COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[wukunlin]

That paper is syrupy-sweet, and does not read like a 3rd-party assessment (and includes Chinese writers).

What I find incredible is the idea that China, the source of the outbreak, which punished people responding to the outbreak with prison, could export the outbreak worldwide and then be pretty much the only country on Earth to successfully contain the outbreak to one geographic region. It doesn't seem like it should be possible, especially since:

I stand corrected! The Chinese are more mobile than I thought. So how is it possible they successfully contained the virus?

I just don't believe it is possible that they did.

Somethings really have to be seen to be believed. Media all over the world talked about the initial censoring like that's everything China did. When they did decide to recognize the outbreak, some local governments took extreme measures. Villages had trenches and roadblocks stopping people going in and out. Those images were shown as role models all over China. That's probably the difference between China and the rest of the world.

Where I live, there is a loud speaker on the main road basically saying "call the cops if you know anyone who just returned from Hubei and have not reported to the local station, as well as anyone with symptoms who has refused to go to hospital."
And if you don't have a face mask, you will not be allowed to go on any public transport or supermarkets.

 

[atyy]

He is one of several 'patient zeros', and each should be traced, but as time goes on, that becomes less likely. Cases in NY were from started with people returning from Europe and Middle East. California has cases independent of those in Washington, and at least 24 patient-zeroes.

Yeah, that's the problem. China having exported cases, is now worried about importing them and causing new outbreaks there, after seeming to bring their own original outbreaks under control.

Same here in Singapore, about 80% of new cases are Singapore citizens and long-term residents returning from places like the UK and the USA. Here it still seems within the capability of contact tracing, and we are still isolating every case in a hospital (ie. mild cases do not self-isolate at home). However, the government has had to partner with private hospitals to isolate the mild cases there.

 

[atyy]

What I find incredible is the idea that China, the source of the outbreak, which punished people responding to the outbreak with prison, could export the outbreak worldwide and then be pretty much the only country on Earth to successfully contain the outbreak to one geographic region. It doesn't seem like it should be possible, especially since:

Well, hopefully that will not be true. I think the Coronavirus is still largely in the north in Italy, and there is still hope that overall Italy will be able to bring things under control. Also, China is a big country. Hubei, where Wuhan is, has a population of 59 million, Italy has a population of 60 million. So an analogy is that China is like Europe, with each province of China being a European country.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099375/coronavirus-cases-by-region-in-italy/
https://observablehq.com/@jashkenas/italy-coronavirus-daily-cases-map-covid-19

Although there is lots of travel in China at Chinese New Year (Jan 25 + 15 days), some measures were taken before Chinese New Year, including the lockdown of many parts of Hubei (Jan 23). Measures continued to increase after the start of Chinese New Year. Also, delays for returning to work and school after Chinese New Year were implemented.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c947a8-3d45-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...s-far-from-virus-epicentre-implement-12388714

 

[mfb]

I just don't believe it is possible that they did.

We would know if China wouldn't have contained it. It's easy to "forget" half of the cases, maybe even a larger fraction, but not even China can hide a country-wide collapse of the healthcare system, something that would have occurred a over month ago if China wouldn't have contained the spread (at least limited it to a manageable number of cases). They took measures no one else did to limit the spread.

Florida has declared child-care-facilities as a critical infrastructure that must be allowed to stay open, because people with essential jobs need child care.

But in the past 48 hours more than 100 child care centers in central Florida closed because they have no customers. Parents don't want their children to go there.

I worry about employees of critical infrastructure staying away from work because they don't want to put their families at risk.

Child care centers only for children of critical employees? That way they can keep working and the infection risk for the children is reduced, too.Italy:

 

[peanut]

Another good news. Still a long way but it seems like Italy's actions are finally showing some effect. For the 2nd consecutive day, new Covid-19 Italia cases are decreasing. Today's death toll (601), yesterday (651), day before (793). Physical distancing is working.

 

[anorlunda]

Department of good intentions gone wrong.

We just went out to try to buy food at the 7AM seniors-only-hour at the local supermarket. The parking lot was more full than during the Christmas rush. A mob of seniors at the door were packed so close, they nearly touched. We aborted.

Clearly the intention of a seniors-only hour backfired.

If the local population has N% seniors, then seniors-only hours less than N% of total hours accomplishes social concentration rather than social distancing. In this area, about 40% of the people are seniors. Nearby, in The Villages it is 75% seniors. But the supermarket devoted only 2.5% of the food shopping hours for seniors-only.

Rules need to allow local adjustments.

 

[Borg]

Looks like the stores and the seniors both need to get some brain cells.

There is a Trader Joe's near our house that my wife and I plan to go to early tomorrow. We've both agreed that if there is a line of more than a few people, we will also abort.

 

[Borg]

My offices finally locked down and went to bare-bones essential personnel only. I don't think my boss will be telling me that I need to come in anymore like she tried (and failed) 3 times this month already.

 

[peanut]

What does it mean when a report said Covid-19 viral RNA was identified or detectable for at least 17 days?

What's the difference between detectable and survival?

 

[atyy]

What does it mean when a report said Covid-19 viral RNA was identified or detectable for at least 17 days?

What's the difference between detectable and survival?

View attachment 259242

RNA is only part of the virus. If the RNA is present without the other parts of the virus, no infection is possible.

 

[peanut]

RNA is only part of the virus. If the RNA is present without the other parts of the virus, no infection is possible.

Thanks, atyy!

If that is the case, it is wrong to say Covid-19 survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left.

 

[jbriggs444]

Thanks, atyy!

If that is the case, it is wrong to say Covid-19 survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left.

Yes, it would be wrong. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. The disease is COVID-19.

 

[anorlunda]

Thanks, atyy!

If that is the case, it is wrong to say Covid-19 survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left.

Not the right way to say it. The passage you quoted in #1689 does not prove or disprove that transmission could occur.

 

[peanut]

Not the right way to say it. The passage you quoted in #1689 does not prove or disprove that transmission could occur.

Is it safe to say that detecting DNA is not the same as detecting viable virus i.e. capable of infection?

 

[atyy]

Is it safe to say that detecting DNA is not the same as detecting viable virus i.e. capable of infection?

RNA not DNA. But yes, detecting RNA is not the same as detecting viable virus. If you don't detect RNA (assuming the test is properly done), then you know it is not infectious. But you could detect RNA without infectious virus being present.

To confirm infectiousness (not sure what the right word is), you would attempt to use the sample to infect cells (eg. cell culture). I'm not sure off the top of my head whether protocol for infectiousness have been developed yet for SARS-CoV-2.

Edit: In the very old days, you would do things which I think cannot be done any longer (someone please correct me on this), eg. I believe in the 1970s they tested the effectiveness of sterilization procedures by seeing if the sample after the attempted sterilization could infect people (!) https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcimb.2020.00032/full

 

[peanut]

The virus is SARS-CoV-2. The disease is COVID-19.

I thought they were the same. Thanks, jbriggs. I am learning.

 

[anorlunda]

Is it safe to say that detecting DNA is not the same as detecting viable virus i.e. capable of infection?

Yes, but it does not disprove that a viable virus may exist.

If the result had been negative rather than positive, then that would prove that no virus existed. (At least to the extent that we trust the test.)

 

[atyy]

But I have to say, I always thought RNA is quite fragile. DNA is robust, which is why we can still analyze DNA from long long ago (like Jurassic Park - kidding, of course). @chemisttree @Ygggdrasil ?

 

[peanut]

Yes, but it does not disprove that a viable virus may exist.

Okay.

If the result had been negative rather than positive, then that would prove that no virus existed. (At least to the extent that we trust the test.)

Interesting. Sounds like they are never alive because they’re sort of in the middle of being alive (positive) and being dead (negative).

 

[atyy]

 

[Astronuc]

But I have to say, I always thought RNA is quite fragile. DNA is robust, which is why we can still analyze DNA from long long ago (like Jurassic Park - kidding, of course). @chemisttree @Ygggdrasil ?

There are four main groups of organic molecules that are preserved in the fossil record, and these include the following: nucleic acids (which include deoxyribonucleic acids (DNA) and ribonucleic acids (RNA)), proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids.

https://ucmp.berkeley.edu/paleo/fossilsarchive/molecu.html

 

[anorlunda]

Interesting. Sounds like they are never alive because they’re sort of in the middle of being alive (positive) and being dead (negative).

Nothing so mysterious. The result may be negative because there never was a virus at that location.

 

[chemisttree]

Is it safe to say that detecting DNA is not the same as detecting viable virus i.e. capable of infection?

I would say so, yes. Edit: By that I mean yes, detecting RNA is not the same as detecting viable virus.

 

[atyy]

https://ucmp.berkeley.edu/paleo/fossilsarchive/molecu.html

Really? Is that correct? There is RNA preserved in the fossil record? I think that'd be amazing. In principle, yes - but in practice, sure no?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I realize we might not have good answers to all these questions right now. But a lot of people seem to be talking as though we do--for example, when people talk as though there will definitely be a second outbreak of COVID-19 if we let up on social distancing at some point in the future. So I'm wondering if anyone has actually seen hard evidence on these points.

Yes, there are documented cases that letting up on social distancing measures too early can lead to subsequent spikes in the disease. For example, from the 1918 flu pandemic:

(image source)

Even with successful measures to control the disease through stay at home orders, modeling from Imperial College London predicts that we will see periodic outbreaks of the disease into the future (see my post# 1322 for a discussion of this issue).

 

[PeterDonis]

from the 1918 flu pandemic

Yes, the second wave of that pandemic is the one I've seen referred to. But there were a lot of other variables that were also different then.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

But I have to say, I always thought RNA is quite fragile. DNA is robust, which is why we can still analyze DNA from long long ago (like Jurassic Park - kidding, of course). @chemisttree @Ygggdrasil ?

RNA is quite fragile and subject to degradation, however, the RT-qPCR method to test for viral RNA only looks for very small fragments of RNA (~80-200 nucleotides vs the 30,000 nt long viral genome) and RT-qPCR is very sensitive (CDC quotes the sensitivity of its test as being able to detect around one molecule of RNA per 1µL). Therefore, the test can detect fragments of RNA at very low concentration (which would not be infectious).

 

[peanut]

Yes, there are documented cases that letting up on social distancing measures too early can lead to subsequent spikes in the disease. For example, from the 1918 flu pandemic:
View attachment 259244
(image source)

Even with successful measures to control the disease through stay at home orders, modeling from Imperial College London predicts that we will see periodic outbreaks of the disease into the future (see my post# 1322 for a discussion of this issue).

I think it's the opposite. During the 1918 influenza pandemic, Philadelphia waited over 2 weeks after its first reported case to implement #socialdistancing. By this point, the city’s healthcare system was already overwhelmed. Philadelphia’s epidemiccurve — showing the number of deaths — had a tall peak.

In contrast, St. Louis implemented social distancing just 2 days after its first reported case. The city closed schools, playgrounds, libraries, courtrooms, even churches. Work shifts were staggered and streetcar ridership was strictly limited. St. Louis successfully flattened the curve.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Yes, the second wave of that pandemic is the one I've seen referred to. But there were a lot of other variables that were also different then.

Sure, which is why I also linked to the recent Imperial College London report that deals with the current outbreak: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I think it's the opposite. During the 1918 influenza pandemic, Philadelphia waited over 2 weeks after its first reported case to implement #socialdistancing. By this point, the city’s healthcare system was already overwhelmed. Philadelphia’s epidemiccurve — showing the number of deaths — had a tall peak.

In contrast, St. Louis implemented social distancing just 2 days after its first reported case. The city closed schools, playgrounds, libraries, courtrooms, even churches. Work shifts were staggered and streetcar ridership was strictly limited.

View attachment 259245

I agree that social distancing measures are an effective way of dealing with disease outbreaks and that instituting these measures early can have great benefits (I cited the same study in my post #1379). My point was that ending social distancing measures too early (as some US government officials are considering) can result in the return of the outbreak and wipe out any gains from the initial social distancing efforts.

 

[peanut]

I agree that social distancing measures are an effective way of dealing with disease outbreaks and that instituting these measures early can have great benefits (I cited the same study in my post #1379). My point was that ending social distancing measures too early (as some US government officials are considering) can result in the return of the outbreak and wipe out any gains from the initial social distancing efforts.

Sorry I misread your post. Yes, that's probably the reason why lockdown option is highly unlikely in Singapore. With the virus spreading in so many countries, it could also still be re-imported if they ended lockdown / physical distancing measures too early.

 

[PeterDonis]

which is why I also linked to the recent Imperial College London report that deals with the current outbreak

Yes, and I see that they predict that case numbers will quickly rebound if social distancing and other suppression interventions are relaxed, but that's because they assume that asymptomatic people are contagious from 4.6 days after infection onward--as far as I can tell, indefinitely. I see no evidence in the paper to back up that assumption; it is simply stated with no supporting argument. That does not seem to me to be a realistic assumption: if a person remains asymptomatic after being infected, that means their immune system is successfully fighting the virus, so they should not remain contagious indefinitely.

 

[Wrichik Basu]

A bit late into this thread, but here is the latest update from my country: Lockdown for the whole nation from tomorrow 0:00hrs to 14th April 23:59hrs IST. Only essential services shall be availabe. Some states are seeing a total curfew.

Almost all educational institutions have been closed by last week.

 

[peanut]

Yes, and I see that they predict that case numbers will quickly rebound if social distancing and other suppression interventions are relaxed, but that's because they assume that asymptomatic people are contagious from 4.6 days after infection onward--as far as I can tell, indefinitely. I see no evidence in the paper to back up that assumption; it is simply stated with no supporting argument. That does not seem to me to be a realistic assumption: if a person remains asymptomatic after being infected, that means their immune system is successfully fighting the virus, so they should not remain contagious indefinitely.

On asymptomatic carriers. More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive for Covid-19 without immediate symptoms by the end of February and were quarantined.

It is still unclear what role asymptomatic transmission is playing in the global pandemic.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...VvQmbLnoohfn6UcFKxeDjvkLyQcNRQdH3s779zwhhO_YU

 

[peanut]

King's College London is launching a new app that allows users to track Coronavirus symptoms, which it hopes will slow the outbreak.

About 5,000 twins and their families from across the UK have been recruited to test the app, which will help researchers identify:

How fast the virus is spreading in different areas
High-risk areas in the country
Which symptoms correspond to the coronavirus
Why some people are more at risk

Why twins? They "enable researchers to separate the effects of genes from environmental factors such as diet, lifestyle, previous illnesses and infections, and the microbes within the gut (microbiome)" the school said in a news release.

The twins will record information about their health on a daily basis, including temperature, tiredness and symptoms such as coughing, breathing problems or headaches. Any participants showing signs of Covid-19 will be sent a home testing kit.

The app will be available to the public without the home testing component, and to health professionals who want to contribute to the research.

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/new-symp...v-3Eul8eLUKu87KH0zHM2NxIEzHrthLSmJM2Vjhm6CSSg