COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[chemisttree]

Pneumonia is one of the main causes of death in Covid-19. The pneumonia is a bacterium right? Am I correct in saying Covid-19 may cause an opportunist pneumonia?

Yes, you are correct. The virus produces an environment where opportunistic bacterial infections cause pneumonia.

 

[chemisttree]

No. For this, it is the virus itself...

Nope!

 

[peanut]

No. For this, it is the virus itself...

Do you mean pneumonia can be caused by a virus? And in Covid-19 case, it is.

 

[Borg]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumonia

 

[peanut]

The virus produces an environment where opportunistic bacterial infections cause pneumonia.

Virus and bacterial (co-infection?)

 

[chemisttree]

Virus and bacterial (co-infection?)

Yep!

 

[jbriggs444]

Virus and bacterial (co-infection?)

Pneumonia is the condition -- alveoli being filled with fluid and, hence, non-functional. The cause can be either viral or bacterial.

noun

1. lung inflammation caused by bacterial or viral infection, in which the air sacs fill with pus and may become solid. Inflammation may affect both lungs ( double pneumonia ), one lung ( single pneumonia ), or only certain lobes ( lobar pneumonia ).

 

[peanut]

Yep!

Thank you. But having been vaccinized by pneumo though not a guaranty can mitigate the effect?

 

[Rive]

Do you mean pneumonia can be caused by a virus? And in Covid-19 case, it is.

Yes. You can get bacterial bonus too, but in case of Covid19 the primary cause of the pneumonia is the virus (in a possible alternative explanation: your own immune system).

 

[Dullard]

Mold, fungus, particulates, chemicals...

 

[Astronuc]

Pneumonia is one of the main causes of death in Covid-19. The pneumonia is a bacterium right? Am I correct in saying Covid-19 may cause an opportunist pneumonia?

Pneumonia is inflamed or swollen lung tissue due to infection with a germ.
Viral pneumonia is caused by a virus.

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000073.htm

Bacterial pneumonia is an inflammation of the lungs due to bacterial infection. Different types of bacteria can cause pneumonia. This type of pneumonia can occur in both lungs, one lung, or one section of a lung.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/312565

Pneumonia is an infection that inflames the air sacs in one or both lungs. The air sacs may fill with fluid or pus (purulent material), causing cough with phlegm or pus, fever, chills, and difficulty breathing. A variety of organisms, including bacteria, viruses and fungi, can cause pneumonia.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pneumonia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354204
According to the Mayo Clinic, "The most common cause of bacterial pneumonia in the U.S. is Streptococcus pneumoniae. "

Pneumonia may also be caused by a mycoplasma, which is what I had several years ago. I had a persistent dry cough, which might have started with one of several cold viruses. I had no fever, then got better (two weeks from the time I felt a cold), but I still had a mild cough. Then I got worse, developed a fever and productive cough. I went to the doctor and he put me on antibiotics, and the illness resolved in 4 days.

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumonia/atypical/mycoplasma/index.html

https://www.cdc.gov/pneumonia/atypical/mycoplasma/index.html

One could have both viral and bacterial pneumonia, with the bacteria being an opportunistic or secondary infection.

 

[PeterDonis]

The pneumonia is a bacterium right?

"Pneumonia" is not a name for a single disease. It's a general term for "diseases that fill the lungs with fluid, impairing lung function". Even apart from COVID-19, there are multiple varieties of bacteria and viruses that can cause pneumonia.

 

[chemisttree]

Thank you. But having been vaccinized by pneumo though not a guaranty can mitigate the effect?

Probably not. The virus itself can cause the pneumonia. It’s going to be a co-infection. The bacteria at the back of your throat are going to find a way into the lungs.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

From the WHO:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The course of the outbreak is what Dr. Birx refers to as “granular” in nature at this time. This means that some parts of the country where infection rates are low can contact trace while other parts of the country have accepted an endemic presence of the virus and have given up on tracing . LA isn’t contact tracing cases anymore, for example. Korea was able to do this because they acted very early... when they only had confirmed cases in the single digits!

Our window in the US for a S. Korea type solution is long past. We are committed to a mitigation strategy like Italy now. It will always be so. Contact tracing is history now except in places far removed from the outbreak’s centers in New York, Washington, California AND for only a short time, since there are currently few travel restrictions into and out of those locations.

I agree that we need suppression strategies at the moment, such as social distancing and stay at home orders, but these measures should not need to continue indefinitely. These suppression strategies should be able to stop the spread of the virus so that there are new cases, and reduce the level of cases so that we can go back to a situation where contact tracing is a viable strategy (see the analysis from Tomas Pueyo for more discussion).

Here's a report from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis providing preliminary evidence that China has been able to contain the spread through their lockdowns and has been successful (so far) in beginning to lift social distancing measures. Hopefully as stay at home orders continue in the US and we move towards containing the outbreak, analysis of the situation in China can inform how we plan to ramp down social distancing measures:

The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. As of 20 March 2020, over 254,000 cases and 10,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. The outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. At the peak of the outbreak in China (early February), there were between 2,000 and 4,000 new confirmed cases per day. For the first time since the outbreak began there have been no new confirmed cases caused by local transmission in China reported for five consecutive days up to 23 March 2020. This is an indication that the social distancing measures enacted in China have led to control of COVID-19 in China. These interventions have also impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic is not yet clear. Here, we estimate transmissibility from reported cases and compare those estimates with daily data on within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the 5 provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation is no longer apparent even though within-city movement has started to increase. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity can be maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. These results do not preclude future epidemics in China, nor do they allow us to estimate the maximum proportion of previous within-city activity that will be recovered in the medium term. However, they do suggest that after very intense social distancing which resulted in containment, China has successfully exited their stringent social distancing policy to some degree. Globally, China is at a more advanced stage of the pandemic. Policies implemented to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in China and the exiting strategies that followed can inform decision making processes for countries once containment is achieved.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...ID19-Exiting-Social-Distancing-24-03-2020.pdf

 

[Astronuc]

It looks like NY may have slowed the spread of infection, but more data needed.

March 24, 2020 - 25,665 positive cases (and 210 deaths) of COVID-19, representing 4790 new cases compared with an increase of 5707 the previous day. NY City reported 14,904 positive cases, and 131 deaths. The numbers are still increasing.

However, cases in other states, e.g., Louisiana, may be on the rise.

Update: Two sites I've used for aggregated data are showing different numbers. I normally wait to verify data from WA and NY, but they release data late in the afternoon and WA has been much later since yesterday.

As of 3/25 14:04 ET, Coronavirus Dashboard (https://ncov2019.live/data) has US with 54,428 positive cases and 846 deaths, while Covid Tracking (https://covidtracking.com/data/) has 60,443 positive cases (5,625 hospitalized) and 826 deaths. The sources of data for CD are not clear, whereas CT seems to get it from the state health departments and media releases.

New York released their number earlier today: 30,811 positive cases including 285 deaths and 3,805 hospitalizations. So New York has slightly more than 50% of the positive cases in the US. The number of positive cases has increased by 5146 compared to an increase the previous day of 4790, but less than the increase of 5707 two days ago. So one day, and even two days, doesn't make a trend.

https://covidtracking.com/data/#NY
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/county-county-breakdown-positive-cases (link needs refreshing after loading)

New Jersey has second highest number of cases passing Washington (Wa) and California (Ca). There are many commuters between NJ and NY City, and infected travelers likely arrived at Newark airport (EWR) returning to parts of NJ and NY.

The surge of cases in Louisiana (La) seems to be tied to Mardi Gras celebration in New Orleans, February 25. New Orleans attracts people from all over the country, so folks likely took infections back home, as well as the virus spreading through New Orleans.
https://www.fox8live.com/2020/03/24...used-many-cases-coronavirus-new-orleans-area/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...us-mardi-gras-could-be-blame-doctors-n1167741

 

[Borg]

Has any raw data made available for those who would like to perform analysis? We've all seen the many charts about the spread and charts showing that older people are more susceptible to the virus but I would like to see the data for myself. I'm also hoping that there might be other variables in the data such as blood type as was mentioned in another thread.

EDIT: I should do my searches before posting. Found this right away:
https://catalog.data.gov/dataset?q=covid
Not what I'm looking for though.

 

[Rive]

Good read.
Well, kind of...

 

[Astronuc]

Has any raw data made available for those who would like to perform analysis? We've all seen the many charts about the spread and charts showing that older people are more susceptible to the virus but I would like to see the data for myself. I'm also hoping that there might be other variables in the data such as blood type as was mentioned in another thread.

EDIT: I should do my searches before posting. Found this right away:
https://catalog.data.gov/dataset?q=covid

In the US, one can go to the state health department websites. I've been using the official numbers for Wa and NY from their respective sites. However, one will find that each state reports different age groups. Wa reports by 10 year, e.g., 20-29, while NY reports 18-44. Even then, details of patients are not reported due to respect of privacy.

Each site updates daily but at different times. And formats/details are different.
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/county-county-breakdown-positive-cases
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary.pdf

I've looked at other states, but they do not necessarily report their data, or at least it's not readily accessible.

Hospitalizations is even more difficult to find.

https://covidtracking.com/data/ gives US and each state for each day and historically, but do not separate out male/female or age group. Blood type is not publicly available, and is usually only available select medical/scientist researchers.

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
https://covidtracking.com/data/#NY (click on the state name (link) to get to historical data
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/

Example of NJ: https://covid19.nj.gov/ (dashboard at bottom of page)
Note that Newark Airport spans the east side of Essex and Union Counties. Bergen county is north of Essex county.

And verify with the state health department.

Early on I found the CDC numbers were 24 to 48 hours behind individual states, and apparently, they don't work on weekends.

 

[Borg]

Awesome. Thanks!

 

[chemisttree]

These suppression strategies should be able to stop the spread of the virus so that there are new cases, and reduce the level of cases so that we can go back to a situation where contact tracing is a viable strategy (see the analysis from Tomas Pueyo for more discussion).

I’d like to believe too. But I don’t. Knowing what we know now and as freaked out as everyone is, they still aren’t stopping traffic. And traffic is transmission.
NYC should be on complete lockdown right now but look;

https://webcams.nyctmc.org/google_popup.php?cid=895

NYC should be on complete lockdown RIGHT NOW, Wuhan-style. Less traffic, sure but still not right.

Instead we have a Governor demanding the delivery of 30,000 ventilators and millions of articles of PPE from the federal government. Reminds me of Hitler ordering “phantom armies” to defend Berlin in the dying days of the Reich. My own Lieutenant Governor is offering to sacrifice the older generation so we can save the economy for our grandkids.

I don’t see anybody really doing suppression yet and our leaders appear to be posturing during an election year.

I’m afraid we’re on our own.

 

[WWGD]

I guess re buying provisions, the issue of when you will start digging into your stash. You don't know how long the whole thing will last, so, when do you start eating what you have? Other wisecI guess many will just continue stashing indefinitely. Seems like a topic for a thesis in Operations Research.

 

[PeterDonis]

NYC should be on complete lockdown right now but look

How does a camera looking at a highway, where people are in their cars and not able to infect anyone else, have any relevance to whether or not NYC is in lockdown? Try looking at a webcam of Times Square or some other place where large crowds usually gather.

 

[PeterDonis]

when do you start eating what you have?

When you have to to avoid it going bad. Note that having a "stash" and managing it should not just be something you do during a crisis like this; it should be an ongoing part of general preparedness. Every so often you consume the oldest stuff in your stash and replenish it with new stuff so the average age of your stash stays about the same.

 

[WWGD]

When you have to to avoid it going bad. Note that having a "stash" and managing it should not just be something you do during a crisis like this; it should be an ongoing part of general preparedness. Every so often you consume the oldest stuff in your stash and replenish it with new stuff so the average age of your stash stays about the same.

True, but most of it is non-perishable. Otherwise FIFO makes sense.

 

[PeterDonis]

most of it is non-perishable

If you don't care how long it's been on the shelf, then I would say you don't need to consume it until...you need to consume it. ("Need" as in "there's nothing else to eat".)

I generally do care to some extent how long things have been on the shelf even if they are supposed to be non-perishable. Nothing actually lasts indefinitely (except perhaps Twinkies, which are designed to already be stale when they come from the factory ).

 

[WWGD]

If you don't care how long it's been on the shelf, then I would say you don't need to consume it until...you need to consume it. ("Need" as in "there's nothing else to eat".)

I generally do care to some extent how long things have been on the shelf even if they are supposed to be non-perishable. Nothing actually lasts indefinitely (except perhaps Twinkies, which are designed to already be stale when they come from the factory ).

Twinkies and roaches will fight it out after WW3. I'm betting on the Twinkies ;).

 

[kolleamm]

Doesn't processed honey last for a very long time?

https://zidbits.com/2013/07/does-honey-really-last-forever/

 

[bhobba]

Do you mean pneumonia can be caused by a virus? And in Covid-19 case, it is.

There are two types a pneumonia - viral and bacterial. You may think because bacteria can be fought with antibiotics the viral type is worse, but interestingly recent research shows its a bit more complicated:
https://www.livescience.com/64061-bacterial-pneumonia-heart-health.html

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

New Rochelle was a major Coronavirus cluster two weeks ago. Here's where it stands now.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/new-rochelle-coronavirus/index.html

When New Rochelle, New York, found it had a cluster of people with coronavirus, the state took several drastic measures to stem its spread.
. . .
Those moves hardly seem drastic now. For New Rochelle, a suburb of New York City, the measures have been effective.

Indeed, the containment has been effective in reducing the spread of the virus.

The number of new Coronavirus cases has slowed since the restrictions were put in place about two weeks ago, Mayor Noam Bramson said.

"The data are sufficient to demonstrate that New Rochelle is declining as a percentage of confirmed cases in Westchester (County), which indicates that our early quarantine and social distancing measures have been effective," he [Bramson] said.

Stay-at-home mandates: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-which-states-stay-at-home-order-trnd/index.html

California - March 19, first state.
Colorado - March 26 and going through April 11.
Connecticut - March 23 at 8 p.m
Delaware - March 24 through May 15 or until the "public health threat is eliminated."
Hawaii - March 25 through at least April 30
Idaho - March 25 for 21 days (3 weeks)
Illinois - March 21 through April 7
Indiana - March 24 through April 6
Louisiana - March 23 through April 12
Massachusetts - March 24 until April 7
Michigan - March 24 lasting for at least the next three weeks (21 days)
Minnesota - March 27 through April 10.
New Jersey - March 21, end ??
New Mexico - March 24, end ??
New York - March 22, end ??
Ohio - March 23 through April 6
Oregon - March 23, end ??
Vermont - March 25 until April 15
Washington - March 23 for two weeks (14 days), and maybe longer
West Virginia - March 24, end ??
Wisconsin - March 25 through April 24 or until a superseding order is issued

States not implementing stay-at-home may see their COVID-19 cases rise rapidly, because people will carry the virus across state borders. The virus does not recognize borders.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Coronavirus lockdowns: These states are ordering residents to stay home or shelter in place

Grace Hauck Lorenzo Reyes

USA TODAY

March 25, 2020

[. . .]

Don't panic, the orders are not lockdowns. They allow residents to continue performing tasks essential to the health and safety of family and pets. It's still fine to buy groceries, go for a run, walk the dog, pick up medicine, visit a doctor or get supplies to work from home.

[. . .]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...helter-place-stay-home-state-list/2891193001/

 

[Astronuc]

Washington state has reported their latest numbers March 25, 2020 at 6:20 p.m. (PDT).
Positive cases 2580 including 132 deaths.
Negative cases 31,712

It does appear that actions in Washington have slowed the spread of the virus.

The state health department reports: "The state's notifiable conditions database is currently experiencing a slowdown because of a 10-fold increase in the number of lab reports received."

Each state must collect reports/data from each county.

Earlier today, the numbers for NY were 30811 positive cases including 285 deaths.
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/
This evening, estimates are 32966 including 366 deaths (based on Coronvavirus dashboard), US has 68,141 positive cases including 1032 deaths. I consider that data unverified. NY state (and the 49 other states and various territories) will report again tomorrow afternoon.

Another thing to keep in mind: if one tests negative, it doesn't mean that one may not become infected, and there is a slight chance of a false-negative test. I've seen on commentary by a doctor who has tested positive after treating a patient with a false-negative test.

 

[mfb]

Italy's trend continued for another day. They seem to be on a really good track now.
This is a general trend, there is no region where new case counts would go up rapidly.

Surprisingly, new deaths stabilized at the same time. This could suggest that the new confirmations are going through the backlog already: True new infections went down, they catch up with testing now.

...

So far my March 18 extrapolation is quite good.

 

[peanut]

I'm searching for a study (if any) specific to sign like Koplik's spot in measles that can make Covid-19 easily identifiable. One UK research says lost of taste and smell may be one.

 

[Rive]

I'm searching for a study (if any) specific to sign like Koplik's spot in measles that can make Covid-19 easily identifiable.

There is no such sign. Starting symptoms (if there is any) are more or less the same group as for common flu or various colds. There is no chance to identify it without testing, do not even try or believe anything from any source what claims it is possible.

Ps.: right now, it is 'anosmia' what is the actual holy grail (random link). But, you know, flu also does that occasionally...