- #36
Ken G
Gold Member
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For me, the resolution of this is to get away from the idea that "there is a probability" of something happening. Instead, simply treat the purpose of a probability to be an assessment based on your knowledge. I cannot think of a single physical situation where there actually "is a probability" of something happening in some absolute sense (that isn't trivially 1 or 0)-- can you? I wager that any example you give there, I could show how you are simply connecting a set of assumptions with a set of possible outcomes based on those assumptions-- in short, you will always be talking about information. I think this is an important point, even in classical situations like playing with a deck of cards-- there never is any such thing as "the probability I will get a straight flush", there is only what I know about that deck (or think I know), and how I assess my chances in the long run. It's true that a classical deck supports a concept of "how the cards lie" prior to the deal, but the fact that the player never uses that concept shows that's not what they need probabilities for. So Alice "has a probability," and Bob "has a probability," and that's it.stevendaryl said:If it's just a matter of Alice updating her knowledge of Bob's situation, then I would think that would mean that Bob had 0% chance before Alice's measurement, even if Alice didn't know that. Which to me implies that Bob's result was predetermined, at least for that particular measurement choice, which is sort of a hidden-variables conclusion.