COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[peanut]

Very interesting to listen to so many experiences all around the world and divine how some have fairly low mortality rates while others have tragic runaway death rates which continue in an upward trajectory...

The SUCCESS variables seem to cluster around the following:

1. Very early and very wide testing with as many people over as many geographies;
2. Excellent health care system where there is more than adequate inventory of critical medical equipment like ventilators;
3. Strict implementation of lockdown directives and appropriate sanctions thereof without any exceptions;

Obviously, the opposite of all the above spells FAILURE or increased infections and death.

 

[mfb]

A visualization of US causes of death
COVID-19 overtook "influenza and pneumonia" on Tuesday, with the current trend it will overtake accidents during the weekend. These numbers are averages, of course. Stay at home orders should reduce the number of accidents at the moment.

 

[BillTre]

Nice NY Times interactive graphic of corona virus spread from Wuhan to the world here.

 

[DennisN]

Twinkies and roaches will fight it out after WW3. I'm betting on the Twinkies ;).

I simulated a nuclear war in Excel and this was what I got :

 

[anorlunda]

I simulated a nuclear war in Excel and this was what I got :

Run it again including Tardigrades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tardigrade

 

[bhobba]

Fingers crossed, here in Aus things look like its coming under control, as the rate of increase looks like its slowing. Still a lot of immunologists think we should test even more even though we are testing more than anyone - death rate now .4% instead of .33% because unfortunately we have had a few more deaths. Better testing kits using a drop of blood (antibody test) are becoming available that takes much less time - 15 minutes:
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/health/coronavirus-states-push-for-expansion-of-virus-testing/news-story/2a4e9d13ad60710b1b88f022255343ce

Some idiots are still ignoring the social distancing etc, even lying about where they will be while quarantined, but there is a start of police cracking down on it, though no arrests yet. I think overall Australia is not doing too bad - but could and should be better.

Thanks
Bill

 

[peanut]

So some people want schools to reopen because kids are "minimally affected" by coronavirus.

In Singapore model, children remain in school because they might just loiter around but the school system here might be very different than yours and most teachers here are competent to ensure cleanliness, safety and nutrition. They seem to control the transmission but still on high alert.

In the Taiwan model, the outbreak measures started during early January so there was Winter break in schools but even if the outbreak seemed to have been contained, they even delayed the start of new semester this year by two weeks and if anyone comes out positive again, the whole class is quarantined for two weeks, that school is closed and immediately isolated.

In Vietnam, the country seemed to have controlled it much better than Singapore and very much the same with Taiwan and take note until now, schools remain closed. People are back at work with social distancing measures. This is the more appropriate model in most settings.

Over-all, from these experiences, and as shown by Taiwan and Vietnam, the prudent thing to do is to keep all schools closed for at least 3 months.

 

[BillTre]

Here is a FiveThrityEight survey of experts estimates of what the pandemic will be looking like in the future.
Large differences in estimates and large uncertainties.

Several other graphs.

 

[anorlunda]

Here is a FiveThrityEight survey of experts estimates of what the pandemic will be looking like in the future.

In the future? The article you link says the question was "What is the smallest, most likely and largest number of total cases that The COVID Tracking Project will report on March 29?"

Some estimates look 2 days into the future, some 2 months, some look years into the future, some US only, some global. Not surprisingly, the numbers are different. It is not very helpful to give estimates without giving the parameters of the estimate.

I prefer to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Refer back to #821 in this thread.

Here's another estimate from another group:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...177e0a-63b4-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

Another forecast, developed by former CDC director Tom Frieden at the nonprofit organization Resolve to Save Lives, found that deaths in the United States could range widely, depending on what percentage of the population becomes infected and how lethal the disease proves to be. Frieden, who oversaw the U.S. response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the 2014 Ebola epidemic and the 2016 Zika epidemic, says that in a worst-case scenario, but one that is not implausible, half the U.S. population would become infected and more than 1 million people would die.

His team put together a simple table that looks at various scenarios using case fatality ratios ranging from .1, similar to seasonal flu, to .5, a moderately severe pandemic, and 1.0, a severe one. The infection rate ranged from 0.1 percent of the population to 50 percent. That put the range of deaths at 327 (best case) to 1,635,000 (worst case). The deaths would not necessarily happen over a month or a year, but could occur over two or three years, he said.
Another forecast, developed by former CDC director Tom Frieden at the nonprofit organization Resolve to Save Lives, found that deaths in the United States could range widely, depending on what percentage of the population becomes infected and how lethal the disease proves to be. Frieden, who oversaw the U.S. response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the 2014 Ebola epidemic and the 2016 Zika epidemic, says that in a worst-case scenario, but one that is not implausible, half the U.S. population would become infected and more than 1 million people would die.

His team put together a simple table that looks at various scenarios using case fatality ratios ranging from .1, similar to seasonal flu, to .5, a moderately severe pandemic, and 1.0, a severe one. The infection rate ranged from 0.1 percent of the population to 50 percent. That put the range of deaths at 327 (best case) to 1,635,000 (worst case). The deaths would not necessarily happen over a month or a year, but could occur over two or three years, he said.

 

[OmCheeto]

In the future? The article you link says the question was "What is the smallest, most likely and largest number of total cases that The COVID Tracking Project will report on March 29?"

Some estimates look 2 days into the future, some 2 months, some look years into the future, some US only, some global. Not surprisingly, the numbers are different. It is not very helpful to give estimates without giving the parameters of the estimate.

I prefer to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Refer back to #821 in this thread.

That article is VERY difficult interpret if one just skims through it.
It's only redeeming value was that one number in one of the survey questions matched mine quite well:

How many total COVID-19 infections were actually in the U.S. on March 23?
The expert consensus is that the real number of cases was ... 362,000 being the most likely number.

{bolding mine}

 

[Keith_McClary]

a Michigan doctor, Jeffrey VanWingen, goes through, step-by-step, how to process your groceries when you get them home to give you your best chance of not bringing COVID-19 into your house.

Via boingboing .

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

The US is now #1
https://www.bing.com/covid

 

[PeterDonis]

The US is now #1

New York all by itself would rate #6.

 

[OmCheeto]

The US is now #1
https://www.bing.com/covid

Oh dear.
You've triggered a flashback to my youth:


circa 1984

 

[Astronuc]

The US is now #1
https://www.bing.com/covid

The numbers (2617 positive, 58 deaths) for California are two days old. CDPH reports " As of March 25, 2020, 2 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time, there are a total of 3,006 positive cases and 65 deaths in California (including one non-California resident)." Today's numbers will be greater (Coronavirus Dashboard has 3910 cases, 80 deaths). Washington state will reported (see below), and those numbers should be greater. It would appear that some states which had reported low numbers and now seeing an acceleration in positive cases through more people becoming ill and more testing.

Washington State reported March 26, 2020 at 3:45 p.m.
Rate of cases was slowing, but today they got a bump today to 3207 with 627 new cases. Deaths increased to 147.

 

[bhobba]

So some people want schools to reopen because kids are "minimally affected" by coronavirus.

Here in Aus we have come up with a compromise position. Schools remain open so critical health care workers can still go to work - it is estimated at least 1/3 of health care workers would not be able to work if they were closed. But we are having a student free week next week so schools can gear up to deliver classes online. Some schools do it already:
https://www.acc.edu.au/marsdenpark/online/index.html

Then it will be the parents choice if to send them or not.

I said before virtually all commentators thought we would be in stage 4 lockdown by now, but we are still at late stage 2 or start of stage 3 because it is thought the increase we are seeing now is the backlog of people returning to Australia. TV footage showed, unfortunately, its still 'chaos' at airports - but reducing. Which is good because that chaos included almost total disregard for social distancing etc.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

CSIRO in Aus latest information:
https://www.acc.edu.au/marsdenpark/online/index.html

Thanks
Bill

 

[peanut]

Yes. USA overtook China's lead in infection numbers. NY alone comprises half of the total. Looks like every major Western country will overtake China.

 

[peanut]

Here in Aus we have come up with a compromise position. Schools remain open so critical health care workers can still go to work - it is estimated at least 1/3 of health care workers would not be able to work if they were closed. But we are having a student free week next week so schools can gear up to deliver classes online. Some schools do it already:
https://www.acc.edu.au/marsdenpark/online/index.html

Then it will be the parents choice if to send them or not.

I said before virtually all commentators thought we would be in stage 4 lockdown by now, but we are still at late stage 2 or start of stage 3 because it is thought the increase we are seeing now is the backlog of people returning to Australia. TV footage showed, unfortunately, its still 'chaos' at airports - but reducing. Which is good because that chaos included almost total disregard for social distancing etc.

Thanks
Bill

Unfortunately, in the third world countries, where everyone is crammed into a tight space, some people seriously think the kids won't bring the virus home, or if they get it from their home, bring it to school? And who brings a lot of kids to school? Adults! Plus the teachers. And you know what? Grandma and grandpa live with these kids! If they contract the virus it may kill them. And I think the reason why testing of kids isn't done much: (two words) nasopharyngeal swab. Try sticking that baby down your 7-year old's nose. No. Schools should stay closed. .

 

[mfb]

Iceland tested 3% of their whole population (about 10,000 tests) and found that about half of the 218 positive cases don't show symptoms. This looks similar to South Korea.
The article doesn't say if they watched these patients for some time, or if this was at the time they tested positive, however.

Italy found more cases in the most recent update, largely driven by an increase in Lombardy. They are now reaching the total case numbers China reports.

 

[chemisttree]

How does a camera looking at a highway, where people are in their cars and not able to infect anyone else, have any relevance to whether or not NYC is in lockdown?

Because people get into and out of their cars. Infected people drive around and then get out of their car. Then they transmit at distant locations. Infected people drive into the city and get out of their cars and spread their infection. Are you really asking about how cars work?
If those drivers would self quarantine in their cars for 14 days it wouldn’t be a problem. I see lots of personal cars and few trucks. No checkpoints at all. There is traffic even at midnight across at the Lincoln Tunnel.
https://webcams.nyctmc.org/google_popup.php?cid=319

George Washington bridge facing west into Jersey. Really busy, even at 12:30am!

https://webcams.nyctmc.org/google_popup.php?cid=840

 

[PeterDonis]

Are you really asking about how cars work?

There's no need for attitude. This situation is tough enough for everyone without gratuitous snark.

If those drivers would self quarantine in their cars for 14 days it wouldn’t be a problem.

Plenty of essential workers have to drive to and from work, every day, even during lockdown, and many of them work all hours. In a city with the population of NYC there will be a lot of them. That's why you can't draw any reliable inferences just from cars on the highway. You need to look, as I said, at places like Times Square, where on a normal day (or night, for that matter), there would be lots of people crowding around. A few days ago I saw a camera view of Times Square in midafternoon and it was deserted. That tells me there are indeed a lot of people in NYC who are practicing social distancing.

 

[Rive]

Iceland ... half of the 218 positive cases don't show symptoms. This looks similar to South Korea.

Also, like Vo Euganeo

Awful high ratio. Of course, it is good that the mortality is actually 'just' around 1%, but with that many asymptomatic it will be a nightmare to stop this. Requires much more severe actions.

 

[chemisttree]

There's no need for attitude. This situation is tough enough for everyone without gratuitous snark.

Oh, my mistake. So you really think it’s OK for this level of travel as long as they are essential workers. You think no inferences are to be made seeing people in cars freely driving around the city along routes people use to get into and out of the city?

Plenty of essential workers have to drive to and from work, every day, even during lockdown, and many of them work all hours. In a city with the population of NYC there will be a lot of them. That's why you can't draw any reliable inferences just from cars on the highway. You need to look, as I said, at places like Times Square, where on a normal day (or night, for that matter), there would be lots of people crowding around. A few days ago I saw a camera view of Times Square in midafternoon and it was deserted. That tells me there are indeed a lot of people in NYC who are practicing social distancing.

No, they don’t have to. They’re allowed to. “Reliable inferences” will be drawn in 10 days as this disaster unfolds in both NYC and Jersey.
Before this is over, the Mayor will close the bridges and tunnels into and out of the city except for trucks bringing in supplies and those “essential” workers will be staying in the city in the now mostly empty hotels. That’s what a real lockdown is going to look like. What they are doing now is a joke.

 

[PeterDonis]

So you really think it’s OK for this level of travel as long as they are essential workers.

I don't know the specific circumstances that apply to all the cars shown in those webcams, so I can't possibly say. And neither can you.

Before this is over, the Mayor will close the bridges and tunnels into and out of the city except for trucks bringing in supplies and those “essential” workers will be staying in the city in the now mostly empty hotels.

Ok, you've made your prediction. We'll see.

 

[hmmm27]

Here (Toronto, Canada : pop.4M), I just drove to the other side of the city for a delivery, and back again, between 4:30 and 6:00pm ; something I wouldn't try normally given a choice, but there wasn't "rush hour" traffic.

 

[bhobba]

Unfortunately, in the third world countries, where everyone is crammed into a tight space, some people seriously think the kids won't bring the virus home, or if they get it from their home, bring it to school? And who brings a lot of kids to school? Adults! Plus the teachers. And you know what? Grandma and grandpa live with these kids! If they contract the virus it may kill them. And I think the reason why testing of kids isn't done much: (two words) nasopharyngeal swab. Try sticking that baby down your 7-year old's nose. No. Schools should stay closed. .

Its the same in Aus (except of course not as crammed) - but if they close schools necessary occupations will be impacted. If open - then the children will act as spreaders. The evidence so far is they are not as bad spreaders as say they are for the flu and with increased new 15 minute return time on testing (using a simple blood prick) the compromise in my post was thought the best balance. Like I said we all thought we would be in stage 4 lockdown by now - but still hovering stage 2 to 3.

Thanks
Bill

 

[chemisttree]

Ok, you've made your prediction. We'll see.

I’ll slightly amend my prediction. It won’t be the Mayor. It must be the Governor. The Mayor doesn’t have the authority. It might also come from the Jersey side.

 

[peanut]

INCREDIBLE. A humble sea worm from Brittany may bring hope to the sick who require respiratory assistance.
Initially tested for organ transplant, the hemoglobin of this worm may come to the aid of the sick who require respiratory assistance, says the report.

.../...

Translation of part of the report:

In a few days, doctors could start testing a hemoglobin extracted from the arenicola, a sea worm found on Breton beaches (photo). "The hemoglobin in this worm is capable of transporting 40 times more oxygen from the lungs to body tissues than human hemoglobin. In addition, it is a universal oxygen carrier compatible with all blood groups," explains Franck Zal, former researcher in marine biology at CNRS and founder of Hémarima, the biotech that developed this molecule.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/co...WHr6-UXT8kQwQEqtrbsHg9dDTl8r5viBxfi9yG1cXc3QQ

 

[gleem]

I surely hope that the world is taking this pandemic seriously and forming plans to take care of the next one.

We got a message from SARS and MERS but ignored the warning. We could have been farther along on a vaccine or treatment if research on SARS was allowed to continue. That research lost financial support and was discontinued see https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/scientists-were-close-to-a-sars-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago.html.

 

[phinds]

I surely hope that the world is taking this pandemic seriously and forming plans to take care of the next one.

The only lesson that mankind learns from history is that mankind doesn't learn anything from history.

 

[peanut]

The only lesson that mankind learns from history is that mankind doesn't learn anything from history.

I agree. I just want to support your statement that mankind indeed doesn't learn from history.

Edited by mentor

 

[atyy]

Iceland tested 3% of their whole population (about 10,000 tests) and found that about half of the 218 positive cases don't show symptoms. This looks similar to South Korea.

https://nordiclifescience.org/covid-19-first-results-of-the-voluntary-screening-in-iceland/

In an earlier report. they got 0.86% positive.

If they are screening everyone, 0.86% seems absurdly high for Iceland, since that would be a higher percentage than the 0.6% confirmed cases for Wuhan. I would suspect that these are false positives as @Vanadium 50 pointed out in post #994.

If they are only testing symptomatics, 0.86% is high but at least reasonable. In Guangdong, when testing symptomatics (flu-like symptoms that may or may not be Covid-19), postive cases were about 1/200 to 1/1000.

My understanding is that South Korea does not screen asymptomatics. If they do test asymptomatics, they I suspect they only test the high risk subset, eg. those who are closed contacts of confirmed cases.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The only lesson that mankind learns from history is that mankind doesn't learn anything from history.

Not all of humankind failed to learn from the past:

In the aftermath of a 2015 outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome that killed 38 people and cratered the economy, South Korea took a hard look at what had gone wrong. Among the findings: A lack of tests had prompted people ill with the disease to traipse from hospital to hospital in search of confirmation that they had MERS, a Coronavirus far more virulent than the one that causes COVID-19. Nearly half the people who got the disease were exposed at hospitals.

Korean officials enacted a key reform, allowing the government to give near-instantaneous approval to testing systems in an emergency. Within weeks of the current outbreak in Wuhan, China, four Korean companies had manufactured tests from a World Health Organization recipe and, as a result, the country quickly had a system that could assess 10,000 people a day.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind

Ironically, South Korea was able to dismantle burdensome regulations to unleash the power of the private sector, while the American response involved relying on a centralized federal agency (the CDC) to distribute testing while preventing individual states and private companies from developing their own tests.

Various Asian nations (such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong), despite their proximity to China, have been much more successful at containing the COVID-19 outbreak than other nations, and notably many of these were nations that had been hit hard by the SARS outbreak in 2003.

So, some nations were able to learn lessons from past outbreaks, in contrast to other nations that failed to learn or actively sought to dismantle and ignore lessons from past outbreaks.

 

[anorlunda]

Various Asian nations (such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong), despite their proximity to China, have been much more successful at containing the COVID-19 outbreak than other nations, and notably many of these were nations that had been hit hard by the SARS outbreak in 2003.

That sound rational. I think you are correct.