COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[wukunlin]

There have been news reports that some people are becoming frustrated in quarantine.

View attachment 259570

My wife became very agitated during the quarantine and was taking it out on me. One day I had enough and we had a shouting match. Then we calmed down as soon as we realized we justed needed a way to vent.
The other couple across the street, for example, had daily episodes with threats to murder each other, audible with our windows shut.

 

[kyphysics]

Given the that we have a vaccine and treatment for the common flu, why do so many still die each year in the U.S.? 35,000 this flu season.

 

[mfb]

Given the that we have a vaccine and treatment for the common flu, why do so many still die each year in the U.S.? 35,000 this flu season.

Many cases. 0.1% of 35 million (that's 10% of the US population getting it) is 35,000.
If COVID-19 would come with hospitalization and case fatality rates like the flu we could let it run through the population like a really bad yearly flu wave. But with its much higher numbers it would run through the population like the Spanish flu.

https://manilastandard.net/mobile/a...TwjliZwTe34otV_N0K_imko#.Xn7jfexqUlU.facebook

That sounds very questionable. A cure for everything? Do they have a publication about that, or just the claims of the doctors who want to sell it?

-----

Italy reported again stable new case numbers. 10 days of largely constant new case numbers now.

 

[atyy]

Given the that we have a vaccine and treatment for the common flu, why do so many still die each year in the U.S.? 35,000 this flu season.

There are many variants of the flu virus, and the virus also mutates into new variants quite rapidly. A vaccine against one variant will not protect as well or maybe not at all against other variants. This also helps to explain why one can get the flu more than once.

However, it is still worth getting a flu shot even if it doesn't work fully, as it may help to reduce the severity of the flu that one suffers from.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm

 

[kadiot]

Repost of Possibly Missed Question:

I previously asked if vaccine and "treatment/cure" are used interchangeably when talking about the virus?

Or, are they separate? E.g., Would a vaccine simply train the body to recognize the virus and destroy it, while a cure/treatment doesn't necessarily train the body to do so but does it for the body? Or, am I just bumbling these terms?

Thanks!

I wonder about it too. As far as I understand it some viruses already "anticipated" the usual defenses of human cells THUS already developed counters to these counter-attacks of human cells. There is already a virus (this is old) that can even disable the immune system of humans which are supposed to defend the human cells. Again.. this is old: the AIDS virus attacked the natural immune system of humans.

So if COVID-19 is a post-AIDS virus then this virus is more deceptive, vicious! Viruses evolve faster than humans' capacity to understand them.

Virus Checkmates Humanity.

 

[DennisN]

@mfb , and for others interested in COVID-19 time series data (cases, deaths, recovered):

I emailed my two charts to a couple of my friends, and I complained about extracting data from Wikipedia, and one of my friends replied that the data for the CSSE dashboard is stored here:

2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE
http://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

I've downloaded the zip from that page and checked it out quickly and there seems to be time series data available there. I just wanted to let you know .

 

[TeethWhitener]

So if COVID-19 is a post-AIDS virus then this virus is more deceptive, vicious!

This is not how viruses work. They don’t have an agenda; they are self-replicating molecular machines. How virulent and transmissible they are is determined by selection pressure and chance.

 

[Rive]

So if COVID-19 is a post-AIDS virus then this virus is more deceptive, vicious!

Nope. If you want an analogy, then it's nothing really sophisticated - just fast and cheap manufacturing with good 'marketing'. An AK-47.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Given the that we have a vaccine and treatment for the common flu, why do so many still die each year in the U.S.?

1. Vaccines are not 100% effective.
2. Treatment is not 100% effective.
3. The vast majority of flu deaths are in patients with other issues as well.

 

[bhobba]

Rushing out a cure or preventative without tests - you know, science - has its own dangers that could conceivably be worse than the disease.

Indeed, which is why I am not a fan of what Moderna doing ie animal and human trials in parallel. Sure the people are volunteers, but its morality is very debatable. What the UQ is doing is completing the animal trials before starting human ones, but once human trials start, accelerating the process by starting manufacturing at the same time so its ready for mass use once found safe and effective. Risky in the sense of possibly wasting the effort in bulk manufacturing, but it does not risk more people than in normal vaccine testing.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Realized by whom?

Looking at the stats, and seeing interviews with doctors treating this, it seems having other diseases like Diabetes, or auto-immune diseases (I know recent research suggests Diabetes is an auto-immune disease) is a big risk factor in death rate. Is the the higher death rate in older people just because they are more likely to have other conditions as well? I noticed one set of statistics that showed if you are lucky enough to be over 60 without any conditions (eg about 50% over 65 have pre-diabetes) then the death rate is just .9%. So what is the cause of increased death rate - age or underlying conditions?

Thanks
Bill

 

[gleem]

Another unexpected consequence of this virus is the shutting down of labs. My son-in-law is a medical researcher at a major university. He was forced to shut his lab. He had to euthanize all his test animals some of which were specially bred for his research. This will cost him time and money If it hasn't scuttled the projects.

 

[bhobba]

Given the that we have a vaccine and treatment for the common flu, why do so many still die each year in the U.S.? 35,000 this flu season.

Many people are so silly they do not get vaccinated. But even if they did its effectiveness relies on guessing the strains that will be going around during flu season.

Thanks
Bill

 

[phinds]

Many people are so silly they do not get vaccinated.

Right. It's over 40% on average (that don't) and in some communities it's much higher.

I think "silly" is an understatement.

 

[kolleamm]

I have a question, if our body builds up an immunity to a virus and then we get exposed to it again later would there still be some symptoms?

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

CAL Alumni Association
UC Berkley

The Do's and Donts: Health Experts Answers Your COVID Questions
By Leah Washington


By Leah Worthington
On Wednesday, March 25, Michael Lu, Dean of the UC Berkeley School of Public Health, hosted a virtual Q&A, “Coronavirus: Facts and Fears,” open to the public. For 90 minutes, experts from the school and other campus health services responded to listeners’ day-to-day fears and practical concerns about navigating life during the pandemic.
Participants include: Dr. Anna Harte (Medical Director of University Health Services), Dr. Nicholas Jewell (Professor of Biostatistics at Berkeley Public Health), Dr. Arthur Reingold (Professor, Division Head of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Berkeley Public Health), Dr. Lee Riley (Professor, Chair of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology at Berkeley Public Health), and Dr. John Swartzberg (Clinical Professor, Emeritus at Berkeley Public Health and Chair of UC Berkeley Health & Wellness Publications).
California magazine tuned in for the session. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
What can the general public do right now to help?
Anna Harte: Avoid getting infected! Take care of yourself. If you’re sick, call ahead before showing up at the clinic/hospital. Don’t hoard protective health supplies and other things. Donate masks, hand sanitizer, etc. Look up how to donate online or call your public health official.
Is there any truth to the following: People with certain blood types are more susceptible? The virus can’t survive in warm climates, under UV, in windy areas, or in refrigerators (like on contaminated milk cartons)?
Arthur Reingold: There was a study from China that says blood group A is slightly more represented in Coronavirus patients. I personally, as blood group A, am not worried. Is there a biological reason for this? I’m not sure. It’s plausible, but I don’t think anyone from blood group A needs to do anything different.
To the climate question: We’re waiting to see. We have cases around the world and in the southern hemisphere where it’s a different season. Admittedly, we haven’t seen large outbreaks from tropical regions. I don’t know. I think we’re all waiting to see.
Lee Riley: I think Art is right, we are beginning to see increasing cases in the Southern Hemisphere. For example, Brazil is really coming up rapidly. They’ve instituted school closings and are closing bars and restaurants, and restricting work. They have over 2,000 cases and 77 deaths.* But the reason we are seeing this is because Brazil has the ability to do the testing, while other countries may not.
To the UV question: Yes UV will kill coronaviruses. The wind? I don’t know how, biologically, that would happen. To the refrigerators question: If it’s not exposed to any detergents or anti-infectives, it would probably survive.

How should one handle fresh produce/groceries?

LR: A study recently looked at inanimate objects and surfaces. The virus was able to survive a few hours on cardboard, on plastic surfaces for up to 3 days, on steel surfaces less, and on copper surfaces even less. I would say there is some duration of survival on these surfaces. From these fruit markets and produce stands, they’re probably washed and that would kill the virus. But if people are eating the produce uncooked, they should probably wash it, preferably with something containing detergent. If the water in your house is chlorinated that would probably suffice.

How do I minimize my exposure while hiking outside, visiting a park, or passing someone on a narrow trail? How long are droplets suspended?

LR: If you’re outdoors and it’s a sunny day, the virus will probably be killed immediately by the UV light. Outdoors it’s highly unlikely that the virus will be transmitted. I guess if someone is coughing and passes by really closely on a trail, it’s possible.

In still air, the virus can remain suspended for up to three hours. If you’re in a room and walk in after somebody has been coughing, it’s possible you could get infected.

John Swartzberg: You have to have substantial exposure to someone within a close proximity to really be infected.

Is it ok to bring in my newspaper from outside? Do I need to clean it?

JS: That’s a difficult one. I’m of the belief that the most important way this virus spreads is through droplets when in close proximity to others. I don’t have enough science to support what I’m saying. So we have to be careful with everything conceivable at this point.

Is six feet of space enough if I’m walking side-by-side with friends, hiking at a distance, passing people on the street, etc?

AR: My own view is that 6 feet is plenty.

[ . . . ]

###
https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/just-in/2020-03-27/dos-and-donts-health-experts-answer-your-covid-questions

The article is very long. It's worth the read!

 

[Astronuc]

Back on March 4 - Just a day after a Westchester County man was confirmed as New York’s second case of the new coronavirus, the authorities revealed on Wednesday just how readily it was spreading, saying that nine people connected to the man had all tested positive.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-yeshiva-university.html

Wednesday, March 11, 2020
https://abc7ny.com/5995537/
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
https://abc7ny.com/6025403/
NEW ROCHELLE, Westchester County (WABC) -- The wife of a critically ill 50-year-old New Rochelle lawyer connected to a cluster of Coronavirus cases gave a promising update on his health on Wednesday.

Adina Garbuz said in a Facebook post that her husband Lawrence Garbuz is "awake and alert and seems to be on the road to recovery" after being in critical condition with COVID-19 for a number of weeks.

Adina Garbuz was also infected with COVID-19, along with her two children and neighbor, as well as one of her husband's friends and members of that man's family.

Ms. Garbuz indicated that she and other family members did not have severe symptoms.

March 29, 2020 - Lawyer at Center of Earliest NY Coronavirus Cluster Goes Home From Hospital
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...irus-cluster-goes-home-from-hospital/2349575/

New York State has now seen 965 coronavirus-related deaths, Cuomo said — up from 728 on Saturday. As of 9:30 a.m. Sunday, 32,308 people in New York City had tested positive for the novel coronavirus, and 678 people had died — up by six from Saturday, according to city data.

That total includes 6,145 in the Bronx, 8,451 in Brooklyn, 5,438 in Manhattan, 10,373 in Queens, 1,866 on Staten Island and 35 from "unknown" locations, the data shows. Forty five percent of those who tested positive were under the age of 45.

New Jersey, meanwhile, saw 2,262 new cases from Saturday into Sunday, bringing the state's total to 13,386. A total of 161 people in the state had died as of 1:30 p.m. Sunday, up from 140 on Saturday.

Today, NY state confirms 59513 positive cases (965 deaths) with 33768 cases in NY City and 8519 in Westchester County. There are more than 2000 serious cases in NY State alone.March 3, 2020
https://www.infectiousdiseaseadviso...nyc-first-death-reported-in-washington-state/
In a separate case, "the first case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a result of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was confirmed in New York City by Governor Andrew M Cuomo, on Sunday March 1, 2020.

The patient, a woman aged 39 years, was a healthcare worker and is believed to have contracted the infection while traveling in Iran. She returned from Iran a week before diagnosis with COVID-19 and began experiencing respiratory symptoms. "

There were subsequently other cases showing up in early March of people returning from Italy and Egypt.

Back in January - New York City bracing for almost certain arrival of Wuhan coronavirus
https://www.politico.com/states/new...-certain-arrival-of-wuhan-coronavirus-1254916

In a bizarre juxtaposition, on January 31 - You can buy a flight from Hong Kong to New York for $201. The catch? You have to stop in Wuhan for 6 hours.
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-hong-kong-new-york-flight-discount-stopover-2020-1
Bloomberg and Time reported tickets at $193
Bloomberg, January 30 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ra-cheap-flights-to-u-s-with-layover-in-wuhan
Time, January 31 - https://time.com/5775158/hong-kong-to-new-york-flight-wuhan/

 

[bhobba]

Just an update about Australia. The latest is:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...l-distancing-parks-beaches-shut-latest-update

This got me a bit 'mad'. Australians already must stay home except for essential shopping, work or school that cannot be done remotely, seeking medical services or exercising outdoors with no more than one other person. But the new rules say people aged over 70, people aged over 60 with chronic illness and indigenous Australians over 50 with chronic illness must not leave home, however it is not mandatory. It's not fully detailed in the above, and simply says 'strongly advised to stay home' which is of course redundant considering what all Australians must do. That group, of which I am one, needs to go shopping, attend medical appointments etc just the same as anyone else. In my case I need to see a physio once a week, and see doctors and various specialists, about once every two weeks. So exactly what are they saying? The nearest I can figure is people in that group should pay particular attention to what everyone is supposed to do anyway. So why not just say that?

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

I notice there is still a major discrepancy in the death rate for the USA and Germany, as compared with other western countries that are suffering from a large number of cases. Italy and Spain are already very bad and I can't see any hope for the UK not to suffer to the same extent. It's only a matter of time.

What's the prognosis for the USA and Germany? Is it expected that the death rate can be kept relatively low? How are the health services coping?

 

[Bystander]

Have the "Just in Time Business Models" come home to "roost?"

https://www.google.com/search?q="ju...ome..69i57.36436j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

[Bandersnatch]

View attachment 259579

The mortality rate can't be right. Looks like another case of confusing IFR with CFR.

 

[bhobba]

Have the "Just in Time Business Models" come home to "roost?"

They were big where I used to work. I never believed in them then, nor did they work. I still do not believe in them now, nor do I think the outcome will be any different.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kyphysics]

The mortality rate can't be right. Looks like another case of confusing IFR with CFR.

Apologies for not understanding the abbreviations. What did IFR and CFR stand for again?

 

[Bandersnatch]

What did IFR and CFR stand for again?

Case Fatality Rate - the likelihood a person diagnosed with the viral infection will die
Infection Fatality Rate - the likelihood a person will die after contracting the virus (whether diagnosed or not)

Since most infections are mild and go unreported, the former is higher than the latter.
It looks like the table reports CFR for the novel coronavirus, and IFR for the influenza.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

IFR - infection fatality rate
CFR - case fatality ratio

 

[mfb]

US considers quarantine for New York, but doesn't implement it for now.

I have a question, if our body builds up an immunity to a virus and then we get exposed to it again later would there still be some symptoms?

Too early to tell.

----

Italy's case count is approaching 100,000. They keep finding 5000-6000 cases per day.

 

[peanut]

That sounds very questionable. A cure for everything? Do they have a publication about that, or just the claims of the doctors who want to sell it?

I agree with you. We know that the whole world is hoping for prevention and cure. However, unless something has gone through the process of rigorous testing for safety and efficacy involving a huge sample size, claims like this must be taken with sobriety and much critical thinking.

I did some google research and found out these patent applications.

https://patents.google.com/patent/WO2016053121A1/en

Again.. applications. I understand that the process is long and requires test subjects.

 

[symbolipoint]

I notice there is still a major discrepancy in the death rate for the USA and Germany, as compared with other western countries that are suffering from a large number of cases. Italy and Spain are already very bad and I can't see any hope for the UK not to suffer to the same extent. It's only a matter of time.

What's the prognosis for the USA and Germany? Is it expected that the death rate can be kept relatively low? How are the health services coping?

A news report broadcast briefly explained that they are more physically fit and so recover better from the infection. This also meant/means, fewer die.

 

[peanut]

This might interest those who would like to study the available pharmacological data around covid-19.

https://www.ashp.org/-/media/assets/pharmacy-practice/resource-centers/Coronavirus/docs/ASHP-COVID-19-Evidence-Table.ashx?la=en&hash=B414CC64FD64E1AE8CA47AD753BA744EDF4FFB8C&fbclid=IwAR0ps08aU6CzahkGm8q6Iw60XmVuTWPLBnNF1MsUchtPvU_6p2xDpodWV_w

 

[atyy]

Coronavirus Kent: Shopper spotted wearing Stormtrooper mask in Sittingbourne Asda during Covid-19 outbreak
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/sittin...ted-wearing-stormtrooper-mask-in-asda-224071/

It should work against droplets, which are thought to be the main mode of Covid-19 transmission. It's also washable and re-useable.

 

[atyy]

Would everyone wearing face masks help us slow the pandemic?
By Kelly Servick
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/would-everyone-wearing-face-masks-help-us-slow-pandemic

 

[atyy]

COVID-19 and the Risk to Health Care Workers: A Case Report
Kangqi Ng, MBBS; Beng Hoong Poon, MBBS, MPH, MMed (Family Med); Troy Hai Kiat Puar, MBBS; Jessica Li Shan Quah, MBBS; Wann Jia Loh, MBBS; Yu Jun Wong, MD; Thean Yen Tan, MBBCh; Jagadesan Raghuram, MB BCh BAO
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2763329/covid-19-risk-health-care-workers-case-report

"Objective: To describe the clinical outcome of health care workers who took care of a patient with severe pneumonia before the diagnosis of COVID-19 was known."

"In the situation we describe, 85% of health care workers were exposed during an aerosol-generating procedure exposed while wearing a surgical mask, and the remainder were wearing N95 masks. That none of the health care workers in this situation acquired infection suggests that surgical masks, hand hygiene, and other standard procedures protected them from being infected. Our observation is consistent with previous studies that have been unable to show that N95 masks were superior to surgical masks for preventing influenza infection in health care workers"

 

[atyy]

I have a question, if our body builds up an immunity to a virus and then we get exposed to it again later would there still be some symptoms?

Generally, it is thought that you will not get symptoms the second time round when you have immunity (almost by definition). However, in many cases immunity does wear off after some time. Also, if you get exposed to a variant of the virus, the immunity you have may not apply to a different variant of the virus.

An interesting example is chicken pox, which is caused by a virus. Generally, after getting chicken pox once, you cannot get it again, as you have immunity. However, the virus can lie dormant in your nerves, and cause shingles later on in life. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/features/shingles-chickenpox#1

 

[DennisN]

Coronavirus Kent: Shopper spotted wearing Stormtrooper mask in Sittingbourne Asda during Covid-19 outbreak
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/sittin...ted-wearing-stormtrooper-mask-in-asda-224071/

It should work against droplets, which are thought to be the main mode of Covid-19 transmission. It's also washable and re-useable.

Imagine all people around the world going outside wearing Stormtrooper masks. Then the Empire will really be striking back!

 

[256bits]

Simulations of an epidemic
This video I found interesting on effects of what travel, social distancing, central market, isolation can do to the spread of a disease.
Courtesy of 3Blue1Brown