- #36
anorlunda
Staff Emeritus
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Here's another source, published in 2016 that uses only history, not projections.mfb said:Well, certainly not for 2020. Only 2012 and 2013 have "(actual)" in the description, that made me think the others might be projections from back then. And indeed: Various websites first had the graph in 2014.
https://www.scottmadden.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Revisiting-the-Duck-Curve_Article.pdf
In this report, ScottMadden analyzes average hourly production data from CAISO from January 2011 through June 2016 to understand if actual results align with the original forecast and what implications may tell us about what to do next. Our analysis confirms the duck curve is real and growing faster than expected.
Regarding EVs, it shows that in some locations, the lowest price power may be mid afternoon, rather than at night. That means that EV charging stations should be located at work. In work parking lots with thousands of cars, that's a big deal.
I had a discussion with the owner of the RV park where I live. He was upgrading service from 3.6 kW per site to 6kW. On the weekends, there is an average of 3 cars/trucks per site. I told him that if even half of of those cars/trucks become EVs in coming years, that the peak power needs of the park would increase to 16.5kW per site. If all become EVs, the peak demand becomes 27kW per site, and perhaps 40kW worst case when even more vehicles come on holidays. And that is not considering the possibility of those huge motor homes becoming EVs.