COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[atyy]

South Korea relaxes some social distancing rules as new Coronavirus cases fall
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-coronavirus-south-korea-social-distancing-cases-12656516

Ahead of the curve: South Korea's evolving strategy to prevent a COVID-19 resurgence
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-south-korea-evolving-strategy-prevent-resurgence-12643774

 

[Ygggdrasil]

If the numbers you posted were correct, Hubei province alone would already have had 800,000 deaths. In all of China, fewer than 5000 deaths have been reported.

This statement hugely misinterprets @chirhone's post. The claim was that, in the absence of protective measures, up to 70% of the population could be infected (this number is on the higher end of figures offered by experts). Scientifically, these numbers are based on the fraction of the population that would need to be infected for the population to achieve herd immunity, which is the scenario in which the outbreak would end without interventions to stop the spread of the disease.

Of course, China imposed quite severe interventions to stop the spread of the disease, so it is completely inappropriate to question the validity of these estimates based on the number of death observed after the imposition of very strict quarantines. There are a number of scientifically valid and intelligent reasons to question the estimates in @chirhone's post, but this is not one of them.

 

[peanut]

A lesson on exponential function

https://centerforinquiry.org/blog/i...-vuGmtoe_W-DYwuAZmK6W10XBDGyrijcgPA5wZQLHiFDE

 

[bhobba]

A lesson on exponential function

I have said it before, and will say it again, I think when the true denominator is known it will be found to have a death rate about the same as the flu without a vaccine (the death rate being lowered if you do get it and are vaccinated). The real issue is the R0 - about 2.3 compared to the flu's 1.3 or so. That means by comparison cases literally explode. To me this is its main issue. BTW we don't have to wait until no cases for two weeks - simply have an effective R0 significantly below 1 for a reasonable amount of time - it will die out. Of course with a higher R0 than the flu it's going to be harder to get it well below 1.

As an aside, the new measurement they are using here in Aus to decide when to start lifting, slowly, restrictions is R0 - its about .5 at the moment in most states.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

I think when the true denominator is known it will be found to have a death rate not much worse than the flu without a vaccine.

Which denominator? There are at least three probabilities being bandied about:

1. The probability of death once exposed
2. The probability of death once infected
3. The probability of death once symptomatic

The working assumption is that 1 and 2 are nearly equal, and 3 is smaller. That may or may not prove to be the case.

 

[bhobba]

Which denominator? There are at least three probabilities being bandied about:

1. The probability of death once exposed
2. The probability of death once infected
3. The probability of death once symptomatic

2. We are now finding that quite a few people are either asymptomatic, but still contagious, or have it so mildly they do not know it. That is from new tracing protocols here in Aus where they check even if you show no symptoms. The exact number will be clearer when more people are checked for antibodies, but I saw an interview with a doctor at the front lines in New York where she thinks 50% are asymptomatic - just anecdotal of course. I was unaware that the thinking was 1 = 2 eg at a wedding here in Aus where everyone was thought to be exposed a lot certainly got it, but not everyone.

Just as an aside the number of deaths from that Ruby Princess fiasco is now 21 out of 70 Australian deaths. What a stuff up.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

And about the "third of fatalities have been people living in care homes":

US numbers have been reported between 20% and nearly 50%, depending on the space and time one uses to do the calculation.

This would also explain the relative good luck of Tokyo, where nursing homes are less of a "thing" than in Europe or the US.

Let me also repeat my comment about Sweden. Post-lockdown, Sweden's statistics look pretty much like everybody else's. If one wants to argue that it's too early too tell, that's fine, but that's an argument that works in both direction. If one wants to argue that Sweden has a rate higher than, say, Denmark, and it's Sweden's fault, one needs to look at the pre-lockdown conditions.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The working assumption is that 1 and 2 are nearly equal, and 3 is smaller.

Ack...I meant "larger" of course.

 

[bhobba]

Ack...I meant "larger" of course.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

but I saw an interview with a doctor at the front lines in New York where she thinks 50% are asymptomatic - just anecdotal of course..

There is one study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 where they tried to test a random sample of the population. (They tested who responded and then adjusted).

They say: "Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections. "

Two million people live in Santa Clara County (which includes San Jose) It has a population density of 1300 people per mile. (NYC and inner suburbs is around ~60000)

We also have two cruise ships where everyone was tested: the Diamond Princess and the Greg Mortimer. The Diamond Princess had <20% infected and the Greg Mortimer with ~60%. The Diamond Princess has a population density about the same as Manhattan, and the Greg Mortimer even higher. (However, the daytime density in NYC is higher, and that is likely an important factor)

 

[kyphysics]

There is plenty of documented evidence that high level advisors within the US government were warning of the potential for death tolls this high as early as late January:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/politics/navarro-warning-trump-coronavirus.html

A top White House adviser starkly warned Trump administration officials in late January that the coronavirus crisis could cost the United States trillions of dollars and put millions of Americans at risk of illness or death.

The warning, written in a memo by Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade adviser, is the highest-level alert known to have circulated inside the West Wing as the administration was taking its first substantive steps to confront a crisis that had already consumed China’s leaders and would go on to upend life in Europe and the United States.

“The lack of immune protection or an existing cure or vaccine would leave Americans defenseless in the case of a full-blown Coronavirus outbreak on U.S. soil,” Mr. Navarro’s memo said. “This lack of protection elevates the risk of the Coronavirus evolving into a full-blown pandemic, imperiling the lives of millions of Americans.”

In addition, the piece cites a second memo from late Feb:

A second memo that Mr. Navarro wrote, dated Feb. 23, warned of an “increasing probability of a full-blown COVID-19 pandemic that could infect as many as 100 million Americans, with a loss of life of as many as 1-2 million souls.”

Similarly, other news outlets have reported of reports from the intelligence community in Jan and Feb also warning of significant health risks to the US.

It does not seem like a lack of warning was the major issue.

I think the U.S. had to have known what really happened in China, because of modern day C.I.A. and technology capabilities. And, hence, by logic should have known it could happen here, as flights to and from Wuhan/China and the U.S. (and Europe) were constantly running before travel bans went up.

We found Osama bin Laden in a hole in the ground in the middle of nowhere. The U.S. targeted Iran's Soleimani in January and took him out with a precision drone strike. For the U.S. to not have the capability to see mass deaths/burials in Wuhan and a lockdown of the Chinese economy would seem very bizarre relative to its surveillance capabilities in so many other areas.

To me, the question is why were we not better prepared - not how we couldn't have known?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

There is one study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 where they tried to test a random sample of the population. (They tested who responded and then adjusted).

They say: "Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections. "

Two million people live in Santa Clara County (which includes San Jose) It has a population density of 1300 people per mile. (NYC and inner suburbs is around ~60000)

We also have two cruise ships where everyone was tested: the Diamond Princess and the Greg Mortimer. The Diamond Princess had <20% infected and the Greg Mortimer with ~60%. The Diamond Princess has a population density about the same as Manhattan, and the Greg Mortimer even higher. (However, the daytime density in NYC is higher, and that is likely an important factor)

I've seen a lot of criticisms of that study. For example, the population they sampled was far from random as they recruited subjects who responded to an advertisement on Facebook. It is likely that those who responded to the ad were more likely to be those who think they may have been exposed and would want to get tested (especially given the difficulty of getting tested in CA). Weighting the responses by zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity is unlikely to eliminate such a bias from the data.

Here's a decent critique of the study that brings up additional important points:

To summarize, there are three broad reasons why I am skeptical of this study’s claims.

1. First, the false positive rate may be high enough to generate many of the reported 50 positives out of 3330 samples. Or put another way, we don’t have high confidence in a very low false positive rate, as the 95% confidence interval for the false positive rate is roughly [0%, >1.2%] and the reported positive rate is ~1.5%.
2. Second, the study may have enriched for COVID-19 cases by (a) serving as a test-of-last-resort for symptomatic or exposed people who couldn’t get tests elsewhere in the Bay Area and/or (b) allowing said people to recruit other COVID-19 cases to the study in private groups. These mechanisms could also account for a significant chunk of the 50 positives in 3330 samples.
3. Third, in order to produce the visible excess mortality numbers that COVID-19 is already piling up in Europe and NYC, the study would imply that COVID-19 is spreading significantly faster than past pandemics like H1N1, many of which had multiple waves and took more than a year to run their course.

(source)

So, while the data are valuable, they are by no means definitive and should be taken in context with other seroprevalence studies underway in other areas of the world. As often occurs in science, the rushed, more poorly run studies will be quicker to report than the slower, more methodogically sound studies. Hopefully, as more of these studies come out, we will get a better picture of what fraction has been infected and developed immunity, which will be important information in helping guide policy going forward.

 

[OmCheeto]

The Netherlands looks kind of middling to me. I'd look at the outliers. Belgium and Spain have extraordinary numbers.
Until you look at NYC, of course. I replaced the "X" with an arrow at the end of its plot, as it is currently around 2000 deaths per million.

I see that lots of people are trying to figure out the "why" behind the numbers. Of course, I have my own hypothesis, but I'm pretty sure few of our predictions will be correct.

That said, I found the following group interesting.
4 orders of magnitude from most to least dead, per million.
All populations are less than an order of magnitude apart.
All are physically very far apart from each other.

ps. In case anyone wonders how Oregon got in there, that's where I live.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Every country should be like New Zealand, in my opinion. plane @ simple

 

[OmCheeto]

Every country should be like New Zealand, in my opinion. plane @ simple

Thanks!
Another set of interesting data points.

 

[BillTre]

Nice chart, thanks for making it.

It would be interesting to see relative numbers on population densities and the numbers of people moving into the different areas (like airport traffic, not sure if just numbers of nmbers/pop. size would be better).

 

[Vanadium 50]

For example, the population they sampled was far from random as they recruited subjects who responded to an advertisement on Facebook. It is likely that those who responded to the ad were more likely to be those who think they may have been exposed and would want to get tested (especially given the difficulty of getting tested in CA). Weighting the responses by zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity is unlikely to eliminate such a bias from the data.

Let me address the objections:

(1) Typically what is done is that the first pass says "a study" without being specific to try and reduce (and ultimately correct for) this bias. A weakness of this paper is it does not go into detail on this, and that's a fair criticism. But could it really be off by a factor of fifty? That's a heck of a selection bias.

(2) False positives and Bayes theorem is a completely fair point. I pointed that out myself 32 days ago. At the time people were telling me that false positives were completely impossible. I guess times have changed.

(3) The third point is essentially "I don't believe the answer" because it doesn't match past experience. In that case, there isn't much point in doing these studies, is there? I would be remiss in pointing out that the cruise ship data suggests it spreads very fast, and that we have been told for two months now that "this is completely unprecedented!"

There's more than a little data that suggests the spread is faster than expected, which means that the mortality rate is correspondingly lower (since the product is constant).

 

[OmCheeto]

Nice chart, thanks for making it.

It would be interesting to see relative numbers on population densities and the numbers of people moving into the different areas (like airport traffic, not sure if just numbers of nmbers/pop. size would be better).

I would look into that, but my suspicions are that your parameters are irrelevant, so I won't.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Mapping the worldwide
spread of the coronavirus

By Washington Post Staff Updated April 19 at 3:49 p.m.​

More than 130,000 people have died worldwide in the Covid-19 pandemic as of April 15, and millions of cases have been reported, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The United States is now the outbreak’s epicenter, with more recorded deaths and reported infections than any other country.

Several countries are confirming thousands of new cases of Covid-19 each day, led by the United States, where testing was slow to begin.

On March 31, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the pandemic “the most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War.”

Reported deaths

164,938

Reported cases

2,394,291​

Deaths Cases

Adjusted for population

[ . . .]

###
https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...read-new-coronavirus/?itid=lk_inline_manual_6

 

[mfb]

If it doesn't work (not just no evidence) , then it means herd immunity doesn't work too?

No. It just means the test is not reliable. As an example it might react to antibodies from a different Coronavirus - reacting to people who had a common cold.

Following the paragraph, it says that "“There’s been an expectation, maybe, that herd immunity may have been achieved and that the majority of people in society may already have developed antibodies. I think the general evidence is pointing against that... so it may not solve the problem the governments are trying to solve.”

Yes, at this moment only a small fraction of the population had it. That's generally known.

What would happen to infections when there are no herd immunity?

See today's world.

But then millions of americans die per year from the flu (this is true?). Then it's like a 4 or 5 year fatality from illnesses. Since they are used to it. Maybe 4.6 million death would just be just common illnesses fatality statistics?

No it is not true, as even a quick cross check would have shown. The US has 340 million people, if that would be constant we would expect about 4 million deaths per year, as the US tends to have a younger population the actual number is 2.8 million (2019). That's barely "millions", even if the flu would be the only cause of death in the US. Clearly it is not. Influenza and pneumonia together killed 56,000 last year.

(2) False positives and Bayes theorem is a completely fair point. I pointed that out myself 32 days ago. At the time people were telling me that false positives were completely impossible.

Who said that?
I remember people discussing how problematic false positives are. I don't remember anyone claiming false positives were impossible.

 

[Vanadium 50]

But then millions of americans die per year from the flu (this is true?).

No, it's not true. Just like several other posts of yours.

In a good year, as low as 12,000 people per year die of the flu. In a bad year, it's more like 60.000.

If Covid-19 ultimately kills 100,000 people, that's twice a bad flu season. It would be the worst since 1969.

 

[atyy]

I would look into that, but my suspicions are that your parameters are irrelevant, so I won't.

You avoid doing it because then Oregon will be as bad as New York (just kidding, I lived in Eugene for a while, the most beautiful place I've ever lived - either that or San Francisco with the Golden Gate at sunset, but I had to run to that, whereas Eugene was beautiful right at the doorstep).

 

[chirhone]

No, it's not true. Just like several other posts of yours.

In a good year, as low as 12,000 people per year die of the flu. In a bad year, it's more like 60.000.

If Covid-19 ultimately kills 100,000 people, that's twice a bad flu season. It would be the worst since 1969.

Ah ok. So if Covid kills 60,000 americans. It's just like fatalities from flu and no big deal.

In my country. We only have less than 10 deaths from flu. That's why if Covid kills 1,000, it would mean so much.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

LLNL COVID-19 Research and Response
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is fully committed to helping protect the U.S. from COVID-19 and to speed the recovery of those affected. As a world-class research institute, we have considerable infrastructure, unique research capabilities and a dedicated team of scientists and engineers supporting the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Because of the California shelter-in-place order, LLNL is currently operating at reduced mission-critical operations; however, our researchers continue to be focused on defeating COVID-19 and are active both on- and off-site.

Since the emergence of the pandemic in January, we have been supporting the research and medical communities with tools and information to better understand COVID-19. For example, on February 3rd, we released predicted structures of a key COVID-19 viral protein to help the research community accelerate development of potential medical treatments. A summary of our initial research efforts is also available, as is information about our participation in the COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium. LLNL is also a part of the Department of Energy’s collective response to the pandemic.

The Laboratory is a highly collaborative organization, and we welcome partnerships with academia and industry. Our current COVID-19 research and response activities are focused on four broad areas: High Performance Computing, Detection, Medical Countermeasures and Medical Equipment. The Laboratory is also leveraging our unique capabilities and infrastructure to support the fight against COVID-19, as well as creating a COVID-19 data portal to expedite access to our modeling results. For technical inquiries and collaborative opportunities, please contact the Laboratory’s Biosecurity Center at biosecurity@llnl.gov. More information about our current activities can be found on the following pages.

[ . . . ]

###
https://www.llnl.gov/coronavirus

Battling COVID-19 with expertise, technology, and materials

Updated: Monday, April 13 1:45 p.m.

A multidisciplinary effort

LOS ALAMOS, NM, April 8, 2020—Los Alamos National Laboratory, like many of the Department of Energy national laboratories, is drawing on its rich history in the biological sciences to actively engage in the national effort to study, understand, and answer important questions about the COVID-19 outbreak. Areas covered include disease detection and diagnostics, epidemic modeling, disease prediction and forecasting, decision support, data collection and integration, and medical measures.

“Over the last several weeks, the Laboratory has taken extraordinary steps to preserve the ability to execute our mission while assisting our surrounding communities, the state, and our nation during this demanding national emergency,” said Los Alamos Director Thom Mason. “Many are looking to the Laboratory for resources including our expertise, technology, and materials to help combat the COVID-19 virus.”

Los Alamos is providing decision-support for business and government, according to Mason.

“We are also collaborating with other national laboratories in the Department of Energy complex to develop an alternative COVID-19 testing method and are evaluating the potential of advanced manufacturing, specifically 3-D printing, to produce scarce medical equipment,” Mason said.

[ . . . ]

###
https://www.lanl.gov/updates/covid-19-science.php

 

[kyphysics]

Ah ok. So if Covid kills 60,000 americans. It's just like fatalities from flu and no big deal.

In my country. We only have less than 10 deaths from flu. That's why if Covid kills 1,000, it would mean so much.

What country are you from, chirhone?

Why so few deaths from flu?

 

[Vanadium 50]

So if Covid kills 60,000 americans. It's just like fatalities from flu and no big deal.

Killing people is a big deal.

You've posted a lot of idiotic things, but this takes the cake.

 

[atyy]

Germany eyes some normality after bringing Coronavirus outbreak ‘under control’
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/eur...irus-under-control-other-parts-europe-are-far
"Declaring that it has brought the Coronavirus “under control”, Germany will allow thousands of shops, bookstores, furniture stores and car dealerships to reopen on Monday in what amounts to a first significant step towards a return to normality in Europe’s biggest economy.
But the cautious restart in Germany after a month of public lockdown – a reflection of its low Covid-19 death and falling reproduction rates – stands in sharp contrast to Spain, France, Italy and the UK. Lockdowns designed to slow the spread of the virus have been extended into May as the total numbers of deaths in those four major European countries rose ominously towards 80,000."

Coronavirus lockdown: NZ to ease restrictions after 'stopping explosion'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52350910
"New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern has thanked people for "stopping an uncontrolled explosion of Covid-19", as she announced an easing of lockdown.
The country has been praised for its quick and strict response to the virus, and will move from "Level 4" lockdown to "Level 3" late next Monday.
It means some businesses can reopen, along with some schools, while rules on local travel will be relaxed.
"We have done what very few countries have been able to do," Ms Ardern said."

 

[Vanadium 50]

What country are you from, chirhone?

He says he is from the Philippines. Quezon City.

In my country. We only have less than 10 deaths from flu.

This is not true.

 

[chirhone]

What country are you from, chirhone?

Why so few deaths from flu?

Because we never have any winters, we never saw any snow all our lives. It's like summer all year long. I personally never heard of anyone dying from flu.

But then when I googled about flu in my country. I read about flu and pneumonia accounting for 10% of the deaths. So I'll spend the week reading about the flu here. It's been more than a month of lockdown and I have finished many movies on Netflix and bored already. Sorry for not knowing in details about flu. I never have any flu shots all my life.. so are most people I know.

Our country is seriously considering martial-law like lockdown using the armed forces and police to guard every street and put in jail anyone who violated the lockdown. This is after our deaths soar to more than 400 (it's now 428 today) and people are shaking. Our president is undecided whether to extend the lockdown to 2 months.

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/4/19/afp-leaked-memo-preps-lockdown.html?fbclid=IwAR3E3pjQ11PDSZlzzPe4fhZlB9WafEWL9o2-PPfEquWbMoaWR-9RxW5IT28

Meanwhile. In the United States, Deaths are nearly in the 40,000 and the leader is in support of the protest against lockdown. So death could really soar to over 100,000 by December.

 

[bhobba]

This is not true.

Even if we got 100% vaccinated, which of course should be any countries aim, it is not 100% effective. First we have to guess the flu strains that will be circulating - that's rather hit and miss. But if we are lucky to do that then we face the issue it is not 100% effective in preventing the flu. Fortunately, although it might not prevent some people getting it, it is generally not as bad if you do get it - death rates of vaccinated people is lower. You can do an internet search - here is an example:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2017-2018/vaccine-reduces-risk-severe-illness.htm

While IMHO everyone should get a flu shot each year, unfortuneately there will still be deaths, and, again unfortuneately, it will be more than 10. It goes without saying this is still a big advance over not having a vaccine as is currently the situation with Covid. But even with the vaccine sensible measures like hand washing, reasonable social distancing etc is still very worthwhile - but a lockdown most would likely judge as not necessary.

Thanks
Bill

 

[chirhone]

Because we never have any winters, we never saw any snow all our lives. It's like summer all year long. I personally never heard of anyone dying from flu.

But then when I googled about flu in my country. I read about flu and pneumonia accounting for 10% of the deaths. So I'll spend the week reading about the flu here. It's been more than a month of lockdown and I have finished many movies on Netflix and bored already. Sorry for not knowing in details about flu. I never have any flu shots all my life.. so are most people I know.

Our country is seriously considering martial-law like lockdown using the armed forces and police to guard every street and put in jail anyone who violated the lockdown. This is after our deaths soar to more than 400 (it's now 428 today) and people are shaking. Our president is undecided whether to extend the lockdown to 2 months.

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/4/19/afp-leaked-memo-preps-lockdown.html?fbclid=IwAR3E3pjQ11PDSZlzzPe4fhZlB9WafEWL9o2-PPfEquWbMoaWR-9RxW5IT28

Meanwhile. In the United States, Deaths are nearly in the 40,000 and the leader is in support of the protest against lockdown. So death could really soar to over 100,000 by December.

Where are our Wuhan survivors who have been giving us advices last month (I remembered corresponding with a couple).

In Wuhan. You don't just flatten the curve, you tried to destroy every trace of the infection. My country is now into 1.5 months and I've been jobless for this long. So I need to think of this seriously in support for or against extending the lockdown.

This is the good analysis about flattening the curve (where I got the country list of casualties).

https://news.abs-cbn.com/ancx/culture/spotlight/04/19/20/recent-data-suggests-the-philippines-is-doing-better-in-flattening-the-curve

Is Wuhan a different case where they aim for zero infection that can't be repeated elsewhere? Instead of flattening the curve, they are removing the curve (what is a good jargon here).

What's so puzzling is how come the United States is in such chaos of debates whether lockdown should be lifted soon even with many infections still ongoing. They don't believe in flattening the curve? I can't understand what Trump is thinking.

Yesterday Trump called our president to talk to him. I don't want him to inject thoughts in his head. Because it can influence us eventually. I need to think about this in the critical 10 days ahead where we will debate whether to extend the lockdown to 2 months with martial law implementation. Why can't the US use the armed forces (like us) to implement the lockdown. We don't have protest anymore because those who did initally we still in jail.

 

[Jarvis323]

Where are our Wuhan survivors who have been giving us advices last month (I remembered corresponding with a couple).

In Wuhan. You don't just flatten the curve, you tried to destroy every trace of the infection. My country is now into 1.5 months and I've been jobless for this long. So I need to think of this seriously in support for or against extending the lockdown.

This is the good analysis about flattening the curve (where I got the country list of casualties).

https://news.abs-cbn.com/ancx/culture/spotlight/04/19/20/recent-data-suggests-the-philippines-is-doing-better-in-flattening-the-curve

Is Wuhan a different case where they aim for zero infection that can't be repeated elsewhere? Instead of flattening the curve, they are removing the curve (what is a good jargon here).

What's so puzzling is how come the United States is in such chaos of debates whether lockdown should be lifted soon even with many infections still ongoing. They don't believe in flattening the curve? I can't understand what Trump is thinking.

Yesterday Trump called our president to talk to him. I don't want him to inject thoughts in his head. Because it can influence us eventually. I need to think about this in the critical 10 days ahead where we will debate whether to extend the lockdown to 2 months with martial law implementation. Why can't the US use the armed forces (like us) to implement the lockdown. We don't have protest anymore because those who did initally we still in jail.

Since the US is in the midst of an election process (an especially warlike
one), everything is politicized.

The thing I realized is that extending the lockdown is not a simple choice. It has only been possible so far due to the stimulus checks. If it goes longer (without more payouts) then a very large swath of the population won't have the means to survive. Chaos would erupt as people would have no choice but to start raiding stores or houses.

 

[chirhone]

Since the US is in the midst of an election process (an especially warlike
one), everything is politicized.

The thing I realized is that extending the lockdown is not a simple choice. It has only been possible so far due to the stimulus checks. If it goes longer (without more payouts) then a very large swath of the population won't have the means to survive. Chaos would erupt as people would have no choice but to start raiding stores or houses.

Here the government feeds the people by going to their house and delivering the foods. This has been going on for 1.5 months and the entire money of the government is being stretched. We were debating whether to extend it to 2 months. But if we stopped the lockdown prematurely. We may be like the United States with massive infection and deaths. The senators are shaking whenever they open the news and see the death toll in the US. But if our lockdown goes on, we may get so poor.

Presently I use the following half face respirator when going out (plus air tight goggles).

The filter is P100... better than N95. It is so air tight that if you block the two ports, you can't breath any air. Which brings to this question. How airborne is covid-19? Can it pass through the 0.3micron P100 filter with 99.97% efficiency? I think though the virus is almost always in a droplet from a sneeze or cough. But can the virus themselves be propelled independently outside the droplets?

If we can't contain the virus like in Wuhan. Then we may have to wear like the above for the rest of our lives.

China Covid-19 experts have visited our country and commented we couldn't determine the source of infection so may not stop it. In the United States, what does it mean to determine the source of infection? Is it impossible so Covid-19 would become part of american way of life for decades to come?

 

[WWGD]

I can't tell if you are serious or not.

First, China is not rich. It's #72 according to the World Bank in GDP per capita. It does slightly worse in PPP.

Second, your message (sadly, like many of yours) is poorly thought out and would have been vastly improved by a few seconds of research. Had you Googled "Covid Poor" you would have received almost a billion hits, pointing out that in the US the poor are being hit disproportionately hard by this.

A fair point that you could have made, but did not, is that the world economy is taking a $10T or so hit for a disease that will likely kill fewer people this year than malaria (and many fewer over a decade than malaria). Yet we are spending 2000x more on Covid than malaria. Why is that?

It will kill fewer people _ After/with confinement_. Can you say the death rate would have been similar without the social distancing?

 

[Jarvis323]

Here the government feeds the people by going to their house and delivering the foods. This has been going on for 1.5 months and the entire money of the government is being stretched. We were debating whether to extend it to 2 months. But if we stopped the lockdown prematurely. We may be like the United States with massive infection and deaths. The senators are shaking whenever they open the news and see the death toll in the US. But if our lockdown goes on, we may get so poor.

Presently I use the following half face respirator when going out (plus air tight goggles). View attachment 261036

The filter is P100... better than N95. It is so air tight that if you block the two ports, you can't breath any air. Which brings to this question. How airborne is covid-19? Can it pass through the 0.3micron P100 filter with 99.97% efficiency? I think though the virus is almost always in a droplet from a sneeze or cough. But can the virus themselves be propelled independently outside the droplets?

If we can't contain the virus like in Wuhan. Then we may have to wear like the above for the rest of our lives.

China Covid-19 experts have visited our country and commented we couldn't determine the source of infection so may not stop it. In the United States, what does it mean to determine the source of infection? Is it impossible so Covid-19 would become part of american way of life for decades to come?

Yes the virus is airborne. It's not just droplets that can infect you.

But it's not just whether you are exposed to virus particles that can determine if you become infected and sometimes also how severely, it's also how much of the virus you are exposed to. This is why 13 feet or so has been suggested as safe even though the virus coming from your breath can technically spread throughout an entire warehouse, and why N95 masks are effective without blocking all the particles. Droplets are the worst because they carry large doses. Even a mask that blocks less than half of the particles is better than nothing; in some case, blocking even 1% could change the outcome if it puts it below a threshold.