Japan Earthquake: Political Aspects

[zapperzero]

All fine and dandy ,but when a statistically predictable larger than average nuclear disaster occurs ,how do you tell the 1,000,000 victims this is acceptable?

Pah. Victims. If zero deaths is the goal, we start by forbidding personal automobiles and mandating rail travel for passengers between adjacent cities, not by closing the few NPPs in existence. Yes, even with the horrible toll of Chernobyl and the still unknown toll of Fukushima AND ten times the release at Chernobyl in an as-yet un-happened accident taken into account.

OTOH, the potential for economic damage from an NPP is effectively unbounded. It is no wonder that NPPs are never insured by private companies. So deciding whether to grant a license or extension is a matter of who wins the political debate - generally, the few, coordinated and monied will win and we will end up with more unsafe NPP designs in the long term. Classic tragedy of the commons case, just as with coal power.

Maybe the thing to do is to move the debate out of the political and into the technical realm.

We could, for instance, require operators to prove that their NPP will not release more than X amount of radioactive substances unless it is hit by a Tunguska-sized meteorite.

Just like that: is it possible? Y/N

Prove N, you get a license or extension. Fail to prove N, you get shut down. Sure, this will result in licenses being withdrawn for most/all NPPs in existence. But it would not be the end of nuclear power, as I am sure that more sane designs can be found and implemented rather quickly.

If we set a "maximum possible emissions" design criterion, then it all becomes simple: at most y hectares of land compromised forever, at most z years of human life lost if evacuation also fails for some reason. Everyone can then easily decide what insurance should cost, this can be factored into the cost of electricity produced and all is well and above-board, unlike now.

 

[zapperzero]

All in all, we definitely have here either a flaw in IC design, or operator error. Or both.

Be very wary of blanket conclusions. I would like nothing better, if I was TEPCO, than to blame this whole thing on low-level employees. Alternatively, the story can easily become "we bought the best American technology, how were we to know it was flawed?".

 

[Caniche]

Maybe the thing to do is to move the debate out of the political and into the technical realm.

We could, for instance, require operators to prove that their NPP will not release more than X amount of radioactive substances unless it is hit by a Tunguska-sized meteorite.

Just like that: is it possible? Y/N

Not really ,cos when things go tits up ,acceptable limits tend to get altered

Everyone can then easily decide what insurance should cost, this can be factored into the cost of electricity produced and all is well and above-board, unlike now.

Again ,not really cos that is not how the insurance industry operates . The commonly held perception of shared risk does not impact upon the corporate manifest of profit/bonus/ dividend maximisation. So clearly "everyone " does not decide what insurance should cost,not quite "above board" is it?You devil you

 

[nikkkom]

Be very wary of blanket conclusions. I would like nothing better, if I was TEPCO, than to blame this whole thing on low-level employees. Alternatively, the story can easily become "we bought the best American technology, how were we to know it was flawed?".

What are your conclusions on this whole IC debacle, then? Things gone horribly wrong, yet no one is to blame? This position sounds rather Shuttle-Columbia-ish to me :(

 

[zapperzero]

J'accuse

What are your conclusions on this whole IC debacle, then? Things gone horribly wrong, yet no one is to blame? This position sounds rather Shuttle-Columbia-ish to me :(

I never said or implied that. So far, I have formed the following opinions, listed here along with whom I suppose fingers should be pointed at:

0. The government of Japan and more specifically MEXT and NISA showed a grave lack of responsibility in the lead-up to, during and after the accident. They also exhibit all the signs of regulator capture. This part of the responsibility is, unfortunately, shared by the entire people of Japan.
1. grave errors in plant siting and site preparation (TEPCO, NISA)
2. grave errors in plant design and construction, esp. placement of EDGs but other things as well (by TEPCO, GE, NISA)
3. criminal negligence wrt tsunami defenses (TEPCO)
4. wrong SAMGs (TEPCO, GE, NISA)
5. possible failure to properly install, maintain and/or operate safety-critical equipment such as hydrogen recombiners and ICs (TEPCO, NISA)
6. possible operator errors in the initial phase of the accident (TEPCO, for not providing proper training/staffing, see 5 above)
7. Weak, wrong and un-coordinated first response, disastrous lack of general and specific disaster preparedness (J-gov in its entirety, prefectural government, TEPCO)

 

[tsutsuji]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20111216p2a00m0na002000c.html Undercover journalist working at Daiichi says worker safety is not being adequately monitored and that "many Hitachi and Toshiba engineers that have presented new solutions have been told there is simply no money to try them".

 

[nikkkom]

0. The government of Japan and more specifically MEXT and NISA showed a grave lack of responsibility in the lead-up to, during and after the accident. They also exhibit all the signs of regulator capture. This part of the responsibility is, unfortunately, shared by the entire people of Japan.
1. grave errors in plant siting and site preparation (TEPCO, NISA)
2. grave errors in plant design and construction, esp. placement of EDGs but other things as well (by TEPCO, GE, NISA)
3. criminal negligence wrt tsunami defenses (TEPCO)
4. wrong SAMGs (TEPCO, GE, NISA)
5. possible failure to properly install, maintain and/or operate safety-critical equipment such as hydrogen recombiners and ICs (TEPCO, NISA)
6. possible operator errors in the initial phase of the accident (TEPCO, for not providing proper training/staffing, see 5 above)
7. Weak, wrong and un-coordinated first response, disastrous lack of general and specific disaster preparedness (J-gov in its entirety, prefectural government, TEPCO)

Lets see what is probably applicable to other countries and needs fixing.

0. This is an always present danger. Go to allthingsnuclear.org - it has a few examples of NRC not doing its job. Even after F1, NRC's response seems to be slow. For one, they propose that US NPPs must increase their SBO coping time from 4 to 8 hours - IOW, they propose to uprate them to... F1-like standards (!) - F1 Unit 1 was (supposed to be) able to survive 8 hour SBO using IC. It must be a bad joke.

1,2. I have no idea how widespread is this.

3. Probably not unique. Fort Calhoun's sand bags don't instill much confidence either. And note that TEPCO for decades successfully shrugged off all suggestions about F1 being vulnerable to large tsunami. No reason to believe in other countries it (shrugging off) can't be done as easily too.

4/5/6. This can't be fixed. The only way to REALLY test emergency procedures and equipment is to have a REAL emergency. Anything less (such as drills) can be - and was! - successfully cheated. It (cheating) will happen again.

7. Hoping that ordinary operators will be able to always do the right thing under disaster conditions was (again - Chernobyl was the same) proven wrong. Probably can be mitigated by having specially trained and equipped nuclear disaster response teams on standby.

 

[steve olsen]

In your posts you generally support a view that things in nuclear industry are okay in general. No big problems exist in NPPs operations and management wrt safety. Chernobul? Irrelevant, Russians were very careless - but we are much better than they. Fukushima? It was a big earthquake + "once in 1000 years tsunami", which exceeded what they were designing for. Looks like this (expected level of tsunami) was a mistake. Japanese were not well prepared, but we are much better than they.

That is your position, and I think it is a wrong position. US nuclear industry is certainly better wrt safety than Russians were, and is possibly somewhat better than Japanese, but not by a large margin. Instead of claiming that everything is hunky-dory, it should take a deep hard look into every detail of Fukushima lesson.

If US nuclear industry won't do it, and God forbid, there will be a meltdown in CONUS in the next 10-20 years, US nuclear power generation can kiss its *** goodbye.

Well said, in fact I believe that with an average of 1 pretty darn large nuclear accident every year (which cannot be covered up completely) nuke is proven to be too strong for human, too dangerous for the planet. We MUST find a better way to boil water.

 

[steve olsen]

Great line, I really had to laugh out loud. Both hilarious and depressing.



I agree, trust is gone, for me, too. I was totally pro-nuke before Fukushima, but now I'm against it.
But overall I'd say that damn tsunami probably chose the one plant out of all those 500 stations in service worldwide which was actually the most vulnerable against such an attack. Pretty bad luck I'd say. And keep in mind that the whole station was from the same generation as Chernobyl and even TMI.
(By the way, we had three major accidents in civil NPPs and all of them happened in Units designed and built in the late sixties...)

They are getting old, start retiring them first, then the rest, and stop all new ones. It is clearcut. Nuke guys going to have to learn a new skill.

 

[tsutsuji]

Tepco is providing a translation of the abstract at the top of the internal investigation interim report:

Fukushima Daiichi unit 1, March 12:

Since it was necessary to take into account the status of local personnel evacuation, this PCV venting was implemented after confirming the evacuation of the area’s residents.

http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/111202e13.pdf page 8/16

There is more in the following Chugoku Shinbun article, among other paragraphs which are exactly the same as those translated above :
(...)
At Futaba Hospital on the morning of March 12th, hospital employees went to the town hall requesting evacuation support. The patients that were able to walk by their own strength were evacuated on the same day, but the bus(es) transporting the 130 bedridden patients arrived on March 14th and 15th.

 

[jim hardy]

It is clearcut. Nuke guys going to have to learn a new skill.

It is clearcut. Mankind's going to have to reduce his numbers.

 

[steve olsen]

It is clearcut. Mankind's going to have to reduce his numbers.

Yeah, I think you are right, as much as the big Govs want a larger taxable base (more people) at some point "sustainable" is going to apply to population, things didn't seem quite so crazy at 4 Billion people.

It is amazing that, that type of discussion is rarely heard. too much fiat money, and too much humans, chasing increasingly limited supplies in an increasingly polluted environment.

 

[nikkkom]

Yeah, I think you are right, as much as the big Govs want a larger taxable base (more people) at some point "sustainable" is going to apply to population, things didn't seem quite so crazy at 4 Billion people.

More people not only generate more tax money, they also consume more tax money.

I don't see any particular increase of "craziness" since we went from 4bn to 7bn. Moreover, growth seems to be leveling off.

It is amazing that, that type of discussion is rarely heard. too much fiat money, and too much humans, chasing increasingly limited supplies in an increasingly polluted environment.

I don't see pollution increase. The emission regulations are getting tighter, monitoring becomes more thorough and accessible.

And finally, this particular branch of discussion is going in an off-topic direction.

 

[steve olsen]

More people not only generate more tax money, they also consume more tax money.

I don't see any particular increase of "craziness" since we went from 4bn to 7bn. Moreover, growth seems to be leveling off.



I don't see pollution increase. The emission regulations are getting tighter, monitoring becomes more thorough and accessible.

And finally, this particular branch of discussion is going in an off-topic direction.

Pollution in China
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/pollution-in-china.html

I don't see any particular increase of "craziness" since we went from 4bn to 7bn. Moreover, growth seems to be leveling off.

Uh, try to open a NYT, or a UK newspaper or online resource. If you don't recognize a clear cut increase in craziness, then I just don't know what to say. Nothing is more clear, we have entered a multi-century cycle top in which London is burning, OWS, governments are overthrown, disparity in wealth has never been higher, the constitution has been raped and thrown in the mud. ETC.

These are all relevant to discussions on nuclear energy and it's role in feeding and ever increase Demand for power to run more air-conditioners, in the midst of incredible governmental capture and play out of human greed. Nothing happens in a vacuum, all is one, and we are set-up for a Whoopin'

 

[nikkkom]

Pollution in China
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/pollution-in-china.html

China is catching up to the West. West also went though the period of pollution increase, and then fixed the problem by paying attention to emissions. China will (hopefully) do the same.

I don't see any particular increase of "craziness" since we went from 4bn to 7bn. Moreover, growth seems to be leveling off.

Uh, try to open a NYT, or a UK newspaper or online resource. If you don't recognize a clear cut increase in craziness, then I just don't know what to say. Nothing is more clear, we have entered a multi-century cycle top in which London is burning, OWS, governments are overthrown, disparity in wealth has never been higher, the constitution has been raped and thrown in the mud. ETC.

London never experienced riots before? Really?
OWS is a classic case of people executing their democratic right to peacefully protest (even though I mostly disagree with them). What's the problem?
Governments are overthrown? You mean, Arabic distatorships are overthrown? Why is that bad?

Disparity in wealth has never been higher? Do you remember that SLAVERY was widespread on this planed not so long ago? How about comparing to THAT level of disparity in wealth?

 

[steve olsen]

China is catching up to the West. West also went though the period of pollution increase, and then fixed the problem by paying attention to emissions. China will (hopefully) do the same.



London never experienced riots before? Really?
OWS is a classic case of people executing their democratic right to peacefully protest (even though I mostly disagree with them). What's the problem?
Governments are overthrown? You mean, Arabic distatorships are overthrown? Why is that bad?

Disparity in wealth has never been higher? Do you remember that SLAVERY was widespread on this planed not so long ago? How about comparing to THAT level of disparity in wealth?

We are at a major turning point, our ability to recognize a sea change will lead to good, OK, bad, or disaster. We are pointed toward disaster.

 

[clancy688]

Shutdown leaves Japan with six nuclear reactors up

TOKYO -(MarketWatch)- Kyushu Electric Power Co. said Monday that it shut the No. 4 reactor at its Genkai nuclear power station on Japan's western island of Kyushu for planned maintenance.

With the closure, only six of Japan's 54 reactors remain in operation.

-- Kyushu Electric shuts a reactor for maintenance, leaving Japan with only six reactors in operation

-- Japan's power supply may tighten further, with three more reactors going offline in January

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shutdown-leaves-japan-with-six-nuclear-reactors-up-2011-12-25

One third of their power generation gone. And they are still able to meet the basic requirements of their civilization.
In my opinion that's a pretty strong argument against all those "without nuclear power there'll be blackouts all over the place!" comments.

Are they importing electricity from Korea or Russia? Is that even possible? You'd probably need a couple of HVDC lines.
And if they are not importing, how are they able to cope with that loss of power? I didn't hear anything about new rolling blackouts or reduced lighting in Tokio.

 

[steve olsen]

Shutdown leaves Japan with six nuclear reactors up

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shutdown-leaves-japan-with-six-nuclear-reactors-up-2011-12-25

One third of their power generation gone. And they are still able to meet the basic requirements of their civilization.
In my opinion that's a pretty strong argument against all those "without nuclear power there'll be blackouts all over the place!" comments.

Are they importing electricity from Korea or Russia? Is that even possible? You'd probably need a couple of HVDC lines.
And if they are not importing, how are they able to cope with that loss of power? I didn't hear anything about new rolling blackouts or reduced lighting in Tokio.

I have famiily in Japan, there are heavy lighting reductions, everywhere, in the subways 50% delamping, and curtailed use of aircon higher setpoints...BUT, it is not that bad, just an inconvenience, not a disastrous lack of power. Also, not good, but economic activity is down

They are running only 1/9 th of their reactors, they are not buying power across ocean

 

[jim hardy]

when it's that tight, an unplanned outage at one plant is likely to cause real rolling blackouts.

if you hear of "voltage reduction" , things are getting desperate for the utility.

 

[Gary7]

Japan is increasing coal-based power generation (coal sourced mostly from Australia, but some from China), and I have no doubt that Japan is increasing petroleum consumption to compensate for loss of nearly 20% of their electricity-generating capacity. This is one of the reasons why the price of oil has remained stubbornly high despite a massive global economic slowdown.

These are not without consequences. The negative effects of burning coal are well understood, and increased reliance on oil will cause even more rapid depletion of already depleted oil reserves (not to mention increased dependence on atavistic, tribal dictatorships), bringing us closer to predicted disruptions due to peak oil.

The good side of this is that people are learning to live with less, and producers of consumer goods are developing ever more efficient appliances. Hopefully this will also spur Japan to establish a sort of "Manhattan Project" for renewable/green energy, whereby they can emerge nuclear-free and less reliant on oil producing regimes. But in the short term, there are threats of power shortages, and Japan is bringing decomissioned coal-fired plants back online. You can check daily projected power consumption at this site

http://www.tepco.co.jp/forecast/index-j.html

Gary 7 (from Tokyo)

 

[steve olsen]

when it's that tight, an unplanned outage at one plant is likely to cause real rolling blackouts.

if you hear of "voltage reduction" , things are getting desperate for the utility.

Right, no idea what kind of rolling reserve they are able to keep on hand.

 

[steve olsen]

Japan is increasing coal-based power generation (coal sourced mostly from Australia, but some from China), and I have no doubt that Japan is increasing petroleum consumption to compensate for loss of nearly 20% of their electricity-generating capacity. This is one of the reasons why the price of oil has remained stubbornly high despite a massive global economic slowdown.

These are not without consequences. The negative effects of burning coal are well understood, and increased reliance on oil will cause even more rapid depletion of already depleted oil reserves (not to mention increased dependence on atavistic, tribal dictatorships), bringing us closer to predicted disruptions due to peak oil.

The good side of this is that people are learning to live with less, and producers of consumer goods are developing ever more efficient appliances. Hopefully this will also spur Japan to establish a sort of "Manhattan Project" for renewable/green energy, whereby they can emerge nuclear-free and less reliant on oil producing regimes. But in the short term, there are threats of power shortages, and Japan is bringing decomissioned coal-fired plants back online. You can check daily projected power consumption at this site

http://www.tepco.co.jp/forecast/index-j.html

Gary 7 (from Tokyo)

They still have T12 lamp all over Tokyo! Go to T8 and T5. Even LED is coming into reality of pricing.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20111228/0910_gikai.html Fukushima prefecture assembly passed a motion requesting Goshi Hosono to retract his statement saying the accident itself had been "brought under control". On 16 December he said: "as the reactors have come to "cold shutdown", the accident itself has been brought under control". The motion will be presented to Prime Minister Noda and Industry minister Edano.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20111228/0910_gijiroku.html NHK requested the public release of the conference minutes of the accident response headquarters that was set up on March 15 between the government and Tepco in Tepco's Tokyo main office. But there isn't any. The NISA said: "as it was meant as an information sharing measure, no conference minutes were taken, nor any sound record". According to a specialist, this will hinder the study and the learning of the lessons from this accident.

 

[zapperzero]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20111228/0910_gijiroku.html no conference minutes were taken, nor any sound record"

that's very convenient, is it not? We will probably get at something like the truth from the memoirs of those involved - if we live that long.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T111227003729.htm [English] "NISA 'powerless to handle severe accident' / Interim report: Agency merely urged TEPCO to provide information, failed to control situation"

 

[tsutsuji]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/perspectives/editorial/news/20111227p2a00m0na002000c.html [English] "Editorial: More detailed information needed in final report on nuclear crisis" "The interim report [...] should clarify why these entities [NISA, etc...] have become so incompetent". "The failure to clarify the subjects of sentences and vague wording obscured the essence of the report."

 

[clancy688]

I think that fits here quite well:

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/01/nuclear-options/

Do the Math
Using physics and estimation to assess energy, growth, options—by Tom Murphy

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=fukushima&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

look at the distribution by countries
Fukushima was a very big deal... in Germany

 

[zapperzero]

J-gov to push for more food exports
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120110006217.htm

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.shimbun.denki.or.jp/en/news/20120111_02.html
"The Japanese government intends to limit the service life of nuclear power plants in Japan to 40 years."
In other news, choco-rations increase to 40 grams.
Was it not 40 years before?

 

[clancy688]

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=fukushima&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

look at the distribution by countries
Fukushima was a very big deal... in Germany

Fixed: http://www.google.com/trends/?q=fukushima,+福島&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

Scroll down and compare the "Regions" chart.

Of course you don't get many results in Japan. Japanese people are probably searching for "
福島" and not for "fukushima". ;)

 

[zapperzero]

Fixed: http://www.google.com/trends/?q=fukushima,+福島&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

Scroll down and compare the "Regions" chart.

Of course you don't get many results in Japan. Japanese people are probably searching for "
福島" and not for "fukushima". ;)

Certainly. I meant that it seems to have been a much bigger deal in Germany than in France, the UK or the US. Which is, to me, rather surprising. Comparing the two in Google trends shows the Japanese version had almost equal search volume to the latin one.

 

[clancy688]

German people are and have always been very "sensitive" (the term used in other, more pro-nuke countries is "hysterical") towards nuclear power.
Then we got our share of the Chernobyl fallout, which's certainly nothing compared to Belarus or the Ukraine, but at that time, we were probably one of the closest affected democratic countries. Kids were not allowed to play outside, contaminated food... it's probably not so different to what's going on in many Japanese prefectures.
That single nuclear accident created a whole generation of anti-nuclear people, most of which are still living today. Every time a CASTOR (German acronym for dry cask storage) rolled through Germany, tens of thousands of people demonstrated against nuclear power plants.
Our fourth-biggest (now third-biggest, thanks to Fukushima) political party, The Greens, formed itself to a big part from the anti-nuclear-movement.

That's the first half of why Fukushima was such a big deal in Germany. The second half is all about timing:

In 2000, the then governing coalition of SPD (socialists) and Greens decided a phase out of nuclear power, an accompanying bill was passed in 2002. From January 2000 on, nuclear power plants were only allowed to produce further 2.62 million GWh. Based on that agreement, the last NPP was expected to go offline in 2021

In fall 2010, the since fall 2009 governing coalition of CDU (christian conservatives) and FDP (liberals) added to the above mentioned 2.62 million GWh another 1.8 million GWh. That's basically 12 more years of operation. Needless to say that the opposition (Greens, SPD, leftists) was furious. As well as a big chunk of the German citizens.
Governments are elected for four years, so with another three years in power, they probably calculated on the short memory of the voters.
But then, just half a year later, Fukushima blew up right into their faces. Right when there were three major elections only two weeks away. So they panicked and did one of the most stupidest things I've ever seen in my life.
It took them not even a WEEK to phase out the phase out of the phase out, removing their lifetime extension of 2010 and shutting down the seven oldest NPPs because of "safety concerns". I don't know what may have changed in those six months (except three meltdowns of course), but back in fall 2010 those plants were "perfectly safe". I can't imagine anything worse to do if you don't want to lose your credibility. Except declaring outright that one can't trust you.
Apparently, many Germans had the same idea, and then the obvious happened. Especially the FDP totally lost in all those elections, not even gaining enough votes to secure seats in those three state parliaments, while the Greens even doubled their share of the votes in one of the most conservative states (Baden-Württemberg).

In Germany, Fukushima wasn't just a major disaster. It actively changed the political landscape of our whole country.

 

[Yamanote]

It took them not even a WEEK to phase out the phase out of the phase out, removing their lifetime extension of 2010 and shutting down the seven oldest NPPs because of "safety concerns".

I followed these discussions and I found them ridiculous too.

Anyway, I remember that day In April 1986, as if it was yesterday. I looked up to the sky and watched black clouds coming from the east, minutes later it began to rain and we received all the fancy stuff from Chernobyl...
Taking Wikipedia as a source, the contamination with Cs137 from Chernbobyl in Austria was within a range of 18,7 kBq/m² to 200 kBq/m².

Therefore I a) understand the situation of the people in Japan and b) reserve the right for me to have an ambivalent opinion about nuclear energy and the way how people deal with it.

 

[nikkkom]

Anyway, I remember that day In April 1986, as if it was yesterday. I looked up to the sky and watched black clouds coming from the east, minutes later it began to rain and we received all the fancy stuff from Chernobyl...
Taking Wikipedia as a source, the contamination with Cs137 from Chernbobyl in Austria was within a range of 18,7 kBq/m² to 200 kBq/m².

Way too high numbers.

All areas with more than one Curie per km^2 (which is 37 kBq/m^2) are inside Ukraine, Belorus and Russia. See, for example, this map:

http://astroarts.punt.nl/upload/Ker...23_uur_Moskou_tijd,_radioactieve_zones_78.jpg

I have a much bigger map with data for December 1989 and it shows about the same: some isolated 1 Curie spots almost reached Latvia and Moldova, but I highly doubt Austria had anything close to that. Maybe in the very first days, with short-lived stuff like Iodine...EDIT: Looks like I'm wrong. Austria indeed has a "honor" to have a patch of ~40-100 kBq/m^2. See here:

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/radiation-from-chernobyl