concentrated in Wenzhou, where they eventually implemented Hubei-style lockdown. With the rest of Zhejiang having few numbers of cases, the resources of the province (also a wealthy one at that) can be poured to helping Wenzhou.
With other provinces in China, those are either the poorer ones or cases are spread out too widely.

 

[bhobba]

It would seem like a fairly trivial thing for some like Elon Musk to put his vast resources towards this.

Well Bill Gates did donate $100 million and has been warning about it for years:


He is also good friends with Warren Buffet who basically has, like Bill Gates himself, pledged his entire fortune to the Bill Gates Foundation. Together they are the richest people on earth.

We did not listen, yet these people are now, basically pledging their entire fortune to save humanity. Some speak of the greedy rich - my eyes often roll back at that - yes there are some greedy rich - but certainly not all - not by a long shot.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Jarvis323]

Well Bill Gates did donate $100 million and has been warning about it for years:


He is also good friends with Warren Buffet who basically has, like Bill Gates himself, pledged his entire fortune to the Bill Gates Foundation. Together they are the richest people on earth.

We did not listen, yet these people are now, basically pledging their entire fortune to save humanity. Some speak of the greedy rich - my eyes often roll back at that - yes there are some greedy rich - but certainly not all - not by a long shot.

Thanks
Bill

That's true, but I just hope it translates to help solving a very time sensitive issue. One millions dollars is really nothing compared to the money the federal government has, but time after time we see them too little and too late. We need things immediately, so besides money it requires initiative, and innovation.

We should also thank Jack Ma. He has donated 1,000,000 masks and 500,000 test kits to the US, and similar amounts to Europe, Japan, Africa, Iran, and many other countries.

 

[atyy]

China has reported no new cases due to community spread for 2 days (new cases are arrivals from other countries). If this can be sustained for 14 days, they may gradually lift the lockdown in Wuhan, though many other measures will remain in place.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/wuhans-new-virus-cases-set-to-dry-up/news-story/2a9aa90cf0d8c22fe514f52b28d0dddb
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-could-cease-by-mid-late-march-idUSKBN21608U

Interestingly to me the article cites remarks by Li Lanjuan, director of China’s State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases. This seems to be in Zhejiang. https://www.zju.edu.cn/english/2018/0520/c19974a812273/page.htm

Is that a contributor to why Zhejiang has so far managed to keep their death rate low (currently 1 death in about 1200 cases, with 14 active cases)?

 

[phinds]

One millions dollars is really nothing compared to the money the federal government has

Yes, even $100 million, which is what it was, is far less than the government is likely to contribute, but it's still a lot of money.

 

[bhobba]

Flu is widespread only in cold places. Wuhan, UK? But I think Iran is always summer? So COVID-19 explosion in poplution indeed knows no climate?

In north Queensland its tropical and they get the flu just as bad as anywhere else in Australia - even in summer. I got flu in the summer down in Canberra, which can be cold, but at that time was getting 40 degree Celsius days. Flu is not a respecter of hot or cold. During cold weather you tend, in more temperate climates, to be more indoors and closer together, so tropical places do not have it as bad - but people visiting from where its cold imports it and you still get a spike during winter.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

I haven't been in one of my offices for over two weeks. Today, my boss called me to say that there was a confirmed case in the building (one floor below ours) and that I might need to come into take care of a code problem. Really.

IT managers, don't you love em. I was told by a friend their place of employ had the view managing was the same regardless of what is managed and in put a non IT person to manage them. They left on stress leave after 3 months because they could not understand why the tech people kept on saying you can't do that.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Regarding the deployment of the National Guard:

Though the governor has activated the Illinois National Guard to help combat the virus, the service members will have no role in enforcing any potential order. Pritzker said irresponsible social media users, as well as Russian and Chinese meddlers, spread unfounded rumors about the Guard being deployed to enforce a quarantine.

In reality, 60 service members will be used to establish drive-up testing sites, help with food delivery to disadvantaged families impacted by school closures and possibly prepare closed hospitals to reopen. The vast majority of currently activated troops are health care professionals — doctors, nurses, medical technicians — who would not be tapped for a law-enforcement assignment.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200320-teedakbfw5gvdgmnaxlel54hau-story.html

See also https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200320-fs6neznkx5hindebnwmwsjlyc4-story.html

As trains transporting military tanks and Humvees traveled through the Chicago area the past few days, rumors took root on social media that the Illinois National Guard would play a role in imposing the directive.

The Guard quickly shot it down.

“Those (tanks and Humvees) are not ours,” said Lt. Col. Bradford Leighton of the Illinois National Guard. “The military moves equipment all the time by train. If we were to move, we wouldn’t be doing it by train. We would drive.”

 

[bhobba]

There's still hope. ITALY must radically reinforce confinement in all areas, they haven't done this everywhere! Incredible!

Yes. They bought Chinese experts in who told them exactly that - your containment measures are FAR too lax.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Not just youth, see the Washington Post article (March 19) quoted here.

Same in Australia.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Unfortunately, insufficient measures were taken in other parts of the world.

Exactly. Here in Aus we had our first case in January on the Gold Coast with a Chinese tourist. If we took action then we would be in much better shape now. But Australia was largely spared from SARS and didn't take it seriously enough. Singapore did.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

One of the clubs here threw a quarantine themed party. Local businesses are struggling, but the strip club is still drawing customers. People have their priorities in order here.

I do not know if here in Brisbane we are taking it more or less seriously - the strip clubs are basically not attracting any patronage, but we are going to the beach and ignoring social distancing in droves. Beats me.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

I do not know if here in Brisbane we are taking it more or less seriously - the strip clubs are basically not attracting any patronage, but we are going to the beach and ignoring social distancing in droves. Beats me.

Standing and swimming 2m apart at the beach?

 

[bhobba]

Looking at it from their point of view,

I know what you mean. Here in Aus we had the Chinese ambassador on our Q&A program. He was treated terribly IMHO. He tried to explain what was going on in China, and for people to please understand China is in transition to become more like the west, but during that transition it will not be the same as the west, and gave reasonable examples. But people did not understand. They showed footage of Chinese being forcibly removed from their homes. Not good to see, not good at all. But as he correctly said not all Chinese understand the situation and force, regrettably, needed to be used sometimes. Again the audience did not seem convinced. Regarding calling it the Whuhan virus, yes I can understand China not being 'happy' with that, but it's common in the west with names like Spanish flu etc. It's the sort of cultural thing that's going to be hard to avoid. There are legitimate issues with some things China does, but they are best solved by diplomacy, not dismissing the reasonable answers to many, from our viewpoint, things that look 'bad'.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

Exactly. Here in Aus we had our first case in January on the Gold Coast with a Chinese tourist. If we took action then we would be in much better shape now. But Australia was largely spared from SARS and didn't take it seriously enough. Singapore did.

Australia's numbers look fairly proportional to Singapore's, maybe better in fact at the moment.
Singapore: 5.6 milliion population, 385 confirmed cases, 2 deaths
Australia: 24.6 million population, 1051 confirmed cases, 7 deaths

Some of Australia's measures are stricter than Singapore's, eg. Australia has banned events with more than 100 people and enforced at least 2m separation at events with less than 100 people, whereas in Singapore the corresponding limits are laxer with 250 people and 1m separation.

But you are right that things seem overall ok in Singapore at the moment. Cases still seem to be within the capability of contact tracing; there seem to be enough hospital and ICU beds; schools, restaurants and shopping centers are all still open (with social distancing precautions in place).

Anyway, no time to be off one's guard.

 

[OCR]

The Tribune may have a paywall.

Yeah, it did . . . but not anymore.

.

 

[bhobba]

Standing and swimming 2m apart at the beach?

Both. You are well advised here in Aus to only swim between the flags which are patrolled by Life Guards - the world famous Iron Men (or Women). It's considered an honour - an ex prime minister was one even when he was prime minister - he was also an active volunteer fire fighter. Simple solution - augment the life guards with some police to ensure social distancing. I notice some countries are introducing laws saying police now have the power to do all sort of things. Here in Aus you must obey police at all times. There is a famous example of a foreign documentary maker who was asked (nicely of course) by the police not to photograph a high profile mosque because they may take offence and threaten the peace of the area. She obeyed, but wondered about its legality. It was in fact illegal for police to order that, and they could have been reported, taken to court, all sorts of legal remedies were open to the person. But obey the policeman they had to, or be arrested. Of course they ask nicely first, explain why, and only use the 'big stick' if that does not work. So maybe the policeman could have evaded any legal implications because he simply asked - who knows with the law. Me - if a policeman asks I invariably say - of course - any other way I can help you officer?

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Cases still seem to be within the capability of contact tracing; there seem to be enough hospital and ICU beds; schools, restaurants and shopping centers are all still open (with social distancing precautions in place). Anyway, no time to be off one's guard.

Yes - but they have introduced a new rule - anyone over 60 must self isolate as much as possible so now I do not go out to Sizzlers every day - I get a salad from Subway and something from a local take-away/eat-in cafe. That cafe does not have as good food as Sizzlers - it's hamburgers, fish an chips etc. But they look after older people well. You go in and order, then they bring it out to your car - nearly, but not quite drive through.

I forgot Singapores smaller population - you are right - at the moment they look about the same, but we have recently introduced some pretty tough measures. Testing is still showing the vast majority of cases is from contact with people from overseas - very little, at the moment, local transmission. I wouldn't like to be in the shoes of that twerp that let 2700 people off a ship before they got the results of Covid tests back - I still can't get my mind around that one.

Thanks
Bill

 

[OCR]

Bill. . .

They bought Chinese experts. . .

Did you forget to type an 'r' right after the 'b' ? .
.

 

[Borg]

IT managers, don't you love em. I was told by a friend their place of employ had the view managing was the same regardless of what is managed and in put a non IT person to manage them. They left on stress leave after 3 months because they could not understand why the tech people kept on saying you can't do that.

Thanks
Bill

The problem that my boss called about turned out to be caused by (and fixable by) another group. People who were already in the office were able to fix the problem. This is the third time this month where my manager has called me to tell me that I will need to come into fix a problem. Each time, I've been able to solve it with a few emails or phone calls.

 

[mfb]

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19
The usual caveat: Very fresh, not peer-reviewed yet.

We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.

 

[gleem]

NYC and LA will no longer test for possible cases but only use tests for determining the appropriate course of treatment of symptomatic persons. This is due to lack of PPE and tests. According to CNN. Is this a good strategy?

 

[Astronuc]

A second person has died in Benton County from COVID-19, the Benton Franklin Health District said Friday.

It brings the number of confirmed cases in Benton County to three, including the two deaths. Franklin County has two cases.

The latest death reported was a man in his 80s who died last week, but did not have a positive test result.

I cannot tell if the health department simply assumed COVID-19, or if they tested posthumously.

Read more here: https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241379711.html (may not be available to everyone)

A couple had traveled to the Redmond, Wash, area March 2-4 and she was not feeling well when they returned (implies rapid onset, < 4 days). As far as it is known, the woman was healthy before visiting Redmond WA, in King County, where there is a large number of positive cases. Woman went to hospital on March 12 and died March 14/15. Husband died of a heart attach on March 14.

The Tri-Cities are Richland, Kennewick and Pasco in SE Washington State, about 200 miles (320 km) from Seattle. The father of a colleague lives in Richland.