Get Vaccinated Against the Covid Delta Variant

[atyy]

Eran Segal: "Israel is reporting a 4-fold increase in protection from infection after a 3rd booster shot, compared to an age-gender matched cohort of 2 doses And 5-6 fold increased protection from hospitalization and severe disease 3rd dose now approved for all, tomorrow starting in 40+ y/o"

Israel's vaccine effectiveness for 60+ is about 88% against severe disease caused by the Delta variant. A 5-6 fold increase in protection would bring it to about 98%, which is excellent.

 

[morrobay]

The important figure is how many are gravely ill, not what proportion are vaccinated. Especially compared to how many would be gravely ill if there had been no vaccine.

That figure is 514 hospitalized severally or critically ill. 59% were fully vaccinated. I have no agenda on this, just restating from report that also says the hospitals are being stretched. And there are facts about these patients missing such comorbidities .Sure you can make counterfactual arguments.

 

[atyy]

That figure is 514 hospitalized severally or critically ill. 59% were fully vaccinated. I have no agenda on this, just restating from report that also says the hospitals are being stretched. And there are facts about these patients missing such comorbidities .Sure you can make counterfactual arguments.

@PeroK is correct.

The numbers you cite are from Israel. Most vaccinated serious cases are 60 years old or older, where the vaccination rate is approximately 90%

Let the vaccine reduce severe cases by r. In an unvaccinated population x fraction are severe cases. In a vaccinated population (1-r)x fraction are severe cases. If v of the total population is vaccinated, then the fraction of severe cases due to vaccinated people is z = [v(1-r)x]/[v(1-r)x + (1-v)x]. Solving gives r = [v - z]/[v(1-z)]. Using z = 0.60 as the vaccinated fraction of severe cases, and v = 0.9 as the vaccinated fraction of the 60+ population, gives r ~ 0.8, ie ~80% protection against severe illness by the vaccine.

You can see a more detailed calculation in https://www.covid-datascience.com/p...strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated. Overall, these are consistent with protection against hospitalization or severe disease being estimated by Israel at various times to be at 88%, 91%, 93%. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...ata-preventing-hospitalizations-88-1.10021477

Currently, the Israel dashboard gives among the 60+, that 194.9/100000 serious cases among the unvaccinated, and 20.1/100000 serious cases among the vaccinated, which corresponds to 1-(20.1/194.9) ~ 89% vaccine effectiveness. [Edited after @hutchphd pointed out below that I interchanged the vaccinated and unvaccinated numbers]

See also the points made by Yair Lewis that most recent cases are from cities with vaccination rates above the national average, and hence using the national average may lead to an underestimate of vaccine effectiveness.

Israel's recent vaccine effectiveness estimates are broadly consistent with, but still seem a bit lower than the UK numbers of 91-98% protection against hospitalization. https://assets.publishing.service.g...420/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_33.pdf (p7)

For comorbidties (not all data is from after Delta), see:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...fizer-vaccination-4025-immunocompromised.aspx
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...through-cases-mostly-older-sicker-2021-08-20/

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(21)00367-0/fulltext
BNT162b2 vaccine breakthrough: clinical characteristics of 152 fully vaccinated hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel
Brosh-Nissimov T, Orenbuch-Harroch E, Chowers M, Elbaz M, Nesher L, Stein M, Maor Y, Cohen R, Hussein K, Weinberger M, Zimhony O, Chazan B, Najjar R, Zayyad H, Rahav G, Wiener-Well Y. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2021 Jul 7:S1198-743X(21)00367-0.

 

[hutchphd]

Currently, the Israel dashboard gives among the 60+, that 194.9/100000 serious cases among the vaccinated, and 20.1/100000 serious cases among the unvaccinated, which corresponds to 1-(20.1/194.9) ~ 89% vaccine effectiveness.

My brain shut down an hour ago...are these backwards?

 

[atyy]

My brain shut down an hour ago...are these backwards?

Oops yes, will correct.

 

[Astronuc]

As Covid-19 hospitalizations increase, a greater number of Americans are deciding to get vaccinated
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/20/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

As Covid-19 cases rise among teens, so do vaccinations, CNN analysis finds
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/health/covid-19-teens-vaccinations-rise-analysis-wellness/index.htmlEdit/Update:
AP - Though young and healthy, unvaccinated father dies of COVID
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/young-healthy-unvaccinated-father-dies-covid-79576893

MONTGOMERY, Ala. -- Healthy and in their 30s, Christina and Josh Tidmore figured they were low-risk for COVID-19. With conflicting viewpoints about whether to get vaccinated against the virus filling their social media feeds and social circles, they decided to wait.

On July 20, Josh came home from work with a slight cough initially thought to be sinus trouble. On Aug. 11, he died of COVID-19 at a north Alabama hospital as Christina Tidmore witnessed a doctor and her team frantically try to resuscitate her husband.

Tidmore might have been less susceptible to serious consequences with the original or Alpha variant, but clearly the Delta variant is more severe. "Christina Tidmore also had COVID-19 but recovered. She said she and her husband were not anti-vaccine, but heard conflicting information — including, she said, from doctors." The couple have three children.

I wonder if mentions of the uncertainties about the effects of the vaccine or vaccine efficacy resulted in doubts (or anxiety) to the point of discouraging people form receiving the vaccine.

“Josh was completely healthy, active, not a smoker.” He would have turned 37 on Saturday.

Doctors say they are seeing a spike in cases among young adults and children as the highly contagious delta variant sweeps through unvaccinated populations. Medical officials say there is conflicting information on whether it makes people more severely ill or whether young people are more vulnerable to it, but it's clear the contagiousness means more young people and children are getting sick.
. . .

In the past four weeks, people ages 25 to 49 years, made up 14% of all COVID deaths in the state. And people 50 to 64 years made up about 29%.

The state is also seeing a surge in COVID cases among children, although deaths so far have been rare. The state this week set a record for pediatric hospitalizations with 50 children hospitalized with COVID-19.

In the past four weeks, 6% of cases of COVID-19 in Alabama have been among children under five while 8% have been among children between the ages of five and 17, according to the Alabama Department of Public Health.

 

[nsaspook]

IMO some important results on the effectiveness of virus transmission countermeasures like masks and ventilation.

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0057100

Experimental investigation of indoor aerosol dispersion and accumulation in the context of COVID-19: Effects of masks and ventilation

The results demonstrate that the apparent exhalation filtration efficiency is significantly lower than the ideal filtration efficiency of the mask material. Nevertheless, high-efficiency masks, such as the KN95, still offer substantially higher apparent filtration efficiencies (60% and 46% for R95 and KN95 masks, respectively) than the more commonly used cloth (10%) and surgical masks (12%), and therefore are still the recommended choice in mitigating airborne disease transmission indoors. The results also suggest that, while higher ventilation capacities are required to fully mitigate aerosol build-up, even relatively low air-change rates (2 h−12 h−1) lead to lower aerosol build-up compared to the best performing mask in an unventilated space.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210819124528.htm

A new study is highlighting a need for widespread use of better face masks and the importance of good ventilation to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 indoors.

 

[atyy]

IMO some important results on the effectiveness of virus transmission countermeasures like masks and ventilation.

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0057100

Experimental investigation of indoor aerosol dispersion and accumulation in the context of COVID-19: Effects of masks and ventilation

I don't think the N95 is practical for most people in everyday settings (too uncomfortable)? So I think ventilation is a priority, then preferably a surgical mask (comfortable enough for most people, but expensive) or cloth mask?

A quick read seems to show their conclusions are consistent with https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067728v1, but I'm not sure how to convert between their units of airflow (L/s/person) and the one in the paper you posted (ACH)?

In high risk settings, one would prefer an FFP3 (N99) if available.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636360

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

In USA, the sub-variant Delta AY.3 makes now 12.3 percent of all infections:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tr...ryName=USCDC_2146-DM60904#variant-proportions

What do we know about the AY.3 variant, the Delta mutation that also makes Israel tremble
...
According to reports to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz by Tom Hertz, head of the Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Generics at the Ben Gurion University of the Negev, the Delta variant is showing to create more problems than he imagined: “We are identifying new versions of the Delta variant that feature new family mutations over previous variants. What allows it to spread in this way is a combination of vaccine attenuation over time and traits that allow the variant to evade some of the antibodies”.

Source:
https://then24.com/2021/08/19/what-...elta-mutation-that-also-makes-israel-tremble/

 

[artis]

What the experts think of this? I think it is generally a sound advice and interesting take on the situation.
Would love to hear some comments on the information told from 14:00 about the difference in the IgM and IgA and natural infection vs vaccine.

 

[atyy]

What the experts think of this? I think it is generally a sound advice and interesting take on the situation.
Would love to hear some comments on the information told from 14:00 about the difference in the IgM and IgA and natural infection vs vaccine.

I'm not an expert. But here are my thoughts anyway.
He's usually good, and this discussion is informed and thoughtful.
We discussed this a bit also in another thread.
Here is a link to the article: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58270098: Covid: What’s the best way to top up our immunity?

However, on the minor technical issue of whether the vaccine really doesn't produce IgA at all, there are a couple of dissenting reports. If these are correct, it doesn't negate his discussion, which only depends on the vaccine producing long lasting protection against severe disease, although not against infection.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8011028/ (mostly guessing, no direct evidence)
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.11.434841v1 (seems to have direct evidence)

 

[Astronuc]

What the experts think of this? I think it is generally a sound advice and interesting take on the situation.
Would love to hear some comments on the information told from 14:00 about the difference in the IgM and IgA and natural infection vs vaccine.

Also, not a subject matter expert, but I apply the review process that I use in reading scientific literature on various subjects.

I notice that in the initial 7 minutes Campbell does not discuss age effects. That is, as people age, the immune system is diminished and some develop various co-morbidities. A vaccine helps the body to some extent to develop some immunity, which one does not otherwise have.

At around 6:45, Campbell mentions that the various vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna and AZ act on the spike protein (which can change by mutations/variants), and that seems enough to reduce the severity of infection, but it's one protein, or two, as opposed to the 28 proteins in the virus. At ~7:05, he talks about the lymphocytes, B and T cells.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lymphocyte#T_cells_and_B_cells

Natural immunity helps protect one against the larger number of proteins, which he mentions as greater immunity - assuming one survives the initial infection. Those with compromised immune systems or immunodeficiency are less likely to survive. And then there is the chance of sequela (pl. sequelae), or the long term consequences of viral attack on different areas of the body beyond the respiratory tract. Lung damage is bad enough by itself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequela

Regarding immunodeficiency - "Doctors may check immunoglobulin levels to see if a person has an infection or is protected from getting an infection (is immune to it). Doctors also use immunoglobulin tests to help diagnose immunodeficiencies (when the immune system isn't working as it should). Doctors may suspect an immunodeficiency in a child who gets a lot of infections or unusual infections."

https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/test-immunoglobulins.html
https://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/immunoglobulin-test
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/immunoglobulin-a-deficiency

https://www.thermofisher.com/us/en/...ntibody-methods/immunoglobulin-iga-class.html

https://www.nationaljewish.org/pati...ces/the-difference-between-tests-for-covid-19Regarding natural infection vs vaccine, should one deliberately expose oneself to a natural infection as opposed to a third (or second) booster vaccination? Probably not. We are still learning about breakthrough infections caused by the Delta variant, and perhaps Delta-plus, and Lambda variant. Some fully vaccinated folks with Delta variant are becoming severely ill and some hospitalized, but the numbers appears to be much less than those who are unvaccinated. I'd rather face an infection with a third booster than without. Remember, each infections is chance for damage to lungs, blood system, and other organs, such as the heart. This is also the case with influenza. That is each infection can cause damage to the pulmonary system, which is a good reason to get an influenza vaccination each year.

 

[artis]

Well I guess the vaccine would have been better if it produced IgA just as much as it does IgM, because as far as I'm aware the IgM helps you stay out of trouble but the IgA would truly help to stop the spread as such because due to the leaky nature of this vaccine , vaccinated folks still get infected and it's just a "sandbox" for the virus to play out various tricks where it can then potentially learn to evade the "updated" immune response.

 

[artis]

I'd rather face an infection with a third booster than without.

Yes I get your point , but in case Covid stays around then it becomes the question how regularly will you boost yourself versus just getting out there and living life as usual with all the added risks that come with it.

 

[pinball1970]

Yes I get your point , but in case Covid stays around then it becomes the question how regularly will you boost yourself versus just getting out there and living life as usual with all the added risks that come with it.

Same as seasonal flu jab once per year?

 

[Laroxe]

Also, not a subject matter expert, but I apply the review process that I use in reading scientific literature on various subjects.

I notice that in the initial 7 minutes Campbell does not discuss age effects. That is, as people age, the immune system is diminished and some develop various co-morbidities. A vaccine helps the body to some extent to develop some immunity, which one does not otherwise have.

At around 6:45, Campbell mentions that the various vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna and AZ act on the spike protein (which can change by mutations/variants), and that seems enough to reduce the severity of infection, but it's one protein, or two, as opposed to the 28 proteins in the virus. At ~7:05, he talks about the lymphocytes, B and T cells.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lymphocyte#T_cells_and_B_cells

Natural immunity helps protect one against the larger number of proteins, which he mentions as greater immunity - assuming one survives the initial infection. Those with compromised immune systems or immunodeficiency are less likely to survive. And then there is the chance of sequela (pl. sequelae), or the long term consequences of viral attack on different areas of the body beyond the respiratory tract. Lung damage is bad enough by itself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequela

Regarding immunodeficiency - "Doctors may check immunoglobulin levels to see if a person has an infection or is protected from getting an infection (is immune to it). Doctors also use immunoglobulin tests to help diagnose immunodeficiencies (when the immune system isn't working as it should). Doctors may suspect an immunodeficiency in a child who gets a lot of infections or unusual infections."

https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/test-immunoglobulins.html
https://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/immunoglobulin-test
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/immunoglobulin-a-deficiency

https://www.thermofisher.com/us/en/...ntibody-methods/immunoglobulin-iga-class.html

https://www.nationaljewish.org/pati...ces/the-difference-between-tests-for-covid-19Regarding natural infection vs vaccine, should one deliberately expose oneself to a natural infection as opposed to a third (or second) booster vaccination? Probably not. We are still learning about breakthrough infections caused by the Delta variant, and perhaps Delta-plus, and Lambda variant. Some fully vaccinated folks with Delta variant are becoming severely ill and some hospitalized, but the numbers appears to be much less than those who are unvaccinated. I'd rather face an infection with a third booster than without. Remember, each infections is chance for damage to lungs, blood system, and other organs, such as the heart. This is also the case with influenza. That is each infection can cause damage to the pulmonary system, which is a good reason to get an influenza vaccination each year.

Yes, it is confusing that age isn't mentioned, in the UK people ages 75 and older, despite representing only around 0.5% of new positive tests, account for around 45% of all hospital admissions and half of all deaths. This was of course the group offered the vaccine first and while the antibody response was high it might be expected to be falling now. Its perhaps the fact that at this age people are generally less able to tolerate significant health challenges.

The vaccines don't really induce antibodies against the whole spike protein, dendric cells chop the protein up and present a number of antigens to the immune cells, we actually produce a number of different antibodies, its suggested that some variants can evade some of these antibodies, but not all of them. Its true that natural infection will present many more antigens to the immune system, which might suggest a broader range of antibodies, but remember the main reason the spike was the vaccine target was that the antibodies targeting these antigens were the only ones that had a significant effect. We also have to consider that this virus actually attacks the structures responsible for developing immunity, it's this ability that is the principal cause of very severe illness and death. Even among the recovered, there are quite a few people who fail to develop an appropriate immune response, vaccines are more reliable. Its true that high levels of antibodies offer significant protection from infection, but people get caught up in the figures given for effectiveness. The reality is that there is no single figure to represent vaccine effectiveness antibody levels increase at different rates following 1st and 2nd vaccination, they continue to rise for several weeks after the 2nd and then start to decline quite quickly. We have usually lost a significant proportion by around 6 months, a booster at this point would clearly offer enhanced protection, but again this would be time limited.

This is why attention has shifted to the B and T cell response, these respond to infection by cutting short the time needed for an effective immune response. The virus is recognised very quickly, the variants don't change this and as the B cells reproduce and start producing antibodies, the process of refining these antibodies continues increasing their specificity to the infecting variant. So people can develop the infection, though even this is less likely because of the immediate T cell responses, but the illness is generally shorter and milder.

I've included a link to the current UK data which shows that the rate of infection remains high but the severity of infections and the numbers of deaths are very different. The latest population screening suggests that more than 90% of the population have antibodies at some level. I think the fact that this virus seems to be particularly promiscuous in the various cells it infects and the various species that can transmit it, we can forget the idea of herd immunity, though we can still make it manageable.

I saw some work suggesting that giving the AZ vaccine, which uses a viral vector, intranasally could be used as a booster while enhancing humoral immunity. I'll try to find the link.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...icles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths

 

[Astronuc]

More people hospitalized and more patients in ICU, many younger than 60 or 65.
https://theconversation.com/were-se...s-rise-that-affects-the-whole-hospital-165966

The need for separate wards for infectious diseases like SARS-Cov-2 and use of ICUs for COVID-19 patients puts a burden on any hospital, especially those at which ICUs fill to capacity. And it puts staff at risk.

The International Council of Nurses’ latest analysis shows the number of nurses who have died after contracting COVID-19 globally is greater than 2,200 – more than any other health-care worker. This data are from earlier this year, so we expect those figures to have risen since then.

I guess the number is just nurses, but I suspect to actual number to be higher.

In the US alone, Kaiser Health News reports "More Than 3,600 US Health Workers Died in Covid’s First Year"
https://khn.org/news/article/us-health-workers-deaths-covid-lost-on-the-frontline/

My doctor told me the other day that one patient, older than 65 decided not to get the vaccine, because the patient didn't believe in it and that it was not FDA approved (it was under EUA). Then the patient, with a number of health issue that put the person at risk for complication due to COVID-19 did test positive. The doctor arranged a monoclonal antibody treatment (the was EUA by FDA).
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...izes-monoclonal-antibodies-treatment-covid-19
The monoclonal antibody treatment is more than 10 times the cost of the vaccine, which has been available for 7 months, so the patient could have received a vaccine and been fully vaccinated 6 months ago.

I read one story where a cancer patient was discharged from hospital and had to complete treatment at home because the hospital had to use the space for treatment of COVID-19 patients, most of whom chose to remain unvaccinated.

 

[Laroxe]

I don't think the N95 is practical for most people in everyday settings (too uncomfortable)? So I think ventilation is a priority, then preferably a surgical mask (comfortable enough for most people, but expensive) or cloth mask?

A quick read seems to show their conclusions are consistent with https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067728v1, but I'm not sure how to convert between their units of airflow (L/s/person) and the one in the paper you posted (ACH)?

In high risk settings, one would prefer an FFP3 (N99) if available.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636360

Really, I don't think the recommendation to wear masks is based on their ability to filter out the virus, that's an issue for people working in high risk environments. It's probably better to think of it rather like social distancing. Staying the recommended, 2 meters apart won't protect someone, but it does greatly reduce the risk, simply because of the way the airflow affects the dispersion of droplets / virus following exhalation. In the same way, simple masks alter the airflow, some droplets will be trapped but its the fact that exhaled air is directed into several streams and has to follow routes around the mask. This reduces the force and direction of exhaled air, its rather like increasing the distance, and by combining different strategies we can increase the cumulative risk reduction. Like other strategies it's not about avoidance, that is very difficult to achieve, it's about reducing the amount of exposure to the virus and not receiving a dose sufficient to cause infection. In fact, multiple small exposures over time might be useful to establish and maintain some immunity. The recommendation for simple masks should mean more people being willing to wear them, its a trivial requirement in terms of comfort or inconvenience, but somehow it's become a symbol of allegiance, but I'll avoid what I think this might be too.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Some humour - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-zealand-makes-hay-with-covid-ministers-gaffe

 

[Astronuc]

A 41-year-old Florida teacher whose doctor had advised her against getting vaccinated has died of COVID-19 complications after she was forced to return to in-person teaching where there was no mask mandate, local outlets say.

Kelly Peterson was not vaccinated against the Coronavirus because she had leukemia and her doctor advised against getting the shot in her already weakened state, her sister, Christin, told KTVU.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-florida-teacher-who-couldnt-get-vaccinated-because-of-her-cancer-treatment-died-of-covid-19-her-union-says-she-caught-it-from-her-classroom-which-had-no-mask-mandate/ar-AANJ8WH

APNews (Aug 24) - The Latest: COVID hospitalizations surge in Washington state
https://apnews.com/article/business...rus-pandemic-10c81f06b6b8429c4cb276f400539866

OLYMPIA, Wash, — Washington state health officials say the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients is doubling every 18 to 19 days in the state.

Dr. Umair Shah is the state secretary of health and said Wednesday that the surge driven by the delta variant of the Coronavirus has “stressed, stretched and strained” hospital resources across the state,.

One hospital official said hospitals throughout the state are facing their highest levels of occupancy ever, and the impact has been especially hard on regional and rural hospitals where there are no critical care beds left.

According to the state Department of Health, 1,346 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 on Tuesday. There have been more than 488,000 confirmed Coronavirus infections in Washington state during the pandemic, and 6,448 deaths related to COVID-19.

New NY governor adds 12,000 deaths to publicized COVID-19 tally
https://apnews.com/article/andrew-cuomo-health-coronavirus-pandemic-7312b49695e726eda8d59848e82271c5

The 'official' count of Covid-19 mortality today is 43432. The new governor of NY State is adding 12,000 to that number for a total of 55,432 deaths. This is more in line with the number the NY Times has been publishing, which as of today is 53,691 deaths. I presume it will take some time to get an 'accurate' number, from where I don't know.

The higher number is not entirely new. Federal health officials and some academic institutions tracking COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have been using the higher tally for many months because of known gaps in the data Cuomo had been choosing to publicize.

But Hochul, who was lieutenant governor before being propelled to the state’s highest office, said it is vital to be fully transparent about the numbers.

“There’s a lot of things that weren’t happening, and I’m going to make them happen,” Hochul said Wednesday on MSNBC. “Transparency will be the hallmark of my administration.”

The Associated Press first reported in July on the large discrepancy between the figures publicized by the Cuomo administration and numbers the state was reporting to the CDC.

The count used by Cuomo in his news media briefings and on the state’s COVID-19 fatality tracker included only laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported through a state system that collects data from hospitals, nursing homes and adult care facilities.

The last paragraph states what I suspected. The cases that have been reported are confirmed cases, and the cases being added to the total are probable.

. . . the tally excluded people who died at home, in hospice, in prisons or at state-run homes for people with disabilities. It also excluded people who doctors believed died of COVID-19 but never got a positive test to confirm the diagnosis. Such tests were scarce in the initial months of the pandemic, when hundreds of New Yorkers were dying each day.

From the NY State official site
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n#/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities

I did some screen captures to show the 'offical' tally, and the soon to be 'official' tally.

The way the page is set up, I haven't discovered how to capture each table on the screen.

 

[atyy]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-florida-teacher-who-couldnt-get-vaccinated-because-of-her-cancer-treatment-died-of-covid-19-her-union-says-she-caught-it-from-her-classroom-which-had-no-mask-mandate/ar-AANJ8WH

"Kelly Peterson was not vaccinated against the Coronavirus because she had leukemia and her doctor advised against getting the shot in her already weakened state, her sister, Christin, told KTVU."

While the statement may be technically true, it may lead some to think they shouldn't get vaccinated because of their weakened state. In fact, vaccination is urgent and important for such people. The reason one may receive advice to delay vaccination is that certain medications suppress the effectiveness of vaccination. So it may be advantageous to wait for a point between medication doses to try to maximize the effect of vaccination.

Here are examples of recommendations for people with leukemia to get vaccinated. In the USA, they may be among groups for whom a third dose (considered part of the primary series for these patients, so technically not a booster) is recommended.

https://lls.org/who-we-are/covid-19-vaccines-faq-patients-and-caregivers "Get Vaccinated, Act Unvaccinated"
https://bloodcancer.org.uk/support-for-you/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-vaccine-blood-cancer/
https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi...r-patients-immunocompromised-immunosuppressed
https://www.leukaemia.org.au/covid-19-vaccinations/

 

[atyy]

Michael Baym points out that this US airline still calls it the B.1.617.2 variant.

https://news.delta.com/ed-bastian-memo-covid-19-update
"While we are grateful for the progress we’ve made, the most recent virus variants make it clear that more work remains ahead. The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis, and one of the most dangerous challenges our world has faced in this lifetime. Over the past few weeks, the fight has changed with the rise of the B.1.617.2 variant – a very aggressive form of the virus. Our Chief Health Officer, Dr. Henry Ting, describes the variant as a “heat-seeking missile” that transmits predominantly through the unvaccinated community."

 

[Astronuc]

The United States now has more than 100,000 people hospitalized with Coronavirus across the country for the first time since January, according to a new report.

On Thursday, The Washington Post noted that hospitalization rates are highest in the southeastern United States, including Florida, where 17,000 people are hospitalized, and Texas, where another 14,000 are receiving care.

Citing its own Coronavirus database, the Post reported 2,100 children have been hospitalized nationally this month, topping 2,000 for the first time since August 2020.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...-100k-covid-19-hospitalizations-threshold-for

 

[artis]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Looking at the upper general statistical graphs of both daily new cases and daily deaths it seems that the third wave that is happening now is less severe in terms of deaths and also somewhat smaller compared to daily new cases, it also seems that we might be at the very peak of the wave as of now, also if you compare to the previous waves you can see with a naked eye that the climb up until this point as of this day was less steep than the previous climbs.

Unless this God damn virus takes another successful mutation I might speculate that we should be getting better from here on.

 

[jim mcnamara]

@artis https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ shows the US getting worse in terms of both deaths and new cases. Try looking at the 7 day running average for deaths on Jul 1 2021 == 242 deaths vs today Aug 8 2021 == 921 deaths.

Death peaks generally lag behind new case peaks by 14-30 days because really sick people go to the ICU (if there is a bed available). This helps a majority of them recover.

But the world as a whole is showing a downward trend in new cases.

 

[Astronuc]

The Hill reports that "New study finds 1 in 3 Americans were infected with Coronavirus by the end of 2020"
https://thehill.com/changing-americ...ne-in-three-americans-had-covid-19-by-the-end

"Researchers estimate that nearly one-third of the U.S. population, or 103 million Americans, got COVID-19 last year."
"Nearly half the residents of Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami and New York City were likely infected in 2020, according to a new analysis."

While official numbers report nearly 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 last year, according to The COVID Tracking Project, researchers estimate that nearly one-third of the U.S. population, 31 percent or 103 million Americans, had COVID-19 at some point last year.

Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health researchers determined that fewer than one-quarter, 22 percent, confirmed their positive diagnosis for public health reports through testing, according to a news release by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

In the upper Midwest and Mississippi valley, including the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, nearly two-thirds, 60 percent, of the population was estimated to have had COVID-19 in 2020. Meanwhile, nearly half the residents of Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami and New York City (48 percent, 52 percent, 42 percent and 44 percent, respectively) were likely infected in 2020, according to the study published in the journal Nature.

I'm guessing that the virus was mostly the Alpha variant last year. I wonder how many who had it then now got the Delta variant.

I'm somewhat skeptical about the estimates given that a lot of testing has been done. In New York, as of yesterday, there were 64,592,996 tests (more than 3x state population of 19.45 million est.) for SARS-Cov-2 of which 2,236,634 were positive. Some people have apparently been tested multiple times.

But then, Delta is just about everywhere - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/29/us/delta-variant-risk-map.html

Down in Florida, Lisa Steadman spent more than a week inside Winter Haven Hospital battling COVID-19. https://www.yahoo.com/news/she-had-covid-florida-hospital-174931437.html

She survived.

But when Ms Steadman returned home after eight days in the hospital, on Aug. 18, she found her husband Ron dead in their bedroom. According to WFLA, the couple’s dogs were near starved of food and water. Ron’s doctor told her that her husband had died from COVID-related complications, Fox 13 reported.

"Ron Steadman, 55, had tested positive for the novel Coronavirus before his wife got her own result. He was treated at a walk-in clinic and sent home with meds because “he wasn’t in distress or anything. It was just like he had a bad cold,” Steadman told WFLA NewsChannel 8."

So nobody checked on this guy for a week?! While his wife was in hospital?!

 

[Astronuc]

Newsweek reports, "Central Florida Hospitals Forced to Order Mobile Morgues to Deal With COVID Death Overflow" - https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/central-florida-hospitals-forced-to-order-mobile-morgues-to-deal-with-covid-death-overflow/ar-AANPcaG

For the first time during the Coronavirus pandemic, Advent Health has had to order 14 portable morgues to help make room for an additional 168 bodies.
. . . .
On Thursday, Florida reported its largest single-day increase in the death total, 901, since the pandemic began. On average, the state is reporting 227 COVID-19 deaths a day.

Across the state, more than 3,600 people with COVID-19 are occupying beds in intensive care units—the second-highest total in the country.

The Delta variant of the virus, which has fueled the increase in hospitalizations and deaths, has also caused a shift in infected populations.

Doctors across the U.S. have reported they are seeing higher numbers of young people in their hospitals, and the number of pediatric cases is the highest in Florida.

Daily News reports, "Contracting and beating COVID provides better protection against delta variant than Pfizer shot, new research shows"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/contracting-and-beating-covid-provides-better-protection-against-delta-variant-than-pfizer-shot-new-research-shows/ar-AANOSsi

Catching and beating COVID-19 during one of the initial waves of the global health pandemic appears to provide more protection against the highly-contagious delta variant than both doses of the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech.

The largest real-world analysis comparing natural immunity and the protection provided by Coronavirus vaccines revealed those who have received both jabs of Pfizer’s two-stick shot were almost six-fold more likely to contract a delta infection and seven-fold more likely to show symptoms and become hospitalized than those who have already recovered from COVID.

The paper, by researchers in Israel, also stands in contrast to past reports suggesting those who have been vaccinated are just as protected from the virus as those who have been infected with it.

 

[atyy]

Daily News reports, "Contracting and beating COVID provides better protection against delta variant than Pfizer shot, new research shows"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/contracting-and-beating-covid-provides-better-protection-against-delta-variant-than-pfizer-shot-new-research-shows/ar-AANOSsi

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coro...ction-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf
Impact of Delta on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections
in the UK
Koen B. Pouwels, Emma Pritchard, Philippa C. Matthews, Nicole Stoesser, David W. Eyre, Karina-Doris Vihta, Thomas House, Jodie Hay, John I Bell, John N Newton, Jeremy Farrar, Derrick Crook, Duncan Cook, Emma Rourke, Ruth Studley, Tim Peto, Ian Diamond, A. Sarah Walker and the COVID-19 Infection Survey Team
"In the Delta-dominant period ... There was no evidence that the effectiveness of two ChAdOx1 vaccinations 14 days previously in preventing new PCR-positives differed from the protection afforded by previous natural infection without vaccination (heterogeneity p=0.33), whereas two BNT162b2 vaccinations afforded greater protection (p=0.04)."

 

[artis]

Well truth be told just as with all science only time will settle down some of the rather high unknown probabilities as of now.
My own opinion is that a mild to medium infection of Covid should provide a slightly better protection than vaccination, at least for many other viruses those who survive an infection in most cases develop immunity for life. Tick encephalitis is one such case, where a vaccine provides you on average for some 6-8 years and then needs a re-vaccination. Covid being a different virus performs differently although given it's now just under 2 years since this began and about a year for the mainstream stuff I'd say it's too early to see how long on average the immunity in those who were infected will last.

As for the infected undercount it might be true I think, at least here in my country I personally know a dozen of folks who were either asymptomatic or had a very easy case and they never got tested, some of them later on saw antibodies in blood, some of whom never even knew they were infected.
Here the drive to not get tested for those that have a light case is that they mostly want to avoid all the paperwork and regulation that comes with self quarantine.
So if the world situation is anything like the local one I'd say the true Covid infected numbers might be as twice as high as the one on the graphs. Maybe even more.

Truth be told from my own small little statistic that I have gathered from those that I know and myself including I could say that Covid unlike the yearly flu is a strange virus, it has a wildly varying severity across even the same age groups. I mean some get severe pneumonia from it while most get just a small cough or runny nose or nothing but small temp. Quite a few don't feel anything at all. I have yet to meet a person who would have been infected with the yearly flu and not feel or experience anything...

@jim mcnamara I was thinking the world as a whole not just US, I think to get the overall picture one cannot look at a specific country because different countries have different trends , the US for example has a lot of obesity and a large percentage of folks with health problems which is a influential factor most likely if not in overall infections then surely in deaths.

 

[Astronuc]

An unvaccinated primary-school teacher in Marin County, California, spread COVID-19 to 26 other people, including 50% of their classroom, after spending two days sick with the Coronavirus at school while not always masking, according to a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-unvaccinated-teacher-spread-covid-to-50-of-classroom-2021-8

On a completely different matter,

A Georgia police officer who frequently posted anti-vaxx messages on Facebook and took an anti-parasitic drug instead of a vaccine has died of COVID-19.

https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-anti-vaxx-cop-took-ivermectin-dies-of-covid-19-2021-8

Ivermectin is used as a deworming medicine in livestock, and is not approved for use in humans.

Manning also wrote on Facebook that he had taken ivermectin himself, and criticized Facebook for disciplining him for spreading misinformation, The Independent reported.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said the drug does not help prevent or treat coronavirus, and this week issued a health advisory detailing an increase in severe illness caused by taking ivermectin.

Calls to US poison control centers about ivermectin exposures increased five-fold from the pre-pandemic baseline, with an especially sharp rise in July 2021, a CDC report said.

CDC Warning/Advisory - Rapid Increase in Ivermectin Prescriptions and Reports of Severe Illness Associated with Use of Products Containing Ivermectin to Prevent or Treat COVID-19
https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2021/pdf/CDC_HAN_449.pdf

Do not take unapproved medications recommended by crackpots on social media. Consult one's doctor or a doctor. On the other hand, there are quack doctors who do advise patients/people to take the medication.

 

[Astronuc]

Memorial Hermann announced Monday that due to the continued COVID-19 surge and the strain on the hospital system’s operations, it was closing three of its 24-hour emergency rooms at 5 p.m. Monday evening until further notice.

The three ERs affected at the Memorial Hermann Convenient Care Centers in Kingwood, Spring and Sienna.

“Patients who are currently receiving care inside any of these Emergency Rooms will be safely discharged or transferred to another Memorial Hermann facility. Members of our community who require emergent care should proceed to another nearby Emergency Center for assistance,” the brief statement from the Memorial Hermann Media Relations team said.

http://katytimes.com/stories/memorial-hermann-closes-3-stand-alone-ers-in-greater-houston,4650

As the delta variant continues to prompt increasing hospitalizations, hospitals throughout Greater Houston, including those in the Katy area have stated that staff are exhausted and capacity at hospitals is short or nonexistent.

 

[Astronuc]

In three towns in rural Rogue Valley, Oregon, all three ICU's are 100% full of COVID-19 patients, according to staff.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-through-rural-southern-oregon-like-a-buzzsaw

In contrast to earlier phases of the pandemic, the Asante hospitals are now treating COVID-19 patients in their 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s, according to Blumhardt.

"I've been an ICU nurse for ten years. I've never seen anything like this," McCoy says. "It's really terrible seeing these patients who can't breathe. That is a very difficult thing to watch. It's really terrifying for them and it's really difficult for us to see day in and day out."

"We admit nine unvaccinated to every one vaccinated individual. So clearly the vaccine is protecting against hospital admission," he [ICU Medical Director Dr. Michael Blumhardt] says.

Jackson County is recording record numbers of COVID infections. Within weeks, many of those people may worsen and need hospital care. Unfortunately, a new forecast from Oregon Health and Science University predicts that by Labor Day, the state will face a shortfall of 400 to 500 staffed hospital beds.

Blumhardt says smaller hospitals in Oregon have been trying to transfer their sickest patients to Asante, but so far they've had to turn away around 200 people because they don't have the beds, or the staff.

 

[Jarvis323]

Ivermectin is used as a deworming medicine in livestock, and is not approved for use in humans.

That's not exactly true. Ivermectin has been FDA approved as an anti-parasitic drug for humans since the late 80's. It was found to have in vitro antiviral properties against SARS-CoV-2, but clinical trials show wildly different results with some suggesting incredible efficacy and others showing little or no effect. Those arguing in favor of Ivermectin will say that results vary so wildly because of the importance of early treatment and various other factors like combination with other drugs or protocols. The CDCs assessment is that

currently insufficient data to recommend ivermectin for treatment of COVID-19

https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2021/pdf/CDC_HAN_449.pdf

Still, in several countries besides the US, it has been embraced as a treatment for Covid-19, especially in countries with less access to health care and expensive treatments, and where Ivermectin is a commonly used and very cheap drug already. For example, in India the government sent out Covid-19 treatment kits to people's homes in advance, which include Ivermectin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin#Pharmacokinetics

Even if ivermectin had some efficacy, it would not seem to be a big deal that a man who took ivermectin died of Covid. Remdesivir, for example, is widely used and appears to have no effect on mortality at all.

 

[Astronuc]

That's not exactly true. Ivermectin has been FDA approved as an anti-parasitic drug for humans since the late 80's.

I should have qualified my comment. It is not approved for the treatment of SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19), and certainly not at the doses one typically finds in applications to livestock. The FDA has certainly not approved using Ivermectin from the local "Feed and Seed" distributor or the local veterinarian like some are apparently doing.

Ivermectin tablets are approved at very specific doses for some parasitic worms in humans, as well as topical treatments for head lice and skin conditions like rosacea.
https://ldh.la.gov/index.cfm/newsroom/detail/6291

Ivermectin is a medication that is approved by FDA in oral formulations to treat onchocerciasis (river blindness) and intestinal strongyloidiasis. Topical formulations are used to treat head lice and rosacea. Ivermectin is also used in veterinary applications to prevent or treat internal and external parasitic infections in animals. When used in appropriate doses for approved indications, ivermectin is generally well tolerated.

https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2021/han00449.asp

 

[artis]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/cdc...7-YS93bNIeArHrn6rMyRDfPNq0AXXtowfXR3mLV9HZMQ4I guess if we are to make he vaccines a regular thing (seasonal) then we should probably tweak them , the question is how hard it is to do so.
Basically as of now it seems that for those that have been vaccinated and still got the delta the main and only use of the vaccine was to introduce their bodies to "what is about to come" and in such a way "train" the immune system to develop immunity which then helps to "ride out" the disease easier.

can somebody give a more detailed cause for what is the main difficulty in developing a newer vaccine that can match the current strain better? I mean we do know the mutation we have it in our labs as we speak.